Keystone Agony and Butlers Dream Team bets

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TheMcGrathMan said:
Tailing Goddard/Mundy bet.

Butler especially, what do you guys think of the Johnson ($1.75) v J.Selwood ($2) H2H bet on Sportsbet?

Surely with the rain (more tackles/disposals for Selwood) Selwood would be worthwhile @ $2? Butler, I addressed this more to you because I was interested in who you thought, as an Eagles supporter, would be options to tag and who would the Eagles usually tag out of Selwood/Johnson?

Selwood has won this H2H 2-1 this year, but Johnson is also more able to go big (140+).

Cheers guys.
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I'm with KA on this one. I'm an Eagles supporter and I still can't figure out who will go to who.

Selwood to Selwood is the obvious match up but with no Shuey, Masten etc I think Selwood might be freed up. That makes Johnson a target but its just too big a risk.

I think Simpson will back in a Selwood v Selwood h2h and tag Johnson but that is must a guess. I would pass on that bet.
 
3U Griffen under 105.5 @1.87 (lux) WIN
Struggling GWS been a hard team to score against so far aswell

1U Levi Greenwood g2 (IAS) @10 VS Parker, Mitchell, Rok, Franklin, Bastinac, Goldy, Ately
May only need 90 odd to win this group ill take these odds scored 147 last week and will love the in and under SCG tackle sydney game in wet conditions.
 
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Keystone agony said:
Round 4

Luke Parker over Franklin 2U @1.75 (IAS) WIN
Franklin to get a very good defender in ST. Parker should like the tight tussle and bussle game against the roos at the SCG he is playing more midfield but also very capable of kicking goals when forward.

Kade Simpson over M.Murphy 1U @2.05 (Betstar) WIN
J.Mckenzie has come in and i expect him to tag Murphy

B.Gibbs over M.Murphy 1U @2.00 (IAS) WIN
Read above

Pendlebury over Cotchin 4U @1.80 (IAS) WIN
Cotchin to get the Macaffer tag against a far superior DTer in Pendlebury against the tigers who dont run with any hard tags

N.Jones under 97.5 1.5U @1.87 (ias) WIN
Expecting the Curnow tag. Jones didnt get tagged against the saints where he destroyed it and a very soft run with from Selwood. With rain and a tag i dont think he will go as big as he did in the first 2 rounds.

One more that i really like to come, will be my biggest play
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Keystone agony said:
My other big play was the one already recognised by Butler

Goddard over Mundy @1.88 (2U) (IAS) LOSS (DUE TO INJURY)
Dropped it back to just 2 units instead of 3 which i had originally thought of doing. Mundy to get Hocking tag have a tough day. Goddard in great form i cant see Mundy going much better than 80.

1U H.Hartlett @4.50 (group 2) (IAS) over Westhoff, Leunenberger, Moloney, Polec, Lobbe, Adcock, Mayes. LOSS
I see port winning comfortably. Brissy dont tag at the moment too much. Hartlett has got better each week so far. Expecting Patful to keep Westhoff to around 80. Leuy and Lobbe out of form scoring wise. Polec a rookie still but the major danger. Moloney doesnt go big. Adcock not scoring and Mayes relying on goals which the lions wont get.

1U Macrae @3.5 (group 2) (IAS) over Greene, Minson, Rob Murphy, H.Shaw, Kelly, Scully WIN
Hes the far superior scorer and the game looks wet good for his tackles and possession game. Murphy got tagged last time, Minson is udner scoring and up against mummy. Kelly rookie, Scully not scoring big, Greene either. H.Shaw seems the danger for Macrae.

1U EACH on Mackie @5, Bartel @5, duncan @4 over Darling, Gaff, Kennedy, NicNat, Caddy WIN (+2u)
Gonna be wet and tough for talls in Nicnat, Darling and Kennedy. Gaff also loves mark kicks but wet wont allow and cats should win easily. Caddy the main danger but hes scoring 60's last 2 weeks.
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Keystone agony said:
Pendlebury @4.50 1U WIN group one vs Beams, Cotchin, Martin, Swan, Deledio (NP), Sidebottom, Jackson (ias) Loss
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Keystone agony said:
3U Griffen under 105.5 @1.87 (lux) WIN
Struggling GWS been a hard team to score against so far aswell

1U Levi Greenwood g2 (IAS) @10 VS Parker, Mitchell, Rok, Franklin, Bastinac, Goldy, Ately LOSS
May only need 90 odd to win this group ill take these odds scored 147 last week and will love the in and under SCG tackle sydney game in wet conditions.
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Keystone agony said:
1U Mundy under 98.5 @1.87 (lux) WIN

1U Harvey under 99.5 @1.87 (lux) WIN
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Pretty damn good week the only long odd group bet that loss was due to injury. Only one of my long odd bets really came through at of the 4.

