Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Lana]

KM saints may look to get into the first round with another 2 picks by off loading players and upgrading a pick exactly like last year.

Say we had picks 16 and 19 to come after taking wright or McCartin at pick #2 - who do you think saints would take and do you think they are comparable on talent to say Dunstan and Acres? Ie. Is the first round of the draft deeper than last year or weaker?

Thanks!

Honest question, who is left to off load for this first round pick?

 

[blueiris]

Honest question, who is left to off load for this first round pick?

Jack Stevens

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Honest question, who is left to off load for this first round pick?

A pick upgrade involving a club in the top 4 with a pick around the 15-18 mark could be on the cards. St Kilda will likely have a second round pick around 22 and could bundle that with a player to get one of the top 4's first rounders. Joey's name has been mentioned as has Armo's. Also, Essendon with their first pick and GWS with their end of first round compo pick could be another avenue.

 

[Skippos]

Jack Stevens

If they lose Jack Steven I don't think a mid teens pick would cut it, I'd certainly expect a top 3 pick, top 5 at absolute worst for him.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

If they lose Jack Steven I don't think a mid teens pick would cut it, I'd certainly expect a top 3 pick, top 5 at absolute worst for him.

No team would do that, I don't think any team would give a top 5 pick for Nathan Jones either - around pick 10 would be what they could expect.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

No team would do that, I don't think any team would give a top 5 pick for Nathan Jones either - around pick 10 would be what they could expect.

Surely with all the talent on the GWS and GC list, more low drafts picks almost becomes redundant and adding someone of the quality of Jones or Steven would appeal? I'd also imagine a team that believes its in premiership contention would love to get hold of either to help bridge the gap with the top teams? Getting that early draft pick is the problem.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Surely with all the talent on the GWS and GC list, more low drafts picks almost becomes redundant and adding someone of the quality of Jones or Steven would appeal? I'd also imagine a team that believes its in premiership contention would love to get hold of either to help bridge the gap with the top teams? Getting that early draft pick is the problem.

Steven isn't a top 10 mid in the league, would probably crack the top 20 but no guarantee, no way you get a top 5 pick for him.

 

[Skippos]

No team would do that, I don't think any team would give a top 5 pick for Nathan Jones either - around pick 10 would be what they could expect.

If that's the case then picks are seeeeeriously overvalued. I think it'd be generous to say that there's a 25% chance the player taken with pick 3-5 ends up better than Jack Steven, so what do you prefer... a 25% chance at >elite or a 75% chance at losing on what you paid?

I'd happily give pick 1 for Jack Steven. I'm probably an outlier there but much prefer the proven 'great' to the potential superstar. Too much risk, you've gotta prefer the surefire hit.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

If that's the case then picks are seeeeeriously overvalued. I think it'd be generous to say that there's a 25% chance the player taken with pick 3-5 ends up better than Jack Steven, so what do you prefer... a 25% chance at >elite or a 75% chance at losing on what you paid?

I'd happily give pick 1 for Jack Steven. I'm probably an outlier there but much prefer the proven 'great' to the potential superstar. Too much risk, you've gotta prefer the surefire hit.

Is Jack Steven great though? As i said can think of probably 20 mid's i'd take before him. That's before factoring in rookie wages compared to his current wage, and length of service (+6 years extra from a rookie).

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

I'm not saying I disagree with you, I'm just saying no club would ever do it.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Its the same argument that occurred last year when Melbourne were rumoured to offer the Crows pick 2 for Rory Sloane. You take the known quantity in Sloane everyday of the week over an 18 year old who could be Judd but could also be Tambling. Draft picks do tend to be overrated.

 

[blueiris]

Its the same argument that occurred last year when Melbourne were rumoured to offer the Crows pick 2 for Rory Sloane. You take the known quantity in Sloane everyday of the week over an 18 year old who could be Judd but could also be Tambling. Draft picks do tend to be overrated.

I thought they offered pick 2 to Brisbane for Rockliff

 

[dlanod]

I thought they offered pick 2 to Brisbane for Rockliff

They did, but it wouldn't surprise me if they farmed it around until they found a buyer (GWS).

 

[Knightmare]

However, i'm a bit worried about Goddard and the reports about his intensity. Is there any warrant to that?

Intensity not a problem for Goddard and it's not really a concern. He's plays a hard at it brand of footy. He's had a couple of below average games these past couple of weeks and can at times have his quiet periods in games but that's the case for most key forwards at this stage in their development.

Expect Goddard to play better over coming weeks.

Who do you think should be adelaide's main target? If pickett slides to us then I think we should take him due to a lack of genuinely quick wingers but we are also in need of a backup ruckman and a top class key position defender to partner talia

I wouldn't say anyone needs to be the main target given Adelaide aren't picking inside the top 5 so some flexibility in options will be required.

