Jon Ralph on why Macca was sacked

[immortalmike]

"Second year blues" is just a concept, without actually making a link to Hunter's drop in performance to anything..
McCartney - dour coach who emphasises contested ball, Hunter creative player with flair who is at odds with that coaching style.
An unproven concept or a direct reason as to why Hunter dropped in performance - I know which one I think is more likely.

You stated something that was completely incorrect. I.e that players rarely play worse in their second year. This is patently not true to the point there is even a widely used term for it.

We've been through the McCartney stuff before. Obviously to no avail. Suffice to say contested football was only a small part of McCartney's coaching. Balance is what was preached. I provided two players who were developing along that path nicely. Hunter struggled. If he doesn't learn that balance it'll be the difference between him becoming a Brent Stanton (at best) or a Dayne Beams.

 

[Butane]

You stated something that was completely incorrect. I.e that players rarely play worse in their second year. This is patently not true to the point there is even a widely used term for it.

The term is thrown around a lot, especially in the media. I'd love to see the stats on it - doesn't sound right to me but I'm aware of the second year syndrome.

Can't help but think it's a matter of expecting a sizable increase in their second season but reality is they only improve slightly. Can't imagine a reason why they'd actually go backwards though.

Bit off topic - #sorry

 

[immortalmike]

The term is thrown around a lot, especially in the media. I'd love to see the stats on it - doesn't sound right to me but I'm aware of the second year syndrome.

Can't help but think it's a matter of expecting a sizable increase in their second season but reality is they only improve slightly. Can't imagine a reason why they'd actually go backwards though.

Bit off topic - #sorry

It's pretty simple. They have less focus on them in their first year. In their second year they factor in the opposition's planning. Sometimes they are even tagged.
I honestly thought this was obvious and common knowledge, has been happening for years. Can't actually believe it needed to be spelled out.

 

[Butane]

It's pretty simple. They have less focus on them in their first year. In their second year they factor in the opposition's planning. Sometimes they are even tagged.
I honestly thought this was obvious and common knowledge, has been happening for years. Can't actually believe it needed to be spelled out.

Just lay it out for me.

'AFL players are more likely to perform worse in their second year than they are in their first year'?

*clearly something for another thread but I'd like to explore.

 

[immortalmike]

It's pretty simple. They have less focus on them in their first year. In their second year they factor in the opposition's planning. Sometimes they are even tagged.
I honestly thought this was obvious and common knowledge, has been happening for years. Can't actually believe it needed to be spelled out.

Actually now reading back that last part it sounds a bit harsh. Sorry Butane mate, had a tough day dealing with morons.

 

[immortalmike]

Just lay it out for me.

'AFL players are more likely to perform worse in their second year than they are in their first year'

Not necessarily. If they have a poor or so-so first year it won't effect their second year much.
But I'd lay odds that Lewis Taylor will find it harder going next year than this one. Libba's second year was terrible after an excellent first. And don't be surprised if Bonts struggles a bit early next year.

 

[Butane]

Not necessarily. If they have a poor or so-so first year it won't effect their second year much.
But I'd lay odds that Lewis Taylor will find it harder going next year than this one. Libba's second year was terrible after an excellent first. And don't be surprised if Bonts struggles a bit early next year.

I would contend that on average, 2nd year players are better than 1st year players. That would make more sense to me overall.

I understand the reasoning for guys like Taylor and Bonts and maybe when using the phrase 'second year blues' they mean 'They are one of those great first year players that have been shut down/studied more in their second year and haven't figured out a way around it yet'

 

[immortalmike]

I would contend that on average, 2nd year players are better than 1st year players. That would make more sense to me overall.

I understand the reasoning for guys like Taylor and Bonts and maybe when using the phrase 'second year blues' they mean 'Great first year players are shut down/studied more in their second year'

That's pretty much exactly what it means.
In terms of the debate we were having earlier. Hunter had a good first year and stagnated a bit this year after receiving a bit of attention and a bit of a bollocking neither is rare for a second year player. If he takes it on board he'll end up a good player.

 

[TiAn_]

This thread is giving me second-year blues.

 

[Struggle]

I always assumed Hunter was dropped because he didn't pressure/chase, wasn't finishing all that well and is pretty soft. He has a lot to work on, and players like Hrovat passed him by this season. You could blame the coach, but it looked like a workrate/effort thing to me

 

[BEaston]

^ spot on.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I just reckon Hunter had a bit of a nervous year without confidence, particularly in goalkicking.
Remember that game where he decided to run around on the mark, snapped, and missed, rather than take a set shot from a pretty easy angle?

 

[timtamWB]

On the 2nd year blues thing, it doesn't make sense to me. You see someone like Bontempelli or Taylor having a good year and you're playing them in round 19, so you go "Oh no matter, we'll leave them alone, but NEXT year we'll actually put some work into them!"

I'm not saying that 2nd year blues and the fact they get more work put into them isn't true. I just don't understand why it doesn't happen late in their 1st year.

