Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

In response to Aussierules, I'm not going to quote all that but with St Kilda it all remains to be seen. You need to see things 4 years down the track with talls or 2 years down the track with everyone else to get a gauge on whether St Kilda have got it right. In my view St Kilda are heading in the right direction which given where you came from at this stage is all you can expect. Are St Kilda better drafters than Geelong/Adelaide/Collingwood? I wouldn't bet on it and these are the teams who more years than not seem to in my view anyway really be the clubs who get it more right than any other club.

I consider it a bit like Richmond with their trading. Until it became obvious that they could trade effectively - Ivan Maric, Shaun Grigg, Bachar Houli they weren't. Now that they've proven they can trade with the best clubs in the league identifying talent others probably wouldn't recognise and they are now one of the very best.

St Kilda have that same opportunity. With mature age drafting which St Kilda are putting more into than the next club, it's a has a higher percentage return than the other forms of recruiting and St Kilda seem to have identified this and because that young-middle age segment of the list is non-existant it is a clear, and good recruiting strategy by St Kilda to build a competitive team post Riewoldt/Hayes/Fisher. There has been nothing to suggest a team can make a premiership team out of state leaguers because it hasn't been done, but it doesn't necessarily mean that it won't happen.

I one thing I'm not necessarily liking as much with St Kilda's recruiting and this is only my view is the overspending on mature talents (specifically Hickey from Gold Coast and Lee from the WAFL). Neither are proven and when spending that price you really need to be. State league recruiting while Geelong did exceeding well with Harry Taylor and Sydney did with Lewis Jetta early draft, it's still more effective when using late draft selections or rookie selections when the right talent has been identified. Sometimes there are times where it is right to use an early draft selection on a mature age type talent, but I don't believe Lee and Hickey while they can both make the grade are worth that level of currency spent and in a draft where there is such a significant different in the talent at 12/13 as opposed to around selections 25 I don't believe it was the right move. But this is only my opinion.

I'm not more qualified to give a judgement than anyone else and I by no means expect to outperform an entire football club when it comes to recruiting, I'm not a full time recruiter and with the amount of staff and the time those staff spend identifying and analysing talent it would be foolish to suggest that I alone can.

On Grundy I don't see him as a problem guy at all. He is a winner. In the post draft interview he was talking premierships. The guy is committed to his work and from what I understand scored and enter in the 90s so the guy is not only smart but also committed. Any ruckman who spends two years in the gym and can carry 100kg as well as he does and still retains his athleticism clearly has put in the time and that to me suggests he will continue to do the same at the next level.

On Collingwood since you have bought it up. Collingwood have always had the worst ruck development program and the worst ability of all clubs league wide to identify ruckmen. With Grundy and now Ben Hudson being bought in as a ruck coach to work with Grundy and Witts I'm hopeful that changes things but as demonstrated by Collingwood spending a premium to add Cameron Wood, Jonathan Ceglar, then a large number of ruckmen in years preceeding it's something Collingwood have just never been able to do often taking players with frames too light to ever put on the required weight, or when they did it meant because their bodies weren't made for it led to either a complete loss in previous athleticism or injury. Grundy is Collingwood's first ruck prospect, with perhaps Witts another where it could work because they both have those larger frames more naturally and won't have the problems the majority of those previous ruck prospects Collingwood had before them.

On the height of key defenders. Not happy with the 192cm Darren Glass' effort on Kurt Tippett where the big guy only had 4 disposals and no shots at goal?
Tom Hawkins had his worst games of the year against Darren Glass and Ben Rutten who are both 192cm. Against Glass only the two disposals, one goal. Against Rutten 8 disposals, no goals.
Being 10cm shorter doesn't matter if you can play. People don't go around calling Glass or Rutten too short. They make up for it because 1v1 they are so strong and can despite being shorter in many cases compete with any key forward they come up against because they don't get outbodied and with that the taller key forward has no advantage despite the height difference.

I suspect you are right. I rated Clurey. It appears AFL didn't and early draft it is always about going best available.

Before I was talking more if St Kilda didn't involve themselves in trade week with those monster Lee + Hickey trades then this might have been an alternative potential outcome that might have been better. It's certainly the way I would have approached it but it's something for hindsight where some years down the track it will become clear what the most correct course of action was.

