Preview Geelong at the 2014 AFL National Draft, Thursday 27 November

[Pure_Ownage]

As silly as it may sound having just traded in a couple more talls, Durdin would be hard to pass up if he was around at 10. The guy was rated in the top handful of prospects until he broke his hand during the year. With JK he would assure our key defensive stocks for a decade. It's not often we would have access to arguably the best young key defender in the draft.

I'd probably lean towards a mid with our first - either Weller, Laverde, Ahern or Pickett - but I won't be disappointed if Wells calls out Durdin's name.

Whilst we are jam packed with talls at the moment we will lose Simpson, McIntosh, Brown, Lonergan and Rivers all within possibly 12 months. Then we will be crying out for a couple more. If we go early now, sure up our KP stocks for the next 5 or more years, then just go for mids the next 2-3 drafts.

I'd be using our latter picks on the likes of Bampton, Gore, Webb, Rose, Wigg and Miller.

I don't mind Durdin at 10 but I think the debate's irrelevant because he's unlikely to be there, with Frost and Jaksch gone and Moore down it's hard not to see GWS taking him at 6 or 7.

Personally I wouldn't take a tall though, after our trade period we now have too many tall forwards which means we are either trading some of them next year and/or developing them into defenders, and so because we haven't seen how that will go yet we don't know what we need.

For example if Walker makes it in defence it's probably as a gorilla type lockdown defender in the Lonergan mould who takes a big key forward but offers little rebound. So if that happens we don't need a gorilla KPD but we need a classy third tall type who can take intercept marks because we will lose Boris and Rivers next year and they are two of the best in the league at it. Does Blicavs make it as that type of KPD? If he does we don't need that player then, but we need a big key defender.

What if they both make it but Simpson and McIntosh never pay again (I know I'm a pessimist but I reckon this is fairly plausible) and our plan to turn Stanley into a ruck is a flop? Now obviously we wouldnt delist a guy we paid 21 for, but then we'd need to put him back forward and get another ruckman. If Vardy's body doesn't hold up we might want another forward/ruck covering option. And next year is make or break for Hamling so by the end of it we will know if he makes it and if so where.

Apart from the fact that our midfield depth is lacking and with limited list spots we need to prioritise it, I think there are too many questions over our existing talls for us to know what type of tall we need. I think it is better to wait until the end of next year when most of those questions will be answered, and then we know what type of tall we need to draft.

 

[Heckler]

Here's what I'm hoping we go with come draft day:

Pick 55 Aidan Anderson – Medium Forward (183cm, 82kg)
Player comparison: Jamie Elliott
Anderson is known as a goal-kicking machine. As a junior for University Cougars in the Darling Downs league (QLD)he tallied 115 and 117 goals in seasons 2007 and 2008. His biggest strength is his smarts, he knows exactly where to position himself, where to lead, where to run, when to kick. He’s extremely agile with his evasive skills being excellent along with his ability to change direction, he has a serious bag of tricks. Kevin Sheehan described Anderson as Western Australia’s "Shining Light" at the Under 18 AFL National Championships.

Nice post with links to the video.

I was very impressed with Aidan Anderson.
He really knows where the goals are.
Goal scoring medium size players are hard to find
Teams tend to rest their on-ballers forward
I think a specialist forward is better value.
It forces the opposition to man up tight on him
This helps helps key forwards compete one on one.
Aidan would give us a very potent forward structure
Would love to see this kid in the hoops
I suspect he will go before pick 55
Definitely worth taking him with pick 47

 

[chris9753]

I don't think we can underestimate the difference free agency has made.

I read somewhere (I've forgotten the source) that midfielders play earlier than talls but they also, on average, finish their football career earlier. Free agency means that players can now leave after 8 years (and I think the plsyer's association is pushing for 6 years) so does this decrease the value of talls and project players. Why would a club put years into developing a player when they can leave shortly after becoming productive? Is it smarter to draft or trade for ready made talls and draft mids? Is this what we have been doing? Several years ago we saw potential draft ruckman drop in value and be picked lower. Has this trend now extended to tall forwards and defenders? It will be interesting to see in this draft what types of players go earlier than expected and which drop.

