Preview Hawthorn season preview - Me? I Like Football

[The Hitman]

Thought you'd want to check out our new site's 2015 season preview for the Hawks.

Genuinely after the thoughts of fellow Hawthorn fans and interested in feedback, as well as whether you think the three-peat is on.

I've posted the whole thing here, sans images, to comply with the BigFooty anti-spamming protocols; hopefully that's okay for the mods. I'm not the author but it's my site and I've posted it because I want to respectively engage. If you want to see the version on the site you can by clicking here.

2015 season preview: Hawthorn

By Andrew Lowcock

LAST CAMPAIGN

If Hawthorn fans could freeze time, they’d stop it not long after 5:00pm on Saturday the 27th of September, 2014 – and never hit play again. That is when the Hawks were done completing their piece de resistance: a 63-point grand final demolition of the highly fancied Swans, the same club who prised away their biggest star 12 months earlier.

The grand final was truly a perfect storm, a day on which everything that could possibly go right, did. It ran contrary to a season where injuries to a swathe of players, and an illness that forced coach Alastair Clarkson to step aside for more than a month, wound the already long odds of a back-to-back campaign even further out.

After the grand final it felt, at the time, like the culmination of the Alastair Clarkson era. That is until you realise there is no reason for the Hawks to commence any sort of slide, as fresh-faced talent like Brad Hill and Will Langford continue to rejuvenate the team, and the likes of Jordan Lewis, Grant Birchall and Jarryd Roughead – the top three in Hawthorn’s 2014 best and fairest – remain in their prime years.

I KNOW WHAT YOU DID LAST SUMMER

Hawthorn again used the trade and free agency period to bolster their already deep and talented squad. This time the prime target was Melbourne defender and former All Australian James Frawley – and they got their man.

At 26, Frawley is equipped to assume Brian Lake’s duties of taking the opponent’s most dangerous key forward, although in 2015 he’ll have to share those duties with Lake and may be required to play on smaller opponents.

The key challenge for Frawley will be proving that a new environment is all he needs to recapture that All Australian form of 2010 and that his disappointing recent performances were more a symptom of his old club’s malaise.

The other big acquisition was with a view to the longer term. The Hawks traded their first round draft pick to Greater Western Sydney for Jono O’Rourke, who was the number two pick in the 2012 national draft, and played just nine games in two years. If he realises his junior potential, O’Rourke will add endurance and further speed to the Hawks’ midfield, an attribute the club – criticised for a lack of leg speed just a few years ago – is now abundant with.

As is the fate of successful clubs, the Hawks did have to shed a bit of depth as players looked for senior opportunities elsewhere. Kyle Cheney and Luke Lowden were traded to Adelaide, but the departure that could sting most was Mitch Hallahan’s departure to Gold Coast. Hallahan had shown glimpses of his potential with a 25-disposal effort against Sydney in Round eight.

There was also a fond farewell to dual premiership player Brad Sewell, who retired after being edged out of the side during the finals, finishing on exactly 200 games.

THE CHALLENGE

There only appears two challenges for Hawthorn in 2015: the weight of history and the passage of time, both of which they can do little about.

Only one team has gone back-to-back-to-back since 1960 – the year before Hawthorn won the first of their 12 flags – and even the Brisbane Lions of 2003 did it the hard way, having to win a preliminary final away from home and carrying several weary and tired bodies to one last triumph.

The Hawks will be hoping that lynchpins Sam Mitchell (32 years old), Josh Gibson (31), Shaun Burgoyne (32), captain Luke Hodge (31 in June) and Brian Lake (33) can avoid injuries when it matters and all can arrive in September as fit and firing as they did in 2014.

THE COACH

Embarking on his 11th season at the helm, Alastair Clarkson seems to have the hang of this coaching caper by now. A third premiership brought him level with Mick Malthouse; a fourth would enshrine his spot as one of the all-time greats, tying him with Leigh Matthews, Kevin Sheedy, David Parkin, Allan Jeans and Ron Barassi.