Kent is a strong little contested ball winner. Has an explosive kick on him. Will likely play a role off a forward flank and potentially later career rotate into the midfield some. Has a hard edge to him I think Neeld will really like.

Jones could have the opportunity through the midfield to find a role as that taller mid and as that mature ager could find earlier opportunities depending on preseason form.

Terlich is another mature ager so it's clear Melbourne want that more immediate boost. Has a nice kick on him and will play in the back half. Had a strong finals series in the SANFL and with so many quality defenders coming out of that Norwood program in recent years don't be surprised if Terlich is another really good one who can play right away and play some good footy.

Hi Knightmare,

I posted a while ago in this thread asking about your projections for ball-winning players in the draft and and you very kindly posted 3 detailed lists covering pure ball winning, long term ball winning and ability to play next year. Now the draft is concluded, I was hoping to bother you further by coming clean with my motives. I am football fanatic and one aspect of that is a long-term dynasty DT league. Without boring you with the details I was hoping you may be able to make me a similar combined list for our upcoming draft. So the real aspects to consider are ball winning ability first and foremost, whether cheap possessions or handballs from a pack, and then combine that with potential to play next year. Basically, I would love your thoughts on who will be the most dominant accumulators from this year's draft.

I realise this is a bit of a cheeky request considering the kind of thought and detail you put into your phantom draft and my concerns are more abstracted (being related to potential dream team scoring, rather than necessarily a player's athleticism or skill).

Whatever you could provide would be much appreciated.

Cheers

Goatboy

I'm happy to answer dt/sc questions.

The ones I'll be looking at for my dreamteam and supercoach right now: Oliver Wines, Jack Viney, Brad Crouch (might be back eligable), Troy Menzel (might be forward eligable).*All look like high production options and could all play close to 22 games for their respective sides if preseason form looks good. All are good options in both games.

Whitfield, O'Rourke will both get good numbers but no sure they are worth the price of early draft selections in a fantasy football sense.
Toumpas same but again will get good numbers and be a regular.
Stringer and Macrae if forward eligable might be worth a look and might be worth consideration.
Vlastuin will receive games and if listed and a defender could be worth consideration.
Jesse Lonergan for Gold Coast won't play every week but I expect he will be in the side more weeks than not and as that stronger bodied inside mid will do pretty well. Consider.
Garner and Thurlow watch for preseason form.
Brodie Grundy should play at some point for Collingwood through the ruck and is ready to go when needed, may play 5-6 games but probably more as a no.2 ruckman.
Kennedy also a strong chance to play given he could what he could do even as a 17 year old. Could get 7-8 games but likely not round 1.
Hrovat is as ready to go as any but not sure he gets games in that deep, young WBD midfield so while I hyped him up a month ago probably not one I'd take anymore.
Dean Towers might be a chance to get some games off a back flank for Sydney as a mature ager but probably won't be the highest production mature ager.
Nathan Wright for St Kilda can play some games down back from next season but probably doesn't start round 1.

Ashby, Temay, Duffy, M.Wood, McDonough, Membrey, Kent can all play next year and might later in the season break in for some games depending on form.

Then the late draft mature agers all chances for games (all must be watched and preseason form will give best picture for where they fit in the teams plans): Van Unen (may get some opportunies off a back flank but don't expect round 1 start and don't expect to be a regular), M.Jones (may get some midfield games and as a taller mid may get more opportunity), Currie (likely ruck depth), Hutchings (if he gets games will be high production through midfield but probably doesn't start round 1 in a deep midfield), Terlich (defender - another I'm considering and may be the pick of the mature agers. Can play 22 games and produce good numbers), Kommer (will get games and should get ok numbers, round 1 possibly not and may have to produce at VFL level first).

Great work NM, really appreciate your efforts.

Further to Goatboy's question regarding dynasty DT leagues. The comments above are very useful for next year but who do you see as the standouts in 3-5 yrs once they've had a chance to establish themselves??

Pretty much as per my power rankings. That top 10 I have very high hopes for long term in 3-5 years down the track I expect to be among the very best to come from this draft.

Daniher being more key forward certainly in the immediate won't be a DT/SC option and he may never be with those talls not all that useful in a fantasy sense.