 

[immortalmike]

On the 2nd year blues thing, it doesn't make sense to me. You see someone like Bontempelli or Taylor having a good year and you're playing them in round 19, so you go "Oh no matter, we'll leave them alone, but NEXT year we'll actually put some work into them!"

I'm not saying that 2nd year blues and the fact they get more work put into them isn't true. I just don't understand why it doesn't happen late in their 1st year.

It does.

 

[Super Hans]

I always assumed Hunter was dropped because he didn't pressure/chase, wasn't finishing all that well and is pretty soft. He has a lot to work on, and players like Hrovat passed him by this season. You could blame the coach, but it looked like a workrate/effort thing to me

Nah c'mon mate, it's the coaches fault he didn't chase and was soft.

Hunter has all the talent in the world, needs to work harder to use it. Which I'm sure he will, the kid's in his seconds year.

 

[timtamWB]

It does.

Well to an extent yes, but not to the level of the 2nd year blues. Although I'd say that's because the coaches have the whole pre season to study the players' habits and put more work into them.

I think I just answered my own question.

 

[yebiga]

Each player has strengths and weaknesses
A first year player can catch the opposition unawares with their strengths
Mostly we play each team once
And some players have more tricks than others ie bonti
2 bs year around the tricks are quelled and the weaknesses are exposed the second yeAr player needs to find more or he is going backwards
The more average a player is In their 1st yr the more likely they come under the guard of opponents and improve in their second year
Savvy

 

[Arkangel]

With regard to the idea of "second year blues," I think regression to the mean could be a contributing factor. You can describe a player's performance in any given year as function with two components: their own abilities/skills/talents (let's call this P_i, denoting factors affecting performance that are connected to the individual player in some or other way), and random factors that aren't under anyone's control (let's call this P_r, denoting factors affecting performance that are random). Assuming these components are independent, a player's overall performance P_t = P_i + P_r. Set P_t for the average player to 0, indicating that players who perform above the league average have positive values of P_t, and players who perform below the league average have negative values of P_t. On average, both P_i and P_r will also be 0, so a player will greater than average abilities/skills/talents will have P_i > 0, and a player whose performance is more positively affected by random factors than average will have P_r > 0. More often than not, when a player's total performance P_t is > 0, both their P_i and their P_r will also be > 0. Despite coaching and development, a player's skills/abilities/talents usually won't change too dramatically from year to year (i.e., a sublimely skilled player won't suddenly become rubbish, nor vice versa). By contrast, because they are random, the effects described by P_r will fluctuate but maintain a mean of 0. This means that a player whose performance was enhanced by random factors in one year will, more often than not, obtain less enhancement from such factors the following year: they will regress toward the mean. Thus, if a player performs well in their first year relative to their peers, this superiority is statistically likely to decrease the following year. The more marked thie initial superiority, the greater it's likely decline.

 

[JJHunter]

stevie j needed some tough loving too
How many players when they retire tell you how it was the hard truths which helped them become the player they became?
This is so common it should nt need restating
Maybe that is the very best way to avoid hunter becoming another jones, hill, grant, Higgins ...

There you go again - thinking its all about the tough love and exit interviews.

Ignore the fact that the players didn't respect macca or his match day coaching just like a good number of supporters. Mattdougie knows.
Just need to read interviews with players who have left to understand its not about exit interviews and tough love.
That was just the sugar on the top. many balls had been dropped well before that.

Sick of hearing all this crap about the players not being hard enough to cop what was being said to them.
Firstly like I said its was probably only 30% of the reason the players didnt like him.
Secondly if the personal insults are what theya re rumoured to be no one deserves bullying like that in the work place.
Attack and comment on the effort and performance - NOT on the person.

I don't know about you but I can take tough love off someone I respect, but if I don't respect or rate someones knowledge then that stuff becomes impossible to just wear.

 

[yebiga]

There you go again - thinking its all about the tough love and exit interviews.

Ignore the fact that the players didn't respect macca or his match day coaching just like a good number of supporters. Mattdougie knows.
Just need to read interviews with players who have left to understand its not about exit interviews and tough love.
That was just the sugar on the top. many balls had been dropped well before that.

Sick of hearing all this crap about the players not being hard enough to cop what was being said to them.
Firstly like I said its was probably only 30% of the reason the players didnt like him.
Secondly if the personal insults are what theya re rumoured to be no one deserves bullying like that in the work place.
Attack and comment on the effort and performance - NOT on the person.

I don't know about you but I can take tough love off someone I respect, but if I don't respect or rate someones knowledge then that stuff becomes impossible to just wear.

The trouble with your impassioned assessment is that the results don't support them
Unless of course you believed like some we were in a premiership window
Truth is I am the defenders of macca have moved on
What we object to is blaming macca for everything and pretending everything is now dandy
It's classic diversion and revision
Your on a hiding to nothing when the results don't spike with these touted rooky coaches
If I was you and really believed what you say you believe than you need a spike in wins immediately or these precious players and yourself will look foolish indeed

So you also think macca played the rebuild card?

