Preview Hawthorn season preview - Me? I Like Football

[Cynic]

Top 2 is pivotal with all the the obvious threats coming from outside Victoria.

Depends who finished second. Kangaroos or Geelong wouldn't be a huge shock.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Depends who finished second. Kangaroos or Geelong wouldn't be a huge shock.

This is true obviously

 

[grumbleguts]

You guys are effectively arguing over who can better foresee the future.
It looks like The Hitman and his colleagues have gone to a lot of work with their site and their analysis.
He deserves credit for that.

Just because his opinion may be different to another posters, it doesn't make him wrong.
We won't know that for 6 months.

No people aren't arguing over who can see the future they are questioning very very dodgy analysis.

Here are some examples.
The odds of winning back to back are low so the odd of winning back to back to back are even lower.
THEY ARE NOT. They are higher.
The odds of getting 6 tails in a row when tossing a coin are 1/64.
The odds of getting 6 tails in a row having already achieved 5 in a row are only 1/2. BUT consider this. If the coin has already shown 5 tails in a row there is a slight chance that the coin is slightly weighted in favour of tails.
A team that has won 2 premierships and is in line for a third typically finds it difficult because after two, people retire they have achieved what they came to do. Hawthorn has IMPROVED its list from the best team in the competition to an even better one. The swans who's position last season was inflated by their draw, cola, etc have lost players without replacing them like for like.

If I beat up a bunch of two year old short people in wheel chairs and won every fight, I might have an overinflated sense of my abilities and expectations when going toe to toe with mike tyson.

No, no one is raising their hackles in righteous indignation they are simply pointing out the analysis isn't perhaps an analysis and more a collection of facts about the team.

For mine though, it's the explanation and the defense of the analysis cropping up in this thread that I find most interesting.

Still I always enjoy reading anything on the hawks.

Certainly Port Adelaide are a prospect to keep in mind,but trying to justify the swans as a force based on last year is like trying to claim the popularity of a political leader that got 70% of the vote in a national election as the only candidate that ran.

 

[Davo23]

There's no way in hell i'm coming on this board after any losses this year. By the sounds of it the majority of people think we're going to win every game. It wouldn't surprise me to see us come anywhere from 1-4. Below that is when i'd be surprised.

If it was so clear cut that we were going to come in at number 1 then we'd be unbackable favourites and everyone on the main board would be saying the same thing. A look can/will happen throughout the football season. Those of you thinking we're guaranteed number 1 are delusional.

I don't really think anyone is expecting to win every game, even our dominant team of the 80's never went a season without losing at least 3 games each year. It's just that some of us know who the Hitman is and know that he has a raving ego!

My thought about this year is that 2014 ended so perfectly that 2015 will be so much harder.

But we will be in the mix, I'm sure.

 

[Blaze Storm]

We weren't the dominant team last season; we were the dominant team on the most important day. And that's great!

Argy mentioned odds - that's important to remember. The odds of going back-to-back are so long, so what do you think the odds of going back-to-back-to-back are?

This is false logic.

Statistics do not work like that. If you flip a coin 100 times and they all show up heads, the chance of the next one being heads is still 50%.

 

[grumbleguts]

This is false logic.

Statistics do not work like that. If you flip a coin 100 times and they all show up heads, the chance of the next one being heads is still 50%.

Read three posts up. ;-)

 

[Brishawk]

Argy mentioned odds - that's important to remember. The odds of going back-to-back are so long, so what do you think the odds of going back-to-back-to-back are?

While I am quoting the The Hitman this post is aimed at everyone dabbling in statistics.

Firstly, premierships are not independent events. What happened last season is a leading indicator of the outcome of the next season.

24% of teams to win a premiership go on to win the premiership in the next season.

25% of teams that lose a premiership go on to win the premiership in the next season.

17% of teams that lose a premiership go onto win the premiership two years later.

All these rates are far above the classical assumption of a probability of 1/Number of teams e.g. that each team has a 1/18 chance of winning in 2015.

