Giro D'Italia 2015

Who will win?

  • Alberto Contadour

    Votes: 5 50.0%
  • Rigoberto Uran

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Richie Porte

    Votes: 3 30.0%
  • Fabio Aru

    Votes: 2 20.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    10

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As expected, the big boys came out to play last night. Keenan & McKenzie were hoping that they'd ride tempo all the way to the top of the climb, allowing Chavez to inherit the maglia rosa from Clarke in the process. That was never going to happen with Contador in the field. Contador might be one of the biggest dope fiends in the peleton, but he's also one of the most attacking riders of the last 20 years. He was never going to sit back and relax, he was always going to attack and see whether or not the others could follow.

By the time the television coverage started a breakaway of 5 riders were 10-11 minutes up the road. It's hard to get a read on the actual timings, because the Giro's GPS motorbikes keep going forwards & backwards all the time. One minute the gap is 10:45, the next it's 11:15 - and that's not because the peleton have lost 30 seconds on the road in that time. The gap came down steadily, to the point where they had around 7 minutes left at the bottom of the climb. Dave & Matt were taking bets on twitter over which of the breakaway riders would win the stage (or be the last one caught).

The breakaway splintered as soon as the climb began. Eventually Lampre's Jan Polanc went clear and soloed to victory. Sebastien Chavanel was the only other breakaway rider to cross the line ahead of the big boys - and he did so by about half a bike length, being caught on the line by the sprinting Aru/Contador/Porte.

The real interest though lay further down the road. Contador attacked with around 7km left to go on the climb. Porte & Aru quickly joined him, with Astana's Mikel Landa joining them as well. Uran didn't even bother trying to follow the attack, losing a further 28 seconds, compounding his losses from the previous day. OGE's Chavez tried to keep up with the attack, but was forced to admit defeat.

With bonus seconds on offer, the big boys sprinted the last 500m of the climb, almost catching Chavanel in the process - he was 450m out when they were at 750m, they all finished together. In the end it was Aru who finished 3rd, claiming the 4 bonus seconds on offer, but there was nothing to separate them at any stage of the climb. It was Contador who climbed into pink though, courtesy of the time gaps established during the Team Time Trial.

It's only stage 5, but this race is already down to just 3 riders - Contador, Porte & Aru. So far the only time gaps have come from the Team Time Trial and Aru's 4 second bonus last night. There have been no time gaps on the open road. There are still 4 other riders within a minute of the lead - Kreuziger (teammate of Contador), Cataldo (teammate of Aru), Chavez (OGE) and Visconti (Movistar), but the reality is that Contador, Porte & Aru have the others covered fairly comfortably. Astana clearly have the strongest team, as was shown by their dominance on stage 4, plus the presence of Landa after Contador's attack last night. Whether that's enough to get Aru over the line is another matter - Contador is a better time trial rider and a match for him in the mountains. It's going to be exciting watching these 3 riders battle it out when we get to the really big mountains.

Tonight's stage is a sprinters' paradise. There's a Cat4 climb early, but the second half of the course is flat as a pancake. Time for the likes of Greipel to shine.
 
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How good is the Giro! Much better than the snooze-fest that has been the Tour in recent years.
Last year's Tour could have been good.. until both Froome & Contador got injured and had to withdraw. After that it was a one-man show, with Nibali being head and shoulders above any of the other contenders.

The two previous years were yawnfests, because we had to watch a UK Postal team that was blatantly doped up to the eyeballs just riding tempo up every mountain. The ultimate in tedium.
 

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I think Uran is still in it, Porte and Uran would of looked at the stage 14 ITT and and felt pretty confident, still a long way till then, can see Sky and Quickstep domestiques saving their legs till the last week. Kiriyienka having won previously on the second last stage is also handy for Richie if he's still up there by then. Aru looks pretty amazing for a guy who had such a bad lead in and apparently lost 5kgs in a week, hard not to skeptical, but in saying that he did attack like this last year as well.
 
I don't think Uran will be close enough for the ITT to make any difference. He's already 1:22 down and the biggest hills they've ridden so far were only Cat2. Unless he has a complete form reversal, he'll be 5+min behind before the ITT begins - and he's not going to make up that deficit on Contador.

It's quite possible that the final result may come down to the ITT. Porte & Contador can both TT reasonably well. I'm not sure about Aru.

Agree that Astana & Sky will be able to take the day off today, recovering some of the energy they spent in the last 2 days. Saxo Tinkoff will have to do some of the work, as the holders of the pink jersey, but they should get support from the sprinters' teams, so it's not all bad for them.
 
wow -what a night
break away
the contenders climbing and attacking
great entertainment
all it needed was a shite load of snow to be perfect but I am a bit sick like that
 
Contadors attack was half hearted, but boy did Porte make it look easy when he bridged up. Aru looked alot worse and I think he may pop later in the Giro.
 
Last night's stage was fairly bland and generic, but the aftermath of the crash in the final straight could be massive.