Or are we better being contrarian? If we assume that other clubs are going to do this, are we better of choosing one of the talls that drop (if this happens), give them a few years to develop, and then rely on our "culture" to keep them.

This will be an interesting draft, not only because of the players we choose, but also to see what new trends are developing!

 

[meto]

There's a few there that we need to see more of Lang, Jansen, Hartman and Thurlow, so there's a few extra mids to go around

I don't think we can underestimate the difference free agency has made.

I read somewhere (I've forgotten the source) that midfielders play earlier than talls but they also, on average, finish their football career earlier. Free agency means that players can now leave after 8 years (and I think the plsyer's association is pushing for 6 years) so does this decrease the value of talls and project players. Why would a club put years into developing a player when they can leave shortly after becoming productive? Is it smarter to draft or trade for ready made talls and draft mids? Is this what we have been doing? Several years ago we saw potential draft ruckman drop in value and be picked lower. Has this trend now extended to tall forwards and defenders? It will be interesting to see in this draft what types of players go earlier than expected and which drop.

Or are we better being contrarian? If we assume that other clubs are going to do this, are we better of choosing one of the talls that drop (if this happens), give them a few years to develop, and then rely on our "culture" to keep them.

This will be an interesting draft, not only because of the players we choose, but also to see what new trends are developing!

Posting theories with no legitimate source hey Chris!...couldn't resist, hope you did a good job on the lawns.

 

[CatRiot]

Lukas Webb is the player that I think has enormous upside as a classy utility.

He knows how to mark, kick a goal, has a good side-step, and his left peg can be launched low, hard, and long. I like him as a utility prospect and he'll be in range with picks 47, 55 or 60.

He's a versatile size too, 186cm, 80kg.

 

[CatRiot]

Nice post with links to the video.

I was very impressed with Aidan Anderson.
He really knows where the goals are.
Goal scoring medium size players are hard to find
Teams tend to rest their on-ballers forward
I think a specialist forward is better value.
It forces the opposition to man up tight on him
This helps helps key forwards compete one on one.
Aidan would give us a very potent forward structure
Would love to see this kid in the hoops
I suspect he will go before pick 55
Definitely worth taking him with pick 47

Really like this prospect, very exciting, his evasion is elite and I think he could make it in the big league. Just wonder if he can develop a tank so that could rotate through the middle or push up the ground as a high half forward.

 

[rooie]

does free agency and the fact contracts are now meaningless open up the ability to focus on drafting mids whilst trading for ready made talls?

don't waste 3 or 4 years developing key forwards or rucks, its a waste of resources. Just keep your eye on ones you think will turn out ok, stay in their ear for a few years so that when they are ready, just bring them in either through a trade for a few of your smalls that are excess, or through free agency.

so trade for clark and stanley, but pick up 3 or 4 flankers/mids etc. on draft day.

worked out well with Ottens, maybe we can make it work with clark and stanley too?

think about it, if you want to stay competitive, can you afford to carry 3 or 4 18 or 19 year old 200cm guys who are years away from being strong enough and smart enough to dominate like hawkins can? think of the crap he copped until the 2011 finals series. he even got demoted in 2011 to the VFL for a few weeks if memory serves. Ottens was rubbished in his first year at the club leading to Bombers 'ALL OF YOU!' speech.

I think simpson, mcintosh are gone end of 2015, brown maybe this year, and vardy surely has 2015 to string some games and fitness together or we have to cut him, menzel and cowan too. So bring in Stanley, Clark, big irish whatever his name is, maybe use one of the 4 picks we might take to the draft on a 190-195cm defender, but primarily snap up some solid mids who can play straight away, then if we feel in 3 or 4 years time they are expendable to gain a new tall, (like boyd from the doggies ) we send them a few moloneys.

i will state i have been drinking so above might make no sense at all, but i feel if i have a few more i might crack the davinci scott code.

