How long until a full blown civil war within the US?

[Pie eyed]

I don't know about civil war, but some serious s**t is gonna go down here in the not too distant future. The place is an absolute mess.

Thank god I'm getting myself and my family back to Australia shortly.

When it all goes to s**t who will get the TV rights?

 

[krisholio14]

When it all goes to s**t who will get the TV rights?

FOX lol

 

[Pie eyed]

More ads and self promo's

 

[kfc1]

When it all goes to s**t who will get the TV rights?

We'll probably get this in HD before the AFL Grand Final

 

[deltablues]

there's a very big difference between civil unrest and and civil war. a civil war has a motive, a goal. either independence or a take over or eradication of one group or another. a civil war by definition is organised.

Ferguson is an example of flat out civil unrest it has no goal has no motive its simply a frustrated an angry part of the population acting out. its goals are short sighted and selfish there is no direction, no centralised goal, no organisation.

First off forget militia forces the vast majority are strong nationalists they would fall on the side of security forces in cases of wide spread civil unrest, they aren't going to go off rioting. Militia forces are organised they have goals and most are highly political, most are older citizens. The exact opposite of what drives most cases of cvil unrest which is driven mostly by disorganised disaffected youths who don't have a strong political identity other then feeling they don't really have any say, control or voice to their concerns.

as for insurgents, this requires at the very least large scale local support. it requires people to identify as being part of something just as much as opposing the establishment.

your conflating many different arguments together. i think what your actually asking is given the size of the US, the size of the population combined with the current social and economic issues facing the country, would a large scale outbreak of civil unrest overwhelm security forces and lead to a breakdown into general lawlessness in areas where security forces cannot respond to. To that i would say in theory yes, but its highly unlikely.

as to how the US would respond to large scale civil unrest by armed citizens (something that you rarely see even in countries with no gun laws) well the same way everyone else responds, if the police can't handle it you send in the military with their APC's and tanks and choppers and they lockdown and isolate each area into manageable zones which are controlled via checkpoints, with Heavy machine guns and a strung out soldier on the end of it who's been told these people are trying to destroy the country you love so much you entered the army.

They then move in and isolate each zone into sectors to restrict the free flow of people and food and utilities like electricity and water. forcing people to comply with instructions if they want to eat and and not freeze to death. anyone who resists get's detained, if they can't be detained they get shot, anyone brandishing a gun gets shot. anytime the ground forces feel they can't handle the situation they bring in air support and more people get shot.

in fact without an organised group being behind the unrest to drive an insurgency or a coup or full scale civil war, every single time in modern history the unrest is brought under control within a matter of days. small flair ups may occur in pockets but they are contained and dealt with (which usually means people get shot)

and there simply is no indicators that suggest the USA is anywhere near the level of the populace being pissed off to cause large scale riots right across the nation.

whats more frightening is what would happen if it did, the groups most likely to engage in nationwide riots and looting are minorities specifically african americans and central americans, Because these groups are more likely to live in poverty, more likely to disaffected due to being discriminated against and having very few options. They also are less likely to have an organisation, less likely to own firearms due to costs and less likely to have training into how to use them properly.

on the other side not only do you have well armed well trained police and military forces you also have a large number of far right winged militia groups which would be more then willing to assist in local security in remote areas during unrest. and an undercurrent within american society that "blacks and Mexicans" are generally untrustworthy and responsible for crime.

If 9/11 is any indication the american people are unlikely to take a long hard look at how the situation developed and more likely want an easily identifiable target.

I agree with you on the bolded and with some of your other observations in a very general sense, and I can understand OP and similar posters here if their views are based on what they see in some of the main stream media (MSM). However, it's hard to get the vibe of a place unless you are actually on the the ground and if those posters were to actually live in the States then I think there may form a more balanced view.

As some background, the current Administration's political agenda (Hope and Change: fundamental transformation of America, etc) is straight out of Obama's fellow community organizer Saul Alinsky's handbook "Rules for Radicals" which promotes a divide and rule strategy relying on creating or leveraging crises for political power and control.

Alinsky's ideas gained popularity among the radical Left during the the '60's revolutionary student politics and liberation movements as part of the Marxist deconstruction philosophy championed by Jacques Derrida, and was instrumental in generating the Left's cultural identity movements of feminism, gay liberation, cultural relativism (all in the ceaseless search for victims and battles to fight) as part of securing a new "progressive" and more secular counterculture.