Even Clarkson’s time out with illness in 2014 couldn’t derail the Hawks train, with senior assistant Brendon Bolton winning all five of his games in charge.

THE STAR

2014 saw Jordan Lewis elevate himself into one of the competition’s absolute A-grade midfielders. With Sam Mitchell spending an increasing amount of time at half back, it’s Lewis’ midfield to lead now, and he led it splendidly, averaging an extra six disposals a game.

His meagre tally of 15 Brownlow votes last season did not do the first-time best and fairest winner’s season justice, though he did win a spot on the bench of the All Australian team.

ON THE RISE

Not even the most ardent Hawthorn fan could have forecast Will Langford’s rapid rise in 2014. Langford had only one game under his belt entering the year, and ended it with a best-on-ground performance in a preliminary final and three memorable grand final goals.

Capable of locking down an opponent as a tagger, with his knack of important goals and ability to win his own ball, Langford may soon find it is himself being the target of hard tags.

IN THE GUN

Ben McEvoy ended 2014 with a premiership medal, but it wasn’t an easy journey to the grand final for the Hawks’ star 2013 off-season recruit.

McEvoy found himself in the VFL at key moments of the year, including in the third week of September, but Clarkson showed his faith by recalling the former Saint for the finale in place of Jonathon Ceglar.

This must be the year McEvoy stamps his authority as Hawthorn’s first-choice ruckman, because the competition is becoming fierce and the club showed its faith by trading away prospect Luke Lowden.

BEST 22

B: Josh Gibson – James Frawley – Ben Stratton
HB: Matthew Suckling – Brian Lake – Grant Birchall
C: Bradley Hill – Luke Hodge – Isaac Smith
HF: Cyril Rioli – Jarryd Roughead – Shaun Burgoyne
F: Luke Breust – Jack Gunston – Paul Puopolo
FOLL: Ben McEvoy – Jordan Lewis – Sam Mitchell
INT: David Hale – Will Langford – Liam Shiels – Jed Anderson

THE VERDICT

Hawthorn are in great shape for a tilt at their first three-peat, with Sydney and Port Adelaide again ready to be the stiffest on-field challengers. Only time will tell whether age and history will prove to be insurmountable challenges.

OUR PREDICTION

We have the Hawks finishing third at the end of the home and away season, with a third consecutive premiership a very real possibility.

 

[IdiotBox]

Nothing to really argue with or dislike in that summary. Good work by the author.

 

[Brishawk]

Third? Not sure if serious . . .

 

[IdiotBox]

Third? Not sure if serious . . .

you don't think we can snag the third premiership in a row? (pretty sure i know what you're questioning...)

 

[The Hitman]

Third? Not sure if serious . . .

This is how we came to our ladder prediction: http://meilikefootball.com/2015-season-previews/

To be honest, there was basically nothing between Sydney, Port and Hawthorn. I think Port got second on countback over Hawthorn because one more contributor thought they'd win the flag than Hawthorn.

 

[Brishawk]

This is how we came to our ladder prediction: http://meilikefootball.com/2015-season-previews/

To be honest, there was basically nothing between Sydney, Port and Hawthorn. I think Port got second on countback over Hawthorn because one more contributor thought they'd win the flag than Hawthorn.

I question it mainly because not many see improvement in Sydney. Malceski is gone. With Richards, Grundy, McVeigh, and shaw all old and playing in their backbone they are slow and performance levels of all those players was falling away last year. They will have to get a heck of a lot out of guys like Reid, Mitchell, Cunningham, Rohan, Jetta, and both Jacks just to stay where they were last year. They need to find a set of small forwards while basically only having midfielders in the reserves. And they are about one or two injuries to KPD away from playing untried kids. They haven't improved their ruck division. Really, had virtually injury free run at it last year and weren't close to good enough against a team who has recruited better and has more depth. Hard to see them finishing on top of Hawthorn. Where is the optimism coming from? Bloods Kulcha?

