Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

Still updating tonight knighter?

Will save an update for next Sunday night and get a new thread happening then.

Too much chopping and changing with the draft order to come next week with all the trades and have had other work to complete this weekend that has cut my profile writing time down.

Speaking of Brisbane academy guys, how do you feel about Nick Jackson? He starred in the GF curtain raiser but probably didn't blow the combine away. Has he done enough to get selected?

Jackson is a rookie prospect if drafted and hasn't received much fanfare but I like his game. I like his footskills. Just uses it so well every time he has it. Has improved strongly since this time last year. I've still got him in consideration for a place in my top 50 prospects. I hope he - Matthew Hammelmann, Logan Austin, Dougal Howard and Nicholas Coughlan all get drafted. There just feels like with those boys that there is some real scope to improve.

 

[WEEVZ]

Knightmare do you think there's a chance the Bombers will take Nakia Cockatoo in the draft? The more write-ups I read about him, the more I'd like us to pick him up. Believe we could do worse than start him on a HFF or on the bench from day dot.

 

[TerryWallet]

Knightmare do you think there's a chance the Bombers will take Nakia Cockatoo in the draft? The more write-ups I read about him, the more I'd like us to pick him up. Believe we could do worse than start him on a HFF or on the bench from day dot.

Mail i've heard is NM keen at Pick 16.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare do you think there's a chance the Bombers will take Nakia Cockatoo in the draft? The more write-ups I read about him, the more I'd like us to pick him up. Believe we could do worse than start him on a HFF or on the bench from day dot.

Cockatoo may not be available at Essendon's selection.

He impressed North Melbourne after training with them preseason through the AIS AFL Academy. For all we know they take him first round.

Geelong also I get the sense may consider him depending on if he is considered best available at their selection.

 

[CatRiot]

KM, Any info or views on Nick Dixon at Falcons please. Believe he was avg close to 29 touches a game. Made a cameo game for Vic Country also and did well. Interested to know your thoughts.
Cheers

 

[Dunny82]

Always speculative a year out.

But my prediction at this stage is next year will be a stronger draft overall. Certainly next year is looking like a stronger, deeper year for midfielders with (Mills/Parish/Keays/O'Kearney/Mathieson/Dunkley among others looking terrific). For key position players there doesn't look to be that same depth or top, top end quality of the top key position players (Schache and Weiderman are the top 2 and look like the first round talls at this point. I'm sure a few others will elevate their games between now and draft day next year).

Clubs when they have a mix of needs all have varied approaches. Generally early draft clubs go best available and fill needs with the later picks but there are variations on that. Some will look needs based and fit with themes through the draft to fill those needs. Others will go out and out best available at every selection. Otherwise will balance best available and needs.

Regarding building with talls first when you have needs all over the field. Generally if clubs can pick good talls they will because they are few and far between with mostly only those selected first round or even more often top 10 are those best ones and the ones you want. This year is a good year to do it with a top 13/14 selection with the depth of the talls available but more often it doesn't happen because you generally to do it need a high draft pick and a pick in a year where the key position options are good around your selection.

Thanks KM. The 2015 being stronger and better placed for mids looks to be a common opinion and this opinion along with St Kilda being rumoured to be after Petracca and the talls next year not as great as this draft got me thinking about the logic behind going after Petracca instead of a McCartin/Wright. Still, I'm a little surprised, particularly as talls generally take about 5 years to start to hit their straps don't they and mids probably about 3?

As you say each club has their logic and viewpoint around targeting needs/best available/balance of both but to me the length of development required for players seems to indicate talls should be the preference. Or is this view negated with some talls like Thorp, Muston etc not living up to their potential and not making the grade?

 

[Shuperman]

Thank you Knight, this is a great thread you have here!

 

[Knightmare]

KM, Any info or views on Nick Dixon at Falcons please. Believe he was avg close to 29 touches a game. Made a cameo game for Vic Country also and did well. Interested to know your thoughts.
Cheers

High production small inside mid, low flash, poor footskills, not overly quick.

Thanks KM. The 2015 being stronger and better placed for mids looks to be a common opinion and this opinion along with St Kilda being rumoured to be after Petracca and the talls next year not as great as this draft got me thinking about the logic behind going after Petracca instead of a McCartin/Wright. Still, I'm a little surprised, particularly as talls generally take about 5 years to start to hit their straps don't they and mids probably about 3?

As you say each club has their logic and viewpoint around targeting needs/best available/balance of both but to me the length of development required for players seems to indicate talls should be the preference. Or is this view negated with some talls like Thorp, Muston etc not living up to their potential and not making the grade?

