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Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

Discussion in 'Phantom Drafts' started by Knightmare, Jun 11, 2012.

Put it out there
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  1. Goatusboy

    Goatusboy Draftee

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    Hi Knightmare,

    I posted a while ago in this thread asking about your projections for ball-winning players in the draft and and you very kindly posted 3 detailed lists covering pure ball winning, long term ball winning and ability to play next year. Now the draft is concluded, I was hoping to bother you further by coming clean with my motives. I am football fanatic and one aspect of that is a long-term dynasty DT league. Without boring you with the details I was hoping you may be able to make me a similar combined list for our upcoming draft. So the real aspects to consider are ball winning ability first and foremost, whether cheap possessions or handballs from a pack, and then combine that with potential to play next year. Basically, I would love your thoughts on who will be the most dominant accumulators from this year's draft.

    I realise this is a bit of a cheeky request considering the kind of thought and detail you put into your phantom draft and my concerns are more abstracted (being related to potential dream team scoring, rather than necessarily a player's athleticism or skill).

    Whatever you could provide would be much appreciated.

    Cheers

    Goatboy
     

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  2. Knightmare

    Knightmare Premium Platinum

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    I'm happy to answer dt/sc questions.

    The ones I'll be looking at for my dreamteam and supercoach right now: Oliver Wines, Jack Viney, Brad Crouch (might be back eligable), Troy Menzel (might be forward eligable).*All look like high production options and could all play close to 22 games for their respective sides if preseason form looks good. All are good options in both games.

    Whitfield, O'Rourke will both get good numbers but no sure they are worth the price of early draft selections in a fantasy football sense.
    Toumpas same but again will get good numbers and be a regular.
    Stringer and Macrae if forward eligable might be worth a look and might be worth consideration.
    Vlastuin will receive games and if listed and a defender could be worth consideration.
    Jesse Lonergan for Gold Coast won't play every week but I expect he will be in the side more weeks than not and as that stronger bodied inside mid will do pretty well. Consider.
    Garner and Thurlow watch for preseason form.
    Brodie Grundy should play at some point for Collingwood through the ruck and is ready to go when needed, may play 5-6 games but probably more as a no.2 ruckman.
    Kennedy also a strong chance to play given he could what he could do even as a 17 year old. Could get 7-8 games but likely not round 1.
    Hrovat is as ready to go as any but not sure he gets games in that deep, young WBD midfield so while I hyped him up a month ago probably not one I'd take anymore.
    Dean Towers might be a chance to get some games off a back flank for Sydney as a mature ager but probably won't be the highest production mature ager.
    Nathan Wright for St Kilda can play some games down back from next season but probably doesn't start round 1.

    Ashby, Temay, Duffy, M.Wood, McDonough, Membrey, Kent can all play next year and might later in the season break in for some games depending on form.

    Then the late draft mature agers all chances for games (all must be watched and preseason form will give best picture for where they fit in the teams plans): Van Unen (may get some opportunies off a back flank but don't expect round 1 start and don't expect to be a regular), M.Jones (may get some midfield games and as a taller mid may get more opportunity), Currie (likely ruck depth), Hutchings (if he gets games will be high production through midfield but probably doesn't start round 1 in a deep midfield), Terlich (defender - another I'm considering and may be the pick of the mature agers. Can play 22 games and produce good numbers), Kommer (will get games and should get ok numbers, round 1 possibly not and may have to produce at VFL level first).
     
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  3. boe7

    boe7 Debutant

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    Great work NM, really appreciate your efforts.

    Further to Goatboy's question regarding dynasty DT leagues. The comments above are very useful for next year but who do you see as the standouts in 3-5 yrs once they've had a chance to establish themselves??
     
  4. Knightmare

    Knightmare Premium Platinum

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    Pretty much as per my power rankings. That top 10 I have very high hopes for long term in 3-5 years down the track I expect to be among the very best to come from this draft.