 

[WA Cat]

Eagles list manager, Craig Vozzo, was on radio overhere earlier today. Looks like Eagles would like to add more pace to their squad and Pickett was mentioned in the interview as someone who could assist the Eagles given his speed. Vozzo added that Pickett is a very good kid with a "great" character.

Brad Lloyd from Freo has been quoted that the Dockers will look at tall key position players and Marchbank has been mentioned as a possible pick.

 

[Warsaw Winder]

We need a good Draft crop this year. Almost tempted to go the whole cliche, pick the best player, regardless of size or position... but nah, we need some bloody mids!!!

 

[4quarter_cat]

I think that with picks in the top ten you pick the best player you can regardless of position anyway. Only because they have the potential to become one of the best players in the league in their position.

 

[strauchnyy]

The more I think about it the more it looks like both Goddard and durdin will be available at our pick.

I think laverde and weller will go to pies and GC.

Now there is talk of gws going for Pickett.

With durdin and Goddard on the table, I'd still go Goddard because he is better at stopping his opponent whilst also creating counter attacks, and has more runs on the board (with durdin having a poorer year with his best footy in the ruck, not KPD).

Weller or Goddard are the 2 I hope for.

 

[GFrost]

LITTLE-KNOWN South Australian Sam Durdin could be Fremantle’s next key position prodigy through next month’s national draft.
The Dockers are looking at drafting Durdin on November 27 as they look to replace champions Matthew Pavlich and Luke McPharlin.
And West Coast’s plan to snare nippy South Fremantle goal-shark Jarrod Pickett has hit a snag with expansion franchise Greater Western Sydney or Melbourne set to pounce on the West Australian.
Eagles talent scouts are known to be keen on Pickett with their first pick at 11 after the lightning quick forward played five senior games with South late into this season.
But Pickett has stormed into early draft selection calculations at Melbourne where the Demons hold picks 2 and 3, while the Giants have 4, 6 and 7 after vigorous trading last week landed critical draft positions.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...uding-sam-durdin/story-fni5f6su-1227094794975

 

[rocker_oz33]

At face value this draft looks pretty strong early eg with some good talls and strong mids and teams like GWS and Melb could stock up with there early picks.

 

[meto]

The more I think about it the more it looks like both Goddard and durdin will be available at our pick.

I think laverde and weller will go to pies and GC.

Now there is talk of gws going for Pickett.

With durdin and Goddard on the table, I'd still go Goddard because he is better at stopping his opponent whilst also creating counter attacks, and has more runs on the board (with durdin having a poorer year with his best footy in the ruck, not KPD).

Weller or Goddard are the 2 I hope for.

I like your logic strauchnyy, I don't see much wrong with either pick (Durdin) but I do see Goddard with a superior defensive edge as you say.
As F2G said, Goddard is every bit as big, he's a very big guy even now, I see fast track development potential there.
They may have their reason's for Durdin all the same.

 

[Bobby_]

I like Goddard's defensive edge as you say meto. Also has some anger about him as he was getting stuck into a few forwards on the highlights tape posted.
Always a good sign seeing a defender trying to get inside their opponents head. He's obviously a confident young man and he's already got an enormous frame who will develop into one hell of a stopper for the next decade.

 

[The rabbi]

At face value this draft looks pretty strong early eg with some good talls and strong mids and teams like GWS and Melb could stock up with there early picks.

And then Victorian sides can raid them in two years when they want out.

 

[meto]

I like Goddard's defensive edge as you say meto. Also has some anger about him as he was getting stuck into a few forwards on the highlights tape posted.
Always a good sign seeing a defender trying to get inside their opponents head. He's obviously a confident young man and he's already got an enormous frame who will develop into one hell of a stopper for the next decade.