If we look deeper at the stats we can see that a sequence of 3 premierships has occurred six times in history. However, given a team has won the two previous premierships, teams have a 21% chance of winning three in a row. This is only slightly less of a rate than winning a sequence of two premierships i.e. having won back to back does little to reduce your chances of winning a third premiership. Only two teams in history have lost by 60+ points and gone onto win a flag in the next year. That equates to a 18% chance that Sydney will go onto win in 2015 given they lost by over 60 points. So without any hint of bias I can confidently say Hawthorn have a higher chance of winning the premiership than Sydney based on probability. When you also factor in the improvements made to Hawthorn's list against the degradation of Sydney's list and the circumstances behind Sydney's soft run through the season and lack of injuries there is little reason to think Sydney's chances are better than the historical long run probability.

EDIT: BASED on above analysis Hawthorn should be $4.67 and Sydney should be $5.50 for the flag.

 

[Brant]

While I am quoting the The Hitman this post is aimed at everyone dabbling in statistics.

Firstly, premierships are not independent events. What happened last season is a leading indicator of the outcome of the next season.

24% of teams to win a premiership go on to win the premiership in the next season.

25% of teams that lose a premiership go on to win the premiership in the next season.

17% of teams that lose a premiership go onto win the premiership two years later.

All these rates are far above the classical assumption of a probability of 1/Number of teams e.g. that each team has a 1/18 chance of winning in 2015.

If we look deeper at the stats we can see that a sequence of 3 premierships has occurred six times in history. However, given a team has won the two previous premierships, teams have a 21% chance of winning three in a row. This is only slightly less of a rate than winning a sequence of two premierships i.e. having won back to back does little to reduce your chances of winning a third premiership. Only two teams in history have lost by 60+ points and gone onto win a flag in the next year. That equates to a 18% chance that Sydney will go onto win in 2015 given they lost by over 60 points. So without any hint of bias I can confidently say Hawthorn have a higher chance of winning the premiership than Sydney based on probability. When you also factor in the improvements made to Hawthorn's list against the degradation of Sydney's list and the circumstances behind Sydney's soft run through the season and lack of injuries there is little reason to think Sydney's chances are better than the historical long run probability.

EDIT: BASED on above analysis Hawthorn should be $4.67 and Sydney should be $5.50 for the flag.

Jesus... You're a wizard!

 

[cryptor]

Are the chances of winning a third in a row lower, or is a team capable of winning three in a row just that rare?

A 25% chance at this point of the season is bloody good when you consider the winner tends to come from the top 2 and occasionally 3rd.

Without looking up the numbers I'd guess the breakdown at the start of finals is about
1st: 45%
2nd: 40%
3rd: 12%
Other: 3%

If our chances of winning the flag right now before round 1 are already twice as good as those of the team that finish 3rd after the final round then that's bloody exciting for us and why wouldn't you be bullish.

 

[Brishawk]

Having won back to back we have a 21% chance based on historical frequency. That is roughly the same as going back to back having already won one flag (24%).

Another interesting thing I noticed when doing up these stats was that a teams best chance of winning a second flag is in the next two seasons. Bizarrely the next best chance after that is seven years after the first flag. Just so happens it is seven years since 2008. Time to load up I reckon

 

[Procrastinator35]

Having won back to back we have a 21% chance based on historical frequency. That is roughly the same as going back to back having already won one flag (24%).

Another interesting thing I noticed when doing up these stats was that a teams best chance of winning a second flag is in the next two seasons. Bizarrely the next best chance after that is seven years after the first flag. Just so happens it is seven years since 2008. Time to load up I reckon

So....what are the ODDS on the Quaddy Brissy?

 

[skwunk]

Thought you'd want to check out our new site's 2015 season preview for the Hawks.

Genuinely after the thoughts of fellow Hawthorn fans and interested in feedback, as well as whether you think the three-peat is on.

