Mega Thread 2014 Free Agency and Trade discussion

[schmuttt]

Doesn't mean much, but anyway.

Was talking to the brother of a current GWS player and he said whilst Jeremy Cameron is likely to stay with the giants, O'Rourke is basically a lock to come back to victoria and a couple may follow him.

 

[Demon 16]

Doesn't mean much, but anyway.

Was talking to the brother of a current GWS player and he said whilst Jeremy Cameron is likely to stay with the giants, O'Rourke is basically a lock to come back to victoria and a couple may follow him.

Pretty tough to get a gauge on O'Rourkes value.

Obviously a very recent high pick, but hasn't done much so far.

I think I'd be slightly disappointed if we offered up one of our early picks for him in a similar deal to last year.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

It would be our fourth in 8 years.

4th? 2008 and 2009 are the only years in which we won the spoon. We finished 14th in 2007.

 

[Demon 16]

4th? 2008 and 2009 are the only years in which we won the spoon. We finished 14th in 2007.

Sorry, 3rd.

The point of my posts still stands though.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Sorry, 3rd.

The point of my posts still stands though.

All good, just needed to know if there was another year of my life that I needed to purge all memory of.

 

[IanW]

Doesn't mean much, but anyway.

Was talking to the brother of a current GWS player and he said whilst Jeremy Cameron is likely to stay with the giants, O'Rourke is basically a lock to come back to victoria and a couple may follow him.

Makes sense to me - if you're getting a regular game at GWS, you're part of a core that has matched the best sides around this year. If you arent, then there's no reason to stay.

Which clubs the players go to will depend on personal terms IMO - where are they likely to get games, and who is prepared to give them how much money.

Of course, if someone offers an regular player a stonking huge bag of cash, then all bets are off, as even a 'loyal' player may get stroppy at how his club is clearly 'undervaluing' him.

 

[Cannon82]

This was on the AFL website: 30 Free Agents left (2 restricted)

Only person as listed as sure to go is Frawley, naturally.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

If we do end up with picks 2 and 3 (God forbid) and we can't organise a trade for one of them, and Patrick McCartin slips past #1 because Peter Wright goes first, I'd be tempted to take him along with Petracca/Brayshaw. Not so sold on Wright but McCartin is a freak. I know two mids serves our purpose better but with a hopefully firing Trengove and Toumpas to come back in to go with Tyson, Viney, Salem, etc, McCartin and Hogan could form a lethal duo in a few years.

 

[Demon 16]

If we do end up with picks 2 and 3 (God forbid) and we can't organise a trade for one of them, and Patrick McCartin slips past #1 because Peter Wright goes first, I'd be tempted to take him along with Petracca/Brayshaw. Not so sold on Wright but McCartin is a freak. I know two mids serves our purpose better but with a hopefully firing Trengove and Toumpas to come back in to go with Tyson, Viney, Salem, etc, McCartin and Hogan could form a lethal duo in a few years.

Petracca and Brayshaw being 2 x big bodied, classy mids that would be almost ready to go is very, very tempting.

But I'm actually coming around to the thought of Petracca and Wright myself.

Mids will be available with other picks, and next year - and you kind of get 2 for 1 with Wright, in that he's a tall marking full forward, but also a good ruckman - and we could certainly do with both of those.

 

[Cannon82]

Not so sold on Wright

Agree. I wouldn't spend a top 20 pick on him - how many times do you hear about some kid who could either be an elite ruck or tall forward and so often ends up being neither.

Looking at ruck draftees over recent years...

2012: Grundy (#18), can't be bothered with the rest as I don't know who they are.
2011: Longer (#8), Witts (#67), Blicavs (R#34)
2010: Gorringe (#10), Lycett (#29), Derickx (#63), Giles (R#3, again), Phillips (R#4)
2009: Gawn (#34), Vardy (#42), Daw (R#9), Casboult (R#44)
2008: Naitanui (#2), Vickery (#8), Cordy (#14), McKernan (#28), Clarke (#37), Redden (#54), Pyke (R#57)
2007: Kreuzer (#1), McEvoy (#9), Lobbe (#16), Simpson (#34), Martin (P#3), Bellchambers (P#8), Spencer (R#35), Mumford (R#57)
2006: Leuenberger (#4), Sellar (#14), Hampson (#17), Renouf (#24), Tippett (#32), Goldstein (#37), Westhoff (#71), White (#79), Jacobs (R#1)
2005: Ryder (#7), Clark (#9), Bailey (#18), West (#31), Warnock (#42), Giles (#70), Graham (R#5)
2004: Roughead (#2), Meesen (#8), Wood (#18), Ackland (#33), Maric (#40), Taylor (#53), Griffin (R#21)
2003: Blake (#38), Hudson (#58)
2002: McIntosh (#9), Laycock (#10), Minson (#20), Johnson (#24)
2001: Hale (#7), Seaby (#22), Jamar (R#6), Sandilands (R#33)
2000: Sporn (#11), Petrie (#23), Charman (#29), Skipper (#70), Cox (R#?)


