Harvey gone

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clogged said:
I was the same - I thought Harvey had a "sackable" season in 2011, but my fear was they'd either bring in another rookie to replace him, or some former coach like Malthouse at Carlton or Eade at the Suns (or going further back, Blight at St Kilda or Pagan at Carlton) who was finished and had lost touch with the game.

Getting in a guy who was already a coach and at the top of his game was the biggest coup in footy.
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Sackable yes if there is a better coach available. There were worse candidates floating around.

I would have put it more as "replaceable" than sackable. Just because an incumbent is not doing something specifically wrong doesn't mean that they should be immune to being replaced with a better available candidate.

Kind of like dating.
 
clogged said:
Club has not been averse to seeking mature recruits, they simply haven't turned out as useful. However the club hasn't been really tested for turnover in the key positions. When Sandilands, Pavlich and McPharlin are all gone, the club has to make its first difficult decisions in years for how to manage that situation - plug on with understudies, or seek remedies via mature age recruitment from other clubs. This is where Lyon's say will be key.

The draft and trade model has worked so long as Pavlich, Sandilands and McPharlin have been available. Their retirement may break the model.
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It may but the model that they established in 2008 (prior to Lyon) was built around sustained success.

We've switched to a policy of not trading our top draft pick, using our later picks moneyball style, finding the best mature talent in the PSD and using free agency for needs. That has given us a spread of drafted talent, and younger developing players.

Outside of KPP (and possibly medium defenders) we're pretty solid for talent coming through in the 19-24 age bracket. If we can pick up a Rance, and another tall defender we're good for a while in defense to cover MJ/McPharlin as they retire. Up forward we need one more developing tall, but if we can pick up a player in the 22-24 age bracket, we're sorted for a while.

So sure if Pav, McPharlin retire this season we'll have a dip, but I don't believe it's dire to the point of changing the model we have in place. I also don't believe that their retirement will give Lyon any more say in the approach we take, otherwise it compromises our model.

The longer we continue to perform as a team (consistently) the easier it will be for us to land the big names as well, and it might be enough to sway the Hogans, McCarthys into the future.
 

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Arcassius said:
It may but the model that they established in 2008 (prior to Lyon) was built around sustained success.

We've switched to a policy of not trading our top draft pick, using our later picks moneyball style, finding the best mature talent in the PSD and using free agency for needs. That has given us a spread of drafted talent, and younger developing players.

Outside of KPP (and possibly medium defenders) we're pretty solid for talent coming through in the 19-24 age bracket. If we can pick up a Rance, and another tall defender we're good for a while in defense to cover MJ/McPharlin as they retire. Up forward we need one more developing tall, but if we can pick up a player in the 22-24 age bracket, we're sorted for a while.

So sure if Pav, McPharlin retire this season we'll have a dip, but I don't believe it's dire to the point of changing the model we have in place. I also don't believe that their retirement will give Lyon any more say in the approach we take, otherwise it compromises our model.
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Sustained success may mean many things - treading water around the fringes of the finals with a mature squad is 'sustained success' but doesn't get you closer to the ultimate.

The suggestions you make about picking up players is exactly what the club shouldn't do when Pav et al are gone.

The current model picked up Sylvia and Gumbleton in the 2013 off season - both were failures. They're failures you can afford when you've got a stable squad with some of the best players in the comp in key positions.
 
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clogged said:
Sustained success may mean many things - treading water around the fringes of the finals with a mature squad is 'sustained success' but doesn't get you closer to the ultimate.

The suggestions you make about picking up players is exactly what the club shouldn't do when Pav et al are gone.

The current model picked up Sylvia and Gumbleton in the 2013 off season - both were failures. They're failures you can afford when you've got a stable squad with some of the best players in the comp in key positions.
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Past results don't dictate future success. The club would have learnt a lot after Sylvia, and probably also Gumbleton - as long as they improve their processes to do more due diligence then long term it's a worthwhile strategy to keep chasing mature players. The model doesn't change, just the diligence. It's easy to quote the failures but then fail to bring up Pearce, Spurr, Barlow, Dawson etc.