 

[Procrastinator35]

This is how we came to our ladder prediction: http://meilikefootball.com/2015-season-previews/

To be honest, there was basically nothing between Sydney, Port and Hawthorn. I think Port got second on countback over Hawthorn because one more contributor thought they'd win the flag than Hawthorn.

You have seriously over-estimated Sydney & the Buddy-Factor....They had the dream draw from VLAD-Heaven last season & this year's is not as easy....As Brishawk has also excellently surmised; they have lost their number one defender in Malceski & have no adequate replacement for him!

Suggest you try a re-calibration!

They won't get to play all top 4 teams on their home deck coming off 6 consecutive day breaks this season!....You & your colleagues that came up with this prediction need to have a serious look at their draw last year & then do sum more research/thinking thereafter!

 

[crazywildhorse]

I question it mainly because not many see improvement in Sydney. Malceski is gone. With Richards, Grundy, McVeigh, and shaw all old and playing in their backbone they are slow and performance levels of all those players was falling away last year. They will have to get a heck of a lot out of guys like Reid, Mitchell, Cunningham, Rohan, Jetta, and both Jacks just to stay where they were last year. They need to find a set of small forwards while basically only having midfielders in the reserves. And they are about one or two injuries to KPD away from playing untried kids. They haven't improved their ruck division. Really, had virtually injury free run at it last year and weren't close to good enough against a team who has recruited better and has more depth. Hard to see them finishing on top of Hawthorn. Where is the optimism coming from? Bloods Kulcha?

It is hard to see them going very far if they lose a couple of their key players for an extended period of time, especially Franklin. However, that same man could have another ripper and drag the side into another grand final. There is a lot of quality—and scope for growth—in their midfield, which means that they have the luxury to trial a few of them in other positions. Is that enough to cover up the holes that are forming in back end of the ground? They do have quite a few spuds filling holes though. Reminds me of our team in 2012. The biggest difference is that they didn't ship em off.

 

[Flag08]

Swans have a slow ageing defence, no rucks and no small forwards. A midfield and the twin towers won't get them a flag.

 

[Blaze Storm]

Swans have a slow ageing defence, no rucks and no small forwards. A midfield and the twin towers won't get them a flag.

You guys are forgetting that when Ted Richards gets beaten, it's not actually his fault. It was all those people upfield that should have been covering his man for him.

 

[Brishawk]

It is hard to see them going very far if they lose a couple of their key players for an extended period of time, especially Franklin. However, that same man could have another ripper and drag the side into another grand final. There is a lot of quality—and scope for growth—in their midfield, which means that they have the luxury to trial a few of them in other positions. Is that enough to cover up the holes that are forming in back end of the ground? They do have quite a few spuds filling holes though. Reminds me of our team in 2012. The biggest difference is that they didn't ship em off.

Lets put their year in perspective. They went 17-5 (142%) in a year with a soft draw and no injuries. The last time a team finished top with a record the same or worse (including percentage) was 2006. We finished with an almost identical record and we had a tougher draw and epic injuries. With a better run of injuries we would have gone 18-20 wins and would have been red hot favourites last year and this year.

 

[Sixpence]

Third? Not sure if serious . . .

You think that's bad? They have Richmond finishing 4th!

Meth, not even once!

 

[cs61]

Pretty good website, lots of quality previews for this season. Better than much I've seen anywhere else.

 

[The Hitman]

For the record, I'm a Hawthorn member.

There's a reason why Sydney was heavy favourite going into the grand final, and I'd defy and Hawk to say they expected what unfolded on September 27 to pan out that way. Win, maybe. But that kind of dominance and perfection? Nah.

Not here to defend Sydney - I dislike them as much as anyone. But they're a very, very good team. They have the best forward in the league, an excellent two-way midfield and the depth to ensure they get back into the top four and maybe another grand final.

Sounds similar to us, really. We have a better defence, but if they figure out what we did in 2013 - that the best use of Franklin isn't reliance but as part of a broader unit - they will be difficult to beat.

By the way, remember the prediction of third is after the H&A season. Last season's third-placed team had the same number of wins as the first and second - it means diddly squat in terms of premiership hopes.