These movements were the Left's artillery as part of the on-going culture wars between the moral and cultural relativists (who are all on the Left) - and the more traditional rationalists (to whom "truth" is universal and not subject to agenda-driven "narratives" and the like).

This has resulted in a significant transformation of "normative" America and its traditional values, creating a kind of zero-sum polarizing situation (which is the game plan of the Administration in order to justify more "change") and is what much of the MSM (Left and Right) focuses on 24/7.

If the MSM is the sole source of information then it will give a misleading and overwrought impression where to the outsider the US can be perceived as some kind of powder keg leading to civil war/whatever - instead of being processed in the overall context of the USA and its institutions.

I won't respond to some comments about the South, other than to say that if those posters lived in the South like I do or visited folks here for a while y'all may change your mind

 

[Sydney Bloods]

you think Obama is left wing?

 

[deltablues]

Heh - I think you are putting wood on the fire, but you would know Obama is a Democrat. Democrats are left of center (in the US context of center, in that the US center is to the right of the Australian equivalent).

But many of Obama's actions and statements, his personal history, the folk he mixed with and still does, and the background of many of Obama's appointees and activist apparatchiks clearly indicate that he and his sponsors are significantly left of center.

For example - Obamacare, the bailing out of General Motors at the expense of secured ranking shareholders, the politicization of the IRS (= ATO in Oz) and the Justice Department, the increase in big government, the illegal immigration issues, and many other examples too numerous for this thread, evidence this conclusion.

 

[madmug]

The US wont have a full blown civil war. They have it too good to muck it all up. They have created enough straw men, overseas boogie men, so they will focus on them which creates fear & the desire to 'circle the waggons' & stick to the flag at home.

Yes they'll keep killing each other, the NRA will ensure they are fully armed to do so. We'll see more gated communities as a result, armoured cars, automatic weapons & segregation.

The only problem with this is the loony religious nutters. If they get control of the button, then we are all stuffed. We'll all be singing 'bringing in the sheeves' as we go up in a puff of smoke together.

In dog we trust

 

[deltablues]

The US wont have a full blown civil war. They have it too good to muck it all up. They have created enough straw men, overseas boogie men, so they will focus on them which creates fear & the desire to 'circle the waggons' & stick to the flag at home.

Yes they'll keep killing each other, the NRA will ensure they are fully armed to do so. We'll see more gated communities as a result, armoured cars, automatic weapons & segregation.

The only problem with this is the loony religious nutters. If they get control of the button, then we are all stuffed. We'll all be singing 'bringing in the sheeves' as we go up in a puff of smoke together.

In dog we trust

Madmug, awesome outline for a Dollar Store thriller. How close are you to publishing it?

 

[Pie eyed]

The US wont have a full blown civil war. They have it too good to muck it all up. They have created enough straw men, overseas boogie men, so they will focus on them which creates fear & the desire to 'circle the waggons' & stick to the flag at home.

Yes they'll keep killing each other, the NRA will ensure they are fully armed to do so. We'll see more gated communities as a result, armoured cars, automatic weapons & segregation.

The only problem with this is the loony religious nutters. If they get control of the button, then we are all stuffed. We'll all be singing 'bringing in the sheeves' as we go up in a puff of smoke together.

In dog we trust

The US Gov is pretty smart in regard to organised religion, they keep them pretty well consigned to pay TV money begging.
I get the feeling the average American would burn the whole church system down to keep their guns.

 

[madmug]

Madmug, awesome outline for a Dollar Store thriller. How close are you to publishing it?

Geez a dollar store

$A or $US?

 

[Sydney Bloods]

The US Gov is pretty smart in regard to organised religion, they keep them pretty well consigned to pay TV money begging.
I get the feeling the average American would burn the whole church system down to keep their guns.

now that would be interesting, Christians vs the gun lobby

 

[Power Raid]

The US seems to be recovering quite nicely now which demonstrates the nations resilience.

They have to find a way to distribute wealth more equally though as 29% have less than $10k wealth where the average Aussie has $220k in wealth.
We probably have too much as a ratio to liquidity but they clearly have way too little compared to the nations wealth.

 

[Power Raid]

now that would be interesting, Christians vs the gun lobby

I would get pay TV to see that.

 

[deltablues]

The US seems to be recovering quite nicely now which demonstrates the nations resilience.

They have to find a way to distribute wealth more equally though as 29% have less than $10k wealth where the average Aussie has $220k in wealth.
We probably have too much as a ratio to liquidity but they clearly have way too little compared to the nations wealth.

Yes, the US is very resilient. But you would not pick that up from the MSM.