I've posted the whole thing here, sans images, to comply with the BigFooty anti-spamming protocols; hopefully that's okay for the mods. I'm not the author but it's my site and I've posted it because I want to respectively engage. If you want to see the version on the site you can by clicking here.

2015 season preview: Hawthorn

By Andrew Lowcock

LAST CAMPAIGN

If Hawthorn fans could freeze time, they’d stop it not long after 5:00pm on Saturday the 27th of September, 2014 – and never hit play again. That is when the Hawks were done completing their piece de resistance: a 63-point grand final demolition of the highly fancied Swans, the same club who prised away their biggest star 12 months earlier.

The grand final was truly a perfect storm, a day on which everything that could possibly go right, did. It ran contrary to a season where injuries to a swathe of players, and an illness that forced coach Alastair Clarkson to step aside for more than a month, wound the already long odds of a back-to-back campaign even further out.

After the grand final it felt, at the time, like the culmination of the Alastair Clarkson era. That is until you realise there is no reason for the Hawks to commence any sort of slide, as fresh-faced talent like Brad Hill and Will Langford continue to rejuvenate the team, and the likes of Jordan Lewis, Grant Birchall and Jarryd Roughead – the top three in Hawthorn’s 2014 best and fairest – remain in their prime years.

I KNOW WHAT YOU DID LAST SUMMER

Hawthorn again used the trade and free agency period to bolster their already deep and talented squad. This time the prime target was Melbourne defender and former All Australian James Frawley – and they got their man.

At 26, Frawley is equipped to assume Brian Lake’s duties of taking the opponent’s most dangerous key forward, although in 2015 he’ll have to share those duties with Lake and may be required to play on smaller opponents.

The key challenge for Frawley will be proving that a new environment is all he needs to recapture that All Australian form of 2010 and that his disappointing recent performances were more a symptom of his old club’s malaise.

The other big acquisition was with a view to the longer term. The Hawks traded their first round draft pick to Greater Western Sydney for Jono O’Rourke, who was the number two pick in the 2012 national draft, and played just nine games in two years. If he realises his junior potential, O’Rourke will add endurance and further speed to the Hawks’ midfield, an attribute the club – criticised for a lack of leg speed just a few years ago – is now abundant with.

As is the fate of successful clubs, the Hawks did have to shed a bit of depth as players looked for senior opportunities elsewhere. Kyle Cheney and Luke Lowden were traded to Adelaide, but the departure that could sting most was Mitch Hallahan’s departure to Gold Coast. Hallahan had shown glimpses of his potential with a 25-disposal effort against Sydney in Round eight.

There was also a fond farewell to dual premiership player Brad Sewell, who retired after being edged out of the side during the finals, finishing on exactly 200 games.

THE CHALLENGE

There only appears two challenges for Hawthorn in 2015: the weight of history and the passage of time, both of which they can do little about.

Only one team has gone back-to-back-to-back since 1960 – the year before Hawthorn won the first of their 12 flags – and even the Brisbane Lions of 2003 did it the hard way, having to win a preliminary final away from home and carrying several weary and tired bodies to one last triumph.

The Hawks will be hoping that lynchpins Sam Mitchell (32 years old), Josh Gibson (31), Shaun Burgoyne (32), captain Luke Hodge (31 in June) and Brian Lake (33) can avoid injuries when it matters and all can arrive in September as fit and firing as they did in 2014.

THE COACH

Embarking on his 11th season at the helm, Alastair Clarkson seems to have the hang of this coaching caper by now. A third premiership brought him level with Mick Malthouse; a fourth would enshrine his spot as one of the all-time greats, tying him with Leigh Matthews, Kevin Sheedy, David Parkin, Allan Jeans and Ron Barassi.

Even Clarkson’s time out with illness in 2014 couldn’t derail the Hawks train, with senior assistant Brendon Bolton winning all five of his games in charge.

THE STAR

2014 saw Jordan Lewis elevate himself into one of the competition’s absolute A-grade midfielders. With Sam Mitchell spending an increasing amount of time at half back, it’s Lewis’ midfield to lead now, and he led it splendidly, averaging an extra six disposals a game.