ROUND 4
+11.905 Units
 
2U D.Martin over 97.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Martin scores really well when either of Cotch or Deledio are missing. Not a lot of sample size of late but has gone 144 and 107 in the games they have missed. Expecting tigers to win and him to be onball as a major reason why.

2U Cotchin over 98.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Brisbane dont tag and have been scored against relatively easy this year. Wont get tagged he is going better than a 98.5 so i expect him to cover that.
 
I really dont like many bets for this week

1U Mcveigh under 94.5 @1.87 (Lux) LOSS
I think theres a fair chance that Crowley will tag him. Also think it will be a tough scoring game for sydney and freo should win.

1U Stokes over S.Mitchell @1.90 (IAS)
Think Guthrie will go to S.Mitchell in the middle

1.5U D.Pearce over S.Hill @1.75 (IAS) WIN
Think Hill will find himself with the Mcglynn tag

0.5U Duffield @9 (IAS group 2) over Parker, Franklin, Neale, Mzungu, Malceski, M.Johnson, Mcglynn LOSS
I like Parker as the one to win but Duffield has the value. May only need 85-90 to get over the line here.
Franklin - Struggle against freos tall defenders
Mcglynn - Will do a tagging/negating job
Parker - Freo should win fairly easy
Neale - Not a massive DT scorer
Mzungu - Same as Neale and will do a role/job
Malceski - Freo should win and are hard to score against especially being an outside player relying on marks
M.Johnson - Surely the swans cant let him roam free like the dons did. Hes a major risk aswell.
 
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Macrae O101.5 @ $1.87 for me. Smashed 101.5 3/4 times this year, should be good for 25 disposals, 7 marks, 3 tackles at least which will get him over the line. Cooney/Griffen surely tagged before him (Blues surely can't risk Griffen finding his form and let him roam free).
 

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Carlton v Western Bulldogs:

Lots of tags happened last time these two teams met. Wallis on Murphy, Cross on Simpson, Curnow on Cooney and Cachia on Griffen.

Mick has eased off running multiple taggers so far this year. He generally just runs Curnow with the oppositions best link up player. This is why I'm staying away from the Macrae line. I don't think Curnow will go to him but with Griffen still easing back into it and Libba not really being the type Carlton have been tagging I think it's a chance.

I think Bulldogs will stay with what worked last time. Simpson and Murphy to get tagged. Who Mick tags is difficult to guess at the best of times. I'm going to go with Cooney again but wouldn't be surprised if he goes to Macrae.

Have gone with:

Libba over 95.5 @1.87 (1U) luxbet
Simpson under 92.5 @1.87 (1U) luxbet
Gibbs over Cooney @1.80 (1U) Sportsbet
Simpson over Murphy @1.90 (1U) Betstar (placed this earlier in the week, shouldn't have taken it without proper research)
 
Nice to this thread up and running in 2014.
Really enjoyed the success & discussion in 2013, hope it continues for you guys.

Unfortunately, I'm heavily limited by Luxbet now so that's a decent amount of DT bets off-limits.
I have switched to disposals markets on Sportsbet/Sportingbet as it's similar enough to DT bets & done pretty well so far.

In terms of match-ups for today's game,
Gutrie TAG Mitchell (Think this will limit Mitchell's DT scoring more so than his disposals - Mitchell 95DT, 28 Disposals)
Lewis H2H Selwood (Selwood should dominate, like he usually does against the Hawks - Selwood 120DT, 26 Disposals w/ 7 tackles & a goal)
Burgoyne H2H Johnson, with Langford running around with (Can't see a good match-up for the Stevie J, think he just dominates today - Johnson 135 DT, 32 Disposals)

Thoughts?
 
Need to rebound. Havnt put heaps of time into this just gone on quick instinct and thoughts. No research really done.
1.5U Beams over Pendles @1.95 (Betstar) WIN
Done earlier in the week when i thought Hocking would go to Pendles. He was then out and i thought s**t but after hearing Melksham would go to him i had more confidence. Will prove this once i know how to upload pic of bet.

1.5U Hayes over Steven @1.90 (Betstar) WIN
1U Steven under 93.5 @1.87 (Lux) Loss

Expecting Raines to do a hard tagging job on Steven and maybe play for his career. This is one im not that confident in, in hindsight.