So what that proves is that I should stop bringing my laptop to work. Obviously I've missed a few, but seems you're just as likely to get a decent ruck with a late or rookie pick as you are with a top 20 selection, and even then it'll probably be at least 5 years before you see the benefit. The two best ruckmen of the last decade both came off the rookie list (Cox and Sandilands).

Better to go for a sure thing with your high draft picks.

 

[Blackas87]

Agree. I wouldn't spend a top 20 pick on him - how many times do you hear about some kid who could either be an elite ruck or tall forward and so often ends up being neither.

Looking at ruck draftees over recent years...

2012: Grundy (#18), can't be bothered with the rest as I don't know who they are.
2011: Longer (#8), Witts (#67), Blicavs (R#34)
2010: Gorringe (#10), Lycett (#29), Derickx (#63), Giles (R#3, again), Phillips (R#4)
2009: Gawn (#34), Vardy (#42), Daw (R#9), Casboult (R#44)
2008: Naitanui (#2), Vickery (#8), Cordy (#14), McKernan (#28), Clarke (#37), Redden (#54), Pyke (R#57)
2007: Kreuzer (#1), McEvoy (#9), Lobbe (#16), Simpson (#34), Martin (P#3), Bellchambers (P#8), Spencer (R#35), Mumford (R#57)
2006: Leuenberger (#4), Sellar (#14), Hampson (#17), Renouf (#24), Tippett (#32), Goldstein (#37), Westhoff (#71), White (#79), Jacobs (R#1)
2005: Ryder (#7), Clark (#9), Bailey (#18), West (#31), Warnock (#42), Giles (#70), Graham (R#5)
2004: Roughead (#2), Meesen (#8), Wood (#18), Ackland (#33), Maric (#40), Taylor (#53), Griffin (R#21)
2003: Blake (#38), Hudson (#58)
2002: McIntosh (#9), Laycock (#10), Minson (#20), Johnson (#24)
2001: Hale (#7), Seaby (#22), Jamar (R#6), Sandilands (R#33)
2000: Sporn (#11), Petrie (#23), Charman (#29), Skipper (#70), Cox (R#?)


So what that proves is that I should stop bringing my laptop to work. Obviously I've missed a few, but seems you're just as likely to get a decent ruck with a late or rookie pick as you are with a top 20 selection, and even then it'll probably be at least 5 years before you see the benefit. The two best ruckmen of the last decade both came off the rookie list (Cox and Sandilands).

Better to go for a sure thing with your high draft picks.

Most of those top 10 ruckman have become regular players in best 22's for their respective clubs, only Meesen didn't make it and Gorringe still has his career in front of him. They might not all be stars but their % of making it is higher than rookie selections.

And drafting mids is also not drafting a sure thing, our club should know that.

 

[Cannon82]

Most of those top 10 ruckman have become regular players in best 22's for their respective clubs, only Meesen didn't make it and Gorringe still has his career in front of him. They might not all be stars but their % of making it is higher than rookie selections.

The AFL ratings are s**t but I've had a squiz at the top 10 for rucks anyway. Shows who has consistently been playing for their clubs in the last season or two, if nothing else.
1. Goldstein (2006, #37)
2. Naitanui (2008, #2)
3. Minson (2002, #20)
4. McEvoy (2007, #9)
5. Sandilands (2001, R#33)
6. Jacobs (2006, R#1)
7. Maric (2004, #40)
8. Ryder (2005, #7)
9. Mumford (2007, R#57)
10. Cox (2000, R#?)

4 out of 10 rookie picks and 4 out of 10 who've changed clubs. Next two in the rankings are Giles and Pyke. Players like Leuenberger, Kreuzer, McIntosh, etc may not be duds by definition, but they're a sure thing to spend at least a good stretch in the doctor's office and probably evens to break down and miss the rest of the season. They might be "best 22", but McEvoy was kept out of the side by Ceglar, Vickery has been in and out of the Tigers team, Clark had one good, consistent season before we picked him up, etc etc. Talls are more of a risk, take longer to develop and are harder to judge. We need to nail our draft picks so I'd like it if we avoided the speculative picks early doors.

 

[Demon 16]

2 really good posts above.

