Hawks v Geelong: who will win and why?

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barmy44

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As a fan, every game matters and that streak was beyond annoying as a Hawk fan. As a fan, last week's game v GCS mattered because we all love footy and want our team to win every game. However, in terms of probable premiership success and season result, those H&A games did mean little (in comparison at least to a PF and GF). Winning them would have been a source of great enjoyment but they weren't the final determinant of of our season's end result.

true to an extent, but win both against us '09, you were top 8; win both against us in '10, you were top 4.

so in many ways, they were determinant of your seasons end result.

a PF win/loss obviously defines a teams season, but you have to win enough games to get there, let alone be in a position to win it.

our capitulations to adelaide and brisbane, games when we had top 2 almost 'sewn up' and they 'didnt matter'... win just one of them, and we had top spot and arguably the 'easier' QF.
 
true to an extent, but win both against us '09, you were top 8; win both against us in '10, you were top 4.

so in many ways, they were determinant of your seasons end result.

True and I addressed that in the earlier post with LLD. While wins in those games would have altered the ladder positions as you say, wins in those games would still have gone against expectation in that Geelong were still the number 1 team (or thereabouts with Saints/Pies) and we were not necessarily giving ground against the sides we were competing for spots with by losing those games. Most teams were losing to Geelong. So sure, 4 points are 4 points but it was all the games that the Hawks would have reasonably been expected to win that they managed to drop over those 2 years that inevitably cost them the spots that they may have otherwise occupied. And the fact that we didn't win those games meant in the end we weren't good enough those years, so a few more losses to the Cats doesn't really matter anyway...because we just weren't having good enough seasons to go all the way.
 

TyHawk

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true to an extent, but win both against us '09, you were top 8; win both against us in '10, you were top 4.

so in many ways, they were determinant of your seasons end result.

a PF win/loss obviously defines a teams season, but you have to win enough games to get there, let alone be in a position to win it.

our capitulations to adelaide and brisbane, games when we had top 2 almost 'sewn up' and they 'didnt matter'... win just one of them, and we had top spot and arguably the 'easier' QF.
2009 and 2010 the Cats were easily better IMO. But I was more disappointed and hurt with the three losses in 2011 considering we only lost 6 for the whole year including finals. I'm so over this 'when it matters s**t' it's not even funny...the way I see it every next game is important and yes! We did win PF but even that was a heart pulsating game! Both teams deserve a lot of credit for been constants in this era as Chris Scott pointed out. All this talk about what if's or when it matters takes away the gloss of the performances of each team. Banter is only good when it makes sense and respect behind it IMO. Can't wait for Monday! (And I hate Mondays)
 

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I really don't want this to become the us vs them type things and I'm to having a crack at you by any stretch. The one question this poses then if the 11 losses really didn't matter, why then are there 10,000s of posts from Hawks supporters bemoaning these very losses that, as you say, don't matter.
Just seems a little contradictory to, as you say, go on so much about something that does not matter.

These games are massive events for both clubs and the history is rich on both sides with many an epic encounter. I think its reasonable to assert they do matter and the game of footy is the biggest winner..

Go Catters

For me I hate losing anything, including preseason games and half time little league games.

My question to you would be would you swap the 11 wins for a wins in the 08gf and the 13pf?
 

barmy44

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2009 and 2010 the Cats were easily better IMO. But I was more disappointed and hurt with the three losses in 2011 considering we only lost 6 for the whole year including finals. I'm so over this 'when it matters s**t' it's not even funny...the way I see it every next game is important and yes! We did win PF but even that was a heart pulsating game! Both teams deserve a lot of credit for been constants in this era as Chris Scott pointed out. All this talk about what if's or when it matters takes away the gloss of the performances of each team. Banter is only good when it makes sense and respect behind it IMO. Can't wait for Monday! (And I hate Mondays)

agree on all counts... 2013 PF you guys were easily better. i was proud of our efforts, loved the game, and thought you guys were the deserving premiers. 2009 you guys had us on ice at times, especially in the rd 17 match. so while we were the better team, form goes out the window.

as to the bolded, i think its a shame watching the guys who actually battled out most of these matches, including last years PF, talk so highly of each other and the respect they have for one another, to then come on here and see pointless nonsense flung at anonymous usernames over tribalistic opinion.
 

barmy44

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I agree, I would not swap.

