I'national Break What Ifs: Catalan Independence and Barca

Jan 13, 2015
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Alright, I know that this is just a what-if game (and some of you do need a little entertainment during the break), but considering some talk about elite clubs and the whole stance on the topic in Catalonia and Basque country (Both Barca and Bilbao booed the royal family.) The question does seriously have to be asked: If Catalonia became independent, what happens to FC Barcelona and La Liga?

It’s a very weird and serious one because the club and its fans are fully in support of Catalan independence, yet I can’t help but feel that while it is a noble cause, are they essentially signing their own ‘death warrant’ with it?

To state, we know Barca have their own chants about independence, and often other Spanish clubs have made their own in return (Spain is nice, why do you want to leave). Yet the club is eerily silent about the biggest question of all.

Look at it this way: If Catalonia became independent, and were forced to make their own league of at least 8 teams (so that Barca can play in the CL), the teams would be:

Barcelona (1)
Espanyol (1)
Girona (2)
Llagostera (2)
Nastic (2)
Cornella (3)
Reus (3)
Sabadell (3)

And that’s just a bog standard 8 team league. Do note there would likely be more teams for promotion and relegation purposes.

Catalonia has a population of 7.5m (Spain 47m), and a GDP of about 220m Euro (on a per capita basis, it is larger than Spain’s). So close to Serbia’s population with the GDP of Ireland (For the record, Serbia’s GDP is significantly less than Catalonia, but Ireland’s per capita is better, since Ireland only has half the population.) The country would be in the top 40 economy wise.


Of course, we’re ignoring the fact that for Catalonia to even have a place in the CL, they need to become a UEFA member, and you can bet there are more than a few countries that will not approve of Catalonia’s membership, (Spain, England, Serbia, Russia, ect) because of the implications of allowing such a country in the first place.


Alright, pretending all is well, now we have to look at the question, what the heck happens to Barca’s fanbase? Now unlike Bilbao, Barca’s fan base is global. In fact, I dare say that the absolute majority of them don’t actually give a toss about Catalan independence. So what if you told them that they will be playing in a league where Espanyol (I do also wonder how many Barca fans acknowledge Espanyol as a rival) is the biggest club they’ll ever face? No Real Madrid, just Espanyol and lower (no disrespect to Espanyol, but we’re talking on a global scale.)


Alright, so what about the players? Would Barca still have the same appeal if they were playing in a Catalonia league rather than La Liga? I mean, there’s still the Champions League, right?

Better yet, how would the other clubs feel? Espanyol has no known stance on the issue, would they be pleased of an independent Barca, or like their bigger cousin, suffer heavily by the lack of La Liga?


But I know what you’re saying, as if Barca wouldn’t stay in La Liga? It would be like the Welsh teams in England, a grandfather clause. How can you not have them? They’re too freakin’ big, it’s Barca!

Ha ha, well, you’ll be dead wrong, because both Spain and La Liga have stated that they will expel Barca, along with any Catalan clubs, should it go for independence (In fact, that’s actually one of their legit points on why independence is such a bad thing for Catalans). While it does hurt La Liga to lose Barca, one has to wonder how La Liga would react, would it become like the Bundesliga, and have Real win mostly everything, or would there be a genuine step up from the next tier? Could Atletico, Valencia, and Sevilla become really respectable foes and actually make for a more even league? Real Madrid would hurt of course, but could they turn a negative into a positive?

It is a big question for La Liga. People often claim its status as the best. But if you take away Barca, would Spain still be just as competitive on the world stage? The only countries I believe you can take away one huge club and still have very high quality in the league would be England and Italy (and you can argue Italy is missing two of its Superpowers with their performances). One could look to the Scottish leagues to see what happens if one major part of the duopoly goes missing.

Would players want to continue playing in Spain without Barca?


Of course, one has to wonder exactly how much of an impact Barca's absence would have. It could cause the people to demand Barca gets back into La Liga. Would people pressure be enough to get Barca back in, or is it a battle between Spain and Barca to see which will wilt first?



Of course, there is the third option, would Barca’s expulsion result in a European Superleague to be fasttracked? Can’t have an elite superpower like Barca wasting away to nothing, right? Too big for the Catalan league, can’t go back to La Liga, the only other way is Euro Super League (unless for some weird reason, France decides to accept, and that would go against everything Barca stood for, not to mention it’s not entirely certain if France would accept Barca into their ranks. Heck, Portiugal could also be another possibility).



I suppose that’s where you come in. Who would be the bigger loser? What would the implications be for not only La Liga, but European football? Do you believe that despite independence, Spain will chicken out and keep Barca because of their drawing power? Or will France or Portugal benefit? Better yet, do you believe a country’s independence can rely on the status of its team, which is a superpower on the world stage? Should Catalonia even be independent?



So many questions, up to you to let your thoughts known… if you want to. If successful, perhaps we might see more in the future.
 

manboob

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Having lived there for a while - this is the one question that doesn't get an answer when you ask Catalan's about it.

I honestly, think Spain would say * em. Sure they'll lose some revenue in the TV rights but that goes to the clubs anyway not the league. So I doubt it would have the dramatic impact that others think it will. The club would probably lose some of it's allure too. If you're another league too - why would you let them play - the French would be silly given the Basque separatist business they've been dragged into too.
 
Jan 13, 2015
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Spain wouldnt expel Barca IMO. Too much to lose.

