How good are we at developing players?

didaksrightfoot

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No club perhaps in the competition does it worse with those over 23s regarding development.

Guys in their mid 20s still have the capacity to improve, and generally guys when they hit 30s might lose a bit of speed or have a higher incidence of injury, but even then they can still add small things to their games. We're just not seeing any of that at Collingwood.
What has Cloke added? Brown? Goldsack? Macaffer? Blair? You can look through that 2010 premiership squad and ask the question who has improved and you wouldn't jump up and down and enthusiastically say anyone. Beams (now gone - improved in 2012) and Reid for that 2011 season were really those only improvers, but we haven't really seen it from anyone else.

Fremantle with Ross Lyon are our opposite in that their relatively poor developing those under 22s but then once their in their mid 20s and even when they hit 30, his guys still have the capacity to improve and we saw the same with his teams at St Kilda.
You've also got other perennial contenders in Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Fremantle and St Kilda who only more recently have dropped off though still have some really good veterans. Often on those worse sides you'll see veterans drop away earlier, perhaps this is them knowing their not on a contender and not putting in as hard relative to those veterans on contending teams who desperately want to be part of a premiership or at least some finals success.

Collingwood even despite until last year having the longest run of consecutive finals appearances in the competition just haven't been able to like those other good teams keep the veterans going or even get that development from their mid career guys.

Overall it's greatly troubling that your mid career and late career guys are not continuing to develop or in the case of the late career guys, deteriorating at such a rapid rate. It's highly unusual for a team that has been so successful, and to be successful it's a critical element to winning that at the present time is missing and not where it needs to be for the ultimate success to again be experienced.

That is a very interesting view, and honestly not one I had really put much thought into before... but the more I think about it, probably the more I agree with you, to an extent. There probably is something in the fact that, since 2010, we haven't really been a team where the veterans have stepped up and gone to the next level when we really needed them to.

But I do think that there are a number of factors that you have to take into account, and for some of the guys that should really be entering their peaks now (Reid, Brown) - injuries would be a big reason for that plateau (or actually downturn) in development.
I also think that we, probably more than most clubs, may overestimate the potential in some of our young players... so having the right expectations to start off with will also determine how we view someones trajectory. (Eg. I think putting Goldsack on that list probably doesn't really help your case IMO - he was always going to be a limited/role player... was never going to have much more improvement in him, and if anything has just added a bit more flexibility)... also, where would you list Caff developing into one of the leagues best taggers (if only for a limited period of time)- it may not be seen as developing skills per say (though I would disagree), but is about finding the best way for him to contribute on the field... and again, after an ACL.
And how good actually were our 2010 group? Talking specifically about the mid-lower 22 guys: were these champion players ready to take the next level? Or were they limited players who were made to look much better than they were because the style we played suited our team perfectly: pressure, pressure, pressure defensively, and offensively exploit the extra space on the wings so turnovers weren't costly.
Look at the progress of the guys who have moved to other teams since then... and it may just be that they were never thaaaat good as players. (other than Ceglar, I can't think of another player who has improved since leaving Collingwood).
 
That is a very interesting view, and honestly not one I had really put much thought into before... but the more I think about it, probably the more I agree with you, to an extent. There probably is something in the fact that, since 2010, we haven't really been a team where the veterans have stepped up and gone to the next level when we really needed them to.

I think that is because we have had such a Terrible Run of Injuries
 

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Taking off the rose colored glasses I think we are top 6 for developing young talent.
My concern is the leadership is not top 6 anymore with the likes of Maxy and Ball now gone, we had a good core of leadership from around 2005 to about 2010 then I feel we have been falling back ever since.

There is some signs of good leadership now coming into the club, but I think we won't see this for another year or two.

Like the looks of Adams, Moore and Elliot who seem to be destined for leadership.

Hopefully a few others put their hands up and set the tone as this young group of potentially laden players are coming through together.

I don't think we have a player that demands his team mates to step up and until this is changed I think we might be making up the numbers.

Will be interesting to see Adelaide after appointing Tex as captain and if the players follow his lead.

I love Pendles as a player but I wish he was more of a demanding captain, it seems a little fabricated (Leading teams) where with a Voss or Selwood it comes naturally.

