Leaping Lenny's Lucky Leans

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maybe you fools should try a rugby league forum to see what they offer live score wise

i'm a big fan of after the event checking thus i will advise as follows:

pen v new = -$200
mel v man = $55
NQ v can = $564

thus up $419
 
Lenny29 said:
mel v man = $55
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Lyon #3
 

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Despite the earlier protestations last year around line betting I've come up with a model that back tested showed a profit 4 out of 5 years with one small loss in the other so I'm going to give it a whirl on the footy this year until it all falls apart (let's call that round 5)

Lines for week 1 of round 1 are all pretty spot on so no value. Have looked into the Collingwood/Freo game due to the offer though from Sportingbet and given:

  • Collingwood have won 11 of their last 12 at Etihad
  • Freo's 5 wins at Etihad since Ross Lyon have had teams kick either 11 or 12 goals against them

I'm pretty happy to take the Sportingbet 12 goals and lose refund offer

0.5u Collingwood @ $2.30 (Sportingbet)
 
There's also a 1st half component to my model that I forgot :eek: . It rates Richmond as (on a weighted basis) the best first half side in the comp, and thus the HT line is value:

1u Richmond -5.5 (HT) @ $1.91 (Centrebet)
 
OK so there's no Most Goals "system" this year but will keep an eye on it for any silly value - and Sportsbet come to the party (and, happily, forget to put a limit on bets thus I can get more than $2.10 on it)

0.25u Jeremy Cameron Most Goals Syd v GWS @ $12 (Sportsbet)
 
Lenny29 said:
OK so there's no Most Goals "system" this year but will keep an eye on it for any silly value - and Sportsbet come to the party (and, happily, forget to put a limit on bets thus I can get more than $2.10 on it)

0.25u Jeremy Cameron Most Goals Syd v GWS @ $12 (Sportsbet)
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he is into $4 now, you big time line mover you...
 

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so the Most Goals value picks - that I've retired for 2014 but still run the model for - thus far have been:

Ballantyne @ $10
Cameron @ $12
Vickery @ $8

 
Early bets for week 2 of round 1:

1u North Melbourne -7.5 vs Essendon @ $1.917 - Pinnacle
1u St Kilda +12.5 vs Melbourne @ $1.91 - Flemington Sportsbet

I like both of these a lot (especially the Saints) and expect the lines to drift the opposite way during the week
 
0.5u North Melb d Essendon @ $1.63 - Sportingbet (with refund offer if they score 12 goals but lose)

Probably as close to a free crack as you'll get. North haven't been held to less than 12 goals at Docklands since August 2011. They've played 27 games there since.
 
Lenny29 said:
0.5u North Melb d Essendon @ $1.63 - Sportingbet (with refund offer if they score 12 goals but lose)

Probably as close to a free crack as you'll get. North haven't been held to less than 12 goals at Docklands since August 2011. They've played 27 games there since.
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I liked that one FYI. My only worry is I only have them up to 48 in the quad, not even sure that's enough!
 
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