Keystone Agony and Butlers Dream Team bets

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I wouldnt be overly confident in following me this week. If Crowley hard tags Harvey as i expect, Raines to Steven hard and Macaffer decides on Heppell as his best tag option i expect to do really well.

Macaffer went to Watson

and no tag for Steven is turning this into a poor week
 
I just don't think Freo change up what has been working so well for them. I think he goes to Harvey. Unfortunately it is just guess worry though.

I had Swan over Watson for 1U today because I was 60% sure Caff would go to Watson but I forgot to post it before so I won't add it to my tally.
Provide evidence and add it mate. We arent that serious here.

I did so above aswell. Will add image when i get the chance.
 
I agree with most of your picks KA.

However I don't think Crowley goes to Harvey tonight, think he will go to NDS. I have hit NDS Under 95.5 pretty hard.
Not to say Harvey will be allowed to roam free but so your bet might still get up.

Think Montagna will get the tag if Raines indeed tags, not sure he will. Can't see Steven get tailed this game.

And I think Caff goes to Stanton, toss up between Heppell and Stanton but I think Stanton is the one. Took Watson overs in DT and Disposals cause I think he is in for a big day, but reports are that he might be crook. Hope that's not the case.
If i remember Willz lyon didnt tag NDS when at the saints instead of going to Hayes.

Im really confident he goes to Harvey. Well i need him to after my poor start and Macaffer going to Jobe.
 

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If i remember Willz lyon didnt tag NDS when at the saints instead of going to Hayes.

Im really confident he goes to Harvey. Well i need him to after my poor start and Macaffer going to Jobe.

Maybe, I haven't done a lot of research on it but I'm just thinking with the pinch-saga on Harvey last time they played, Ross may well put Crowley on someone else.
With Wells out, their only good disposer of the footy is NDS. Harvey will play HF/FF and still kick his goal or two whether Crowley tags him or not IMO.
 
Need to rebound. Havnt put heaps of time into this just gone on quick instinct and thoughts. No research really done.
1.5U Beams over Pendles @1.95 (Betstar) WIN
Done earlier in the week when i thought Hocking would go to Pendles. He was then out and i thought s**t but after hearing Melksham would go to him i had more confidence. Will prove this once i know how to upload pic of bet.

1.5U Hayes over Steven @1.90 (Betstar) WIN
1U Steven under 93.5 @1.87 (Lux) Loss


Expecting Raines to do a hard tagging job on Steven and maybe play for his career. This is one im not that confident in, in hindsight.

1U Watson over Stanton @2.15 (Betstar) Loss
Just great great Value.
1U Watson over 95.5 @1.87 (Lux) Loss
Pretty low line yes he hasnt scored great for last few weeks but i expect him to rebound today. Not expecting the Macaffer Tag either.

1U Chappy over Heppell @2.00 (IAS) Loss
1U Heppell Under 96.5 @2.10 (Lux) Loss

Im expecting Macaffer to tag Heppell after last weeks success and the unlikely Saints upset when he was tagged. Chappy also relishes big stages and is scoring every bit as good.

4U Harvey under 86.5 @1.87 (Lux) Loss (Thought it was a certain when Crowley went to him)
Crowley tagged him last couple of times and no Wells means it should happen. Will be hard to score 86.5 in a bit of slippery wet conditions at perth against freo nevertheless. Its y big play. Crowley sets himself for Harvey.

2U Mundy over 95.5 @1.87 (Lux) WIN (+1.74)
North dont really hard tag. Midfielder elites go well against them Swan, Pendles, Beams, Sidey last week. Is actually averaging 106.25 if you take out his injured subbed out game. Killing it this year and going under the radar. 2nd biggest play so far.

0.5U Mundy to win @4.50 (Group 1 IAS) vs WIN (+1.75U)
Fyfe -
Maybe tag but a better DTer than anyway
Sandi - Goldy nullifies oppo rucks the best, hasnt been going massive
Cunnington - If freo win easily he wont have a massive day. Ziebell returning may mean less mid time
Ziebell - Only just returning against freo who arent gonna be easy to score against
D.Pearce - Doesnt go massive
Harvey - Crowley tag
NDS - Again freo win not expecting a massive score from him

2U Ward over 96.5 @1.87 (Lux) WIN
GC dont tag. His line has been lowered to his last couple of weeks due to injury and so on. He should do pretty well against GC and get back to his earlier form.