O'Meara short term I'm not expecting as much as others are and I see him more as someone who 4-5 years down the road can really be something special in an Ablett type way. But first year, or even those first couple of years more glimpses of something special than a super consistent picture of greatness with an average of 15 disposals per game probably more what you are looking at in the immediate but later on can be whatever he wants to be when fully developed.

Whitfield can be excellent from season one and produce some 25 disposals games without any issues. Could at his best become a 30, maybe 35 disposal per game player with the way those average diposals per game numbers seem to increase every year with the pace of the game. Could be a premium option some time down the track.

Crouch can be an immediate type but I'm probably expecting him to play more out of the back half in season one. Genuine rising star chance though with his strong body and explosive pace. Might become something close to another Dangerfield as that dynamic inside type who might get 20-25 disposals per game but be damaging with the way he wins that contested footy and in that sense be more of a supercoach type.

Toumpas is more of a damaging type with his 60m kick and pace and might not be as high production as some of the others on this list but wins his own ball and could be good for 20 disposals per game at some point down the track with the key with him being the damage he does with is so likely not a dreamteam option.

Macrae in season one will be good but it's more season 3-4 if/when he develops an inside game and puts size on his frame that he excites me. Can become another Pendlebury and if any signs that he could become something like this could be something in either game. As such a major improver this season don't expect his rapid development to stop any time soon.

Viney will be immediate and play most games in season one and could be something similar to Toby Greene as that strong inside type. Season one, season two expect his numbers to be as high as any. Long term I'm not sure if he becomes that super premium but could certainly be a 25 disposal per game type with a large portion of that being meaningful inside ball.

Wines will short term and long term be an absolute fantasy footy star. Can become another Jobe Watson with that sheer quantity of inside ball he wins. Expect him to be a 20 disposal per game type in season one as that inside player. More isn't beyond him. Can become one of the best in this draft and a likely premium midfielder in 3-4 years.

Grundy has the ability to become a top 5 league ruckman at some stage down the track. Can play games right away if required but as with all talls don't expect premium scores right away and in early seasons will more likely breakever with opponents as opposed to dominate.

Stringer for me it will come down to position. If played as a key forward long term I think he will be a wasted talent and a waste in a DT/SC sense. If developed into a strong bodied midfielder he can be as good as any in this draft with the contested ball he can win and can become a Josh Kennedy type and can become something really special very quickly as that early bloomer and with a preseason into his knee should come back a different player next season and produce right away. Could within 3-4 seasons become a near premium.


O'Rourke can also be up there but I rate him slightly below this bunch as he isn't that same contested ball winner.

Menzel in the immediate can be good but knee issues a problem for me and wouldn't bet on him as he could go down with a season ending knee at any time, any year.

Jesse Lonergan and Tim Membrey for their respective teams if they develop into those strong bodied inside midfielders could also be players to watch long term as fantasy options.

Perfect, thank you.

The $64 question. Why would GWS take O'Rourke over Toumpas?

Any thoughts other than Toumpas didn't play for Vic Metro.

GWS seems to mainly pick VIc Metro boys, and often from the same team.

Suppose their strategy is they will become a close group, and are less likely to leave GWS.

Thanks so much for that Knightmare and thanks Boe7 for that follow-up question - that was exactly what I was going to ask next. You've made my day

Cheers

Goatboy

They probably feel O'Rourke is more inside and did have the higher level production with the better numbers he was accumulating. Probably has the slightly better pace and footskills just as damaging, if slightly less penetration. The sense I get with the way GWS are building their list is that they want to be more inside than out and that with the hard inside ball winners already there they are probably looking for more of an inside receiver which is where O'Rourke comes in.

I've certainly seen SOS and his team (Scully and co) at Visy watching the Vic boys with a big crew in for the TAC finals series. It is curious that it's the metro boys specifically. SOS I get the sense likes those private school boys in particular who in his words haven't played a lot of footy.

That said Metro had the better KPPs overall (in what was a very strong KPP year for them) and with GWS targetting those talls this year it's not surprising they went with the Metro boys with Clurey the only country boy who appeals with Membrey likely to play smaller at the next level and Tanner Smith disappointing for mine.

Collingwood took the 3 SA boys early and I think GWS used the same idea where by bringing in a group who know eachother it might limit the go-home factor.

Hey KM hawks recruiting manager said we will pick up a ruck who is the best option

Great work Knight, thanks for everything.

What did you think of the Gold Coast's draft?