It's a game of best guess and probabilities.
 
Arcassius said:
Past results don't dictate future success. The club would have learnt a lot after Sylvia, and probably also Gumbleton - as long as they improve their processes to do more due diligence then long term it's a worthwhile strategy to keep chasing mature players. The model doesn't change, just the diligence. It's easy to quote the failures but then fail to bring up Pearce, Spurr, Barlow, Dawson etc.

It's a game of best guess and probabilities.
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Just in terms of diligence it was really interesting reading in yours & Tim's thread about the depth that Freo went to when interviewing Lachie. Apparently our questioning was much more involved and detailed than other clubs.
 
Arcassius said:
Past results don't dictate future success. The club would have learnt a lot after Sylvia, and probably also Gumbleton - as long as they improve their processes to do more due diligence then long term it's a worthwhile strategy to keep chasing mature players. The model doesn't change, just the diligence. It's easy to quote the failures but then fail to bring up Pearce, Spurr, Barlow, Dawson etc.

It's a game of best guess and probabilities.
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I think you're not seeing the wood for the trees. Moving from a playing list that has three multiple AA quality key talls in defence, ruck and attack to none isn't fixed with good recruits like Dawson, and 'bad' recruits like Gumbleton aren't costly so long as the side doesn't need them. The wins and losses of the model haven't meant much to the overall structure of the side - McPharlin is still the best key defender, Sandilands is still the best ruck, and Pavlich is still the best forward, and the gap between those three and the next best is considerable.

A side that has Dawson and Pearce as defenders, Clarke and Hannath as rucks, and Taberner and Apeness as key forwards will test the model. The temptation to bring in quality and/or experience, and for good, experienced players in that position their is a massive upfront cost either in terms of salary or draft picks.
 
Generally, quality of midfield determines performance. Pavlich is having a good year but the delivery is first rate. Our midfield quality and depth will keep us in good stead for the next 4-5 years.
 
clogged said:
I think you're not seeing the wood for the trees.
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That statement goes both ways.

We will *never* be able to replace Pavlich and McPharlin with like-for-like as they are rare players. When Fyfe retires we will never be able to replace him either with someone of equal ability. All we can do is continue to maximise the value we get out of every channel available to us to obtain players. From time to time we will snag a player of their quality through free agency, the draft, or the PSD.
 
Arcassius said:
That statement goes both ways.

We will *never* be able to replace Pavlich and McPharlin with like-for-like as they are rare players. When Fyfe retires we will never be able to replace him either with someone of equal ability. All we can do is continue to maximise the value we get out of every channel available to us to obtain players. From time to time we will snag a player of their quality through free agency, the draft, or the PSD.
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I'm not talking about like-for-like. When Collingwood's push in 02-03 failed they didn't go for a like-for-like replacement of Buckley or Rocca as their careers came to a close, but found players in the same quality range in Pendlebury and Cloke to take up similar roles.

Collingwood did it by having an almighty drop between 04-05. They're arguably doing it again now. Sydney is another club that dropped in 2009. Will Fremantle and Lyon tolerate a year or two out of finals in order to push hard later? Does the model and the coach accept that at as the price of true success, or is 'sustained' success more important?
 
clogged said:
Losing seven games in a row in your fourth season is a sackable offence IMO.
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In the middle of that 7 game stretch I drove from Sydney to Melbourne on a Saturday and back to Sydney on the Sunday so I could spend my Saturday evening watching this:

Saturday, 20 August (7:10 pm) North Melbourne 21.17 (143) def. Fremantle 6.9 (45) Etihad Stadium (crowd: 17,581)
 
clogged said:
Club has not been averse to seeking mature recruits, they simply haven't turned out as useful. However the club hasn't been really tested for turnover in the key positions. When Sandilands, Pavlich and McPharlin are all gone, the club has to make its first difficult decisions in years for how to manage that situation - plug on with understudies, or seek remedies via mature age recruitment from other clubs. This is where Lyon's say will be key.

