Analysis Leppa's 2015 season review.

[Hollow Knight]

Thought this might deserve its own thread and might generate some footy discussion to give everyone a break from trade and draft prognostications.

Part 1.


Part 2.


I will edit the thread with each part as they are uploaded.

 

[SizeMatters]

I wonder how much of the main problems we have are attributed to being smaller than opposition? We play well for the first quarter but fall down as the game goes on. I'm not sure running fitness is the total problem as I believe we aren't terrible in that area, but more so the fact that our players being leaner than every other team they just cant keep going in hard at a contest and getting crushed over and over. It shows with the graphs that we win contested footy we score well but repeat efforts after getting constantly hit make it hard to win contested footy for 4 quarters. Leaner bodies feel the impacts more.

Post clearance contested ball winning ability (18th in AFL) such as the one with McStud could also be attributed to having a weak muscle core... McStud easily pushed out of the contest and it happened a lot during the games not only just him but probably 75% of the players.

I'm hoping this new Fitness coach can get our players to just dead lift, bench press and squat the whole preseason...I think we should lay off the hardcore long distance running drills as well but focus more on 100-200m repeat sprints.

 

[brizrider]

Thought this might deserve its own thread and might generate some footy discussion to give everyone a break from trade and draft prognostications.

So who are we going to trade/draft for hardball wins and post stoppage contests? Quick, I'll give you our 2nd round selection and Jackson Paine for him!

Seriously though, interesting video to watch, wish the slides were a little better presented. For one thing I think it perhaps is illustrative of why Jed Adcock is no longer at the club. Defensive 50 general ground ball winning not too bad but hard contested footy and marks inside 50 terrible. That's Adcock all over unfortunately, just not 'inside' enough. It's small percentages as Leppitsch says - 7-8% which even he says is small but that 7-8% is Mt Everest really.
Was interesting about stoppages. We didn't look much good this year really to me but defensively better this area which I had not considered. He said that scoring from the back of stoppages was not a priority this year -why not? Realistic appraisal of abilities and prioritising of improvement areas or something to do with game plan?

 

[chopperduck]

I like how they have the comparisons in areas of us compared to other teams, then use those stats to formulate how far off we are from the top 8 and what we need to do to get there. On paper we look miles away, but id imagine with a young group, being able to show small numbers is all we need to improve to really start winning helps building confidence. Especially that last stat, extra 800 points scored for the year gets us in the top 8, which works out to 1 extra contest won per player each month. If i'm a player, i'm believing that i could do that.

 

[Hollow Knight]

I like how they have the comparisons in areas of us compared to other teams, then use those stats to formulate how far off we are from the top 8 and what we need to do to get there. On paper we look miles away, but id imagine with a young group, being able to show small numbers is all we need to improve to really start winning helps building confidence. Especially that last stat, extra 800 points scored for the year gets us in the top 8, which works out to 1 extra contest won per player each month. If i'm a player, i'm believing that i could do that.

Really fascinating to see what key indicators coaches actually look at too. We are all happy to enthuse over a players disposal count or number of clearances and tackles but the coaching stuff clearly view the game through an entirely different analytical framework.

 

[brizrider]

Really fascinating to see what key indicators coaches actually look at too. We are all happy to enthuse over a players disposal count or number of clearances and tackles but the coaching stuff clearly view the game through an entirely different analytical framework.

Why don't we get more of this type of analysis in the media I wonder? Not all of them are clueless to this stuff, there are plenty of ex-players in the media who would know the details better than they communicate. If you compare to analysis of soccer in Europe for example AFL media is really very poor.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Does anyone else think Leppa is the most Stat driven coach in the AFL?

 

[Hollow Knight]

Does anyone else think Leppa is the most Stat driven coach in the AFL?

Hard to judge from what is effectively a "season review".

Either needs to give us something substantive or it will just be the same old "yeah, would like to win more games next year"... "young group"... "injuries etc" nothingness.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Hard to judge from what is effectively a "season review".

Either needs to give us something substantive or it will just be the same old "yeah, would like to win more games next year"... "young group"... "injuries etc" nothingness.

combined with his post game pressors... he just dumps stats. by the end of the season I couldn't be bothered watching his pressers for this reason

 

[notliondown]

Does anyone else think Leppa is the most Stat driven coach in the AFL?

Compared to who and on what evidence?