2U Pavlich over Sandi @2.10 (IAS) Draw (+1.1U)
Bit of value here and i expect it to happen. No Scott Thompson is a reason why ive gone hard for MGS aswell for Pavlich. He looks in close to his best form this year. Sandi has been pondering around 70-85 ish last 3 weeks. Pavlich doesnt look like going below 80.

0.5U S.Gibson 2nd Group (ias) @5 vs WIN (+2U) Has avg 108.25 in his last 4 has a huge tank should enjoy the open Patersons ground
Neale - Unsure why hes favourite. Scored ok last week but not a massive scorer
Mzungu - Only avg 78 this year
M.Johnson - Is a worry been going very well last few weeks avg 90 for year and 110 and 96 last 2
Mullet - Struggling 44 and 50 last 2
Bastinac - Only 74 and 82 last 2 less mid time with ziebell back
Goldstein - Vs Sandi is struggling and will further struggle. No Currie may boost that avg slightly.


I wouldnt be overly confident in following me this week. If Crowley hard tags Harvey as i expect, Raines to Steven hard and Macaffer decides on Heppell as his best tag option i expect to do really well.

Cant believe Crowley couldnt stop harvey

My big bet lost. But got some good group wins. Ended up in the positives for the night.

ROUND 6 TD
5-1-6
(+0.365 Units)
 
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1U Coniglio over JOM @1.90 (IAS) Loss
Coniglio avg 102/103 compared to the 87 for JOM so far this year and is the underdog. Value.

1U SJ over K.Cornes @1.70 (IAS)
Maybe missed the value but the much better DT player. Kornes slowly dropped last few weeks. He also doesnt seem to do aswell against the best sides/players. Port dont tag so SJ should be good although im not expecting his recent form to continue. I still think he should win this one.

Looking at Rosa over Gaff. Gaff got tagged last time against the blues and the blues won. However Carlton tagged about 4. Will he get tagged im unsure Carazzo seems the only man to tag now at the blues and he went to Priddis last time.

2U M.Murphy under 99.5 @2.05 (Lux) Loss
Expecting the Scooter tag. He dominated last week and needs to be keep quiet. Offers value. I think Eagles win. Scooter kept Boak to 73 last week. Armiatge to 74, Libba to 84 all unders for those respective players.

2U S.Selwood Under 92.5 @1.95 (Lux) WIN
Under 92.5 DT points. Has looked terrible scoreing wise this year. Only covered that 1/4 in last 4 games and just and he struggled that game. Will go to Murphy id expect and think both will have below DT games.
 
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Round 6 TD
7-1-10
-0.995 Units

With
1U SJ over Kornes @1.70 (IAS)

and added
1U S.Jacobs win G2 (IAS) @8 vs Cooney, M.Crouch, R.Murphy, Dalhaus, B.Smith, W.Minson
See value and is avg like 105~ and been big last few weeks. Avg most of this group i believe and paying the most. Warnock scored well against Minson last week. Has some good names to contend with however
Minson - Struggling
Murphy - has a ceiling of about 90 and likely for tags
B.Smith - up and down not avg as much as jacobs this year
M.Crouch - My main worry just scores, however only playing his 3rd game still unsure if he can go an entire game without the sub vest
Cooney - Tags, not scoring well past few weeks.
Dalhaus - Up and down, depends on role and midfield time.
 
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2U Stanton over 109.5 @1.87
Loves the dogs. They dont seem to have a tagger either in Wallis or Jong so should help him. In good form at ES i expect him to go pretty big.

2U Montagna Under 108.5 @1.87 LOSS
vs the hawks. I know there is no Langford but i dont think Monty wouldve been tagged anyway. Traditionally struggles against the hawks being a very good side.

2U B.Ebert over 106.5 @1.87 LOSS
In really good form of late. GWS dont tag and he should enjoy a field day. Traditionally last year he did very well against GWS.

3U M.Murphy Under 94.5 @1.87 WIN
2U Sidebottom over M.murphy @1.75 (Bet365) WIN

Macaffer and in the wet wont suit his kick, mark, goals type game.