    Daniher being more key forward certainly in the immediate won't be a DT/SC option and he may never be with those talls not all that useful in a fantasy sense.

    O'Meara short term I'm not expecting as much as others are and I see him more as someone who 4-5 years down the road can really be something special in an Ablett type way. But first year, or even those first couple of years more glimpses of something special than a super consistent picture of greatness with an average of 15 disposals per game probably more what you are looking at in the immediate but later on can be whatever he wants to be when fully developed.

    Whitfield can be excellent from season one and produce some 25 disposals games without any issues. Could at his best become a 30, maybe 35 disposal per game player with the way those average diposals per game numbers seem to increase every year with the pace of the game. Could be a premium option some time down the track.

    Crouch can be an immediate type but I'm probably expecting him to play more out of the back half in season one. Genuine rising star chance though with his strong body and explosive pace. Might become something close to another Dangerfield as that dynamic inside type who might get 20-25 disposals per game but be damaging with the way he wins that contested footy and in that sense be more of a supercoach type.

    Toumpas is more of a damaging type with his 60m kick and pace and might not be as high production as some of the others on this list but wins his own ball and could be good for 20 disposals per game at some point down the track with the key with him being the damage he does with is so likely not a dreamteam option.

    Macrae in season one will be good but it's more season 3-4 if/when he develops an inside game and puts size on his frame that he excites me. Can become another Pendlebury and if any signs that he could become something like this could be something in either game. As such a major improver this season don't expect his rapid development to stop any time soon.

    Viney will be immediate and play most games in season one and could be something similar to Toby Greene as that strong inside type. Season one, season two expect his numbers to be as high as any. Long term I'm not sure if he becomes that super premium but could certainly be a 25 disposal per game type with a large portion of that being meaningful inside ball.

    Wines will short term and long term be an absolute fantasy footy star. Can become another Jobe Watson with that sheer quantity of inside ball he wins. Expect him to be a 20 disposal per game type in season one as that inside player. More isn't beyond him. Can become one of the best in this draft and a likely premium midfielder in 3-4 years.

    Grundy has the ability to become a top 5 league ruckman at some stage down the track. Can play games right away if required but as with all talls don't expect premium scores right away and in early seasons will more likely breakever with opponents as opposed to dominate.

    Stringer for me it will come down to position. If played as a key forward long term I think he will be a wasted talent and a waste in a DT/SC sense. If developed into a strong bodied midfielder he can be as good as any in this draft with the contested ball he can win and can become a Josh Kennedy type and can become something really special very quickly as that early bloomer and with a preseason into his knee should come back a different player next season and produce right away. Could within 3-4 seasons become a near premium.


    O'Rourke can also be up there but I rate him slightly below this bunch as he isn't that same contested ball winner.

    Menzel in the immediate can be good but knee issues a problem for me and wouldn't bet on him as he could go down with a season ending knee at any time, any year.

    Jesse Lonergan and Tim Membrey for their respective teams if they develop into those strong bodied inside midfielders could also be players to watch long term as fantasy options.
     
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  5. boe7

    boe7 Debutant

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    Perfect, thank you.
     
  6. Sezzac1

    Sezzac1 Club Legend

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    The $64 question. Why would GWS take O'Rourke over Toumpas?

    Any thoughts other than Toumpas didn't play for Vic Metro. ;)
     
  7. yaco55

    yaco55 Premium Platinum

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    GWS seems to mainly pick VIc Metro boys, and often from the same team.

    Suppose their strategy is they will become a close group, and are less likely to leave GWS.
     
  8. Goatusboy

    Goatusboy Draftee

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    Thanks so much for that Knightmare and thanks Boe7 for that follow-up question - that was exactly what I was going to ask next. You've made my day :)

    Cheers

    Goatboy
     
  9. Knightmare

    Knightmare Premium Platinum

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    They probably feel O'Rourke is more inside and did have the higher level production with the better numbers he was accumulating. Probably has the slightly better pace and footskills just as damaging, if slightly less penetration. The sense I get with the way GWS are building their list is that they want to be more inside than out and that with the hard inside ball winners already there they are probably looking for more of an inside receiver which is where O'Rourke comes in.