Only time will tell.

Say what you like of Maxwell as a player, as a captain he was first class. I feel we are missing that on-ground leadership that Maxwell was so adept at. Love Pendlebury, but he doesn't have that presence that commands attention. I agree there is a lack of senior leadership on the ground. Ball is another fantastic leader that comes to mind, that unfortunately we've lost. Buckley recognised Maxwell's outstanding leadership qualities and hopefully he pulls another one (or two) out of bag.
 
Say what you like of Maxwell as a player, as a captain he was first class. I feel we are missing that on-ground leadership that Maxwell was so adept at. Love Pendlebury, but he doesn't have that presence that commands attention. I agree there is a lack of senior leadership on the ground. Ball is another fantastic leader that comes to mind, that unfortunately we've lost. Buckley recognised Maxwell's outstanding leadership qualities and hopefully he pulls another one (or two) out of bag.

Was Bucks the only 1 that Backed Maxy to be Captain?
 
It has played a part - of that there is no doubt. I haven't really seen any hint of anyone stepping up though!

I thought both Beams had come on very well but Sadly he walked out
 
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It is hard to find a player past his mid twenties who's stepped up since Bucks took over (but that's only a small sample size and the injuries have to have played a large part in this) but when he was appointed coach everyone knew he was on a hiding to nowhere. If we'd stayed up the top everyone would have said it was Mick's work anyway and if we went downhill then it's Buckley's fault. Would have been almost impossible for Bucks to get more out of the team after 2011, they were amazing at that point.

Someone mentioned Macaffer which is probably the closest Bucks has gone. Beams had his best year under Bucks but he wasn't in his mid twenties or later. He did however, reach a level in that year that would be hard to top no matter what age you are. So I guess you need to ask whether it's better to get the best out of them earlier? Just for arguments sake, maybe players having breakout years so late under Mick was actually a failing on his behalf (not being able to get them to reach their potential earlier) :p

I think Sidebottom will be a perfect test subject for this. Varcoe is another who I think can improve (that's mainly because I think he could be over his injuries though) but this is his first year on our list so even if he does it doesn't really fit the criteria in my view. The age profile of our list suggests it'll be a few years before we get to see if Bucks can get more out of the players post mid 20's. We have so much youth on our list that there aren't a great deal of mid 20's players there. I think most who are over their mid 20's currently on our list have already peaked. Reid could still improve or get back to his 2011 form if injuries permit but I can't think of many others and I'm currently posting from my phone which makes it harder to gather and study the evidence before I post.
 
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That is a very interesting view, and honestly not one I had really put much thought into before... but the more I think about it, probably the more I agree with you, to an extent. There probably is something in the fact that, since 2010, we haven't really been a team where the veterans have stepped up and gone to the next level when we really needed them to.

But I do think that there are a number of factors that you have to take into account, and for some of the guys that should really be entering their peaks now (Reid, Brown) - injuries would be a big reason for that plateau (or actually downturn) in development.
I also think that we, probably more than most clubs, may overestimate the potential in some of our young players... so having the right expectations to start off with will also determine how we view someones trajectory. (Eg. I think putting Goldsack on that list probably doesn't really help your case IMO - he was always going to be a limited/role player... was never going to have much more improvement in him, and if anything has just added a bit more flexibility)... also, where would you list Caff developing into one of the leagues best taggers (if only for a limited period of time)- it may not be seen as developing skills per say (though I would disagree), but is about finding the best way for him to contribute on the field... and again, after an ACL.
And how good actually were our 2010 group? Talking specifically about the mid-lower 22 guys: were these champion players ready to take the next level? Or were they limited players who were made to look much better than they were because the style we played suited our team perfectly: pressure, pressure, pressure defensively, and offensively exploit the extra space on the wings so turnovers weren't costly.
Look at the progress of the guys who have moved to other teams since then... and it may just be that they were never thaaaat good as players. (other than Ceglar, I can't think of another player who has improved since leaving Collingwood).

