Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

I can almost promise you that the Suns will take Lachie if he's still there at their first pick KM.

It's possible Gold Coast go with Weller. The Suns have done well with local talent before so it's possible the same happens again.

We'll see how he goes when the Div 2 boys get started.

Just depends on who Gold Coast evaluate as being best available and what the perceived list needs are.

 

[Wizard17]

#50 North Melbourne - Dillon Viojo-Rainbow (VIC – Def)
Height: 185cm, Weight: 80kg, DOB: 08/02/1996
Recruited from: Western Jets
Style:
Player comparison:
Range: 40-rookie
Profile: Viojo-Rainbow is a backman who can also at times push up onto a wing. Down back he reads the ball well and is a very good intercept mark. He provides good run and carry down back and has some linebreaking ability as well and is a good user of the footy by foot. He’s a capable stopper down back and can beat his man so there is the potential for him to be an effective role player down back and a component of a successful back half.

I'd be disappointed if the Dogs passed up on Rainbow we lack severely in the medium defender category let alone someone who can kick as elitely or set up play. We have nobody to replace Murphy and are still looking to fill the hole left by a certain halfback too and he has been retired for years and we are trying to turn Higgins who has no real accountability into a defender when he should be on a wing or at half forward. This is the up there in the top three things we lack in our side along with a KPF and quick midfielders.

 

[Dav1d]

I'd be disappointed if the Dogs passed up on Rainbow we lack severely in the medium defender category let alone someone who can kick as elitely or set up play. We have nobody to replace Murphy and are still looking to fill the hole left by a certain halfback too and he has been retired for years and we are trying to turn Higgins who has no real accountability into a defender when he should be on a wing or at half forward. This is the up there in the top three things we lack in our side along with a KPF and quick midfielders.

think that is why he picked Laverde in the second, but think we could do with a couple though
not really sure how creative of a player Viojo-Rainbow is, but I know Laverde can do some dangerous things with the ball

 

[teooooooman]

Hey knightmare, just wondering if swans didn't have first dips on heeney, were do you think he would go in the draft? Thanks

 

[Wizard17]

think that is why he picked Laverde in the second, but think we could do with a couple though
not really sure how creative of a player Viojo-Rainbow is, but I know Laverde can do some dangerous things with the ball

How is he defensively? I know that he is as good attacking player as there is but I want a half back that can defend like there's no tomorrow and shutdown those smalls that always kick bags against us. His skill set though is one that I love though as he has that side to his game but can also hurt you going the other way.

 

[Zach Package]

reasons for major risers and fallers Knightmare ?

is it just a case of you firming opinions with more exposed form? or are there kids out there that you genuinely thought could/couldn't do certain things that have surprised you with their capabilities or lack thereof?

 

[The Sports Fan]

Knightmare - I have to ask - are you a spotter aligned to a specific club? If no, you should be!

 

[Demon 16]

reasons for major risers and fallers Knightmare ?

is it just a case of you firming opinions with more exposed form? or are there kids out there that you genuinely thought could/couldn't do certain things that have surprised you with their capabilities or lack thereof?

Particularly interested in Duggan KM.

Demons would love a good half back flanker and should have 1 if not 2 picks around 3-5.

Where have you seen him play and what has he shown?

 

[Chris25]

Duggan is much more than a back flanker, think he is getting pigeon holed a bit with some of the player comparisons I've seen.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Agree, it's just because he's playing a flanker role in the champs a bit - Metro seem to have a habit of doing this?

Guys like Vlaustin, Salem, etc.

 

[Knightmare]

I'd be disappointed if the Dogs passed up on Rainbow we lack severely in the medium defender category let alone someone who can kick as elitely or set up play. We have nobody to replace Murphy and are still looking to fill the hole left by a certain halfback too and he has been retired for years and we are trying to turn Higgins who has no real accountability into a defender when he should be on a wing or at half forward. This is the up there in the top three things we lack in our side along with a KPF and quick midfielders.

Medium defenders are easy to find and can probably be had as rookies. An easy example is David Mirra who has been pretty good for a few years now in the VFL. He's be capable of playing the role you're suggesting as a capable stopper who also can rebound and use it well.

Rainbow isn't an elite kick. He hits his targets reasonably well but an elite kick would be if looking late draft Garrett McDonagh.