1U Mundy over 101.5 @1.87
Scored 117 and 113 last year on the eagles. Is at 103.5 at IAS. AVG 109.6 in full games so far this year. S.Selwood usually goes to Fyfe.

1U Ward over 95.5 @1.87 WIN
Has scored over this 4/5 times this year from full games. Avg 103 from full games. Kornes tag the only worry but i dont think it will be there he hasnt been tagging heavy.

2U Macrae over Griffen @1.80
Buddha Hocking usually goes to Griffen. Hes still struggling and not yet capable with his back of dismantling tags like he has before. Macrae should like ES and a free flowing game against the dons.

2U Sloane over N.Jones @1.85
3U N.Jones under 112.5 @1.87 (Bet365)

N.Jones should cop a pretty hard tag from Kerridge whos doing good jobs so far this year. Jones is in ripping form even against some mild tags in Mcglynn and S.Selwood. Sloane scoreing really well and should only continue against the demons.

2U S.Mitchell Under 105.5 @1.87 WIN
Tom Curren tag should nullify him and he doesnt bother too much against poor oppo as long as they win. I can see him playing a pretty casual role.

1U Dal SANTO Over 96.5 @1.87
GC dont tag. Has scored 4 hundreds of his last 5 games and that only other one being due to a Macaffer tag.

1U J.Selwood over 103.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Has covered this 4/6 times this year. His last 2 games has been given the 'tag' and just not performed against Kornes and Langford. But the cats should smash the tiggies and like S.Mitchell and co last week should score big against the tigers he will also love the wet conditions for tackles.

2U N.Riewoldt Under 96.5 @1.87 (Bet365) WIN
Is going to be pouring down with rain which will affect his avg of 10.2 marks per game. The hawks should kill the saints and the likely match up of Gibson will make it a very tough day for NROO. Also his knee is apparently feeling the worse it has for the year.

0.2U Birchall and Hodge each TO WIN GROUP 1 (IAS) @8 and @7 respectivily vs Montagna, Hayes, Ray, NRoo, Roughead, S.Mitchell LOSS (both came 2nd and 3rd in group as long odds)

All bets at Lux or IAS or Bet365
 
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I will also be listening to see if Mick Malthouse will let us in on who Carazzo will tag. 113.5 is quite a big line for Pendles or Beams vs Pendlebury could be a good one to get on.

I also like Group 1 Hawks vs Stk @IAS
Montagna - Usually struggles against the hawks
Mitchell - Curren tag
NROO - Gibson, hawks and rain will make it tough
Roughead - Out of form and Rain

Could be a bit of value for a guy like a Birchall @8 or Hodge @7 to have a big game. Dont think i will be getting on though.
 

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2U Stanton over 109.5 @1.87 LOSS
Loves the dogs. They dont seem to have a tagger either in Wallis or Jong so should help him. In good form at ES i expect him to go pretty big.

2U Montagna Under 108.5 @1.87 LOSS
vs the hawks. I know there is no Langford but i dont think Monty wouldve been tagged anyway. Traditionally struggles against the hawks being a very good side.

2U B.Ebert over 106.5 @1.87 LOSS
In really good form of late. GWS dont tag and he should enjoy a field day. Traditionally last year he did very well against GWS.

3U M.Murphy Under 94.5 @1.87 WIN
2U Sidebottom over M.murphy @1.75 (Bet365) WIN

Macaffer and in the wet wont suit his kick, mark, goals type game.

1U Mundy over 101.5 @1.87
Scored 117 and 113 last year on the eagles. Is at 103.5 at IAS. AVG 109.6 in full games so far this year. S.Selwood usually goes to Fyfe.

1U Ward over 95.5 @1.87 WIN
Has scored over this 4/5 times this year from full games. Avg 103 from full games. Kornes tag the only worry but i dont think it will be there he hasnt been tagging heavy.

2U Macrae over Griffen @1.80 WIN (HALF ODDS)
Buddha Hocking usually goes to Griffen. Hes still struggling and not yet capable with his back of dismantling tags like he has before. Macrae should like ES and a free flowing game against the dons.

2U Sloane over N.Jones @1.85 WIN
3U N.Jones under 112.5 @1.87 (Bet365) WIN

N.Jones should cop a pretty hard tag from Kerridge whos doing good jobs so far this year. Jones is in ripping form even against some mild tags in Mcglynn and S.Selwood. Sloane scoreing really well and should only continue against the demons.