Its all about perception. What matters to you, might not matter to me.

the results are what they are...

pure speculation, but geelong could have drifted off into the bottom 8 with 2 back-to-back flags had we got '08.

those 11 wins were some of the most enjoyable i have watched, and contributed to premierships in '09 and '11. flags we probably wouldnt have if we had dropped all of those 11 matches.

and if we had won the '13 PF, i honestly believe freo would have their first premiership. they didnt fear us like they feared hawthorn, and i dont think their nerves would have mattered as much knowing they had us again. plus, both freo and hawthorn were simply better than us in the '13 finals.

lastly, from a hawthorn point of view — it would have been a shame for crawford to bow out in a losing GF, and beating us that day took a huge effort and it would be churlish and selfish of me to want to swap wins.

following a sporting team is nothing without ups and downs. i watched vincent kompany probably blow the '13/'14 title for city a few nights ago in a terrible second. but that is also tempered somewhat by watching them win the '11/'12 title from 8 points back 5 games out, and with 2 goals in stoppage time on the final day. imagine watching your team win every week and every season? id give up watching pretty quickly.

so im with you, ill keep it as it is. not really one for 'what ifs', and im very happy to have watched every second of geelong play, the good and the bad, going back all the way to scattered memories as a young kid in '92.

no one can say who will win this week, or why... but we would all be better off if we treated each other with the respect our clubs show. and we will all enjoy the game win or lose, thats the only (almost) guarantee.
 
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the results are what they are...

pure speculation, but geelong could have drifted off into the bottom 8 with 2 back-to-back flags had we got '08.

those 11 wins were some of the most enjoyable i have watched, and contributed to premierships in '09 and '11. flags we probably wouldnt have in we had dropped all of those 11 matches.

and if we had won the '13 PF, i honestly believe freo would have their first premiership. they didnt fear us like they feared hawthorn, and i dont think their nerves would have mattered as much knowing they had us again. plus, both freo and hawthorn were simply better than us in the '13 finals.

lastly, from a hawthorn point of view — it would have been a shame for crawford to bow out in a losing GF, and beating us that day took a huge effort and it would be churlish and selfish of me to want to swap wins.

following a sporting team is nothing without ups and downs. i watched vincent kompany probably blow the '13/'14 title for city a few nights ago in a terrible second. but that is also tempered somewhat by watching them win the '11/'12 title from 8 points back 5 games out, and with 2 goals in stoppage time on the final day. imagine watching your team win every week and every season? id give up watching pretty quickly.

so im with you, ill keep it as it is. not really one for 'what ifs', and im very happy to have watched every second of geelong play, the good and the bad, going back all the way to scattered memories as a young kid of '92.

no one can say who will win this week, or why... but we would all be better off if we treated each other with the respect our clubs show. and we will all enjoy the game win or lose, thats the only (almost) guarantee.

The downs do make the ups better.
 
Some good ins for the Hawks if they all play.

McEvoy, Lake and Stratton strengthens us considerably, but both Lake and Big Boy have been named at Box Hill as well.

Would like to see Mitch Hallahan make his debut against the Cats, and Clarkson has shown a willingness to drop debutants into the hot stuff and see how they go, so it may just eventuate.

Can't see Anderson playing after playing a little over a half of footy 2 weeks ago.
 

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Sportsbet have Geelong's odds at $2.50. That's worth putting a pineapple on.

That's a dark path that I had trod - bet on Geelong the last 6 times in a row in the H&A (not accumulating all, but a couple of hundred each time). Learnt that it still didn't make me happy to lose the game. Decided not to bet the PF and, well...
 

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Hasn't he only played a half of footy all season so far after having pneumonia in the offseason?