 

[Todman]

I question it mainly because not many see improvement in Sydney. Malceski is gone. With Richards, Grundy, McVeigh, and shaw all old and playing in their backbone they are slow and performance levels of all those players was falling away last year.

Goodes wants to continue until the end of 2016. Why? Federal election. He wants a safe Labour seat in the Federal parliament and needs the high profile. Playing on will keep in the limelight even though his best years are behind him. He has stooped to sniper tactics.

 

[Brishawk]

For the record, I'm a Hawthorn member.

There's a reason why Sydney was heavy favourite going into the grand final, and I'd defy and Hawk to say they expected what unfolded on September 27 to pan out that way. Win, maybe. But that kind of dominance and perfection? Nah.

Not here to defend Sydney - I dislike them as much as anyone. But they're a very, very good team. They have the best forward in the league, an excellent two-way midfield and the depth to ensure they get back into the top four and maybe another grand final.

Sounds similar to us, really. We have a better defence, but if they figure out what we did in 2013 - that the best use of Franklin isn't reliance but as part of a broader unit - they will be difficult to beat.

By the way, remember the prediction of third is after the H&A season. Last season's third-placed team had the same number of wins as the first and second - it means diddly squat in terms of premiership hopes.

Depth?

Rucks: Pyke, Tippet and ?? Pyke goes down they are sunk.
KPD: Richards, Grundy, Reid and ?? Literally a guy who has had three knee recos and an untried kid. If Richards and Grundy struggle/go down this year they are up the proverbial creek without a paddle.
Small forwards: ????? Guys like Cunningham and McGlynn could play a role here but generally they are pushed up into the midfield and hope Buddy and Goodes can crumb the ball.
Running Defenders: Shaw, McVeigh, Rohan and ??? They are talking about playing Jetta back there because they have no one else.
Midfield: Plenty of Depth

Basically they have Mitchell as genuine best 22 not playing but only because their midfield depth for guys like him is full. Otherwise guys like Towers and B.JAck and a couple of others are supplementary players but consider this, Hawthorn have outside our best 22 (based on the GF) Anderson, O'Rourke, Frawley, Whitecorss, Ceglar, Simpkin, Litherland, and Shoenmakers all with plenty of AFL preseason under their belts and ready to go should we need them. We also have some talented youngsters who could come in and play a role if needed like Pittonet, TOBrien, Sicily, Howe, woodward, Webster and Heatherly (Sadly Brand went down). These guys can all play multiple roles and of the first group, they are all AFL standard. Sydney don't have that depth and are worse off than last year in that regard. I have been through the Swans entire list and they don't stack up.

 

[Davo23]

For the record, I'm a Hawthorn member.


Not here to defend Sydney - I dislike them as much as anyone. But they're a very, very good team. They have the best forward in the league, an excellent two-way midfield and the depth to ensure they get back into the top four and maybe another grand final.

Sounds similar to us, really. We have a better defence, but if they figure out what we did in 2013 - that the best use of Franklin isn't reliance but as part of a broader unit - they will be difficult to beat.

By the way, remember the prediction of third is after the H&A season. Last season's third-placed team had the same number of wins as the first and second - it means diddly squat in terms of premiership hopes.

Gerrard, is that you?

Errrrrr, you're wrong!

For the record, they have Buddy, that's all. Take away Franklin, they're a top 8 team only because of the advantage of their postage stamp size ground.

 

[TNTre]

An interesting comparison between us and Sydney would be not comparing best 22's, but comparing 22-44th players. Our depth is experienced and ready to go for the most part across the ground, with KPF being the only area we seem light on. Swans lose any key position player or ruck for any sustained amount of time, they will struggle massively.

 

[MinerBoy]

There's a reason why Sydney was heavy favourite going into the grand final

Because the masses got it wrong as to who was the best team.

GF at MCG, our recent clash(es) with Swans, our equal ladder placing despite our draw and our turmoils and finally the narrowness of our interstate losses against our main competition were at our most vulnerable points in the season injury and suspension wise.