The latter part of that theory would imply that footballers have limited potential or a maximum ceiling. I don't see it that way. I see football and in any pursuit continued ability to grow, as you get better it becomes more and more difficult to find further ways to improve and experience that further improvement, particularly as you age. But none-the-less I still see there is plenty of ability for that to happen.

As well as Ceglar I'd have Michael Hartley as a big time improver. For anyone who watches VFL football he really broke out and became a very reliable key defender.

We had some guys change to roles that suited their existing skillsets and that's something under Nathan's coaching he really has done well - moving Lumumba to the wing etc. I just don't tend to believe all of Johnson/Jolly/Tarrant/L.Brown/Maxwell/Didak/Krakouer/Swan/Shaw/Lumumba/Dawes/Wellingham/Goldsack/Macaffer/Toovey/Cloke/Thomas/N.Brown/Pendlebury/Reid/Blair had a ceiling that beyond the 2011 season couldn't progress further. That's all the players we had in either of our grand final teams from 2010/2011 born in 1989 or earlier.
A lot of those guys after the 2011 season you'd look at and think further improvement could be experienced from, but we haven't seen it from one player.
When it's across that large a size of the group and that total portion of that group. That's when you can recognise it's pretty obvious that something is not right.
 
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I just don't tend to believe all of Johnson/Jolly/Tarrant/L.Brown/Maxwell/Didak/Krakouer/Swan/Shaw/Lumumba/Dawes/Wellingham/Goldsack/Macaffer/Toovey/Cloke/Thomas/N.Brown/Pendlebury/Reid/Blair had a ceiling that beyond the 2011 season couldn't progress further. That's all the players we had in either of our grand final teams from 2010/2011 born in 1989 or earlier.
A lot of those guys after the 2011 season you'd look at and think further improvement could be experienced from, but we haven't seen it from one player.
When it's across that large a size of the group and that total portion of that group. That's when you can recognise it's pretty obvious that something is not right.
Well you couldn't honestly expect any of
Johnson/Jolly/Tarrant/L.Brown/Maxwell/Didak/Krakouer/Swan to improve from that list after Buckley took over.

Shaw/Lumumba/Dawes/Wellingham/Goldsack/Macaffer/Toovey/Cloke/Thomas/N.Brown/Pendlebury/Reid/Blair could possibly have improved but the two that probably had the greatest scope for improvement have already left in Wellingham and Dawes.

Pendlebury was already at a level that makes any improvement difficult to notice unless he becomes the outright best player in the comp.

It'll be interesting to see how Thomas goes this year at Carlton but the signs weren't looking good with his ankles. (On that note Josh Thomas will be an interesting one, maybe he can improve over the next couple of years).

Brown, Toovey and Reid and Macaffer have all been held back with injury.

Don't think anyone ever expected Blair to become a star, but yes he could have improved.

Cloke is an interesting one, obvious room for improvement and maybe there is a coach out there that could get the best out of him but we may never know.

Macaffer reinvented himself and has had a bad run with injury.

Then there's Goldsack, I think he's a difficult one in that I can't see him ever being a star player but I do think he has enough room for improvement left so that we can see a noticeable difference if all goes right.

PS. Mick wasn't plucking 25+ year olds out to have breakout seasons every year. There is a reason most of his hits came over our two most successful years in recent history.
 
Sep 22, 2010
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Hagla it's less intended to be a Nathan v Mick argument but rather Nathan v the competition.

The critical component is the theme as per my first post in this thread where there is if you break down the age demographics clear and consistent trends. It's highly irregular there is such a firm consistency with any data, let alone data relating to one team. But there just isn't an outlier. It's rather phenomenal really, just not in the way you'd as a Pies fan like.
 
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Hagla it's less intended to be a Nathan v Mick argument but rather Nathan v the competition.

The critical component is the theme as per my first post in this thread where there is if you break down the age demographics clear and consistent trends. It's highly irregular there is such a firm consistency with any data, let alone data relating to one team. But there just isn't an outlier. It's rather phenomenal really, just not in the way you'd as a Pies fan like.
Yah I get it, and maybe I am just too one eyed to really look at it in an objective manner. But I just see so many other reasons why these players haven't continued to improve. I am not disheartened by the lack of improvement from those players in the slightest as they all sit about exactly where I'd expect them to given the circumstances. If you look at each case individually you will see that each one has his own story rather than looking at them as a group of statistics alone.
 