1U Watson over Stanton @2.15 (Betstar) Loss
Just great great Value.
1U Watson over 95.5 @1.87 (Lux) Loss
Pretty low line yes he hasnt scored great for last few weeks but i expect him to rebound today. Not expecting the Macaffer Tag either.

1U Chappy over Heppell @2.00 (IAS) Loss
1U Heppell Under 96.5 @2.10 (Lux) Loss
Im expecting Macaffer to tag Heppell after last weeks success and the unlikely Saints upset when he was tagged. Chappy also relishes big stages and is scoring every bit as good.

4U Harvey under 86.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Crowley tagged him last couple of times and no Wells means it should happen. Will be hard to score 86.5 in a bit of slippery wet conditions at perth against freo nevertheless. Its y big play. Crowley sets himself for Harvey.

2U Mundy over 95.5 @1.87 (Lux)
North dont really hard tag. Midfielder elites go well against them Swan, Pendles, Beams, Sidey last week. Is actually averaging 106.25 if you take out his injured subbed out game. Killing it this year and going under the radar. 2nd biggest play so far.

0.5U Mundy to win @4.50 (Group 1 IAS) vs
Fyfe - Maybe tag but a better DTer than anyway
Sandi - Goldy nullifies oppo rucks the best, hasnt been going massive
Cunnington - If freo win easily he wont have a massive day. Ziebell returning may mean less mid time
Ziebell - Only just returning against freo who arent gonna be easy to score against
D.Pearce - Doesnt go massive
Harvey - Crowley tag
NDS - Again freo win not expecting a massive score from him

2U Ward over 96.5 @1.87 (Lux)
GC dont tag. His line has been lowered to his last couple of weeks due to injury and so on. He should do pretty well against GC and get back to his earlier form.

2U Pavlich over Sandi @2.10 (IAS)
Bit of value here and i expect it to happen. No Scott Thompson is a reason why ive gone hard for MGS aswell for Pavlich. He looks in close to his best form this year. Sandi has been pondering around 70-85 ish last 3 weeks. Pavlich doesnt look like going below 80.

S.Gibson 2nd Group (ias) @5 vs Has avg 108.25 in his last 4 has a huge tank should enjoy the open Patersons ground
Neale - Unsure why hes favourite. Scored ok last week but not a massive scorer
Mzungu - Only avg 78 this year
M.Johnson - Is a worry been going very well last few weeks avg 90 for year and 110 and 96 last 2
Mullet - Struggling 44 and 50 last 2
Bastinac - Only 74 and 82 last 2 less mid time with ziebell back
Goldstein - Vs Sandi is struggling and will further struggle. No Currie may boost that avg slightly.


I wouldnt be overly confident in following me this week. If Crowley hard tags Harvey as i expect, Raines to Steven hard and Macaffer decides on Heppell as his best tag option i expect to do really well.
 
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I agree with most of your picks KA.

However I don't think Crowley goes to Harvey tonight, think he will go to NDS. I have hit NDS Under 95.5 pretty hard.
Not to say Harvey will be allowed to roam free but so your bet might still get up.

Think Montagna will get the tag if Raines indeed tags, not sure he will. Can't see Steven get tailed this game.

And I think Caff goes to Stanton, toss up between Heppell and Stanton but I think Stanton is the one. Took Watson overs in DT and Disposals cause I think he is in for a big day, but reports are that he might be crook. Hope that's not the case.
 
I also put 1.5u on Beams @1.95 (will check) over Pendles earlier in the week that i forgot about as my first bet will post image later after uni work and that. Was a bad day besides that one.
 
Willzzz said:
I agree with most of your picks KA.

However I don't think Crowley goes to Harvey tonight, think he will go to NDS. I have hit NDS Under 95.5 pretty hard.
Not to say Harvey will be allowed to roam free but so your bet might still get up.

Think Montagna will get the tag if Raines indeed tags, not sure he will. Can't see Steven get tailed this game.

And I think Caff goes to Stanton, toss up between Heppell and Stanton but I think Stanton is the one. Took Watson overs in DT and Disposals cause I think he is in for a big day, but reports are that he might be crook. Hope that's not the case.
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I just don't think Freo change up what has been working so well for them. I think he goes to Harvey. Unfortunately it is just guess worry though.

I had Swan over Watson for 1U today because I was 60% sure Caff would go to Watson but I forgot to post it before so I won't add it to my tally.
 
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