If so it would be a big risk.

Would rather see Hallahan get a go. Need to find out if he can play at the top level.
I was flabbergasted to seem him included

. Was ill all season and from all reports is skinny is hell and would be lucky to have him back mid-season
. Came back earlier than expected for BH. Played half a game before he did his shoulder and has missed the last 2 weeks through injury
. Hasn't played a game (barring one half before injury in the VFL) since the VFL Grand Final last year
 

manboob

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I won't argue with any of that. They are great games and losing the ones we did sucked. The manner we lost them in sucked even more. The distinction is between what matters to us as fans and what is really important in actual terms to determing whether the team itself has a successful season.

As a fan, every game matters and that streak was beyond annoying as a Hawk fan. As a fan, last week's game v GCS mattered because we all love footy and want our team to win every game. However, in terms of probable premiership success and season result, those H&A games did mean little (in comparison at least to a PF and GF). Winning them would have been a source of great enjoyment but they weren't the final determinant of of our season's end result.
You keep forgetting we beat you in a final and in other years you didn't even make it that far. So this "oh between a GF and PF" bullshit really get's on my nerves.
 
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I don't think the streak was that unusual. Geelong were clearly the better team for most of it and only recently would Hawthorn have any argument that they are better.

The whole Kennett curse crap takes a bit of gloss off Geelong's domination. I don't think a curse had much to do with it at all. Geelong were a great team in a great era for the club and they knew how to win big games.
 

SA HAWK

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I don't think the streak was that unusual. Geelong were clearly the better team for most of it and only recently would Hawthorn have any argument that they are better.

The whole Kennett curse crap takes a bit of gloss off Geelong's domination. I don't think a curse had much to do with it at all. Geelong were a great team in a great era for the club and they knew how to win big games.
You were the better side from 08-11 for sure.

Very surprised we didn't cop a flogging in those years.
 
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I don't think the streak was that unusual. Geelong were clearly the better team for most of it and only recently would Hawthorn have any argument that they are better.

The whole Kennett curse crap takes a bit of gloss off Geelong's domination. I don't think a curse had much to do with it at all. Geelong were a great team in a great era for the club and they knew how to win big games.

Agree. The 7 losses between 09-11 weren't too bad to take as I knew you guys were the better side, they only hurt due to the nature of the losses, most being so close.

The 4 losses 2012-13 were the real frustrating ones as we overtook you in terms of being seen as the better side but we just couldn't beat you still and once again all losses were once again heartstoppers.

There was no curse, simply Geelong were too good for most of them and even once we overtook you, your team just got over the line by playing the better last 10 mins of those games, more composed.

The prelim was the first time we had a better and more composed last 10 minutes.

Can't wait for Monday! Another heartstopper no doubt!
 
You keep forgetting we beat you in a final and in other years you didn't even make it that far. So this "oh between a GF and PF" bullshit really get's on my nerves.

I mentioned the QF in one of the earlier posts.

Anyway, I don't care all that much. As others have said they have been great matches and I only entered the whole debate when LLD tried to imply the PF victory last year was only so raucously celebrated because we finally ended the streak, rather than beause we had just won through to a GF after coming from 20 points down to win a thriller.

Good luck this week.
 
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Agree. The 7 losses between 09-11 weren't too bad to take as I knew you guys were the better side, they only hurt due to the nature of the losses, most being so close.

The 4 losses 2012-13 were the real frustrating ones as we overtook you in terms of being seen as the better side but we just couldn't beat you still and once again all losses were once again heartstoppers.

There was no curse, simply Geelong were too good for most of them and even once we overtook you, your team just got over the line by playing the better last 10 mins of those games, more composed.

The prelim was the first time we had a better and more composed last 10 minutes.

Can't wait for Monday! Another heartstopper no doubt!

Hawks clearly deserve the tag of best team in the league at the moment. They've been so clean this year and are smashing some very good teams. It's a little scary as an opposition supporter.

Hopefully it's another classic on Monday.
 
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