This stage was easily the most boring of the stages so far contested. A breakaway of 5 riders formed early, took a lead of around 4 minutes, only to be caught 13km from the finish. In the end it took Saxo Tinkoff riding on the front to bring them back, after the sprinters' teams were unable/unwilling to get the job done. They did have some strong side winds around the 10-17km mark, but unfortunately there were no echelons to make the race interesting. Probably just as well, as Porte was nowhere near the front of the peleton and could have found himself in trouble.

The sprinters' teams took over after the 3km mark was passed and Greipel won quite comfortably, much to the surprise of absolutely nobody. The real action was happening behind him...

With a few hundred meters to go, one of the Nippo Vini-Fantini (Daniele Colli) riders hit a spectator, who was leaning over the barriers to take a photograph. This triggered a mass crash. Colli suffered a badly broken or dislocated arm, with footage showing his hand on the road, pointing up when it should have been pointing down.

The most important victim of the crash was Alberto Contador, who suffered a dislocated shoulder. He was able to pop it back into the socket and proceeded to ride gingerly across the line. His shoulder then popped out again just before the presentation ceremony. He was unable to wear the pink jersey on the podium and skipped the media interviews which are normally compulsory. It is unknown at this stage if he'll be able to continue racing - he's putting on a brave face, but was obviously in a lot of pain.

Tonight's stage is relatively flat, with just 1x Cat4 climb. However, at 264km it's the longest of this year's Giro. Even if he can continue, I'm not sure that he'll be able to keep up with Porte & Aru in the mountains if his shoulder is causing him so much pain.
 
The most important victim of the crash was Alberto Contador, who suffered a dislocated shoulder. He was able to pop it back into the socket and proceeded to ride gingerly across the line. His shoulder then popped out again just before the presentation ceremony. He was unable to wear the pink jersey on the podium and skipped the media interviews which are normally compulsory. It is unknown at this stage if he'll be able to continue racing - he's putting on a brave face, but was obviously in a lot of pain.

Tonight's stage is relatively flat, with just 1x Cat4 climb. However, at 264km it's the longest of this year's Giro. Even if he can continue, I'm not sure that he'll be able to keep up with Porte & Aru in the mountains if his shoulder is causing him so much pain.

Just curious, what are the UCI rules like with in terms of pain medication etc?
 
I'm perplexed at comments like bland and generic - this is great entertainment early in giro.today is a tad boring but it is the longest stage
Some of the stages have been great, but flat stages for the sprinters tend to be very formulaic and dull until the last 3km.

It also doesn't help that tgese stages very rarely result in changes to the GC standings.
 

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Tonight looks the goods, really hoping Contadors shoulder doesn't cost him too much, he's just great to watch!
 
How good is the Giro! Much better than the snooze-fest that has been the Tour in recent years.
Only thing lacking is Phil and Paul in the commentary booth - Matt Keenan and David McKenzie both full of knowledge, but don't offer much in the entertainment stakes.....
 
Last night's stage turned out to be a bit of a disappointment, after the fireworks we witnessed earlier in the week. The stage finished with a Cat1 mountain top... perfect for a sorting out, right? Wrong.

By the time the coverage started we had 2 breakaway groups down the road. In the lead was a small group of 4 riders, with a much larger group doing their best to catch them. Oddly, the second group got to within 20 second of the leaders, before falling back to be around 90 seconds behind at the base of the climb. Once the riders hit the climb it was every man for himself, with Benat Inxausti coming from the 2nd group to win the stage.

Behind them, the peleton basically rode tempo until the last few kilometres, when a relatively select group finally made their escape. The group wasn't really that select though, because Uran was able to keep up with them (unlike the previous stages where he lost time). The group of 4 riders sprinted to the line, but there were no time gaps and no time bonuses left by the time they reached the finish line. That said, Contador did pick up a 2-second bonus at one of the intermediate sprints, so his lead over Aru was doubled (from 2 seconds to 4 seconds).

About the only interesting feature of the stage was watching the Nippo Vini-Fantini riders sitting on the front of the peleton until around 50km to go. Presumably their DS wasn't impressed when they failed to get a single representative into either of the breakaway groups and decided that he'd put them on the front of the peleton to ensure they got some decent TV airtime for the sponsors.

Hopefully tonight's stage will be a bit more interesting, but, with 12km between the top of the final Cat2 and the finish, it's unlikely that we'll see another decent sorting of the big boys tonight.
 
This stage had a very familiar feel to it, following the same pattern as several previous medium mountain stages.

The TV coverage opened with Tom Jelter Slagter riding solo at the front of the race, with a group of riders about 90 seconds behind him. A surprisingly large peleton was a further 4 minutes down the road, having largely regrouped after the opening Cat2 & Cat1 climbs. This remained the status quo, until the final climb, which started around 16km from the finish.

At the front of the race, Paolo Tiralongo finally succeeded in breaking away from the chasing group, having failed in 2 previous attempts to do so. He caught Slagter just after cresting the final Cat2 climb. They worked together for a short period, but then the lights went out on Slagter (after riding solo for 60km), allowing Tiralongo to ride to a comfortable victory. Tiralongo is aged 37 and has won 3 races in his professional career - all of them stages of the Giro d'Italia.