Talls can sometimes miss early, particularly some of those undersized ruckmen taken around 10 years ago. Often it's due to injury. Sometimes other reasons - perhaps as forwards they don't play like key forwards and aren't super strong marking presences.

With key forwards particularly one thing to consider. In that AFL other than those picked first round, through father son selections or some other procedure (eg. prelistings - J.Cameron/academy - to come/scholarship - T.Walker) you don't see key forwards after the first round often become anything better than a serviceable option. James Podsiadly is an exception to a degree as a highly productive mature age rookie, Justin Westhoff also and Kurt Tippett, Jake Calisle and Sam Reid in the second round have become terrific but it's those first round key forwards that become the good ones if you go through all the top key forwards in the game.

With key defenders there is more variation with this and same story with ruckmen who historically are best picked as rookies with the success stories coming out of the rookie draft, but for key forwards you really have to look early draft as a position that you're looking most specifically for a superiority of talent and production.


If you're looking for a rough guideline with where to pick various types based on what has worked historically:
early draft: key forwards, inside midfielders and key position players are the ones to pick. Key forwards you need that talent, inside mids rarely miss early draft. And key defenders early draft also tend to go well. With a view towards best available.
late draft/rookie draft: ruckmen, small forwards, outside types/flankers, mature agers (rookie rucks have been the most successful historically, many of the best small forwards also have come late/rookie/PSD, some terrific outside types and flankers come late/rookie draft seemingly every year and can be as good as those picked early draft, then some really good mature agers have also come late/rookie.

 

[Dunny82]

High production small inside mid, low flash, poor footskills, not overly quick.



Talls can sometimes miss early, particularly some of those undersized ruckmen taken around 10 years ago. Often it's due to injury. Sometimes other reasons - perhaps as forwards they don't play like key forwards and aren't super strong marking presences.

With key forwards particularly one thing to consider. In that AFL other than those picked first round, through father son selections or some other procedure (eg. prelistings - J.Cameron/academy - to come/scholarship - T.Walker) you don't see key forwards after the first round often become anything better than a serviceable option. James Podsiadly is an exception to a degree as a highly productive mature age rookie, Justin Westhoff also and Kurt Tippett, Jake Calisle and Sam Reid in the second round have become terrific but it's those first round key forwards that become the good ones if you go through all the top key forwards in the game.

With key defenders there is more variation with this and same story with ruckmen who historically are best picked as rookies with the success stories coming out of the rookie draft, but for key forwards you really have to look early draft as a position that you're looking most specifically for a superiority of talent and production.


If you're looking for a rough guideline with where to pick various types based on what has worked historically:
early draft: key forwards, inside midfielders and key position players are the ones to pick. Key forwards you need that talent, inside mids rarely miss early draft. And key defenders early draft also tend to go well. With a view towards best available.
late draft/rookie draft: ruckmen, small forwards, outside types/flankers, mature agers (rookie rucks have been the most successful historically, many of the best small forwards also have come late/rookie/PSD, some terrific outside types and flankers come late/rookie draft seemingly every year and can be as good as those picked early draft, then some really good mature agers have also come late/rookie.

Thank KM, appreciate the response.

Hadn't thought about looking back at what has worked historically and your rough guide is perfect!

 

[CatRiot]

Hey KM, Thanks for your info earlier.

Neale-Bullen and Bampton averaged 19 possesions in senior SANFL footy (12 and 9 games respectively). That's right up there with Aish last year.

They seem to be good prospects this draft with most phantom drafts having them outside their top 20.

I could see the Cats being interested in them.

Which of these two do you think is better and has more upside and why?

Cheers

 

[Demon 16]

I'm very surprised to see Melbourne even vaguely interested in being involved in this draft to be honest with you and the talk about a Trengove trade is even more startling. I'm expecting a breakout season from Trengove next season and I imagine he is of greater usefulness in Melbourne's list build than whoever goes at pick 10/12.

Murmurings are being heard that we preparing for a big trade deal - Ill be very surprised if we take all 3 picks to the draft.

Not many on the Melbourne board think that we'd trade Trengove for 12 unless we had a bigger plan in mind.

 

[Blackas87]

Knightmare, What's with the big dropping of Brayden Maynard's selection, I'm pretty sure you had him in the top 20 earlier in the year but now have him at 48

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, Thanks for your info earlier.

Neale-Bullen and Bampton averaged 19 possesions in senior SANFL footy (12 and 9 games respectively). That's right up there with Aish last year.

They seem to be good prospects this draft with most phantom drafts having them outside their top 20.

I could see the Cats being interested in them.

Which of these two do you think is better and has more upside and why?