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No club perhaps in the competition does it worse with those over 23s regarding development.

Guys in their mid 20s still have the capacity to improve, and generally guys when they hit 30s might lose a bit of speed or have a higher incidence of injury, but even then they can still add small things to their games. We're just not seeing any of that at Collingwood.
What has Cloke added? Brown? Goldsack? Macaffer? Blair? You can look through that 2010 premiership squad and ask the question who has improved and you wouldn't jump up and down and enthusiastically say anyone. Beams (now gone - improved in 2012) and Reid for that 2011 season were really those only improvers, but we haven't really seen it from anyone else.

Fremantle with Ross Lyon are our opposite in that their relatively poor developing those under 22s but then once their in their mid 20s and even when they hit 30, his guys still have the capacity to improve and we saw the same with his teams at St Kilda.
You've also got other perennial contenders in Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Fremantle and St Kilda who only more recently have dropped off though still have some really good veterans. Often on those worse sides you'll see veterans drop away earlier, perhaps this is them knowing their not on a contender and not putting in as hard relative to those veterans on contending teams who desperately want to be part of a premiership or at least some finals success.

Collingwood even despite until last year having the longest run of consecutive finals appearances in the competition just haven't been able to like those other good teams keep the veterans going or even get that development from their mid career guys.


Overall it's greatly troubling that your mid career and late career guys are not continuing to develop or in the case of the late career guys, deteriorating at such a rapid rate. It's highly unusual for a team that has been so successful, and to be successful it's a critical element to winning that at the present time is missing and not where it needs to be for the ultimate success to again be experienced.

That's a bigger concern for me. I think our youth development isn't a concern but the lack of longevity among our playing group is a vexed question. Is it the type of player we recruit? Is it the game style we play? Is it training? Is it just plain bad luck?
 
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Mid year players we had that could of stepped up where Mostly Traded/Lost in FA since Bucks came Head Coach:

  • Heath Shaw
  • Hertier Lumumba
  • Dayne Beams
  • Sharrod Wellingham
  • Chris Dawes
  • Tom Young
So we instead brought in High Draft Picks for most of these Players
 
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Also, I'd reckon this would be a pretty normal statistic to see for any team that has had a recent tumble down the ladder. I'd reckon it's even more common if that same team that was taking a tumble down the ladder was also a premier before falling. I will look into it when I get home tomorrow, so I can use my laptop. The Saints, and the Bulldogs would probably be a good team to look at since they were both up and about with us. I expect them to have very similar statistics to us in this regard but a few years in advance and possibly more extreme than our own.
 
Also, I'd reckon this would be a pretty normal statistic to see for any team that has had a recent tumble down the ladder. I'd reckon it's even more common if that same team that was taking a tumble down the ladder was also a premier before falling. I will look into it when I get home tomorrow, so I can use my laptop. The Saints, and the Bulldogs would probably be a good team to look at since they were both up and about with us. I expect them to have very similar statistics to us in this regard but a few years in advance and possibly more extreme than our own.

The Final 4 sides from 2010 are interesting to see.

Saints are Wooden Spooners, Dogs are Bottom 6, we Just missed Finals and Cats finished in Top 4 but went out in Straight Sets this Final Series
 
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That's a bigger concern for me. I think our youth development isn't a concern but the lack of longevity among our playing group is a vexed question. Is it the type of player we recruit? Is it the game style we play? Is it training? Is it just plain bad luck?

As per my first post in this thread I strongly agree that our young player development is not a concern. We're excellent at that specifically with the new ones.

Longevity is the issue. I completely agree. And that's what it comes down to with the veterans declining so early. And there also seems a relationship with those mid career guys not continuing their development with a really linear relationship between age and player development/player decline, which while to a small extent should be the case and is the way things will always trend, it shouldn't be such a linear relationship.
 