Duggan, Pickett, Lever and Ellis are some guys who Adelaide I imagine would be looking at first round.

KM saints may look to get into the first round with another 2 picks by off loading players and upgrading a pick exactly like last year.

Say we had picks 16 and 19 to come after taking wright or McCartin at pick #2 - who do you think saints would take and do you think they are comparable on talent to say Dunstan and Acres? Ie. Is the first round of the draft deeper than last year or weaker?

Thanks!

Saints have a poor draft history though last year was a real reversal of that with some really nice picks in the first round so lets hope for St Kilda's sake that's a sign of things to come.

I feel the Saints need to stick by the veterans and keep that veteran talent around the club to help the youth develop - you don't want a slow build situation like Gold Coast/GWS but without that same level talent. You're most likely going around in circles as so many rebuilding clubs continue to go through with years of the same.

Hard to see anyone other than some of the better young players on that list attracting a first round pick in a pretty good draft but for second round picks some of those guys may be moveable.

The best I can see the Saints doing is Armitage to Brisbane for their second round pick.

If the Saints want multiple first round picks it might take moving down the draft order for that to happen which I wouldn't recommend when a quality key position player can be had with whichever pick the Saints land.

If that's the case then picks are seeeeeriously overvalued. I think it'd be generous to say that there's a 25% chance the player taken with pick 3-5 ends up better than Jack Steven, so what do you prefer... a 25% chance at >elite or a 75% chance at losing on what you paid?

I'd happily give pick 1 for Jack Steven. I'm probably an outlier there but much prefer the proven 'great' to the potential superstar. Too much risk, you've gotta prefer the surefire hit.

Picks are overvalued. They can be and almost always are sold to fans as that new hope as an opportunity to a club to reverse their fortunes as Carlton, Melbourne and Richmond have been trying to sell us over the years with all their early draft selections. It gives fans optimism and raises moral.

But in essence if you're a losing team it's of little use gaining those early draft picks as you've rarely got the right environment to development them to maximise that talent to make them into the franchise savers they're hoped to become.

Jack Steven is a clear top 30 midfielder and someone who could be argued as being a top 20, maybe top 15 midfielder in the game if he recaptures his dominant 2013 form.

When you go through those historically taken in that pick 3-5 range you'll find Steven's play stacks up favourably to more than half of those guys so he's worth probably pick two most years, possibly pick one to a team needing midfield help in a draft where there isn't a clear number one pick and the same could be said about another 15-20 midfielders in the game today because you know what you've got and that known quantity is absolutely excellent.

This year if I was GWS and I had pick one overall and Jack Steven was on the trade table would I take him? I'd say no deal. That Peter Wright guy is too talented to pass up and projects as a much higher level talent if he stays healthy and the team who draft him develop him well. If I was Melbourne at pick 4 and had the shot at Steven I'd be saying deal because they need that more immediate help and guys who can help them over the hump now and into relevance as more high end draft picks as history has shown is no way to build a list when you don't have the veteran leadership to help these guys develop as is the case in Melbourne's situation as a young team.

 

[blueiris]

Can't see Brisbane trading for Armitage too slow and not in the right age bracket for a team on the rebuild he's also very injury prone.

 

[HereIam86]

Can't see Brisbane trading for Armitage too slow and not in the right age bracket for a team on the rebuild he's also very injury prone.

They did try to get him last year Rob Kerr said the Lions offer the Saints Billy Longer for Armitage but the Saints said no to the trade

 

[blueiris]

They did try to get him last year Rob Kerr said the Lions offer the Saints Billy Longer for Armitage but the Saints said no to the trade

Kerr is no longer at the club mate can't see it happening

 

[dlanod]

Kerr is no longer at the club mate can't see it happening

I can't see it happening because the Saints won't let go of him, but I doubt Kerr went off without the sign-off of the rest of the football department... who are still there. His departure isn't too relevant.

 

[Periphery]

Can't see Brisbane trading for Armitage too slow and not in the right age bracket for a team on the rebuild he's also very injury prone.

No he isn't.

The last 3 years he has only missed 3 games (none due to soft tissue injuries) and he has only missed games this year due to a deep cut getting infected and forcing him to stay in hospital for a week and a bit.

 

[PostPaolo]

Hey Knigthmare was at the Country v. Metro game and just wondering about a few prospects. I thought Capiron, Lonie and Cordy were very good just wondering where you rate these three blokes from Country?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knigthmare was at the Country v. Metro game and just wondering about a few prospects. I thought Capiron, Lonie and Cordy were very good just wondering where you rate these three blokes from Country?