He's chosen a format that removes the emotion and passion from the information which is what you'd hope good coaches do. From my understanding both the Scott boys are heavily into the statistical side of the game personally and from what you hear about player reviews after each game it seems it takes about 24 hours to dissect the data for most clubs, so I'd say all coaches rely heavily on this sort of info.

Leppas choice to use it publicly to try and make us, the passion driven supporters, understand that in the cold hard light of day things are simply not as bad as they seem, is probably the only real difference.

To some I guess they will seem like meaningless numbers, others will see very real patterns and a wealth of information. Frankly I'm not sure how else you'd break down a teams performance critically without bias, and not be very reliant on them.

 

[James North]

Aren't these videos supposed to be of Leppa explaining metrics and analysing the season?

I'd hate to see one done by Bomber Thompson. I think I'd be scratching my skin to pieces by the end.

 

[HowYouDoin]

Does anyone else think Leppa is the most Stat driven coach in the AFL?

Sadly enough, it's probably the only thing that he excels in.

 

[matwt73]

I wonder how much of the main problems we have are attributed to being smaller than opposition? We play well for the first quarter but fall down as the game goes on. I'm not sure running fitness is the total problem as I believe we aren't terrible in that area, but more so the fact that our players being leaner than every other team they just cant keep going in hard at a contest and getting crushed over and over. It shows with the graphs that we win contested footy we score well but repeat efforts after getting constantly hit make it hard to win contested footy for 4 quarters. Leaner bodies feel the impacts more.

Post clearance contested ball winning ability (18th in AFL) such as the one with McStud could also be attributed to having a weak muscle core... McStud easily pushed out of the contest and it happened a lot during the games not only just him but probably 75% of the players.

I'm hoping this new Fitness coach can get our players to just dead lift, bench press and squat the whole preseason...I think we should lay off the hardcore long distance running drills as well but focus more on 100-200m repeat sprints.

Given the poor results in non- stoppage contested ball. I think you are spot on. We are losing the one on ones. The Mcstay example is a good one and strength and technique improvements will hopefully see us improve.

I'm not sure if Leppa is more 'stats driven' than other coaches, but as a modern coach he has access to stats and analytical information that coaches (and fans) haven't had the benefit of before. I would expect him to use that and am happy with him doing that.

I don't think it is obscuring his understanding of the game rather and I've not seen evidence that Leppa is so in love with his stats that he misses the big picture. By way of example, Mitch Robinson had a great year but he didn't look like a club champion when he first arrived, or in the first few games. Now Leppa persevered either because a) the stats showed that Robbo was assisting in a critical game area (good use of Stats leppa), or because Leppa just had the gut feeling that he brought something (good use of gut Leppa), in the end Robbo delivered on the key stat that we fans wanted from him, body count.

Stats are the key to the moneyball decisions that change the way the game is perceived and analysed and ultimately played. I would prefer Leppa being ahead of the curve on this and can't understand the negativity.

 

[xplo]

Does anyone else think Leppa is the most Stat driven coach in the AFL?

That is what an AFL coaching gig is in 2015. He got most of it from Hardwick, and Hardwick got it from Clarkson and Choco. Malthouse apparently was the last of the old guard that worked on gut feel more than numbers, and we know how that ended. Mick baulked at assistant coaches attempts to bring in more statistical accountability.

People have complained about Leppas pressers repeatedly leaning on injuries and youth. He barely touched on personnel here, and instead brought us in on measures most club keep to themselves, what they know and how they think.

Not sure what more people could ask of him.

 

[T Rick]

That is what an AFL coaching gig is in 2015. He got most of it from Hardwick, and Hardwick got it from Clarkson and Choco. Malthouse apparently was the last of the old guard that worked on gut feel more than numbers, and we know how that ended. Mick baulked at assistant coaches attempts to bring in more statistical accountability.

People have complained about Leppas pressers repeatedly leaning on injuries and youth. He barely touched on personnel here, and instead brought us in on measures most club keep to themselves, what they know and how they think.

Not sure what more people could ask of him.

Agreed...I am sure if he walked on water some people would have a go at him for being JC.

 

[Skoob]

What's the issue with being "stat driven"? Surely modern sport is just stats. If analysed correctly, winning formulae can be calculated.
For example;

<Snip> Especially that last stat, extra 800 points scored for the year gets us in the top 8, which works out to 1 extra contest won per player each month. If i'm a player, i'm believing that i could do that.