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Also, I'd reckon this would be a pretty normal statistic to see for any team that has had a recent tumble down the ladder. I'd reckon it's even more common if that same team that was taking a tumble down the ladder was also a premier before falling. I will look into it when I get home tomorrow, so I can use my laptop. The Saints, and the Bulldogs would probably be a good team to look at since they were both up and about with us. I expect them to have very similar statistics to us in this regard but a few years in advance and possibly more extreme than our own.

The Saints and Dogs have both declined, but their veterans haven't and certainly not like ours.

With the Saints I'd direct you to Riewoldt, Hayes and Sean Dempster. Sam Fisher is another on the rare occasion he is healthy, still incredibly productive. Riewoldt, Hayes and Fisher have all remained largely the same players. They have all had their peaks and valley's, but they essentially have throughout remained the same players. And in the case of Dempster in his late 20s he suddenly became one of the best backmen in the game.

With the Dogs look at the guys who played in that 2010 Dogs team. You had Boyd, Cross, Murphy, Lake, Giansiracusa and even our Ben Hudson. All those guys other than now Giansiracusa and Hudson who have both just retired are still in the game. Then they had the likes of Barry Hall and Brad Johnson on that team who both played into their 30s and had fruitful careers.
Similarly as with these guys with the Saints, the veterans from the Dogs still in the most part remained/remain highly productive, and haven't lost that identity that make them who they are out on the field.


Collingwood really regarding what happens with veterans when you see Didak and D.Thomas decline so early, and others seeming to just fall away and lose their identity at the age of 30 (post 2011). We're in a completely different category and have an unusual problem uncommon with recent contending clubs, actually developing young talent through the draft (unusual) but then on the reverse having what is happening with our veterans happen (nothing else like it in the game).
 
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The Saints and Dogs have both declined, but their veterans haven't and certainly not like ours.

With the Saints I'd direct you to Riewoldt, Hayes and Sean Dempster. Sam Fisher is another on the rare occasion he is healthy, still incredibly productive. Riewoldt, Hayes and Fisher have all remained largely the same players. They have all had their peaks and valley's, but they essentially have throughout remained the same players. And in the case of Dempster in his late 20s he suddenly became one of the best backmen in the game.

With the Dogs look at the guys who played in that 2010 Dogs team. You had Boyd, Cross, Murphy, Lake, Giansiracusa and even our Ben Hudson. All those guys other than now Giansiracusa and Hudson who have both just retired are still in the game. Then they had the likes of Barry Hall and Brad Johnson on that team who both played into their 30s and had fruitful careers.
Similarly as with these guys with the Saints, the veterans from the Dogs still in the most part remained/remain highly productive, and haven't lost that identity that make them who they are out on the field.


Collingwood really regarding what happens with veterans when you see Didak and D.Thomas decline so early, and others seeming to just fall away and lose their identity at the age of 30 (post 2011). We're in a completely different category and have an unusual problem uncommon with recent contending clubs, actually developing young talent through the draft (unusual) but then on the reverse having what is happening with our veterans happen (nothing else like it in the game).
Yep good point, I knew their top line players had continued on though, much the same as Swan, Cloke and Pendlebury have for us. I was more interested in how many of their mid 20's players had improved since then. As in how many have stepped up, the only Saint I can think of without looking at their list is Jack Steven and you mentioned Dempster so there's two I guess.
 

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Certainly we are on one of the best in this area.

Just from the A-grade standpoint from 2005 drafts onwards- Pendles, Thomas, Reid, Sidebottom and Beams.

Very good footballers- Elliott, Wellingham and Brown.

The rookies- Blair, Macaffer, (Wellingham also a rookie).

From a "home grown" standpoint, we have always been one of the top clubs in developing quality players.
 
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Yep good point, I knew their top line players had continued on though, much the same as Swan, Cloke and Pendlebury have for us. I was more interested in how many of their mid 20's players had improved since then. As in how many have stepped up, the only Saint I can think of without looking at their list is Jack Steven and you mentioned Dempster so there's two I guess.

Neither team really had the talent or drafted well.

It's more that next generation that is good, particularly for the Dogs and a few not yet knowns for the Saints who will in time be good. It's just a case of so many years up with those teams that they never generated that mid career group with only those guys drafted since 2010 those better talents coming through.