I missed that about him (mongrel), is that right?....as long as they don't stuff up this 1st rounder I'll be happy. If it's a smaller type great, as long as we get maximum value this time.
I'm with you on Goddard, but we might be wrong, so many are now screaming go small, Wells might think he has to.

 

[Teriyakicat]

does free agency and the fact contracts are now meaningless open up the ability to focus on drafting mids whilst trading for ready made talls?

don't waste 3 or 4 years developing key forwards or rucks, its a waste of resources. Just keep your eye on ones you think will turn out ok, stay in their ear for a few years so that when they are ready, just bring them in either through a trade for a few of your smalls that are excess, or through free agency.

so trade for clark and stanley, but pick up 3 or 4 flankers/mids etc. on draft day.

worked out well with Ottens, maybe we can make it work with clark and stanley too?

think about it, if you want to stay competitive, can you afford to carry 3 or 4 18 or 19 year old 200cm guys who are years away from being strong enough and smart enough to dominate like hawkins can? think of the crap he copped until the 2011 finals series. he even got demoted in 2011 to the VFL for a few weeks if memory serves. Ottens was rubbished in his first year at the club leading to Bombers 'ALL OF YOU!' speech.

I think simpson, mcintosh are gone end of 2015, brown maybe this year, and vardy surely has 2015 to string some games and fitness together or we have to cut him, menzel and cowan too. So bring in Stanley, Clark, big irish whatever his name is, maybe use one of the 4 picks we might take to the draft on a 190-195cm defender, but primarily snap up some solid mids who can play straight away, then if we feel in 3 or 4 years time they are expendable to gain a new tall, (like boyd from the doggies ) we send them a few moloneys.

i will state i have been drinking so above might make no sense at all, but i feel if i have a few more i might crack the davinci scott code.

I was wondering why you were unusually verbose, rooie.
Some good ideas there- keep it up, mate!

 

[rocker_oz33]

Really depends on which way the club want to go get a keyback now?And get some Wells specials (mids) with the latter picks.
Or get the best mid with our first pick and maybe get a key tall though FA next year.

Pros and cons on both.

 

[Bobby_]

I missed that about him (mongrel), is that right?....as long as they don't stuff up this 1st rounder I'll be happy. If it's a smaller type great, as long as we get maximum value this time.
I'm with you on Goddard, but we might be wrong, so many are now screaming go small, Wells might think he has to.

yes mongrel!

Not sure about smalls, Christensen is an example of smaller bodies in today's midfield, non-stop concussions and too many batterings. Darcy Lang is Kelly's size and physical, Jansen is a Corey proto-type, Motlop is the outside receiver who breaks the lines, Duncan is the outside finisher while Horlin-Smith, Caddy, Selwood and Guthrie are the workhorses inside.

We got rid of the smalls who provided very little chop at the top level, Sheringham, Simpkin, Stringer. Time to recruit ready-made footballers who can make an impact in their first season of footy whether it be midfield or down back.

 

[rocker_oz33]

That Pano feller could fit our needs big strong played though the mids for norwood.He and selwood + caddy can move from guts to half forward could be a good mix.

 

[Turbocat]

I don't mind Durdin at 10 but I think the debate's irrelevant because he's unlikely to be there, with Frost and Jaksch gone and Moore down it's hard not to see GWS taking him at 6 or 7.

Personally I wouldn't take a tall though, after our trade period we now have too many tall forwards which means we are either trading some of them next year and/or developing them into defenders, and so because we haven't seen how that will go yet we don't know what we need.

For example if Walker makes it in defence it's probably as a gorilla type lockdown defender in the Lonergan mould who takes a big key forward but offers little rebound. So if that happens we don't need a gorilla KPD but we need a classy third tall type who can take intercept marks because we will lose Boris and Rivers next year and they are two of the best in the league at it. Does Blicavs make it as that type of KPD? If he does we don't need that player then, but we need a big key defender.

