How will the 2016 Federal Election pan out?

Jascave

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Seeing that 2016 is a Federal Election year, how do you see the election panning out?

Will the Coalition get another 3 years in office, or will Labor pull off a shock upset, considering their poor opinion polls performance?

What will be the issues that will dominate the election?

Which seat could be crucial in deciding the election?

Discuss.


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Footy Smarts

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I think there's a very, very good chance that Turnbull will go early before having to put out a budget. Even MYEFO showed how easily the gloss will come of Turnbull once he actually has to make decisions that go against the whole "new politics" spiel.

If that happens I'd back Turnbull to win relatively comfortably with the electorate not yet realising the party is still controlled by the crazies while Turnbull tries to make it through the election with as little policy substance as possible. Then the real battle for the soul of the Liberal party, and hence the government, will commence.

If he waits longer I expect it to be closer than most expect as the right within the party causes more and more friction.

Whatever happens I think it's not long until the 2-party system as we know it in Australia dies with minor parties and independents becoming vastly more common.
 

Jascave

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Coalition to easily retain government, Turnbull to remain as PM and Shorten to resign as Opposition Leader.
Who will be the replacement for Shorten? There's no way in the world that Tanya Pilbersek will be the new Opposition leader if Labor loses very heavily at the election.


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GWBogan

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Who will be the replacement for Shorten? There's no way in the world that Tanya Pilbersek will be the new Opposition leader if Labor loses very heavily at the election.


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DJ Albo. :cool:

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Sep 16, 2006
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Reckon it will be a lot closer than some are suggesting.
Yep, Labor a reasonable chance of regaining government through a hung vote. Do people really believe Abbott will be forgotten that easily?

And btw, Abbott will never lead the party again. But if the conservatives are still pissed at Turnbull I can see them replacing Turnbull. But not with Abbott.

My opinion? Liberals will retain leadership with reduced seats.
 

Jascave

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When is the 2016 Federal Budget due to be handed down in Parliament?


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Nov 17, 2013
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- September
- L/NP 2PP of ~51%
- L/NP retain government with ~80 seats
- Biggest swings to Labor in SA, WA and Victoria
- Abbott and his rabid right-wingers stand for re-election, serve to embarrass the party over the year
- Turnbull's net approval rating erodes to zero by election time
- Xenophon takes two HOR seats
- Greens vote eclipses the 2010 high, no further HOR seat gains, retain all senators
- Clive Palmer defeated
 
Mar 17, 2009
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Yep, Labor a reasonable chance of regaining government through a hung vote. Do people really believe Abbott will be forgotten that easily?

And btw, Abbott will never lead the party again. But if the conservatives are still pissed at Turnbull I can see them replacing Turnbull. But not with Abbott.

My opinion? Liberals will retain leadership with reduced seats.

Thats just about the way I see it as well.

Although I dont see anyone turfing Turnbull. The foaming religious drys in the LNP just wont get the numbers.

The best chance for Labor is to highlight the pain & unfairness of an increased GST.

People will vote for the least s**t party. LNP slightly less shitty than the ALP, only just!
 

Pessimistic

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If turn bull turns out not to.be too.big a corporate who're. It my be worth enduring another lib Np govt. If he can actually purge the bats it crazies out...people say the alp.has it's problems but the feral in the coalition seem.more entrenched
 

Lebbo73

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If turn bull turns out not to.be too.big a corporate who're. It my be worth enduring another lib Np govt. If he can actually purge the bats it crazies out...people say the alp.has it's problems but the feral in the coalition seem.more entrenched
You do know that LNP isn't spelt Labor, don't you? There is a reason why people vote for each party. Why do you keep pushing for the LNP to become like Labor?
 
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Unfortunately I think Turnbull is going to win, as Shorten is just too right wing and too unlikeable/uncharasmatic to be elected. I just hope Turnbull will be able to clear out/marginalise the far right and religious element of his party.
 
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A re-run of the 1998 GST election with the LNP running on a platform of taxation reform just getting over the line and then implementing their taxation policy.

Well maybe. Remember the GST can only be changed with the agreement of all the states. The cross benches too will have their say. It will be tough to do all the LNP drys might want, especially if the election is close.