Hey knightmare, just wondering if swans didn't have first dips on heeney, were do you think he would go in the draft? Thanks

Top 5. Arguably the best mid in the draft and if not then he'd be number two. Heeney will be the bargain of the draft so Sydney are instant winners taking him late first round.

How is he defensively? I know that he is as good attacking player as there is but I want a half back that can defend like there's no tomorrow and shutdown those smalls that always kick bags against us. His skill set though is one that I love though as he has that side to his game but can also hurt you going the other way.

The defensive side isn't what you notice about Laverde. But he's a capable stopper if you need him to with the right height and physical and athletic attributes but you have him in the side for his rebounding with his intercept marking, ball use and linebreaking ability. The defensive side is something he'll continue to improve on in an AFL environment I imagine.

reasons for major risers and fallers Knightmare ?

is it just a case of you firming opinions with more exposed form? or are there kids out there that you genuinely thought could/couldn't do certain things that have surprised you with their capabilities or lack thereof?

Mostly performance determines who rises and who falls.

Overall most are risers on my list and those falling are only falling incrementally as others are breaking out.

Johansen is the most obvious example of moving up through performance as the player of the u18 champs so far having probably in each of his three games being the clear standout performer.

Knightmare - I have to ask - are you a spotter aligned to a specific club? If no, you should be!

I am not aligned with any AFL clubs. Always open to offers though!

Particularly interested in Duggan KM.

Demons would love a good half back flanker and should have 1 if not 2 picks around 3-5.

Where have you seen him play and what has he shown?

On Duggan in the games I've seen has played in some games off a back flank, other games on the ball. He's just a guy who adds class with his precision footskills and penetration and ability to spot those best targets up the field. He's not a soft outside player and can win his own ball at times and can put his head over the ball so he could potentially play up the field at AFL level but at this stage I favour him off a back flank with his footskills and intercept marking ability.

Picks 3-5 is the top end to Duggan's potential draft range but he's a plausible addition for Melbourne and certainly adds something different so he's a list fit but there are a few others I would slightly prefer first with back flankers often available later in the draft.

 

[Knightmare]

Duggan is much more than a back flanker, think he is getting pigeon holed a bit with some of the player comparisons I've seen.

Who has pigeon holes Duggan as a back flanker only?

It's probably where he starts if he debuts at AFL level in his first season but he's got the talent to play wherever he wants - midfield, back or forward if you needed him there.

 

[Dawgs89]

Km what's your reasoning for dogs taking Goddard over someone like Keitel?? Just on the information presented, it feels like we are getting q jack watts/lachie Hansen type when we could be going for a text walker type? I know which is prefer at the dogs!

 

[Chris25]

The Keitel write ups/hype remind me of Jackson Paine from a few years ago. Similar size, both were rated as being strong marks and good on the ground too. And both were said to be able to pinch hit in the midfield too. Now one is at his second club...

 

[Knightmare]

Km what's your reasoning for dogs taking Goddard over someone like Keitel?? Just on the information presented, it feels like we are getting q jack watts/lachie Hansen type when we could be going for a text walker type? I know which is prefer at the dogs!

That is underrating Goddard.

Goddard is much harder and more physical than Watts/Hansen. He'll be good. In the Dogs situation he would be a good compliment to Jones.

Keitel from me is more a speculative pick but I like his talent. He's not considered by many a top 10 pick so he's an unlikely selection for the Dogs I would have thought. He's generally other than my rating of Keitel considered more a late first round selection.

 

[Knightmare]

The Keitel write ups/hype remind me of Jackson Paine from a few years ago. Similar size, both were rated as being strong marks and good on the ground too. And both were said to be able to pinch hit in the midfield too. Now one is at his second club...

Paine isn't as good at ground level, isn't as agile and is shorter as an undersized key forward who despite what he measures in as is only in reality a 191/192cm marking only key forward which at that height just doesn't get it done.

 

[Chris25]

Paine isn't as good at ground level, isn't as agile and is shorter as an undersized key forward who despite what he measures in as is only in reality a 191/192cm marking only key forward which at that height just doesn't get it done.

But pre-draft, the write ups sounded pretty similar.

 

[Knightmare]

But pre-draft, the write ups sounded pretty similar.

Not really. No. I don't remember too many people accusing Paine of having the ground level ability even though he had at times played up the field.