What if they both make it but Simpson and McIntosh never pay again (I know I'm a pessimist but I reckon this is fairly plausible) and our plan to turn Stanley into a ruck is a flop? Now obviously we wouldnt delist a guy we paid 21 for, but then we'd need to put him back forward and get another ruckman. If Vardy's body doesn't hold up we might want another forward/ruck covering option. And next year is make or break for Hamling so by the end of it we will know if he makes it and if so where.

Apart from the fact that our midfield depth is lacking and with limited list spots we need to prioritise it, I think there are too many questions over our existing talls for us to know what type of tall we need. I think it is better to wait until the end of next year when most of those questions will be answered, and then we know what type of tall we need to draft.

As usual , not too much with one can disagree.

My pov is simply we have moved up the 4 spots now , which places us in an area id not thought we would be in , its a wider a choice and a chance to grab a talented tall which is far harder to get than mids.Of course Kolo looks good as was taken at 41. We don't know who will be there at 10 , so I say again I hope forget needs so to speak and grab the most likely type taking talent, upside , rarity to obtain all into account.

But Durdin at ten would be unusual for such good tall. Like Weller as well...and both could be gone.

 

[Turbocat]

Lukas Webb is the player that I think has enormous upside as a classy utility.

He knows how to mark, kick a goal, has a good side-step, and his left peg can be launched low, hard, and long. I like him as a utility prospect and he'll be in range with picks 47, 55 or 60.

He's a versatile size too, 186cm, 80kg.

and another good example of being able to get three handy mids late. They may not be the hot names but there plenty that will be on Wells list I'm sure.

 

[Play by Numbers]

LITTLE-KNOWN South Australian Sam Durdin could be Fremantle’s next key position prodigy through next month’s national draft.
The Dockers are looking at drafting Durdin on November 27 as they look to replace champions Matthew Pavlich and Luke McPharlin.
And West Coast’s plan to snare nippy South Fremantle goal-shark Jarrod Pickett has hit a snag with expansion franchise Greater Western Sydney or Melbourne set to pounce on the West Australian.
Eagles talent scouts are known to be keen on Pickett with their first pick at 11 after the lightning quick forward played five senior games with South late into this season.
But Pickett has stormed into early draft selection calculations at Melbourne where the Demons hold picks 2 and 3, while the Giants have 4, 6 and 7 after vigorous trading last week landed critical draft positions.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...uding-sam-durdin/story-fni5f6su-1227094794975

The only risk for Pickett is he will leave. Has been publicly vocal about it, though maybe not as forceful as Chad wingard in his draft season

 

[Turbocat]

LITTLE-KNOWN South Australian Sam Durdin could be Fremantle’s next key position prodigy through next month’s national draft.
The Dockers are looking at drafting Durdin on November 27 as they look to replace champions Matthew Pavlich and Luke McPharlin.
And West Coast’s plan to snare nippy South Fremantle goal-shark Jarrod Pickett has hit a snag with expansion franchise Greater Western Sydney or Melbourne set to pounce on the West Australian.
Eagles talent scouts are known to be keen on Pickett with their first pick at 11 after the lightning quick forward played five senior games with South late into this season.
But Pickett has stormed into early draft selection calculations at Melbourne where the Demons hold picks 2 and 3, while the Giants have 4, 6 and 7 after vigorous trading last week landed critical draft positions.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...uding-sam-durdin/story-fni5f6su-1227094794975

Picket at 3 or 4 seems early but who knows. I would have thought Lever would fit Melb but perhaps they need mid run as well.

I like Durdin more than Goddard seem more balanced somehow ,something about Goddard reminds me of Watson at Carlton , but he also reminds me a little of Egan so there you go. I think Goddard and Durdin have a bit agro about them.

Kicket coming in is all good for us getting a slider as long as we do not get to fixated on type. With our luck , after bring in Clark and Stanley , McCartin or Wright will slide to 10. Mmm that would be a difficult choice then.