The Dogs had Ward and Harbrow, both of whom have gone. Same goes with Higgins. Minson is that other improver and improved really late, but that can with ruckmen happen. Their core group now is that group drafted from 2010 onward now.

The Saints are pretty much just Steven and Geary who came on later, with nearly none of the young guys developing while Lyon was there. It's only this past year where we've started with this next, new generation of Saints that we're starting to see some worthwhile talents emerge with Newnes the only guy who has been around a few years who has really shown any meaningful development otherwise from the drafts between 2010-2012.

So again very different developmental dynamics with both until really this year you could say poor developing young talent, excellent at maintaining veterans and both pretty good also with those mid career with their problems in those years of success more related in my view anyway to poor talent identification. WBD taking Christian Howard? Seriously? And the Saints really not bringing in anyone of note for a long time there.
 

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Just an "out of left field" thought here, but how many of the other teams that develop their mid to older players better than us HAVE THEM TARGETED AS OFTEN OR AS MUCH by other teams or the media. It seems like straight after the 2010-2011 seasons we were FAIR GAME for everyone. We had assistant coaches poached during finals, our players (Cloke, Pendlebury, Thomas,) were all targeted by the media as free agents (thanks very much for the AFL bringing in that one just when our player stocks in that age group were at an all time high) whilst others like Wellingham, Toovey, Beams were all chased by interstate clubs with a lot of help from the media. Of all the top level sides from that 2007-2011 era we've been done over the most by free agency. And let's not kid ourselves it's not just the guns you lose to this AFL inspired "game evening upper" it's the ones that have to deal with the constant innuendo and media attention that also fall by the wayside when they are supposed to be hitting their peaks as players. The Hawks got around it cleverly by keeping the core guns (except Buddy) and bringing in mature aged bit players (like we did with Jolly and Ball) and the Cats just had that unbelievable group that no-one could seem to prise apart (yes I know they lost GAJ). The Swans had the AFL bolstering their stocks wherever they could and Freo....well that bought Rossy Lyon.

My point? Many of our mid to older players have been chased around and poached when they should have been just reaching their peaks for us. Many of the successful assistant coaches who had tutored the young guns of 2010 were poached away from the club also. When you lose good people, you lose that continuity and development. Headhunting happens in many spheres of business, it just seems to me that we've been gutted since 2011 and it will now take 3-4 years to get that new core of guns to come through together again.
 

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The latter part of that theory would imply that footballers have limited potential or a maximum ceiling. I don't see it that way. I see football and in any pursuit continued ability to grow, as you get better it becomes more and more difficult to find further ways to improve and experience that further improvement, particularly as you age. But none-the-less I still see there is plenty of ability for that to happen.

As well as Ceglar I'd have Michael Hartley as a big time improver. For anyone who watches VFL football he really broke out and became a very reliable key defender.

We had some guys change to roles that suited their existing skillsets and that's something under Nathan's coaching he really has done well - moving Lumumba to the wing etc. I just don't tend to believe all of Johnson/Jolly/Tarrant/L.Brown/Maxwell/Didak/Krakouer/Swan/Shaw/Lumumba/Dawes/Wellingham/Goldsack/Macaffer/Toovey/Cloke/Thomas/N.Brown/Pendlebury/Reid/Blair had a ceiling that beyond the 2011 season couldn't progress further. That's all the players we had in either of our grand final teams from 2010/2011 born in 1989 or earlier.
A lot of those guys after the 2011 season you'd look at and think further improvement could be experienced from, but we haven't seen it from one player.
When it's across that large a size of the group and that total portion of that group. That's when you can recognise it's pretty obvious that something is not right.