Not sure how else one could coach in this day & age, "Hey kids, just go out there, try hard & have fun".
No point training to do anything unless it has purpose and you analyse the * out of it to know what works, is working and how it impacts.

 

[JasperBeardly]

I quite like the stat breakdowns. The initial graph of our contested ball performance by quarter reinforced the issues we have with a young group and the ability of our 1st and 2nd year players to sustain that effort for a full game. I'd be interested to see a comparison of that graph against next year's version. I also liked the breakdown of contested ball into the pre and post clearance components.

Put it this way, I'd much prefer that presentation to "it's just... the vibe... of the thing".

 

[Kevvo]

That is what an AFL coaching gig is in 2015. He got most of it from Hardwick, and Hardwick got it from Clarkson and Choco. Malthouse apparently was the last of the old guard that worked on gut feel more than numbers, and we know how that ended. Mick baulked at assistant coaches attempts to bring in more statistical accountability.

People have complained about Leppas pressers repeatedly leaning on injuries and youth. He barely touched on personnel here, and instead brought us in on measures most club keep to themselves, what they know and how they think.

Not sure what more people could ask of him.

That is exactly what I got out of it. It struck me as an interesting, transparent summary of what is driving our decisions and what we're focusing on. I enjoyed it.

 

[POBT]

Business intelligence is vital to managing and improving performance in any type of organisation or venture. The old saying of "if you can measure it, you can manage it" isn't always the bullshit bingo phrase that it is made out to be. BI plays an important role in assisting decision makers in understanding what is going on and what levers to pull to improve performance.

The challenge is (a) getting the right information; and (b) making good decisions with that information. But the fact remains that you need data.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I thought that was a very good and insightful review and, as others have said, interesting to hear what the coaches consider to be the relevant bits of data. Wonder what the players who were shown not to be doing things correctly think.

 

[knaf]

I have to say I was heartened by the presentation. The club is obviously trying to build a strong team from the ground up rather than paper over the cracks with superficial changes. Whether Leppa is they man to deliver on the rebuild is still up for debate. It is encouraging that the club has moved away from " just try harder to do the things that aren't working"or even the "we don't kick enough goals get a key forward" approach. And is looking at what wins games and focusing on developing those habits in our young group. Unfortunately it may take time to see the improvement, but we have ten years of evidence that the other methods don't work.

 

[Balony_pony16]

That is what an AFL coaching gig is in 2015. He got most of it from Hardwick, and Hardwick got it from Clarkson and Choco. Malthouse apparently was the last of the old guard that worked on gut feel more than numbers, and we know how that ended. Mick baulked at assistant coaches attempts to bring in more statistical accountability.

People have complained about Leppas pressers repeatedly leaning on injuries and youth. He barely touched on personnel here, and instead brought us in on measures most club keep to themselves, what they know and how they think.

Not sure what more people could ask of him.

Im sure stats are important to every AFL coach... but to reference the names you dropped... I never walked away from Clarkcons, Chocko or Harwick pressors and feels I have just got a run down from the stats man

 

[xplo]

Im sure stats are important to every AFL coach... but to reference the names you dropped... I never walked away from Clarkcons, Chocko or Harwick pressors and feels I have just got a run down from the stats man

Of course. Because that's not what pressers are for. They're for press quotes.

This was a season review trying to give a meaningful understanding of 46ish hours of footy in 12 minutes. There aren't many ways other than stats breakdowns to do that.

 

[SizeMatters]

Im sure stats are important to every AFL coach... but to reference the names you dropped... I never walked away from Clarkcons, Chocko or Harwick pressors and feels I have just got a run down from the stats man

I somewhat agree with you on Leppas pressers but in reality we were so bad this season what else was he supposed to say? Do a MM and abuse a reporter? Would make it interesting at least!

 

[Balony_pony16]

I somewhat agree with you on Leppas pressers but in reality we were so bad this season what else was he supposed to say? Do a MM and abuse a reporter? Would make it interesting at least!

I dont know really... I just made the Stats comment as it was more of the same. I just dont see the passion with him. Does he actually go into Qrt, 1/2, & 3Qrt time dribbling stats to motivate the team? I just dont think he engages fans enough. Not to say the stats messages isnt interesting or relevant... just he goes over board on it and it seems to define his message to the fans/media