KA's Dream Team bets

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What im noticing with Lux is there bets are quite reactionary from the following week/weeks.

So players that might of had a down week eg: Ablett, Rok ect are probably going to be lowered a little bit and if playing the right team the ones to jump on.
 
2U Swan over 121.5 $1.85 IAS
Loves the MCG. Gone 130,163,106,163,115,130 in his last 6. 106 was when he surprisingly got tagged by NVB and 115 was when he copped an early cork. Eagles leaked some big scores last week and they dont really tag and wont tag Swan.

2U SJ under 114.5 $1.85 IAS
Just seems like a very big line for someone at Skilled Stadium against Sydney. Was tagged by Jack earlier in the season i expect the same to happen again. Scored 107. Doesnt exactly kill SS with scores of 94 vs GC, 156 (vs Melb), 109 vs Port, 109 vs Stk. Sydney is a much tougher oppo to any of those. Just seems a bit high from a big score vs West Coast last week.
 
1U JJK over T.Cloke $2.15
Key forwards dominating Pies all season. T.Cloke will get plenty of ball his way however Glass and Mckenzie are hard matchups didnt allow the Pods to do much last week. Good Value.

2U Mclean over Zaka $1.75
Mclean avg 109 last 4 incl big 129 without Judd in the team. Zaka and Essendon struggling. Essendon easiest to score against at the moment. Zaka avg just 56 in his last 6 games and has not gone above 79.

2U Martin over Deledio $1.95
Deledio hopefully gets the Whiley tag, super tagger ATM. Martin could potentially escape the tag after last weeks performance. Not confident in this one especailly if Whiley goes to Cotchin it might be over before it starts

2U Rockliff over Griffen $1.90
Rocky we know is killing it lately. Griffen should get the Raines tag he killed them in first round Griffen without Raines playing. Rockys last 6 been awesome without Black he will be a midfield maestro.

1U Montagna over Ablett $2.20
Ablett avg just 78 last 3 and only gone above 114 in once of the last 9 rounds (missing 2). GC dont tag and midfielders dominate them, GC really struggling for a fit side mentioned by Mckenna. Montagna is killing it lately has not gone below 100 in last 5 with some big tonnes in that mix. Ablett will get C.Jones tag. Value.

2U Prestia over Harley Bennell $1.75
Im really just praying for a hard tag on Bennell. Hes been great the last few weeks and the saints are tagging heavily of late. Ray went to ROK (55), Curren went to Hanneberry (41), Jones to Jack (82). Im expecting a Ray or Curren heavy tag. Hopefully Prestia runs free. Goes against form this one. Saints tagged Bennell in round 1 over Ablett with Jones so decent signs.
 

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Liking Montagna in the Luxbet Super Group paying $34, although my piddly $15 bet took him in to $26. Probably still worth a look given he has the potential to go big and GC are proven DT points gifters.

Steven at $41 is probably worth a look too.
 
d3ft said:
Liking Montagna in the Luxbet Super Group paying $34, although my piddly $15 bet took him in to $26. Probably still worth a look given he has the potential to go big and GC are proven DT points gifters.

Steven at $41 is probably worth a look too.
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I was gonna do the same yesterday, im guessing more bets were put on to cause the change. Youve got the right man IMO however i didnt bet because i think its almost a lottery albeit his odds are way way overs.

5U Boak under 99.5 (1.75)
Crowley tag, No hartlett and even then wouldve and should get the Crowley ferocious tag

2U Barlow over 102.5 (1.80)
Port are a pretty easy team to score against and freo should do a number on them at Subi. Has gone above 102 in his last 11/12 games.

2U T.Cloke under 89.5 (1.70)
Probably a s**t bet that deserves to lose. Poor value and a pretty low line i missed the value. However as said before Glass, Emac arent easy to score against

1U Pendles over Beams (1.87)
Im predicting S.Selwood to go to Beams he has the last 2 times they have played and still scored well admittingly but Pendles has surpassed his score in both of these games.