Ok I agree with the overall point you are trying to make, but I wouldn't lump all those guys into the same basket. Lets go through them one-by-one (because thats how I like to do things):

First group - too old expect anymore development after 2010. (I note your comments about people being able to add facets to there game later on... but you cannot ignore the average trajectory of players - there is a reason players decline in their later years and are forced to retire - otherwise we'd have a bunch of 40-50 year olds still playing).
Johnson was 29 in 2010. Some of his best years were 2009-11. Far from being a guy that didn't have some sort of progress late in his career.
Jolly was 29 in 2010 - and was a great Ruck for us that year... his body shut down somewhere around 2012, which is as expected for a Ruckman... doesn't fit this argument at all.
Tarrant - returned to us as a 30 year old... had a very good first season back... can't really expect much more from him at that age.
L Brown - 2011 was his final year... don't see any way you can blame Bucks for anything here. And at that stage had showed that as a club (Malthouse?) we were definitely able to get the best out of him in his twilight years.
Maxwell - again doesnt fit the argument. IMO played some of his best footy in his final years (especially this year) - maybe not stats-wise, but definitely from a leadership perspective... wouldn't want anything more from him.
Didak - Can't blame coaching staff at all IMO for Didaks last couple of years. His body was shot, he had no lateral movement, and could not hold a tackle because of his shoulders - was basically a traffic cone on defence (and that was even when he came on fresh as a sub)... I was Did's biggest fan in his early years, and watched him closely at the end, and personally I think he was given too many opportunities - he was a liability.
Krak - really? I'm not sure what more you could've expected for a guy who spent 4 years away from the top level, and had ongoing family and health/body/conditioning issues. I think his 2010 Sandover and his 2011 for us were remarkable given what he had been through.

Now those guys are out of the way.
The next group:
Swan - was one of the absolute elite mids of the game from 09-13. (ages 25-28... actually a pretty late peaker)... and only last year did he drop off. Time will tell how much of that was injury/conditioning related. (I think his best is behind him, but should have a better year than last). Of the 2 guys of his ilk, Ablett has stayed at that level for at least 1 year longer... but Judd fell away a fair bit earlier.
Shaw - Like most here I am very disappointed in how things went with Heater - but who takes the blame for that? And we aren't talking about football ability with him. 2013 was primed for Heath to step up as a leader of this club... instead he showed the exact opposite, was bickering with his teammates for much of the year, and was a big part in us losing to Port in the final. Blame Bucks all you want for Heath not taking the step up, but IMO, those seeds had been sown many years beforehand.
Lumumba - Yep, here is one that fits your argument. (Probably the first on this list that I would agree to put down to footy ability/development). I've made it clear multiple times where I think we made a mistake with Heretier - he was at his best as a defender who made occasional booming runs up forward... we lost the balance somewhere, and once he lost his skills as a defender there was no going back to that role.
Dawes/Wellingham/Thomas - I have seen nothing from them at their new clubs to suggest that they had further potential for improvement that we hadn't tapped into... in fact at least 2 of them have declined.
Goldsack - I think he has made some developments since then - has added a bit of flexibility to his game, and has become known as one of the hardest tacklers in the competition.
Caff - again, I disagree and think we saw significant development from Caff. Missed 2 whole years of footy, and then became one of the best taggers in the game.
Toovey - agree he should of provided much more this year, particularly when the rest of our backline was so young... but again was a guy who most most of 2013 with injury.
Cloke - was disappointing last year... but 2010-2013 (23-26yo) were his best years... again doesnt quite fit your argument that we can't develop guys in those years. Still only 27, so I think we should see a lot of improvement moving forward from last year.
Nathan Brown - agree - this is a guy who showed a lot of development early, but then stalled and has not been at his best since. But again - has basically missed 2 whole seasons of footy since 2010.
Ben Reid - Probably peaked as a 20-22 year old. Was average in 2013, but we showed some creativity and used him effectively as a forward (again - that is some development). Again injuries.
Blair - agree would've loved to have seen more development from him... at the moment he's sort of stuck in no-mans land... provides enough to still be a regular in the 22 (but for how much longer?) but never took the step up.

Yeah, i'm not even going to fathom responding about Pendles. When someone is considered top 2-3 players in the game, it is incredibly harsh to say he hasn't developed. What it would be nice for him to add is the abillity to be a great captain... but as we often see that is a skill that very few players have, and is often more nature than nurture.
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So basically - of the guys who weren't too old, we have a bunch who have struggled with injury, and a few who had a poor 2014 but were very good prior to that. Only really leaves a few, IMO, who have disappointed in their development for a few years without having injuries to blame.
 
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