Back in the main pack, a very familiar story was beginning to unfold. A group of 4 riders broke free on the final Cat2 climb. Much to nobody's surprise those 4 riders were Contador, Porte, Aru and Landa, the same 4 riders we saw riding together on previous climbs. Once again, Uran was notable by his absence. This group went over the top of the climb together and worked to increase their lead over the rest of the peleton (which included Uran). When I say "they worked", that specifically excludes Richie Porte who did nothing but suck wheels for the entire distance. They came into the finish straight together, with Aru jumping the others in the sprint to the finish. He was able to get the jump because Contador was momentarily distracted, giving Porte a well deserved gobfull for being a lazy SOB and refusing to contribute to the group's success. Maybe Contador might have been better off saving his tirade until after they'd crossed the finish line. Aru's time gain was all of 1 second and there were no time bonuses on offer, so it's pretty much irrelevant in the bigger scheme of things.

Once again, Uran was the big loser on the stage. He lost a further 47 seconds to Aru, and 46 to Porte & Contador. I know Uran's a TT specialist these days, but Porte and Contador can both TT quite nicely too. Aru's position might still be in danger, but Uran is now 2:10 down on Contador and I can't see him making up that difference - let alone any further losses he's likely to incur in the mountain stages still to come.
 
Some interesting tactics being used by the various teams...

Astana clearly have the strongest team at this year's Giro. Last night Tiralongo won the stage, Aru & Landa finished with Contador, with 3 more riders in the Uran group as well. They have 3 riders in the top 5 - Aru (2nd), Landa (4th) and Cataldo (5th). One can only assume that they're enjoying the benefits of some fairly significant pharmaceutical enhancement (not that the others are clean, just not as heavily juiced as Astana). It's not a difficult assumption to make, given the team's recent doping history (almost being thrown out of the World Tour) and their Director's own personal history (thrown out of the Tour de France for blood doping using someone else's blood). It was pretty much confirmed by Michael Rogers' comments (as reported by Keenan & McKenzie) that this is the hardest Grand Tour of his career in terms of the power wattages being produced on a regular basis. High power, over sustained periods = doping.

Either way, Astana's declared tactic is to ride everyone else into the ground early in the race. It's not working terribly well. Contador's teammates might be disappearing on the critical climbs, but Contador is still comfortably matching everything that Landa & Aru can throw at him and still wears the maglia rosa. The big question is how many petrol tickets they've burned early in the race, and whether that will come back to hurt them when the race gets really tough in the Dolomites? Only time will tell.

Contador & Saxo Tinkoff have encouraged Astana to waste their energy, by faking a shoulder injury, tricking them into attacking him when he's seemingly weakened (but in reality is completely healthy). Reminds me a little of Return of the Jedi, with the Empire luring the rebel fleet into attacking the Death Star while the shield & weaponry were fully operational.

UK Postal have been suspiciously quiet, both at the team and individual level. They've declared that they're going to let Astana & Saxo Tinkoff do all the hard work, with Porte (hopefully) sweeping up the crumbs when the other teams have exhausted themselves. Saxo Tinkoff have to ride on the front anyway, as Contador is wearing the Maglia Rosa. Astana are seemingly happy to do the rest of the hard work, due to their own sheer stupidity. I guess there's really no need for UK Postal to do anything more than the absolute minimum. It's morally dubious, but if the other teams are happy to give them a free ride, then am I to argue?

Unfortunately, UK Postal aren't only playing this game at the team level. Porte has ridden this race as a lazy wheel sucking SOB who doesn't deserve to win. Contador, Aru & Landa are all entertaining us, attacking and working to build time gaps over the likes of Uran. Porte just sits on the back of the group, refusing to work with them, knowing that he has a 60km TT next Saturday in which he's likely to put time into all 3 of them. If they want to win the race, then it's up to them to get rid of him. That's the way he sees it. I just hate seeing riders employing this kind of tactic and being successful at it - it's morally wrong.

The funniest team tactics seen so far still belong to Nippo Vini-Fantini, who spent most of Saturday night's stage riding on the front of the peleton as punishment for missing out on not one but two breakaways. Most amusing (though I doubt the riders thought it was funny).
 
Wasn't paying enough attention when the group of 4 rode away from the bunch, did Uran just miss getting on or did he just not bother? He obviously is still riding to the plan at this stage and made a lot of time on last years first TT but he is underestimating Porte's form and TT ability if he thinks he can make up this much time.
 
Wasn't paying enough attention when the group of 4 rode away from the bunch, did Uran just miss getting on or did he just not bother? He obviously is still riding to the plan at this stage and made a lot of time on last years first TT but he is underestimating Porte's form and TT ability if he thinks he can make up this much time.
He was sitting half way back in the peleton (which had around 20-30 riders at the time). He never even tried to go with them.

Uran is getting over a bout of bronchitis, which is why he doesn't have the "legs" (read the spare cardio capacity) to go with them when they accelerate on the steeper climbs. It's not that he's putting all his eggs in the TT basket, he's just not well enough to perform at his full capacity.
 
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