Capiron played by far his best game for the u18 champs and for the year. He's shown signs until now but v Metro he really played his best footy finding it, using it well and being that primary rebounder for Country. Could be looked at mid draft.

Lonie is a lively little forward and he can find the footy. He has his fans and played a good game v Metro but footskills really lack consistency. He's likened to Hayden Ballantyne and the hope would be that he becomes that type of role player but I'm not a huge wrap personally. In saying that mid-late draft he's a strong draft chance.

Cordy is a good role player. Younger brother of Ayce but not ruck height as more a tall defender. Has role playing potential as a Tyson Goldsack style stopper down back who isn't strong or physical enough to play key defence has the athleticism and discipline to stop others. Could be picked up 3rd round as a F/S selection for the Dogs.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Is Jack Steven great though? As i said can think of probably 20 mid's i'd take before him.

He was starting to head in that direction before he got that fracture in his foot late in the preseason.

He had his big breakout, B&F year last year, at 23yo (after a slowish start to his career, due mainly to early persistent groin problems- possibly OP and also being a bit- or a lot- on the lazy/unprofessional side) and was then meant to be having a monster preseason this year (after having really upped his professionalism in a big way of late), but then missed a couple of months with the fracture, which is still reportedly far from fully healed yet, so that would be a big part of the reason why he's only going just OK this year (another part being that he's getting tagged more- although he's handled those well in the past, so I don't think that's much of a factor). Ideally he shouldn't be playing right now, but if he was to get his foot fixed it would probably mean the end of his season, so it looks like he'll just play out the year with it and get by on minimal training between games.

Given that he's only just turned 24 and as such is only coming into his prime years, has only become ultra-professional (and developed a good tank) very recently and didn't play much senior footy at all until he was 21yo, I think he was only just starting to show what he's capable of last year (which finished up with a 47 possie game, in round 23).

Given our list and the fact we've already let Goddard and Dal Santo go, I'd say the only way we'd be open to trading him would be to a club like GWS, in a package trade for a Cameron/Boyd/Patton, if they were put on the table at the end of the year (eg. because GWS hadn't been able to extend their contracts and felt like they were going to walk 12 months later, and preferred to get on the front foot and do a deal immediately, when they still have the most leverage).

It wouldn't be worth trading him for a crack at an unproven "mid" in the draft (unless they looked like another Jaegar O'Meara/Jack Martin) and it doesn't sound like there's a Tom Boyd, or Jeremy Cameron floating around this year, so it would be a big risk to trade him for a crack at any of this year's "talls", too, not to mention what trading him for just a draft pick would do to our team morale.

We are meant to be hell-bent on getting more highish draft picks (or their equivalent) again this year though, so it will be very interesting to see what we do in the trade period.

 

[manny100]

I would consider a deal/package involving Steven for the Dees 1st pick say 4 (as mentioned in by earlier posters). Steven offers something the Dees mids do not have with our mid accumulators - real speed so he would add to the Dees accumulators. He is still young enough to improve and would significantly add to the quality of the midfield. More opportunities for Dawes, Frawley and Hogan.
The Saints could then look at 2 of McCartin, Wright, Durdin or Goddard. Another year of on field pain for the Saints next year with a good draft pick at seasons end and a good mid free agent and things might start to look up in 2016.
A lot of supporters of both sides will poo hoo this but it would be a win/win. Dees could some immediate improvement and the Saints would get a massive (albeit a little risky via unproven draft talls) chance at a rare Reiwold/Kosi- Franklin/Roughy type of rebuild. Its a risk as those early picks might dud out but Pelchin is a risk taker and will not die of old age wondering what might have been!!
Also as per earlier posts I think Pelchin will be talking to GWS. There is some real possibilities there.
On 360 live last night they were lamenting that then Bullies had been unable to secure a KPF primarily because GWS and GC had snatched them in recent years - The Dees also traded for Hogan. So I think you will find they will be talking to GWS as well.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

You'd definitely consider it, but not a straight swap especially as we could probably do with a 10 year key forward who can mark (ie. not Dawesy).

If we could get a player equivalent of a early 2nd/late 1st rounder thrown in (like a Hrovat) I'd be happy with it.

For a straight swap it would have to be a pick outside the top 5 IMO considering the talls available.

 

[manny100]

You'd definitely consider it, but not a straight swap especially as we could probably do with a 10 year key forward who can mark (ie. not Dawesy).

If we could get a player equivalent of a early 2nd/late 1st rounder thrown in (like a Hrovat) I'd be happy with it.

For a straight swap it would have to be a pick outside the top 5 IMO considering the talls available.

I agree, it would have to be a very good deal as apart from Hogan to come in there are no young developing talls at Casey. That is a very big hole to fill in the next couple of drafts. A bad run with injuries to talls and the Dees have nothing coming through.