The draft and trade model has worked so long as Pavlich, Sandilands and McPharlin have been available. Their retirement may break the model.
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Perhaps...but with Alex Pearce showing something i'm less concerned.

Need Tabs t keep improving and Apeness to show something
 

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Lach72 said:
Perhaps...but with Alex Pearce showing something i'm less concerned.

Need Tabs t keep improving and Apeness to show something
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Yeah, I don't think a St Kilda or Brisbane style collapse is the most likely outcome, but a decline of some kind is pretty much guaranteed. Have there been any sides that have lost that much quality and steered through? Maybe Geelong, who lost Scarlett, Ottens and Mooney over 1-2 years and still made top four after that, but they had pretty high quality backups in Hawkins and Taylor still playing.

It won't be easy and the temptation to plug holes will be strong.
 
clogged said:
Yeah, I don't think a St Kilda or Brisbane style collapse is the most likely outcome, but a decline of some kind is pretty much guaranteed. Have there been any sides that have lost that much quality and steered through? Maybe Geelong, who lost Scarlett, Ottens and Mooney over 1-2 years and still made top four after that, but they had pretty high quality backups in Hawkins and Taylor still playing.

It won't be easy and the temptation to plug holes will be strong.
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It will depend I think on that they see from Blakely, Weller and Langdon.

If one or two of them show the capability to be A grade material, then the club may be inclined to have a a tilt with a first round pick at a trade for a KPP
 
clogged said:
Yeah, I don't think a St Kilda or Brisbane style collapse is the most likely outcome, but a decline of some kind is pretty much guaranteed. Have there been any sides that have lost that much quality and steered through? Maybe Geelong, who lost Scarlett, Ottens and Mooney over 1-2 years and still made top four after that, but they had pretty high quality backups in Hawkins and Taylor still playing.

It won't be easy and the temptation to plug holes will be strong.
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Geelong and us have two things St Kilda and Brisbane don't have though. Top 5 midfielders still running the show
 
Lach72 said:
Geelong and us have two things St Kilda and Brisbane don't have though. Top 5 midfielders still running the show
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Yeah don't know about that. Black, Akermanis, and Power were still around after 2004, as were Bradshaw and Brown, Brisbane still fell in a hole. All were younger than Mundy is now. Black was the same age as Hill and Brown was younger than Fyfe in the 2004 GF.
 
Yeti said:
Can anyone imagine how Mark Harvey would be in this press conference? The media was so hostile!
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Half of them can't even get their questions out they are so keen to have a go at Ross and the Steves. Just highlights the professionalism of the club post 2008 and Ross generally. Thank * this happened.
 
Yeti said:
Can anyone imagine how Mark Harvey would be in this press conference? The media was so hostile!
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A few of those journos in the time since probably wished they'd have bitten their tongues a bit more in that press conference. Ross neither forgives or forgets. I bet Mark Readings in particular would be flat out getting the steam off Ross' piss on a frosty morning.
 
The questions in that press conference are so pissweak. "Stabbed in the back", "could you look him in the eye?"
 
clogged said:
Yeah don't know about that. Black, Akermanis, and Power were still around after 2004, as were Bradshaw and Brown, Brisbane still fell in a hole. All were younger than Mundy is now. Black was the same age as Hill and Brown was younger than Fyfe in the 2004 GF.
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Personally, I think there's a lot to be said for the hunger of players, more from the point of view of their actions rather than their words - after they've just won 3 premierships. The hunger in our playing group would count for a little more at the end of the year than a team that's won a few and just starting to fall off the perch, regardless of the age of a few individuals.
 
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