2U S.Mitchell Under 105.5 @1.87 WIN
Tom Curren tag should nullify him and he doesnt bother too much against poor oppo as long as they win. I can see him playing a pretty casual role.

1U Dal SANTO Over 96.5 @1.87
GC dont tag. Has scored 4 hundreds of his last 5 games and that only other one being due to a Macaffer tag.

1U J.Selwood over 103.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Has covered this 4/6 times this year. His last 2 games has been given the 'tag' and just not performed against Kornes and Langford. But the cats should smash the tiggies and like S.Mitchell and co last week should score big against the tigers he will also love the wet conditions for tackles.

1u J.Watson over 107.5 @1.87 LOSS

2U N.Riewoldt under 96.5 (Bet365) @1.87 WIN


All bets at Lux or IAS or Bet365

RTD
+6.17 Units
 
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2U Stanton over 109.5 @1.87 Loss
Loves the dogs. They dont seem to have a tagger either in Wallis or Jong so should help him. In good form at ES i expect him to go pretty big.

2U Montagna Under 108.5 @1.87 LOSS
vs the hawks. I know there is no Langford but i dont think Monty wouldve been tagged anyway. Traditionally struggles against the hawks being a very good side.

2U B.Ebert over 106.5 @1.87 LOSS
In really good form of late. GWS dont tag and he should enjoy a field day. Traditionally last year he did very well against GWS.

3U M.Murphy Under 94.5 @1.87 WIN
2U Sidebottom over M.murphy @1.75 (Bet365) WIN

Macaffer and in the wet wont suit his kick, mark, goals type game.

1U Mundy over 101.5 @1.87 Loss
Scored 117 and 113 last year on the eagles. Is at 103.5 at IAS. AVG 109.6 in full games so far this year. S.Selwood usually goes to Fyfe.

1U Ward over 95.5 @1.87 WIN
Has scored over this 4/5 times this year from full games. Avg 103 from full games. Kornes tag the only worry but i dont think it will be there he hasnt been tagging heavy.

2U Macrae over Griffen @1.80 WIN (half odds)
Buddha Hocking usually goes to Griffen. Hes still struggling and not yet capable with his back of dismantling tags like he has before. Macrae should like ES and a free flowing game against the dons.

2U Sloane over N.Jones @1.85 WIN
3U N.Jones under 112.5 @1.87 (Bet365) WIN

N.Jones should cop a pretty hard tag from Kerridge whos doing good jobs so far this year. Jones is in ripping form even against some mild tags in Mcglynn and S.Selwood. Sloane scoreing really well and should only continue against the demons.

2U S.Mitchell Under 105.5 @1.87 WIN
Tom Curren tag should nullify him and he doesnt bother too much against poor oppo as long as they win. I can see him playing a pretty casual role.

1U Dal SANTO Over 96.5 @1.87 LOSS
GC dont tag. Has scored 4 hundreds of his last 5 games and that only other one being due to a Macaffer tag.

1U J.Selwood over 103.5 @1.87 (Lux) LOSS
Has covered this 4/6 times this year. His last 2 games has been given the 'tag' and just not performed against Kornes and Langford. But the cats should smash the tiggies and like S.Mitchell and co last week should score big against the tigers he will also love the wet conditions for tackles.

2U N.Riewoldt Under 96.5 @1.87 (Bet365) WIN
Is going to be pouring down with rain which will affect his avg of 10.2 marks per game. The hawks should kill the saints and the likely match up of Gibson will make it a very tough day for NROO. Also his knee is apparently feeling the worse it has for the year.

0.2U Birchall and Hodge each TO WIN GROUP 1 (IAS) @8 and @7 respectivily vs Montagna, Hayes, Ray, NRoo, Roughead, S.Mitchell LOSS (both came 2nd and 3rd in group as long odds)

All bets at Lux or IAS or Bet365

1U J.Watson Over 107.5 Loss

J.Selwood over cotch and j.selwood 27.5 posses + 0.5u @3.27 Loss

J.selwood over cotch and cotch under 27.5 posses @3.27 0.5ULoss

NDS over 27.5 posses and over prestia in dt points 0.5ULoss

D.Pearce over 22.5 posses over pavlich in DT points 0.5U@4.366 WIN


For those 5 bets above 1-0-4

+1.366 Units

Round 7 Total
+5.366 Units

Couldve and shouldve been a whole lot better. Got carried away a bit.
 