    I've certainly seen SOS and his team (Scully and co) at Visy watching the Vic boys with a big crew in for the TAC finals series. It is curious that it's the metro boys specifically. SOS I get the sense likes those private school boys in particular who in his words haven't played a lot of footy.

    That said Metro had the better KPPs overall (in what was a very strong KPP year for them) and with GWS targetting those talls this year it's not surprising they went with the Metro boys with Clurey the only country boy who appeals with Membrey likely to play smaller at the next level and Tanner Smith disappointing for mine.

    Collingwood took the 3 SA boys early and I think GWS used the same idea where by bringing in a group who know eachother it might limit the go-home factor.
     
  10. Hawthorn231533

    Hawthorn231533 Account Cancelled by User

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    Hey KM hawks recruiting manager said we will pick up a ruck who is the best option
     
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  11. Igloo

    Igloo Moderator

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    I'm not KM, but I think Darcy Fort would be a good option.
     

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  12. Iason

    Iason World Class

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    Great work Knight, thanks for everything.

    What did you think of the Gold Coast's draft?
     
  13. Sunny_

    Sunny_ Moderator

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    In addition to above, what are your thoughts on Leigh Osborne, Knightmare? Training with the Suns. Don't know much above him other than he's an offensive flanker from Frankston.
     
  14. juzzo

    juzzo Premiership Player

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    Your not? Agree though Fort is the logical option for a rookie spot. Hannath will probably want to play pretty early and it looks like Melbourne will take him anyway.
     
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  15. Knightmare

    Knightmare Premium Platinum

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    It depends on specifically what you are after.

    The better ruck prospect is Darcy Fort but probably not a guy you want playing next season and will need plenty of time.

    Cameron Symonds and Michael Sikora are more medium term type options who you probably don't want to play next year either but won't take as long and as super tall ruckmen could be interesting.

    Mark Seaby is probably the better established type if looking for someone who can play next year serving as that solid depth option.

    Jack Hannath as a depth type could be looked at as a mature ager from SA.

    Also don't be surprised if Eric Wallace is also looked at as that American recruit. With his strength and athleticism could also intrigue but having never played is an unknown and you just can't predict how quickly he can pick up the game.

    Lonergan a good fit. Gold Coast desperately needed a strong bodied inside midfield and Lonergan is a very solid pickup with that combination of inside extracting and athleticism I think he can go on and have strong success.

    Clay Cameron as a zone selection pretty straightforward and might otherwise have been a mid-late draft option as a key defender who can play some forward.

    Tim Sumner is an interesting one. Has very impressive pace and it's pretty clear Gold Coast want to create an athletic advantage over all rivals. Has some hardness and isn't that soft outside type so he does intrigue. One of those guys where late draft Gold Coast are just taking a chance on him and hoping for the best but hard to see who he goes past in a team littered with some really outstanding outside types and might have been better as a rookie selection.

    The key was always Lonergan and I think he a better selection than the rumoured Aidan Corr and Josh Simpson who were heavily linked to Gold Coast.
     
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  16. Knightmare

    Knightmare Premium Platinum

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    Osborne has some real pace and can generate some real drive from the back half with that explosive pace he has. Previously played amateurs and this year went onto the Frankston VFL list and made the transition no problems and didn't struggle at all with the change of pace which is a great sign.

    Worth a shot for Gold Coast and with Toy leaving is a very nice fit into that back half. Low risk but can play a role right away and to a solid standard as one of the better mature agers from this years group.
     
  17. ArjenTheGreat

    ArjenTheGreat Premiership Player

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    Thanks for your work KM.... any chance you'll be doing a mock rookie draft?
     
  18. Knightmare

    Knightmare Premium Platinum

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    On page one I posted some psd+rookie draft related content since the draft.