His meagre tally of 15 Brownlow votes last season did not do the first-time best and fairest winner’s season justice, though he did win a spot on the bench of the All Australian team.

ON THE RISE

Not even the most ardent Hawthorn fan could have forecast Will Langford’s rapid rise in 2014. Langford had only one game under his belt entering the year, and ended it with a best-on-ground performance in a preliminary final and three memorable grand final goals.

Capable of locking down an opponent as a tagger, with his knack of important goals and ability to win his own ball, Langford may soon find it is himself being the target of hard tags.

IN THE GUN

Ben McEvoy ended 2014 with a premiership medal, but it wasn’t an easy journey to the grand final for the Hawks’ star 2013 off-season recruit.

McEvoy found himself in the VFL at key moments of the year, including in the third week of September, but Clarkson showed his faith by recalling the former Saint for the finale in place of Jonathon Ceglar.

This must be the year McEvoy stamps his authority as Hawthorn’s first-choice ruckman, because the competition is becoming fierce and the club showed its faith by trading away prospect Luke Lowden.

BEST 22

B: Josh Gibson – James Frawley – Ben Stratton
HB: Matthew Suckling – Brian Lake – Grant Birchall
C: Bradley Hill – Luke Hodge – Isaac Smith
HF: Cyril Rioli – Jarryd Roughead – Shaun Burgoyne
F: Luke Breust – Jack Gunston – Paul Puopolo
FOLL: Ben McEvoy – Jordan Lewis – Sam Mitchell
INT: David Hale – Will Langford – Liam Shiels – Jed Anderson

THE VERDICT

Hawthorn are in great shape for a tilt at their first three-peat, with Sydney and Port Adelaide again ready to be the stiffest on-field challengers. Only time will tell whether age and history will prove to be insurmountable challenges.

OUR PREDICTION

We have the Hawks finishing third at the end of the home and away season, with a third consecutive premiership a very real possibility.

 

[CD Xbow]

We weren't the dominant team last season; we were the dominant team on the most important day. And that's great!

Argy mentioned odds - that's important to remember. The odds of going back-to-back are so long, so what do you think the odds of going back-to-back-to-back are?

Do we have the talent to do it? Yup. Can we do it? Of course. Should it be the expectation? I'm not so sure.

We were probably toast if we lost that game against the Crows last year. Port had us on the ropes and had the opportunity to knock us out at the end of the prelim. We had a very unlucky year with injuries, but we were absolutely cherry ripe (bar Rioli, who still made the big dance) for finals.

Some of that is management and some of it is luck. Stuey Fox and Chris Fagan are the first to admit that. You do what you can and then let it ride - that's footy over a seven-month stretch.

We're as well placed for a premiership run as we've ever been, but if you think it's a fait accompli then you're delusional. And odds are you're going to be wrong.

I think you are wrong about the odds

That's a gambler's fallacy. We don't have to win three premierships in a row, we just have to win one. The long odds on 3 in a row only apply if you haven't got one. But we already have two. So we just need one more.

It's like saying "I've flipped heads twice therefore the chance of a third heads is low, because 3 heads in a row is so unlikely"

This is a fallacy, because because the third flip of the coin is independent of the first two. The odds of heads on the third flip are still Fifty-Fifty. So even though the odds of three heads in a row is one in eight prior to those three flips occurring, the odds of heads on the third flip itself is still 50/50 no matter what the prior two flips were (even if they were both heads).

IIRC the odds of back to back is 18% after the first premiership, but the odds of doing a three peat once you have gone back to back is higher at 24%. After your first premiership the odds are only 4.32% of doing the threepeat ie 24/100 x 18/100 = 432/10000 =4.32

 

[MrPremiership]

This is how we came to our ladder prediction: http://meilikefootball.com/2015-season-previews/

To be honest, there was basically nothing between Sydney, Port and Hawthorn. I think Port got second on countback over Hawthorn because one more contributor thought they'd win the flag than Hawthorn.