2U Priddis under 98.5 (1.87)
Similar type to Sam Mitchell and expecting the Macaffer tag. Interesting lux have him 5 higher then centre/sport bet. Even without the tag Collingwood are a bloody hard team to score against lately. Expecting Collingwood to dominate.
 
Horrible start last night

Firstly Beams pulling out probably cost me a bet

Lost 2U Cloke under 89.5 (got 90)
Lost 2U Priddis under 98.5
Lost 1U JJK over Cloke

Won 1.7U Swan over 121.5 (just with 122)

-3.3 Units

2U T.Mitchell under 88.5 (1.76)
2U ROK over 91.5 (1.87)
2U Hanneberry over T.Mitchell, Bartel and J.Corey @3.25
 
2U Hibberd under 88.5
Got tagged last time around, has mostly been going under this of late.

2U M.Murphy over 85.5
Most likely get tagged but destroyed Hocking earlier in season and against a now poor essendon side is much better then an 85.5 player.
 

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Keystone agony said:
2U Swan over 121.5 $1.85 IAS WIN

2U SJ under 114.5 $1.85 IAS LOSS

2U Mclean over Zaka $1.75 LOSS

2U Martin over Deledio $1.95 WIN

2U Rockliff over Griffen $1.90 WIN

1U Montagna over Ablett $2.20 WIN

2U Prestia over Harley Bennell $1.75 WIN

5U Boak under 99.5 (1.75) WIN

2U Barlow over 102.5 (1.80) LOSS

2U T.Cloke under 89.5 (1.70) LOSS

1U Pendles over Beams (1.87) INVALID

2U Priddis under 98.5 (1.87) LOSS

2U T.Mitchell under 88.5 (1.76) WIN

2U ROK over 91.5 (1.87) LOSS

2U Hanneberry over T.Mitchell, Bartel and J.Corey @3.25 LOSS

2U Hibberd under 88.5 WIN

2U M.Murphy over 85.5 LOSS

2u d.martin over 91.5 (1.95) WIN
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Well huge fightback i think i was over -10 Units at one point but have managed to again reach the positive

+1.01 Units
 
Tassieboy said:
How've you not been limited?
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Im not even sure what limited is?

But from what i know i haven't been

Maybe your asking the wrong person

My bets haven't been limited in anyway as of what i know right now.

Latest Update below

Updated Results
ROUND 10 (+12.61 units)
ROUND 11 (+9.97 units)
ROUND 12 (-0.13 units)
ROUND 13 (+0.76 units)
ROUND 14 (+8.58 Units)
ROUND 15 (+4.2 Units)
ROUND 16 (+1.64 Units)
ROUND 17 (+14.22 Units)
ROUND 18 (+6.5 Units)
ROUND 19 (+4 Units)
ROUND 20 (+11.155 Units)
ROUND 21 (+5.47 Units)
ROUND 22 (+1.01 Units)

Year To Date +81.975 Units
 
2U J.MCveigh under 97.5 (1.87) WIN
Scored poorly vs them earlier in season, think he could get a tag. Hard to score against hawks and also poor scoring stadium expecting hawks to win pretty comfortably.

2U Barlow over Montagna (1.88) LOSS
Have a feeling Barlows rest was partially last week. I think D.Pearce will get tagged and so will Montagna by the creepy crowley. Should be plenty of midfield and sandilands tap time for Barlow without the others, just has to avoid the tag.

2U Deledio over 96.5 (1.85)
Usually gets tagged by Hocking. I dont think Essendon will be able to stay in this match for long and they will likely allow easy handball recieves in this game which helps Deledio. Easy tigers win, at MCG. May get a Melksham tag but i think he should be alright in good conditions at the G this saturday. Has been very good last 3 weeks DT wise

2U K.Simpson over Gibbs (1.80)
The big worry is a Kornes tag but he has dominated 6 of the past 7 weeks scoring above 103 in those games. Gibbs has been ordinary playing a backline/defensive midfield role in his last 8 only twice above 78. I think Kornes will do a midfield tag on M.Murphy.