Jones under 97.5 for 1U (Kerridge)
Murphy under 94.5 for 1U (Macaffer)
Mitchell under 103.5 for 1U (Curren)

All with Luxbet.

A quiet week last round but happy to have gone 3-0.

So far this week:

Rockliff under 118.5 @1.75 (1U) Sportsbet
Should have Hocking on him.

Burgoyne over 94.5 @1.85 (1U) Bet365
Attended a season high centre square bounces last week with Mitchell down. Expecting him and Hodge to see more time in the middle which should help Burgoynes scoring.

Gray over Boak @1.72 (1U) Bet365
Boak should get the Crowley tag. Gray has been scoring very well of late and playing further up the ground.

Still on the lookout for a couple of other player markets which I'm hoping Luxbet will come through on.
 
1U Rockliff <118.5 @1.75 (IAS)
Hocking tag likely and expecting dons to win

1U L.Montagna <119.5 @1.75 (IAS)
Should get a Carlton tag. Maybe Armfield, Ellard, Cachia

2U Gray over Boak (Bet365) @1.72
Crowley tag for Boak and Gray scoring exceptionally well last 4 rounds in a move up the ground and onball

1U L.Hodge over Hanneberry (Bet365) @1.85 VOID
Hodge and Burgoyne dominated in the middle when Mitchell was left out i expect the same and Hodge loves big matches. Hanneberry an outside chance for the Langford tag aswell. I think Hawthorn will win and win fairly well so expect more scores for them than Sydney players.

1U L.Hodge over Birchall (IAS) @1.75 VOID
Read above.

2U M.Murphy under 96.5 @1.72 (Lux)
Should get a heavy tag from Curren who is in good form shutting down guys like Rockliff, Mitchell ect in the recent past.

2U Griffen Over 90.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Hes starting to come good and Melbourne without Mckenzie havnt been tagging to much it should mean a good night for Griffen against Melbourne who are relatively easy to score against

2U N.Jones Over 94.5 @1.87 (Lux)
No Jong or Wallis means the dogs dont really have a starting onball tagger unless Picken does the job. Has covered this 4/7 times this year and one being 93 just off.

2U Heppell over 99.5 (Lux) @1.87
Avg 110 this year. Brisbane give up massive scores and dont tag.

1.5U Liberatore Over Macrae (Betstar) @1.90
Libba has gone big the last 2 weeks enjoying the inclusion of Griffen. He also loves playing Melbourne more than any other team with some massive scores on them last year. Macrae has gone just 88 and 89 in his last 2 weeks and seems to be a little flat/burnt out as a 2nd year play. Needs the break.
1U S.Burgoyne over 92.5 DT points (Betstar) @1.85 LOSS
As said by Butler he attended a centre bounce high with Mitchell out last week. He scored 120 odd points, this is one i probably shouldve kept out of but feel without Mitchell he will benefit.





I also like S.Bugoyne doing well without Mitchell. Maybe against L.Parker in a H2H. Also looking for a M.Johnson bet
 
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RTD
4-2-3 (2 voided)
+2.27 Units

Really shouldve got on Jobe overs at 99.5 but i missed the value on him so didnt bother. Shouldve avoided Burgoyne as i said above.

Hocking didnt end up going to Rocky and Picken went to Jones which were really the 2 bets i lost so i got those predictions wrong but still end up well ahead.
 
1U Rockliff <118.5 @1.75 (IAS)
Hocking tag likely and expecting dons to win

1U L.Montagna <119.5 @1.75 (IAS)
Should get a Carlton tag. Maybe Armfield, Ellard, Cachia

2U Gray over Boak (Bet365) @1.72
Crowley tag for Boak and Gray scoring exceptionally well last 4 rounds in a move up the ground and onball

1U L.Hodge over Hanneberry (Bet365) @1.85 VOID
Hodge and Burgoyne dominated in the middle when Mitchell was left out i expect the same and Hodge loves big matches. Hanneberry an outside chance for the Langford tag aswell. I think Hawthorn will win and win fairly well so expect more scores for them than Sydney players.