Wasn't he tasked with the job of changing the culture
Did you expect this would all be simply a group hug
I don't want to discuss macca
I respect him and his legacy

It is the haters who cannot move on because only if macca is painted as the sole villain can everyone else be vindicated

Otherwise heaven forbid there might be others with faults
No much easier to paint macca as the marquis de sade

 

[LondonBulldog]

May I ponder a couple questions to thise that still think Macca should be in charge

1- Do u honestly think Macca would have turned out to be a very good coach? Not just an average coach a very good one.

2- Do you honestly think that the senior players were unhappy ONLY because Macca was blunt and honest?

3- Why did Maccca resign ? Now I think he got told to get out after what I have heard but if as many say why did he resig! In the end?

4- do you think he could have lead us to a GF? Because if we are cutting them ist to include only players that can take us to a GF wouldn't that include coaches that can do the same?

Sorry guys but point 3 is easy. He only resigned as his contract stated he would be paid 50% of his remaining contract no matter whether he was sacked our resigned. I can tell you, if this was not written into the contract he would not resign.

 

[JJHunter]

The trouble with your impassioned assessment is that the results don't support them
Unless of course you believed like some we were in a premiership window
Truth is I am the defenders of macca have moved on
What we object to is blaming macca for everything and pretending everything is now dandy
It's classic diversion and revision
Your on a hiding to nothing when the results don't spike with these touted rooky coaches
If I was you and really believed what you say you believe than you need a spike in wins immediately or these precious players and yourself will look foolish indeed

So you also think macca played the rebuild card?

Wasn't he tasked with the job of changing the culture
Did you expect this would all be simply a group hug
I don't want to discuss macca
I respect him and his legacy

It is the haters who cannot move on because only if macca is painted as the sole villain can everyone else be vindicated

Otherwise heaven forbid there might be others with faults
No much easier to paint macca as the marquis de sade

No one is pretending everything is fine and dandy. I continually get hammered for being too negative.

I get it...
You are frustrated people post bagging mccartney without acknowledging that other things are at play.
People like me are frustrated at you when you post supporting Mccartney not acknowledging anything other than soft players when that is only 30% of the reason he is gone.

here is something everyone just needs to agree to disagree

Some say Macca was a terrible match day coach with a poor game plan and match committee selections.
Some say macca was a terrific coach who was taking us to the promised land one year at a time.

The fact he is gone may well suggest that the players agree with the first of those two statements and I understand why you want to atatck them also if you are one that falls into the second category.

 

[yebiga]

No one is pretending everything is fine and dandy. I continually get hammered for being too negative.

I get it...
You are frustrated people post bagging mccartney without acknowledging that other things are at play.
People like me are frustrated at you when you post supporting Mccartney not acknowledging anything other than soft players when that is only 30% of the reason he is gone.

here is something everyone just needs to agree to disagree

Some say Macca was a terrible match day coach with a poor game plan and match committee selections.
Some say macca was a terrific coach who was taking us to the promised land one year at a time.

The fact he is gone may well suggest that the players agree with the first of those two statements and I understand why you want to atatck them also if you are one that falls into the second category.

Inthe event we hire one of these rooky coaches
The hate macca crew will all be changing their user names from shame

 

[JJHunter]

Inthe event we hire one of these rooky coaches
The hate macca crew will all be changing their user names from shame

hahahaha
Do you forget that Macca was a rookie coach ??
yet you have him as god taking us to the promised land.

I would be shattered if we went for a rookie coach that didnt have better communication and player managements skills than macca
I would be shattered if we went for a rookie coach that didnt have better match day coaching ability than macca

I highly doubt any new coach we get will be as good of a development coach as macca cause its been clear he likes to spend time focused on individuals rather than a large number of players - he may well be the best dev coach in the land.

You fail to acknowledge any of maccas short comings as a coach and seem to put him on this pedestal - that is not living in reality.

 

[Ozimandas]

hahahaha
Do you forget that Macca was a rookie coach ??
yet you have him as god taking us to the promised land.

I would be shattered if we went for a rookie coach that didnt have better communication and player managements skills than macca
I would be shattered if we went for a rookie coach that didnt have better match day coaching ability than macca

I highly doubt any new coach we get will be as good of a development coach as macca cause its been clear he likes to spend time focused on individuals rather than a large number of players - he may well be the best dev coach in the land.

You fail to acknowledge any of maccas short comings as a coach and seem to put him on this pedestal - that is not living in reality.

We suffered the last 3 years and took serious pain so that one day we have a serious tilt at a flag. The sort of tilt where we just play our game and the opposition just cant do anything about it.

We have taken alot of pain heading down this path.

Now due to mismanagement we are looking at a brand new rookie coach. Will he have the stomach to follow througho the vision that was set in place or will he just try to win now? if its the latter we have suffered watching this team for no reason other than mismanagement .