Richmond 4th?

 

[Hawks1994]

Richmond 4th?

Previewers were clearly on LSD

 

[MrFujiMoto]

For the record, I'm a Hawthorn member.

There's a reason why Sydney was heavy favourite going into the grand final, and I'd defy and Hawk to say they expected what unfolded on September 27 to pan out that way. Win, maybe. But that kind of dominance and perfection? Nah.

Not here to defend Sydney - I dislike them as much as anyone. But they're a very, very good team. They have the best forward in the league, an excellent two-way midfield and the depth to ensure they get back into the top four and maybe another grand final.

Sounds similar to us, really. We have a better defence, but if they figure out what we did in 2013 - that the best use of Franklin isn't reliance but as part of a broader unit - they will be difficult to beat.

By the way, remember the prediction of third is after the H&A season. Last season's third-placed team had the same number of wins as the first and second - it means diddly squat in terms of premiership hopes.

Check the preview thread. I think I had us by about 24 - 40. I knew we would get them, and fairly easily. 10 goals easy?? nope but easy.. I think they are unbalanced as a team, especially after this off season.

In their back half they have lost Mal, equally their best in the GF and their only decent ball user off half back. That makes them VERY susceptible if you get them out of the center. Jetta is being trialed there but his defensive ability makes Suckers look Like the love child of Chris Langford and Chris Mew. They have Richards, Grundy and Shaw all back there, which should be good but they don't gel together too well and we show that up better than anyone.
In the midfield they are very one paced inside and they have been unable to change that up. We can be one paced when we have Mitch, Hodge and Lewy in there but how often do we run that setup, it is more a luxury that we can run that set up if we have to these days. They have to run Kennedy, Parker, Jack or McVeigh and out of those you will rarely see Kennedy or Parker out of there because they don't have the ability to really play elsewhere. We can rotate 4 completely different players through the center sqaure at every single center bounce and we often do during a game. Their outside speed goes into hiding as soon as you muscle them, and that is not just from the GF. When we put the hammer down in round 18 the same culprits went to water. I am looking at Hannebury, Jetta, Rohan and even their co captain McVeigh. Jack, Kennedy and Pyke seem the only center square guys with real ticker. Parker has gone missing too often for me to consider he has the real ticker when the brown hits the fan.
Up forward they have 3 to 4 tall targets and 3 of those guys will not, or cannot, chase out of defense. It is no coincidence that we score so heavily against the Swans and we are one of the best teams at setting up off half back. Gibbo, Suckers, Birchall, Stratton, Gunston, Breust, Hodge, Burgoyne and Mitchell, plus whoever the hell else we throw down there through a game, must be amazed at the time they are allowed off half back when we play Sydney. They have no quality smalls, other than McGlynn and Parker is about the only mid that has shown anything when pushed forward.

The Swans have quality on the list, but they are not necessarily a quality list in it's entirety. Soft draw, great injury run and some dashes of elite talent got them there last year. The first of those three alone has already changed this year and that would be enough to see them slide a bit this year. If you want to have a look at the difference in mettle and quality depth between the 2 sides have a look at Sydney in 2013 and us in 2013 and 2014. Both years we have had one of the toughest draws and horrendous injuries, yet we have soldiered through and gone back to back. We saw what happened to them with a dream draw but a bad run of injuries in 2013. Chalk and cheese our two clubs and I love the way we respond. We are a tough as nails clubs, Sydney have proven to be somewhat a bunch of powder puffs when things get hot in the kitchen.

Too many holes in key areas - outside speed in big games and rebound from defense. I think they will be 4 - 6 and making up the numbers, like 2013.

 

[MrFujiMoto]

Richmond 4th?

4 and 9 look somewhat similar!!

 

[bris tarangau]

Too many holes in key areas - outside speed in big games and rebound from defense. I think they will be 4 - 6 and making up the numbers, like 2013.

Agree. Freo found that out about Sydney in 2013 PF. My tip, Sydney to fall out of top 4 this season.