I know I had him pegged as more a possible no.2 option up forward if he develops and more a marking forward.

Paine went lower than expected, sure but he was only really considered a first round prospect by some at the time because other than Patton there wasn't another high end key forward and that was demonstrated by his eventual draft position.

Keitel unlike Paine looks like a first rounder and has that better rounded game. The talent disparity in watching both play is clear.

 

[Skippos]

That is underrating Goddard.

Goddard is much harder and more physical than Watts/Hansen. He'll be good. In the Dogs situation he would be a good compliment to Jones.

Just looking at it, Goddard's averaging 7.7 touches, 3 clangers and a goal a game these champs. Is that just bad form/the situation isn't right for him? I'm finding it a little hard (despite the small sample) to keep the faith so was wondering how his champs have effected your view of him if they have/haven't...why?

 

[Demon 16]

Who has pigeon holes Duggan as a back flanker only?

It's probably where he starts if he debuts at AFL level in his first season but he's got the talent to play wherever he wants - midfield, back or forward if you needed him there.

Thanks KM.

Presuming we have pick 4 or 5 (or 6?), I can see us pulling a little surprise for a guy who can penetrate from half back, and also play through the midfield.

AndyMac on posted on the Dees board that we are apparently looking very carefully at him.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Just looking at it, Goddard's averaging 7.7 touches, 3 clangers and a goal a game these champs. Is that just bad form/the situation isn't right for him? I'm finding it a little hard (despite the small sample) to keep the faith so was wondering how his champs have effected your view of him if they have/haven't...why?

Sorry to butt in...

I think he's out of form and despite what KM says I think he lacks intensity - it's all well and good to say he's more physical then Hansen/Watts when you're comparing their physicality at the top level to Goddard's against boys.

Watching him last year as an underager I thought he lacked high intensity and any real physicality and I'm not sure it's changed this year, he has great potential if developed well I think.

Happy to defer to KM who sees a lot more, but just my perspective.

 

[Chris25]

Keitel unlike Paine looks like a first rounder and has that better rounded game. The talent disparity in watching both play is clear.

Can't help but see the similarities though...

Jackson Paine (VIC – KPF/Mid)
Height: 193cm, Weight: 87kg, DOB: 21/06/1993
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Style: Matthew Pavlich
Player comparison:
Range: 10-late
Profile: Really like Paine as a forward. Particularly strong mark on the lead but also marks strongly overhead. Marks at the highest point which is what you look for in all good forwards. Really hard working type who seems to enjoy the contest. Crashes packs. Good work rate. Gives the 2nd and 3rd efforst. Defensively very good and chases and tackles very willingly. Can push into the midfield and play really well in there as well as up forward. Good field kick for someone his size.

So, regardless of what he measures in at now he was being talked of as the exact same size as Keitel pre-draft. Although having said that, Keitel has been listed primarily at 191-192cm before this past month. And during the Championships, his good form saw Paine jump into top 15 talk on BigFooty. Same thing is happening with Keitel now (I've moved him up from around 25, closer to 15 too). And if you compare the two...

Tyler Keitel (WA – KPF/KPD)
Height: 194cm, Weight: 86kg, DOB: 07/02/1996
Recruited from: East Perth
Style: Jarryd Roughead/Taylor Walker
Player comparison:
Range: 5-25
Profile: Keitel is a talented key position player who can play both forward and back well but in my mind is a key forward as he has clear key forward talent. He’s got ability both overhead but moves well for someone of his type with his agility and at ground level making him a real threat up forward. He has unusually clean hands for someone his height and has a natural dexterity with unusually clean hands and a co-ordination you don’t see in many key position players with his ground level stuff. But then he can also play like a true big man, take a contested mark, take a mark on the lead or in the air and hit the scoreboard in bunches so he’s a complete and natural key forward and has that little bit of arrogance to him which as a forward you’re allowed to have when you can play like Keitel can. Call me crazy but while Keitel hasn’t played there, I see him a bit like Jarryd Roughead as someone because he has the ability at ground level and a good skillset, he’s someone I could see even pinchhitting through the midfield and providing some extra grunt on the ball at times with his skillset suggesting it could be within his capabilities.

It's pretty similar. And I should add, this isn't having a go at you - I could have used profiles written by anyone. It was more just an interesting observation of two players following similar paths. It's hard to look past what Paine has (or hasn't) done at AFL level, but there is a little pre-draft Paine in Tyler Keitel.