Understandably, it is a big loss if Barca is not in the Spanish league, but at the same time, unlike the Scottish League, I think Spain has plenty of good clubs that will take up the slack. If anything, I think we would finally see Atletico take up the spot as Real’s main rival, especially with increased investment. As much as advertising would like to let you know, La Liga is not just two clubs, and if you had to see who would beg first, it would be Barca.

Having lived there for a while - this is the one question that doesn't get an answer when you ask Catalan's about it.

I honestly, think Spain would say **** em. Sure they'll lose some revenue in the TV rights but that goes to the clubs anyway not the league. So I doubt it would have the dramatic impact that others think it will. The club would probably lose some of it's allure too. If you're another league too - why would you let them play - the French would be silly given the Basque separatist business they've been dragged into too.

Exactly, there is a really sharp drop off in the quality of Catalan teams. I mean, it said a lot when Catalonia’s 3rd biggest team was Barca B. In England, you can make a legitimate case for a London, North West, and perhaps even a Yorkshire league using their biggest 8 clubs, and have both the PL and the regional league do fairly well.

And of course there’s the option of the foreign league…

Monaco fits into the French league, not sure this would become any different.

Well there are a few major differences here:

1. Monaco is a micronation. Catalonia is the same size as Serbia.

2. Monaco has close historic relations with France. Catalonia has cut ties with Spain, and considering that the French and Spanish were fighting off Basque rebels, there is no way that France would threaten their relationship with Spain over getting Barca.

3. Monaco isn’t a UEFA member (and they could easily become one). While you can say the same of Andorra, San Marino, and especially Liechtenstein, where all seven of their clubs play in Switzerland (and again they’re allowed to due to good relations), who have nation clubs in the bigger countries, there is one major thing the Monaco club can claim: a CL spot in the French league. Which brings us to perhaps the most significant point:

If Barca want to play CL and in a good league, they will have to be registered by the FFF. This means that they will be the French representative in the CL, which goes against everything that the club fought for in the first place, and why they are in this mess to begin with. All that independence, only to represent another nation altogether. You know, Slovenian, Croatian, Bosnian, and Montenegrin teams were more than happy to start at the bottom to help increase their league ranking and to represent their club as their nation of origin. Yet proud Barca needs Spanish, French, or even Portuguese help to maintain their dignity? It's a superpower, yes, but it also is the heart of the Catalan identity, and if 80% of its people want it to become an independent nation, along with the people running the club, then you have yourself a very interesting conflict in regards to the best interests of the club. The people want independence, but the club's best interest is to stay in La Liga.

I guess it raises another question; you want the club to be representative of its location, but at what point would you draw the line? This is the complete opposite of the Wimbledon/MK Dons case; the fans want to move, but it would hurt the club if it did. What to do?
 
Jan 13, 2015
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Well, that was a very productive discussion. Probably didn't help that I spewed out most of the stats, making this a little irrelevant. Yeah, got to work on that.

Anyway, just out of sheer curiosity, let's just pretend that Catalonia was getting independence this season. What would be the impact in terms of players?
4NpxnY8.jpg


So it seems in proportion to its population, Catalonia doesn't quite tribute its share of La Liga players.

So while Spain loses 16% of its population (and one of the wealthier communities), they will lose about 11% of its Spanish players to Catalonia. Probably suggestions that Catalonia would not be as strong as one expects from the region.

Funnily enough, today is Catalonia day, so enjoy Messi and Iniesto, err, I mean Iniesta, in a Barca Catalan shirt:
barcelona_catalan_kit_bilbao_img1.jpg
 

manboob

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Again I don't really see what your question is. Club will end up in it's own league players will leave that's it. It's not like Catalonia is going to be able to walk back into the Euro-zone any time it wants. EU or UEFA.
 
Jan 13, 2015
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Again I don't really see what your question is. Club will end up in it's own league players will leave that's it. It's not like Catalonia is going to be able to walk back into the Euro-zone any time it wants. EU or UEFA.

Well, I guess the question is if Catalan independence is in any way or form actually good for the club. I mean, it doesn't have to be a Catalan league, maybe Barca's loss is too huge of a gap for Spain to fill up which would likely result in Spain to accept Barca regardless of its newly found independence, or if another league would take them.

I mean, I don't quite think Catalonia would struggle to get UEFA membership and also UEFA membership. Article 10 suggests FIFA membership is usually reserved for 'independent states recognised by the international community,' and according to Platini himself, he said that Kosovo would be very likely become a UEFA member in 2016. I think Catalonia would be more likely to gain acceptance way faster than what Kosovo did both for UEFA and FIFA. EU membership is a trickier prospect. It is about on par with Portugal, but it is less than Scotland's, and there were some doubts there. Of course, the state would suffer a hit if it did split, but it does have the infrastructure to bounce back. Some reports even suggest that Independence would make Catalonia better off by 2030.

At the very least, even if Barca do go back 'home,' they will have a CL spot without question, it's just one wonders if the Catalonia league might actually work in propping up the rest of the clubs to try increase them in size. Barca might seem at risk at becoming the next Porto, but at the same time, it's possible that they could become the next Ajax and continue being a big player on the stage even in the Catalan league, and maybe that's what required for the Catalan league to be somewhat up there (And by up there, I mean a top 15 nation at least).
 

Squibo

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Iniesta's from Madrid but the Catalan NT is actually more than handy. Their current starting XI could be something like, Casilla, Montoya, Pique, Bartra, Alba, Busquets, Cesc, Xavi, Vidal, Deulofeu, Tello. If they were a member of FIFA and could participate in Euro and WC qualifying, I'd actually back them to make the Euro's and push for a WC spot.
 
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