3U Kornes over Boak (1.75)
Expecting Curnow to go to Boak and keep up his tremendous record this year. Kornes a good scorer and 103 top for port last time they met.

3U T.Cotchin over 92.5 (1.75)
Has been poor against GWS and calrton with heavy tags but he will be relieved of any heavy attention this week at the MCG good conditions, No Hocking and a defeated essendon should see him go well.

2U J.Selwood under 120.5 (1.87) WIN
Huge line. Raines tag usually stops him.

1U Mzungu over Ray/D.Pearce (2.65) LOSS
More midfield time for Mzungu with all the outs. Expecting a D.Pearce tag from C.Jones, just needs to beat Ray.

2U Lobbe over Monfries (1.72)
Lobbe avg 122 past 3 and his last 7-8 as sole ruck been very nice. He was my huge sneaky ruck i was gonna start with this year but didnt end up doing and he started slowly. Monfries a low 70 scorer unless he bags 7 goals (121) or 4 goals (98) cant see it happening though.

2U Leuy over Hanley (1.85) LOSS
Rucks usually score well against the cats who are pretty poor with their ruck stocks. Leuy in good form. Hanley scored poorly on them last time and i think is a bit out of form and may struggle getting smashed by the cats. Not that confident with this one.

2U Minson over Cross (1.88)
Rucks kill Melbourne. Its crossys last game so they may well try get the footy in his hands alot but im expecting 110 from Will.

2U K.Simpson over 90.5 (1.87)
6/7 past scores above 103. Needs to hopefully avoid Kornes tag.

2U Priddis over Douglas (1.75)
Douglas been poor last 5. Priddis went 120~ on them earlier in season and going great last few weeks aswell.

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Well back from Melbourne and happy enough with going 2-1 for a small profit last round. Thought I had the Wingard over Pavlich bet in the bag at 3qtr time with Wingard up by 12 points or so but wasn't to be with him getting subbed off and Pavlich having a big last quarter. On to this week:

I have also taken the Barlow over Montagna for 2U @1.88 and Cornes over Boak for 3U @1.75. Very confident that Boak will get Curnow and hopeful that Montagna will get Crowley although there is still a decent chance he will go to Dal Santo.

Also went:

Douglas over 86.5 @1.75 (2U) Sportingbet

A lot of his form drop has got to do with him getting tagged. I think he will enjoy the open spaces at Subi and avoid the tag.

Cotchin over 92.5 @175 (2U) Sportingbet

Had half a rest last week. I don't believe he will get tagged and should cover this line comfortably.

Ebert over Boak @1.95 (2U) Sportingbet

Curnow to Boak as mentioned before.

Selwood under 117.5 @1.87 (2U) Sportingbet

Big line despite Raines having success on him in the past. Think they might take the foot off the pedal a bit in this game and it might see him get a bit of a rest or at least spend more time up forward.
 
My DT Bets:

1U - DT: Masten > Priddis @ $1.87
1U - DT: Mzungu > D. Pearce @ $2.00
1U - DT: Rockliff > Selwood @ $2.05
1U - DT: Walker > Wingard @ $1.72
2U- DT: Minson > Cross @ $1.88
1U- DT: Swan > Pendlebury @ $1.62
1U- DT: Prestia > Bennell @ $1.80
1U- DT: Cornes > Boak @ $1.75
2U- DT: Selwood < 117.5 @ $1.87

Always good to come here and see that you too are on the same page as me for most of the bet.
I've not taken H2Hs involving Montagna just cause I don't think he will get tagged.
Firstly, Lyon has always rated Dal Santo higher & with Fremantle's lack of genuine mids, Crowley may just play as an on-baller.

I'll probably take Cotchin > Deledio @ $2.15.
Where did you guys find the line for Cotchin?
 
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