1U L.Hodge over Birchall (IAS) @1.75 VOID
Read above.

2U M.Murphy under 96.5 @1.72 (Lux)
Should get a heavy tag from Curren who is in good form shutting down guys like Rockliff, Mitchell ect in the recent past.

2U Griffen Over 90.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Hes starting to come good and Melbourne without Mckenzie havnt been tagging to much it should mean a good night for Griffen against Melbourne who are relatively easy to score against

2U N.Jones Over 94.5 @1.87 (Lux)
No Jong or Wallis means the dogs dont really have a starting onball tagger unless Picken does the job. Has covered this 4/7 times this year and one being 93 just off.

2U Heppell over 99.5 (Lux) @1.87
Avg 110 this year. Brisbane give up massive scores and dont tag.

1.5U Liberatore Over Macrae (Betstar) @1.90
Libba has gone big the last 2 weeks enjoying the inclusion of Griffen. He also loves playing Melbourne more than any other team with some massive scores on them last year. Macrae has gone just 88 and 89 in his last 2 weeks and seems to be a little flat/burnt out as a 2nd year play. Needs the break.
1U S.Burgoyne over 92.5 DT points (Betstar) @1.85 LOSS
As said by Butler he attended a centre bounce high with Mitchell out last week. He scored 120 odd points, this is one i probably shouldve kept out of but feel without Mitchell he will benefit.





I also like S.Bugoyne doing well without Mitchell. Maybe against L.Parker in a H2H. Also looking for a M.Johnson bet
ROUND 8
5-2-4
+1.02 Units
 
ROUND 9 (Pies vs Crows)

2U Pendlebury under 114.5 @1.90 (BET 365) WIN


2U Dangerfield Under 103.5 @1.87 (Lux) LOSS
2U R.Sloane over Dangerfield @1.75 (Bet365) LOSS

Group 2 (IAS/Sportsbet) DT group
0.33U B.Smith @6 (Avg 92 this year and can go 120-130 big) LOSS
0.34U S.Jacobs @6 (Avg 100 against Grundy, has gone over 108 5x this year) WIN
0.33U J.Elliot @6 (Avg 105 in his last 5 games) LOSS


Vs M.Wright, M.Crouch, T.Cloke, Grundy, L.Ball

1U Hibberd over Zacka @1.75 (IAS)
Zacka horribly, horribly out of form. Hibbo continues his consistent scoring of 85-100.

0.5U J.Selwood over Fyfe @2 (IAS)
Calling it that Fyfe gets the hard tag from Guthrie and J.Selwood escapes the Crowley tag who goes to SJ.

1U Heppell over Hanneberry (B365) @1.85
Hanneberry has been hurting me of late with a couple of bets and some that i was lucky were voided. He will cop the Hocking tag who kept him to 60-70 odd last year. Heppell is avg over 110 and should go about his business if Sydney get on top id expect him to get a 90 odd however cant see a problem in a closish contest it being around his average. I think Heppell is avg 121~ without the tag this year.
 
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A few more for the round
1U N.Jones >25 posses @1.87 (Ill try keep it to DT but when i prefer the disposals on the same player i just take it - Also like >90.5) (Lux)

2U S.Gibson over 98.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Brisbane are leaking points especially through the midfield. Hes averaging way over this, just look at his last 6 rounds its like over a 110 average. Bet365 have his line at 106.5

1U NDS over 91.5 @1.87 (Lux)
Read above.

0.5U Hanneberry under 28.5 disposals @1.85 (Lux) - WAS LOOKING FOR A HANNEBERRY MARKET
Hocking tag

1U SJ under 28.5 disposals @1.87 (IAS) - WAS ALSO LOOKING FOR AN SJ MARKET

Crowley tag

0.33U L.Hansen @6 group 2 IAS vs Ziebell, Bastinac, Goldstein, Lester, J.Brown, Adcock, Aish
0.2U Ziebell @2.25 (Same group)

5U Montagna over 106.5 DT (Bet365)
Has been way better than this of late and for the year. GC dont tag through the middle at etihad stadium i expect him to go about his normal ways. My big bet for the round.
 
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