    But I don't have any plans to do a full rookie mock draft. Don't have the time at the moment with work committments but happy to answer questions about any of the players I listed on page one or whatever other questions people may have.
     
  19. ajsuperstar

    ajsuperstar Senior List

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    Hey knight, was wondering who you think the top few mature aged players running around the state leagues are, that are yet to be drafted? and would jaryd cachia happen to be anywhere near that group?
     
  20. Knightmare

    Knightmare Premium Platinum

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    Cachia has shown something as that strong inside midfielder. Very stiff to get delisted by Carlton so soon and had a strong season in the SANFL this year playing some really impressive football. Could be a rookie option, not sure he becomes anything incredible at the next level but I believe he could play a role for a team and if a spot in a midfield was open to him he has the ability to take it.

    Leigh Osborne as a back flanker can play. Kyle Martin through the midfield also really excellent and could also rotate onto a forward flakn. Justin Hardy as a versatile tall who can play forward/back/ruck is the better tall left. Ben Duscher is probably that really top end, elite state league midfielder but has been unlucky with injury this year. Ben Ross had an excellent season in the VFL and was very stiff to get delisted by North Melbourne at the end of 2011, has some class. Sam Dwyer also an excellent immediate midfielder who could come in and play a role for a team or provide strong depth both through the midfield and up forward but struggled with injury this year. Sean Tighe is another handy versatile tall with the range to play ruck/forward/back.

    Joel Tippett has his fans as a key defender having had a strong season in the SANFL. Jack Hannath as a mature ruckman is another with his fans.

    Probably plenty I've missed but these are some of the better options.
     
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  21. captainrich

    captainrich All Australian

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    there is a bit of confusion on the lions board do you know whether richard newell a former nsw scholarship player upgraded to rookie last year would he count as a main rookie, now hat only 4 are allowed list is tight or would he count as the 3 outside development rookies? thanks

    also do you think Lions will try for another forward already gained two in the draft maybe a back like Rodda or someone would be a better option, with the midfielders do you see us taking Pogniriac just wondering why you think he was overlooked was he just a man playing a game with teenagers and would struggle in the step up? thanks
     
  22. Asgardian

    Asgardian Bigfooty Jedi

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    He's now out training with us (Port)
     
  23. juzzo

    juzzo Premiership Player

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    Scholarship players are category B.
     
  24. Iason

    Iason World Class

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    Thanks Knight, this was my first draft as a fan and your mock was priceless. Based on your descriptions, I wasn't keen on Josh Simpson and felt we needed a Lonergan, since there was no way Ollie Wines would slide to us. Had he been a year older, do you think Jack Martin would've been a top 10 pick?
     
  25. Knightmare

    Knightmare Premium Platinum

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    NSW/ACT rookies are category B rookies. Juzzo is correct so no Newell is not part of those 4 (category A rookies).

    No clarity who else Brisbane target through the rookie draft. More KPPs taken in the national draft than expected so not all that much is left but certainly possible Brisbane target a KPP. Brisbane probably take a midfielder also depending on how many active selections.

    Thanks for the info.

    Port are liking Prismall (PSD), then Colquhoun and Jurrah in the rookie draft so I see Port passing on Colqhoun in favour of this trio.

    Thanks for the kind words.

    Simpson I'm not all that confident about and with the info that he has had a baby I'm even less certain. So many young players who have kids early really lose that focus on their football so it will be interesting to see how Simpson handles it. To best utilise Simpson he really needs a strong inside group around him and I'm not seeing Fremantle as that right destination with Stephen Hill and then Danyle Pearce who is the same thing. Gold Coast the same with Bennell, Martin then a number of other outside types with McKenzie more footskill based. I'm just not seeing a need for more of the same with Bennell and Martin clearly better and higher production players anyway with more advanced ball winning ability to go with that hurt factor.

    Martin would certainly have been a top 10 pick and would have gone clear top 5.
     
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