But anyway, agree there is more of a discrepancy between the rich and poor re US/Oz (for a number of reasons which I refrain from mentioning here) and the "wealth" probably largely reflects the insane Oz real estate costs, if you are a home owner and factor in your equity as part of the wealth equation. Take that out (including mortgage repayments) and it may even up much.

Imo the real test is net disposable income.

On that topic, from my own experience since I retired (early) 4 years ago, I have been spending 3 months or more each year in Oz. I cannot believe how expensive it now is (and I can compare it to so-called expensive locales/cities I have lived in during my working life - such as London and Tokyo). Dollar for dollar my cost of living in Oz is at least 35% more than in the US (I exclude very expensive places/cities like SF and similar). My current car in Oz cost over double my US equivalent. My supermarket/booze runs/pub visits/ restaurant meals/clothing/filling up the tank/travel costs (motels/hotels) are way cheaper in the US.

 

[Power Raid]

Yes, the US is very resilient. But you would not pick that up from the MSM.

But anyway, agree there is more of a discrepancy between the rich and poor re US/Oz (for a number of reasons which I refrain from mentioning here) and the "wealth" probably largely reflects the insane Oz real estate costs, if you are a home owner and factor in your equity as part of the wealth equation. Take that out (including mortgage repayments) and it may even up much.

Imo the real test is net disposable income.

On that topic, from my own experience since I retired (early) 4 years ago, I have been spending 3 months or more each year in Oz. I cannot believe how expensive it now is (and I can compare it to so-called expensive locales/cities I have lived in during my working life - such as London and Tokyo). Dollar for dollar my cost of living in Oz is at least 35% more than in the US (I exclude very expensive places/cities like SF and similar). My current car in Oz cost over double my US equivalent. My supermarket/booze runs/pub visits/ restaurant meals/clothing/filling up the tank/travel costs (motels/hotels) are way cheaper in the US.

spot on

I dare say retiring overseas would be a sensible thing for most australians.

 

[Crankyhawk]

The Occupy Wall Street movement had some traction for a very short time then peetered out.
Idiots with guns will simply be criminalised and thrown in prision/gunned down by authorities.
I can't see any overall movement in America that would cause people to "rally to their flags" and divide the nation the way that they did over slavery, so it's a no from me for civil war in the USA.

Its harder to criminalise the idiots with guns there as all the idiots have free range gun access due to their ******* dumb constitution

 

[kranky al]

Heh - I think you are putting wood on the fire, but you would know Obama is a Democrat. Democrats are left of center (in the US context of center, in that the US center is to the right of the Australian equivalent).

But many of Obama's actions and statements, his personal history, the folk he mixed with and still does, and the background of many of Obama's appointees and activist apparatchiks clearly indicate that he and his sponsors are significantly left of center.

For example - Obamacare, the bailing out of General Motors at the expense of secured ranking shareholders, the politicization of the IRS (= ATO in Oz) and the Justice Department, the increase in big government, the illegal immigration issues, and many other examples too numerous for this thread, evidence this conclusion.

Im sorry but universal heath care isnt a particularly left wing thing any more

Its kinda like something that a society grows up enough and just does because its right

s**t mitt romney instituted it as governor.

 

[Deliverance]

Yes, the US is very resilient. But you would not pick that up from the MSM.

But anyway, agree there is more of a discrepancy between the rich and poor re US/Oz (for a number of reasons which I refrain from mentioning here) and the "wealth" probably largely reflects the insane Oz real estate costs, if you are a home owner and factor in your equity as part of the wealth equation. Take that out (including mortgage repayments) and it may even up much.

Imo the real test is net disposable income.

On that topic, from my own experience since I retired (early) 4 years ago, I have been spending 3 months or more each year in Oz. I cannot believe how expensive it now is (and I can compare it to so-called expensive locales/cities I have lived in during my working life - such as London and Tokyo). Dollar for dollar my cost of living in Oz is at least 35% more than in the US (I exclude very expensive places/cities like SF and similar). My current car in Oz cost over double my US equivalent. My supermarket/booze runs/pub visits/ restaurant meals/clothing/filling up the tank/travel costs (motels/hotels) are way cheaper in the US.

spot on

I dare say retiring overseas would be a sensible thing for most australians.

London is easily more expensive than Oz. Retirement savings would be chewed through very quickly.

On topic. Not sure there is a large enough organisation for full blown civil war in the US.

 

[deltablues]

Im sorry but universal heath care isnt a particularly left wing thing any more

Its kinda like something that a society grows up enough and just does because its right

s**t mitt romney instituted it as governor.