Your not? Agree though Fort is the logical option for a rookie spot. Hannath will probably want to play pretty early and it looks like Melbourne will take him anyway.

It depends on specifically what you are after.

The better ruck prospect is Darcy Fort but probably not a guy you want playing next season and will need plenty of time.

Cameron Symonds and Michael Sikora are more medium term type options who you probably don't want to play next year either but won't take as long and as super tall ruckmen could be interesting.

Mark Seaby is probably the better established type if looking for someone who can play next year serving as that solid depth option.

Jack Hannath as a depth type could be looked at as a mature ager from SA.

Also don't be surprised if Eric Wallace is also looked at as that American recruit. With his strength and athleticism could also intrigue but having never played is an unknown and you just can't predict how quickly he can pick up the game.

Lonergan a good fit. Gold Coast desperately needed a strong bodied inside midfield and Lonergan is a very solid pickup with that combination of inside extracting and athleticism I think he can go on and have strong success.

Clay Cameron as a zone selection pretty straightforward and might otherwise have been a mid-late draft option as a key defender who can play some forward.

Tim Sumner is an interesting one. Has very impressive pace and it's pretty clear Gold Coast want to create an athletic advantage over all rivals. Has some hardness and isn't that soft outside type so he does intrigue. One of those guys where late draft Gold Coast are just taking a chance on him and hoping for the best but hard to see who he goes past in a team littered with some really outstanding outside types and might have been better as a rookie selection.

The key was always Lonergan and I think he a better selection than the rumoured Aidan Corr and Josh Simpson who were heavily linked to Gold Coast.

Osborne has some real pace and can generate some real drive from the back half with that explosive pace he has. Previously played amateurs and this year went onto the Frankston VFL list and made the transition no problems and didn't struggle at all with the change of pace which is a great sign.

Worth a shot for Gold Coast and with Toy leaving is a very nice fit into that back half. Low risk but can play a role right away and to a solid standard as one of the better mature agers from this years group.

Thanks for your work KM.... any chance you'll be doing a mock rookie draft?

On page one I posted some psd+rookie draft related content since the draft.

But I don't have any plans to do a full rookie mock draft. Don't have the time at the moment with work committments but happy to answer questions about any of the players I listed on page one or whatever other questions people may have.

Hey knight, was wondering who you think the top few mature aged players running around the state leagues are, that are yet to be drafted? and would jaryd cachia happen to be anywhere near that group?

Cachia has shown something as that strong inside midfielder. Very stiff to get delisted by Carlton so soon and had a strong season in the SANFL this year playing some really impressive football. Could be a rookie option, not sure he becomes anything incredible at the next level but I believe he could play a role for a team and if a spot in a midfield was open to him he has the ability to take it.

Leigh Osborne as a back flanker can play. Kyle Martin through the midfield also really excellent and could also rotate onto a forward flakn. Justin Hardy as a versatile tall who can play forward/back/ruck is the better tall left. Ben Duscher is probably that really top end, elite state league midfielder but has been unlucky with injury this year. Ben Ross had an excellent season in the VFL and was very stiff to get delisted by North Melbourne at the end of 2011, has some class. Sam Dwyer also an excellent immediate midfielder who could come in and play a role for a team or provide strong depth both through the midfield and up forward but struggled with injury this year. Sean Tighe is another handy versatile tall with the range to play ruck/forward/back.

Joel Tippett has his fans as a key defender having had a strong season in the SANFL. Jack Hannath as a mature ruckman is another with his fans.

Probably plenty I've missed but these are some of the better options.

there is a bit of confusion on the lions board do you know whether richard newell a former nsw scholarship player upgraded to rookie last year would he count as a main rookie, now hat only 4 are allowed list is tight or would he count as the 3 outside development rookies? thanks

also do you think Lions will try for another forward already gained two in the draft maybe a back like Rodda or someone would be a better option, with the midfielders do you see us taking Pogniriac just wondering why you think he was overlooked was he just a man playing a game with teenagers and would struggle in the step up? thanks

He's now out training with us (Port)

Scholarship players are category B.

Thanks Knight, this was my first draft as a fan and your mock was priceless. Based on your descriptions, I wasn't keen on Josh Simpson and felt we needed a Lonergan, since there was no way Ollie Wines would slide to us. Had he been a year older, do you think Jack Martin would've been a top 10 pick?