I'm certain you could make similar points using midfield examples - and you've also got to consider that Wright is a good forward who can ruck, rather than a good ruck who can go forward. I think that makes a big difference.

 

[djpaulydemon]

No Priority Pick please. Part of developing a winning mindset is instilling the belief that the team can beat anyone by themselves through their efforts only, not relying on external factors going their way.

We've already been handed a lot of concessions from the AFL. With our coaching staff we will be able to develop the later picks a lot better than the past 8 years.

 

[LeverPuller]

My attitude is PP all the way based on form. Even if you take out 08 and 09 because of the PP we are still, comprehensively, one of the worst sides to play AFL - and that's with this year's improvement.

 

[Tulip]

My attitude is PP all the way based on form. Even if you take out 08 and 09 because of the PP we are still, comprehensively, one of the worst sides to play AFL - and that's with this year's improvement.

You don't get a PP when you've improved your win rate by 200%.

Petracca would be the man for me, unless GWS somehow engineer a deal for pick 1/finish bottom.

If Chip leaves and we are well compensated, Petracca and McCartin/Wright/Durdin.

Word is that Brayshaw may slip to around 10, but so did Wines...

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Brayshaw shouldn't slip to 10, he doesn't have the kicking queries Wines had - I'd be very surprised.

 

[Cannon82]

I don't like Brayshaw's head. It's like a perfectly cylindrical Milo tin that needs a good kicking. I know you probably don't think that's relevant but it really, really should be.

 

[Klyntonius]

They don't just hand them out based on W/L records, that's just part of the criteria.

They'd look at all of our performances and see that with a little luck there was about 5 or 6 games that we could have won, we are no chance of a PP and nor should we be.

It's also embarrassing that people are talking about it.

Alternatively, with a little bit of opposition competence we could've lost all four games we won. We are still a horrendously bad team, just one that's fights harder than previous years. I think we'll get some form of a priority or compensatory pick if we either finish with 5 wins or less and/or Frawley leaves. Whether it's early or late first round will be the question. Frawley stays and 6+ wins and there's no PP. That's what I think anyway.

 

[maxmustard]

I don't like Brayshaw's head. It's like a perfectly cylindrical Milo tin that needs a good kicking. I know you probably don't think that's relevant but it really, really should be.

Just googled him, confirmed Lego man.

 

[LeverPuller]

You don't get a PP when you've improved your win rate by 200%.

Petracca would be the man for me, unless GWS somehow engineer a deal for pick 1/finish bottom.

If Chip leaves and we are well compensated, Petracca and McCartin/Wright/Durdin.

Word is that Brayshaw may slip to around 10, but so did Wines...

38 wins over 8 years - win rate of 4.5 games per year for eight years.

Or, even better, 26 wins over 5 years - win rate of 4.2 games per year since we last got any AFL assistance.

This is one of the worst runs any club has ever seen. Ever.

 

[Dez!]

Alternatively, with a little bit of opposition competence we could've lost all four games we won. We are still a horrendously bad team, just one that's fights harder than previous years. I think we'll get some form of a priority or compensatory pick if we either finish with 5 wins or less and/or Frawley leaves. Whether it's early or late first round will be the question. Frawley stays and 6+ wins and there's no PP. That's what I think anyway.

We aren't a horrendously bad team, we're a young team prone to inconsistency which is steadily improving.

We WILL NOT and SHOULD NOT get any form of priority pick*, we are no longer incompetent enough to warrant one.

*Compensation pick for losing Frawley (if we do, which I'm still not convinced that we will lose him) is different.

 

[Dez!]

38 wins over 8 years - win rate of 4.5 games per year for eight years.

Or, even better, 26 wins over 5 years - win rate of 4.2 games per year since we last got any AFL assistance.

This is one of the worst runs any club has ever seen. Ever.

They aren't going to look at 8 years or 5 years, they'll just look at the difference between 2013 and 2014 and see just how far we've come in terms of competing and winning.

 

[Demon 16]

We aren't a horrendously bad team, we're a young team prone to inconsistency which is steadily improving.

We WILL NOT and SHOULD NOT get any form of priority pick*, we are no longer incompetent enough to warrant one.

*Compensation pick for losing Frawley (if we do, which I'm still not convinced that we will lose him) is different.

I'm still concerned about smaller clubs being able to break the 'cycle' without a priority pick system - particularly now that free agency is here.

 

[Demon 16]

They aren't going to look at 8 years or 5 years, they'll just look at the difference between 2013 and 2014 and see just how far we've come in terms of competing and winning.

They should look at 8 or 5 years, because when a side spends that long at the bottom of the ladder, it's going to cause even further problems down the track when that clubs generation of supporters is half of what the successful clubs are.