Cheers

Bampton for me is the better footballer. More immediate player and I expect becomes the better pro also. Just so hard at the footy, and has such a strong inside game.

Neal-Bullen for me can struggle under pressure, particularly with his work by foot.

Knightmare, What's with the big dropping of Brayden Maynard's selection, I'm pretty sure you had him in the top 20 earlier in the year but now have him at 48

Just favouring others. Next update I'll have him more around 40. Strong contested ball winner. Just would like to see him play more midfield. Footskills while at times can be damaging also at other times be hit and miss. Not a super athlete. Just a few who project as more certain pros.

 

[DirtyDirk]

Here are some results from yesterdays WA state combine from an article in The West today:
Shane Yarran (25 year old from Subiaco FC) 2.82 seconds in the 20m sprint which was second fastest time this year.
Brad Walsh (18 year old from Peel) 2.97 seconds in 20m sprint, 7.88 seconds in the agility (nation combine best was around 8.06) and third in beep test.
Ryan Lim (18 year old from Claremont) was 0.01 second from the all time agility record held by Stephen Hill with 7.78 seconds plus came second in beep test with 14.7. The article also mentioned Lim met with Essendon yesterday.
Jared Hardisty (18 year old from Claremont) won the beep test with 15.4.
Cameron Loersch (South Fremantle) won the standing vertical with 72cm and Adam Creeper (Subiaco) won the running vertical with 86cm.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Agility tests aren't to be compared against others from the National Combine. That track was exceptionally slow.

 

[CatRiot]

Hey KM,
Who do you think is the best HBF player and BP player this draft?

Eg must be able to play on medium and smalls forwards, play both shutdown and offensive.

Cheers

 

[Prochard123]

Hey, km,
What are the possibilities that one of wright mcartin petrecca and Brayshaw will slide to us? Or do you think they will definately go top 4? If they do, who do you think we will take at 5, and what type of players would we be looking at?

 

[eaglespremiers]

Hey, km,
What are the possibilities that one of wright mcartin petrecca and Brayshaw will slide to us? Or do you think they will definately go top 4? If they do, who do you think we will take at 5, and what type of players would we be looking at?

He answered this about two pages ago.
He said either Weller or Pickett.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,
Who do you think is the best HBF player and BP player this draft?

Eg must be able to play on medium and smalls forwards, play both shutdown and offensive.

Cheers

Daniel Howe, Daniel McKenzie, Brayden Maynard (though I like him more as a mid) are the three. Teia Miles and Jackson Nelson are some others who can play back and also through the midfield.

For that role Daniel McKenzie will be a popular choice as an very athlete type who can really kick but then also has the ability to beat various types. Late second round is about what you're looking at with him.

If you want a cheap rookie solution a David Mirra as a mature ager would be a suitable choice.

Hey, km,
What are the possibilities that one of wright mcartin petrecca and Brayshaw will slide to us? Or do you think they will definately go top 4? If they do, who do you think we will take at 5, and what type of players would we be looking at?

Wright is a chance to be available at 5, GWS may instead take Lever. Petracca/Brayshaw and almost certainly McCartin also will not be available at 5.

Wright/Lever/Pickett/Weller/Duggan/Durdin/Laverde are among those I imagine Collingwood will look at without knowing who their preference of that group is.

 

[MooreTreloar]

HI KM,

Do you think Cockatoo wil slip to Collingwood's 2nd round pick & if so should we take him?

Also, do you think we should draft Tom Langdon's brother?

 

[Davo-27]

HI KM,

Do you think Cockatoo wil slip to Collingwood's 2nd round pick & if so should we take him?

Also, do you think we should draft Tom Langdon's brother?

i like the look of the younger Langdon myself, he looks like he's decent from what i've seen

 

[MooreTreloar]

i like the look of the younger Langdon myself, he looks like he's decent from what i've seen

Haven't seen a lot of him but I read he's a small forward, I'd like us to take him with a 3rd rounder.

 

[Punchy Demons]

HI KM,

Do you think Cockatoo wil slip to Collingwood's 2nd round pick & if so should we take him?

Also, do you think we should draft Tom Langdon's brother?

It seems unlikely. Some clubs are being linked with him with their 1st pick, so I'd imagine he's long gone before #30 or so.

 

[MooreTreloar]

It seems unlikely. Some clubs are being linked with him with their 1st pick, so I'd imagine he's long gone before #30 or so.

Thanks, yeah I had seen that, I was hoping there'd be a chance he'd slip, but I doubt it.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I reckon on every page of this thread since the Grand Final curtain raiser there has been someone asking KM whether he thinks Cockatoo will fall to their club and whether he thinks he will be a good pickup.