Kardinia Park's Racing & Sports

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KardiniaPark said:
I came here to gloat, I thought it would be full of Paris' Azn gifs. I had no idea Id forgotten to post Seymour yesterday :-(
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KardiniaPark said:
They put up $17 Shoreham, so I went THWACK!

Geelong

Race 7 2.5u EW @17/5 (B365)

The Turnbull looks a fairly good form race:$
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Very good scoop that, into $12's (which still looks alrite compared to others) already, your money has so much weight, KP. :eek:

Not a race I'm terribly keen on, but yeah, if $17 for Shoreham was still there id be on as well.

Im interested to see what odds they put up for River Delta in the 8th, got a big opinion of her but this is a very hot race this year.
 
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$12 is still a silly price, it's not like the rest of them are absolutely flying either.

Re - River Delta, I've only had a quick look but she'll get 3.5kg off the likely fav from last time and she should still be on the improve while we seem to have already seen what the others can offer at their peak. I think she'd be around $6, what were you hoping for?
 
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KardiniaPark said:
Watch his last run, he's screaming for 2400m. $12 is still a silly price, it's not like the rest of them are absolutely flying either.
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Yea saw it in Turnball, was very good late, career best i would say. After the weekends results i think i may just cool my jets until Saturday.

Correggio seems overs at $34 as well.
 
A11dAtP0w3R said:
Yea saw it in Turnball, was very good late, career best i would say. After the weekends results i think i may just cool my jets until Saturday.

Correggio seems overs at $34 as well.
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No point waiting until Saturday when you like something mid week, the burnt bridges may be rebuilt by the weekend!

*Oh and I just edited my post above to include River delta
 
KardiniaPark said:
No point waiting until Saturday when you like something mid week, the burnt bridges may be rebuilt by the weekend.
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Convinced we are getting superb overs on Correggio (was backed to win that race 2 starts back against Brambles at Flemington $18 into $8) very good run in KP's fav of all cups last start, Benalla.

At $34, yea, i probably will.

River Delta the other if i can get $6+
 
KardiniaPark said:
Re - River Delta, I've only had a quick look but she'll get 3.5kg off the likely fav from last time and she should still be on the improve while we seem to have already seen what the others can offer at their peak. I think she'd be around $6, what were you hoping for?
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Seems we are thinking the same, yea, ill back at anything $6 +
 
KardiniaPark said:
$4.4 Fav, Graiante $6 :confused:
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Too smart bookies, too smart.

Good betting race regardless, she has drawn out wide so no way I'm taking $4.40. Lady Lakshmi has gone up silly odds at $21

But my god, the best value is Vibrant Rouge, $34 at 365? That is stupendously good, I will be on.

Gotta think she has been set for this being a home town horse, 2nd up stats 4-3-0-0, only miss was last prep on a slow track (wet tracks 3-0-0-0) but still ran fourth in a stakes race in Adelaide behind Miss Steele, Girl Guide and Octavia. Gets back on a good/dead track Wednesday. Looks to be very good speed in this race which would suit.
 
A11dAtP0w3R said:
Too smart bookies, too smart.

Good betting race regardless, she has drawn out wide so no way I'm taking $4.40. Lady Lakshmi has gone up silly odds at $21

But my god, the best value is Vibrant Rouge, $34 at 365? That is stupendously good, I will be on.

Gotta think she has been set for this being a home town horse, 2nd up stats 4-3-0-0, only miss was last prep on a slow track (wet tracks 3-0-0-0) but still ran fourth in a stakes race in Adelaide behind Miss Steele, Girl Guide and Octavia. Gets back on a good/dead track Wednesday. Looks to be very good speed in this race which would suit.
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I'll get to it later tonight. I start from R1 and work my way in :$
 
A11dAtP0w3R said:
Convinced we are getting superb overs on Correggio (was backed to win that race 2 starts back against Brambles at Flemington $18 into $8) very good run in KP's fav of all cups last start, Benalla.

At $34, yea, i probably will.

River Delta the other if i can get $6+
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Just having a look at Correggio, the 2400m seems to be the issue. He really hasn't gone a yard over 2200m, in fact he's been beaten about 19 Lengths in the three runs he's had at 2200+. I couldn't have him on that alone.
 
KardiniaPark said:
Just having a look at Correggio, the 2400m seems to be the issue. He really hasn't gone a yard over 2200m, in fact he's been beaten about 19 Lengths in the three runs he's had at 2200+. I couldn't have him on that alone.
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Yea, def a risk at distance. But when Moody had him he always thought he would make a stayer. Hoping he has matured a bit since 3 yo days, willing to find out at the price.
 
GEELONG WEDNESDAY

RACE 3

11. NAVAJO RUN - 2u Win @7 / 3u Place @2.38 (B365)

In what is a very ordinary race, she gets in 0.5Kg over the minimum and has strong group form around the likes of Happy As Hell, May’s Dream & Rezoned. She looks to have come back well and the 1700m looks perfect at this stage. She’ll be winning far better races than this. Don’t discount her showing something at Flemington over the carnival. Perhaps 2000m on Cup day?

She was 3L off in an Oaks…here she’s in a BM70 worth $20K and a weak one at that. The price is quite astounding. I wouldn’t normally have two bets of 5U on the same day let alone the same month but these two really stand out as value+ selections.

RACE 7

2. SHOREHAM - 2.5u EW @17/5 (B365)

Dived in early as mentioned above, the Turnbull form looks really really strong and he was the best of the finishers. Step up to 2400 looks ideal. Already into $10.

RACE 8

3. HAZARD 0.5uEW @21/7.50 (B365)

If you go back through her form you will see her record is actually pretty good, 6 wins from 18 is respectable. However, she does take a couple of runs to get going every campaign which is where it gets interesting. If you remove her record for 1st and 2nd runs back from a spell you are left with 4 wins from 6, and 2 places. These include a win against Spirit Song @ Bendigo, 2nd in a Listed Race in Adelaide and a 3rd at MV to Mays Dream.

In Feb this year she was right up the back of Bonaria in a G3. She’s good enough if she can get that sharp improvement that usually comes 3rd up. The distance is the query, why is she still at 1200m? Is this where they see her at her best now? She has a poor record at the 1200m but is that because she’s always first and second up when over this distance? If I’d had to hazard a guess (see what I did there) I’d say that’s almost certainly the reason.

There’s some very good F&M in this race but at her peak she’s right there with them. I think she’s worth a small play at the odds.


19. CHOOSE 0.5U EW @34/11 (B365)

Really good behind Vain Attraction last time, Griante was in the same race and finished less than a length ahead yet they find themselves at the opposite ends of the market. She was also held up at the wrong time in that race, around the 200m it looked like she ran into a bit of a wall and had to try and pick up again which was a bit too much to ask that late in the race. I think she finishes ahead of Griante or at least on par which means she should be right in the race and a genuine outside winning chance at a big price.

River Delta & Spirits Dance the hardest to beat but surprised they are both so well found.
 
Thoughts on Aggregator in the plod-athon?

Just wins despite the 60kgs?

Not ultra keen on the $2.40 but i couldn't back anything against.
 
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