Anyone who didn't think we were the favourites going in to the GF had been sucked in by the hype.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Because the masses got it wrong as to who was the best team.

GF at MCG, our recent clash(es) with Swans, our equal ladder placing despite our draw and our turmoils and finally the narrowness of our interstate losses against our main competition were at our most vulnerable points in the season injury and suspension wise.

Anyone who didn't think we were the favourites going in to the GF had been sucked in by the hype.

Or worse yet....Never did their Research/homework!

Some of us declared on Grand Final morning, in this very Forum, that We had Their measure & it would be proven on the biggest stage of all!

 

[Procrastinator35]

For the record, I'm a Hawthorn member.

There's a reason why Sydney was heavy favourite going into the grand final, and I'd defy and Hawk to say they expected what unfolded on September 27 to pan out that way. Win, maybe. But that kind of dominance and perfection? Nah.

Not here to defend Sydney - I dislike them as much as anyone. But they're a very, very good team. They have the best forward in the league, an excellent two-way midfield and the depth to ensure they get back into the top four and maybe another grand final.

Sounds similar to us, really. We have a better defence, but if they figure out what we did in 2013 - that the best use of Franklin isn't reliance but as part of a broader unit - they will be difficult to beat.

By the way, remember the prediction of third is after the H&A season. Last season's third-placed team had the same number of wins as the first and second - it means diddly squat in terms of premiership hopes.

I think the gist of my colleagues concerns here are that we are questioning the depth of your analysis & the accuracy of your research!

On those 2 points alone, your site appears somewhat flimsy & shallow!

 

[crazywildhorse]

I'm not sure why so many of you guys are talking down the Swans so much. They have won a flag with this lot of players. They may be a bit thin in some areas, but their midfield could be even better this year, and coached the right way, would cover up a lot of the holes. Personally I don't see a Swans premiership, but I don't have a problem with people suggesting that they'll get the better of us.

 

[Argy]

Likewise, I don't see why some supporters get their noses out of joint when others don't pick the Hawks to win the flag. Every supporter at this time of year thinks their team is going to perform better than last. That's natural. Me, I fervently hope we make it three in a row, but my honest expectation is that we won't. Not because I think we're any worse than last year, or the opposition any better, but that the odds are very much against it. Not much has to go wrong for it to slip away. A loss last year in the tight games against Essendon or GWS (to say nothing of Port in the prelim), could have put an end to our hopes of back to back. A couple of slip ups this season could easily put us on the back foot.

I'll be happy if we make the top four. After that I will begin to hope and pray that we will be able to do it again.

 

[Hawkas1988]

I think the gist of my colleagues concerns here are that we are questioning the depth of your analysis & the accuracy of your research!

On those 2 points alone, your site appears somewhat flimsy & shallow!

Seriously?

The guy and the website have gone to a lot of trouble and work to put together 18 very detailed reviews and I quite enjoyed reading ours. We kick up a stink because we are named 3rd and only just missing the top 2 by their thoughts and opinions.

What is with some people getting so offended when others don't have us top or premiers in their predictions? People differ and have opinions, doesn't mean their thoughts are flimsy and shallow. I can't believe how rude some people are on this site at times.

 

[The Hitman]

We weren't the dominant team last season; we were the dominant team on the most important day. And that's great!

Argy mentioned odds - that's important to remember. The odds of going back-to-back are so long, so what do you think the odds of going back-to-back-to-back are?

Do we have the talent to do it? Yup. Can we do it? Of course. Should it be the expectation? I'm not so sure.

We were probably toast if we lost that game against the Crows last year. Port had us on the ropes and had the opportunity to knock us out at the end of the prelim. We had a very unlucky year with injuries, but we were absolutely cherry ripe (bar Rioli, who still made the big dance) for finals.

Some of that is management and some of it is luck. Stuey Fox and Chris Fagan are the first to admit that. You do what you can and then let it ride - that's footy over a seven-month stretch.

We're as well placed for a premiership run as we've ever been, but if you think it's a fait accompli then you're delusional. And odds are you're going to be wrong.