Universal health care is in principle a good thing, but the devil is in the detail. In the US context Obamacare was born with a club foot - highly politicized by both parties and very badly executed, with Obama unilaterally and illegally amending the law on the fly by executive directions in order to keep the thing afloat.

There are a lot of war stories out there as to huge increases in premiums with reduced coverage and high co-pays, re Obamacare.

It is nice to do what is "right", but it has cost consequences. And when it gets down to a significant imbalance in health costs depending on whether you are a revenue producer or a revenue consumer (the latter being a core of Obama's natural constituents) then there will also be political consequences.

 

[Bostonian]

The only time anything on large scale would go down is if one group of people tried to change the constitution.

 

[FPPF]

Its harder to criminalise the idiots with guns there as all the idiots have free range gun access due to their ******* dumb constitution

So the tougher gun laws in Australia have reduced gun crime in Australia have they? ROFL

All they've done is penalize law abiding citizens and added more burdens on them.
Criminals don't obey the law. They aren't going through gun licensing courses, they aren't paying firearms licensing fees, they aren't registering their guns. Obviously.
They weren't doing this before the tougher gun laws, they aren't doing since the new laws and regulations.

Do you know the government has no clue how many illegal guns are in circulation in Australia? Let me give you a hint. It's out of control. Anyone can get a gun on the black market/street, very easily. It's practically as easy as buying a bad of weed. I can have a bunch of illegal guns by nightfall if I wanted to. And that's in Adelaide..now imagine the bigger cities.

The problem in America isn't guns. The problem is their society and their attitudes/mentality/influences/government.

Switzerland has one of the highgest levels of gun ownership. Yet there aren't mass shootings and high levels of gun crime there.
Same as Cyprus and Sweden and Norway as some other examples. Yet nowhere near the level of gun violence as seen in the USA.

There's lots of gang violence in the UK. Stabbings are at all time highs. It's out of control.
Are they going to ban certain knives? Are you going to have to go through a knife course and get licensed before you can buy certain knives?
Will that stop the daily/nightly stabbings? As much as tougher gun laws have stopped gun crime in Australia. Not at all.

At what point do they start addressing the real issues of what causes these levels of violence, and stop the reactionary responses?
They wont, because it's about the "fear" factor used to control mindless sheep. Seems to have worked on you quite well.

 

[Long Live HFC]

lol yeah, no correlation at all between gun ownership and gun deaths

 

[Crankyhawk]

So the tougher gun laws in Australia have reduced gun crime in Australia have they? ROFL

All they've done is penalize law abiding citizens and added more burdens on them.
Criminals don't obey the law. They aren't going through gun licensing courses, they aren't paying firearms licensing fees, they aren't registering their guns. Obviously.
They weren't doing this before the tougher gun laws, they aren't doing since the new laws and regulations.

Do you know the government has no clue how many illegal guns are in circulation in Australia? Let me give you a hint. It's out of control. Anyone can get a gun on the black market/street, very easily. It's practically as easy as buying a bad of weed. I can have a bunch of illegal guns by nightfall if I wanted to. And that's in Adelaide..now imagine the bigger cities.

The problem in America isn't guns. The problem is their society and their attitudes/mentality/influences/government.

Switzerland has one of the highgest levels of gun ownership. Yet there aren't mass shootings and high levels of gun crime there.
Same as Cyprus and Sweden and Norway as some other examples. Yet nowhere near the level of gun violence as seen in the USA.

There's lots of gang violence in the UK. Stabbings are at all time highs. It's out of control.
Are they going to ban certain knives? Are you going to have to go through a knife course and get licensed before you can buy certain knives?
Will that stop the daily/nightly stabbings? As much as tougher gun laws have stopped gun crime in Australia. Not at all.

At what point do they start addressing the real issues of what causes these levels of violence, and stop the reactionary responses?
They wont, because it's about the "fear" factor used to control mindless sheep. Seems to have worked on you quite well.

So what's the annual gun death toll in Australia? Seems significantly less than road toll, or it is massively unreported. While gun deaths in U.S. Exceed 10k/ year (will find the reference and add to post)

 

[FPPF]

So what's the annual gun death toll in Australia? Seems significantly less than road toll, or it is massively unreported. While gun deaths in U.S. Exceed 10k/ year (will find the reference and add to post)

I said gun crime, not death toll.
Gun crime does not necessarily equate to someone being shot dead.

Are you saying that gun crime in Australia has decreased since Howard introduced tougher laws?