 

[Knightmare]

Just looking at it, Goddard's averaging 7.7 touches, 3 clangers and a goal a game these champs. Is that just bad form/the situation isn't right for him? I'm finding it a little hard (despite the small sample) to keep the faith so was wondering how his champs have effected your view of him if they have/haven't...why?

Sorry to butt in...

I think he's out of form and despite what KM says I think he lacks intensity - it's all well and good to say he's more physical then Hansen/Watts when you're comparing their physicality at the top level to Goddard's against boys.

Watching him last year as an underager I thought he lacked high intensity and any real physicality and I'm not sure it's changed this year, he has great potential if developed well I think.

Happy to defer to KM who sees a lot more, but just my perspective.

It's an interesting discussion and relatively speaking I view Goddard as a slightly lower level talent than the media generally do. The media consider Goddard as being worth pick 2-5, I see him as more a guy I'd personally select around pick 8, perhaps a fraction earlier if needing a key position player (forward or back for that matter, he can do either well).

Goddard v Metro last round was well held by Darcy Moore who while he had no great influence himself played a really good accountable game and as a guy who is even slightly taller and a pretty good matchup from a strength and athleticism standpoint (probably the only other KPP who is close).

Goddard on the whole is a consistent player and it has been surprising to see his poor performances these past couple of weeks. And generally in most games he will kick 2-3 goals (from around 4 attempts most games) and take 5-6 marks, sometimes more on a good day. It was just a rare poor game where he lost his head and if that's the sample game you watched then I would expect a very negative opinion towards his game.

His past two are real outlier games and not at all reflective of who Goddard is. He'll rebound over coming weeks and his numbers will normalise I can only imagine having performed much better than he is now this time last year.

On the way Goddard attacks the contest he does really attack the ball hard and he doesn't have that outside feel of a Watts. He can win his own ball and really attacks it when he goes to take the grab as Sam Day has as a similar athlete for those who watch Gold Coast. He also actually plays on the most part a pretty physical style of game.

My problem with Goddard and why I don't consider him a no.1 option is he doesn't have that one dominant go to move that makes you think "he's going off for 8 goals today." He can give you 3-4 but he's while a strong mark not Travis Cloke and he's not the turn you around onto my way into goal type Cameron is or the ground level freak that Franklin is. But he's a heck of an athlete with a really strong frame and key position talent which will with a few years in the system allow him to become a very good key forward.

 

[Knightmare]

Can't help but see the similarities though...



So, regardless of what he measures in at now he was being talked of as the exact same size as Keitel pre-draft. Although having said that, Keitel has been listed primarily at 191-192cm before this past month. And during the Championships, his good form saw Paine jump into top 15 talk on BigFooty. Same thing is happening with Keitel now (I've moved him up from around 25, closer to 15 too). And if you compare the two...



It's pretty similar. And I should add, this isn't having a go at you - I could have used profiles written by anyone. It was more just an interesting observation of two players following similar paths. It's hard to look past what Paine has (or hasn't) done at AFL level, but there is a little pre-draft Paine in Tyler Keitel.

With Paine the incorrect measurements (193/194cm) really worked in his favour when talking about the views of those on bigfooty.

If he was correctly listed at 191cm/192cm as a marking forward then he would only have been spoken about as a late 2nd/3rd round selection as he lacks that ground level ability and has a horrible turning circle to be an effective key forward at that height but if you said "194cm marking key forward" you'd be thinking "ok, this guy might grow another cm or two and with the strength of his marking and body work and broad shoulders then perhaps he could be effective at the position."

Keitel just doesn't have any of those problems from what I've observed as a much more mobile better ground level guy who has the ability overhead. Even if he was 191cm he could be an effective key forward because as Taylor Walker and Jarryd Roughead are, Keitel also has from the small sample size of games I've seen "has key forward talent" which is the difference v Paine. I'm assuming Keitel's measurements at 194cm are correct and if they are then assuming he performs and continues to get played forward and improves he looks to me like a top 10 quality pick and a real shot to be a high level key forward at AFL level - but being as far out from the draft as it is I do reserve judgement to change my mind as I see more of his games.

 

[Chris25]

Of course Keitel is the better prospect, he hasn't already struggled at the top level. And new is always better.

It's just interesting, that's all.