Running on a platform of union reform wont cut it once the public realise the unions represent only a small number of employees & their are many other bigger & more important issues. A smart ALP will make sounds about weeding out the individual law breakers etc. It will be a messy & divisive & negative campaign from both sides.

Whats worse is that we will get an increasingly vitriolic campaign starting, er, um, 2 weeks ago!:rolleyes:
 
Well maybe. Remember the GST can only be changed with the agreement of all the states. The cross benches too will have their say. It will be tough to do all the LNP drys might want, especially if the election is close.

Running on a platform of union reform wont cut it once the public realise the unions represent only a small number of employees & their are many other bigger & more important issues. A smart ALP will make sounds about weeding out the individual law breakers etc. It will be a messy & divisive & negative campaign from both sides.

Whats worse is that we will get an increasingly vitriolic campaign starting, er, um, 2 weeks ago!:rolleyes:

No its doesn't. The GST is a Commonwealth Act that can be changed by Parlaiment like every other Act, unless the Constitution has changed!

http://theconversation.com/why-the-commonwealth-can-change-the-gst-without-the-states-36298

Under Australian law, changes to the GST are said to be not permitted unless the states agree to the changes. In reality, the GST lock-in mechanism is legally meaningless and unenforceable, though it may still hold political weight.

Section 11 of the A New Tax System (Managing the GST Rate and Base) Act 1999 provides that:

“the rate of the GST, and the GST base, are not to be changed unless each State agrees to the change.”

Similarly, section 1-3 of the GST Act states that:

“the Parliament acknowledges that the Commonwealth will maintain the rate and base of the GST in accordance with the Agreement on Principles for the Reform of Commonwealth-State Financial relations endorsed at the Special Premiers’ Conference in Canberra on 13 November 1998.”

These legislative provisions and the Intergovernmental Agreement are referred to as the GST lock-in mechanism.

The legislative GST lock-in mechanism is contained in Commonwealth pieces of legislation. Despite the fact that the GST revenue collected is distributed to the states, these pieces of legislation are not Acts of state parliaments. Accordingly, it is the legislative power of the Commonwealth that is relevant when determining whether the GST rate and base can be modified contrary to the lock-in mechanism – that is, without state agreement.

Centrality of Commonwealth Constitution

The Commonwealth Constitution grants the Commonwealth Parliament the right to make laws in respect to taxation. Section 1 of the Constitution states:

“the legislative power of the Commonwealth shall be vested in a Federal Parliament, which shall consist of the Queen, a Senate, and a House of Representatives.”

There is no mention of any other body (e.g. state governments) having any power in relation to Commonwealth law-making.
 
Another day, another boner. This time it's technological dunce Dutton (again).

At this rate, it will be a lot closer

Yep and news that Briggs has been publicly circulating pictures of the PS he has supposedly made unwanted advances to and breaching the Privacy Act shows parliament really isn't full of big thinkers!

http://www.pedestrian.tv/news/arts-...male/1d2fbdc9-ead3-4bdb-b355-95a926c73838.htm

Lib MP Jamie Briggs Dragged After Photo Of Female 'Victim' Leaks To Press
briggsfeature2-619-386.jpg


It wouldn't be easy bringing a harrassment claim against your employer.
It'd be even harder if your boss is a sitting Liberal frontbencher.

Add in the fact said Minister sent a photo of you around to his colleagues after receiving your complaint? Well, that's just shithouse.

Yet embattled former minister for Cities and the Built Environment Jamie Briggs did just that. Of course, because this is an #Auspol story, you best believe those photos were leaked to the media, constituting a pretty substantial breach of privacy.

Unions representing the still-unnamed staffer say the eventual publication of a (pixelated) photo in News Limited papers is flat-out "disgraceful."

The ABC reports the Community and Public Sector Union's Michael Tull said "it's never easy for a person who works in the public sector to raise inappropriate behaviour, especially when a politician is involved, which is why we need genuine protections for people who do make complaints."

FWIW, details of her university degree, age and title were also printed, 'cause obviously. Briggs himself is copping a bollocking from some heavyhitters in the political sphere too, adding credence to the idea that he really dun goofed on this one.
 
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