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Discussion in 'Major League Baseball' started by lionbear, Nov 7, 2012.
Another "Luv ya work LB" from here too mate
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14. Chicago White Sox (ALC)
Pre Season Ranking 23rd with 73 Wins
Actual 85 wins (12 above estimate)
New manager, this was suppose to be a year of re-building for the White Sox, but they pushed the Tigers all the way, infact they led up until the last week or two of the season. They have a list full of potential anf getting Youkilis seemed to work for them to. But at the end of the day when the September stretch arrived they didn't have the petrol left in the tank to knock the one team we all had written in ink as division winner out of first spot.
What do we expect in 2013, well much of the same, think they will be in it most of the way, but just will fall short, expect their ranking to be very similar to now 14th to 17th.
13. Los Angeles Dodgers (NLW)
Pre Season Ranking 13th with 82 Wins
Actual 86 wins (4 above estimate)
What a start, jumped out to a massive lead in the NLW and on the back of the Magic Johnson group buying the franchise it was a case of how far can this team go. Sadly the Giants eventually reeled them in, and actually won the division very comfortably. But the Dodgers were there for all to see. They have new owners and they are on the way back to becoming a force in the league.
I expect their ranking to hold in 2013, might go up one or two spots, but interestingly I think this side could be a top 5 side in 2014, just feel this new ownership group will want post season success, and will want it quickly. Not much for them in the free agent market this year, but if there is quality in 12 months, don't be surprised to see one or two of them in a Dodgers uniform.
If the Giants have an off year in 2013, expect the Dodgers to play post season baseball.
12. Oakland A's (ALW)
Pre Season Ranking 28th with 73 Wins
Actual 94 wins (21 above estimate)
Wow, simply wow. Who would have thought when they split the opening series of 2012 in Japan, this side would sweep the Rangers in the final series to run away with the ALW. They did ok in the Post season, but the loss in game 2 of the series in Detroit would ultimately coast them as a Verlander Gem in game 5 finished their season.
If the A's had a little more experience, I think they would have won that series in 4 games and the way the Yankees played the division series would have been a battle of the bay in the world series.
What do I expect from this team in 2013, honestly I have no idea, I could have them 10th I could have them 25th, really need to see how their young team goes at Spring training, what players they lose and also if they can sign anything. I think it could be a case of one step back two steps forward for the A's in 2013-2014.
4. National League East
WINNER: Washington Nationals (Division Series Loser)
WILD CARDS: Atlanta Braves (Wild Card Game Loser)
Was surprised when I did my calculations that the National League East came in 4th and not 3rd or second, but in saying that ourside of their two post season teams the NLE had not alot else to crow about. The Marlins which are a long way from anything, Philadelphia which I think will go down before coming up & the New York Mets which appear to be in a holding pattern.
Expect this side to drop to 5th in 2013, unless the Mets improve significantly, Nationals should have an easy path through the post season again in 2013.
3. National League West
WINNER: San Francisco Giants (World Series Champions)
WILD CARDS: NIL
Having the World Series Champions made sure they finished third. The Padres and Rockies drag this division down, but I think they could have some serious competition over the next 5 years with the Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
I do watch and listen to alot of NLW games as they start at Midday Australian time, and always enjoy watching them, look out for some classic high quality games moving forward.
11. Detroit Tigers (ALC)
Pre Season Ranking 8th with 93 Wins
Actual 88 wins (5 below estimate)
This was my hardest decision when doing my post season rankings. This side made the World Series, swept the Yankees yet I could not rank them in the top 10 of my MLB.
88 wins in a division where you play the Twins, Indians and Royals was simply not good enough, the Tigers ahould have had a 95 year win easily. As an Indians supporter I watched the Tigers Indians games a lot and the Indians won more often than not. They have great individual players, Cabrera, Fielder, Verlander, but at the end of the day they did not have a great team.
Felt the A's if they had some experience would have knocked them off in the division series, the Yankees were so shot by mid October that even the Astro's would have pushed them. Then the Giants made them look second rate.
If I did post season rankings after the season then after the playoffs, I have repositioned 2 teams from the results, and the Tigers are not one of them.
As harsh as I have been on the Tigers, I expect with the signings and the work on a more balanced side, they will be a top 5 side in 2013. They will work on becoming a champion team, rather that a team of champions and the results from this could see them take the one extra step in 2013 or 2014.
10. New York Yankees (ALE)
Pre Season Ranking 5th with 92 Wins
Actual 95 wins (3 Above estimate)
If I had done the rankings at the end of the regular season the Yankees would have been my number 3, but they are one of the two teams I have moved based on post season results. The main reason for this is for the third year in a row the Yankees have been the best team in baseball in my opinion in July and come October they seem to no longer have the run in the legs to win it.
This team on paper should have made the World Series, but their players are getting no younger, injuries and form really showed up in October, so much so that the Tigers swept them. Bringing Pattitte out of retirement as much as he performed serviceable isn't a long term solution.Suzuki was a good trade for this season but at 38 once again isn't going to be a 10 year player, and we don't need to say much about A-Rod.
The Yankees are the Yankees, and will be in the top 5 come pre season next year, but we need to see more youth, will they do this? I don't know, Rivera coming back at 43 hopefully is not a sign of things to come on the Yankees roster policy.
9. Baltimore Orioles (ALE)
Pre Season Ranking 27th with 70 Wins
Actual 93 wins (23 Above estimate)
Might be a surprise I have them ahead of both the Tigers and Yankees, but they kept up with the Yankees in September, pushed them in the divisional series, only a Sabathia Gem got them knocked out, and I feel if they like the A's had a little more experience I honestly believe they could have been one of the World Series Teams. Showalter showed what a great manger he is and was a big reason for the birds being there when it counted.
Like the A's they could be 5th ion the pre season they could be 20th, need to see what they do in the off season, but considering the division they play in I think the results highlight this year what a well run organisation they are. They will be on my radio when the Indians aren't playing more that once in 2013.
I am enjoying this lb bit can't wait to have sonera healthy unbiased discussion when its done. looking fwd to your comments on Texas and angels. both who i believe underachieved.
It will be good to have some discussion about it at the end, I honestly believe you could have the final 11 in any order, its just a case of personal preference.
8. Atlanta Braves (NLE)
Pre Season Ranking 14th with 81 Wins
Actual 94 wins (13 Above estimate)
One team I should have had higher in the pre season, the Braves just keep keeping on, they got to play in the first National League Wild Card Games and lost to St.Louis after the infield fly rule was called incorrectly and late. Chipper has now retired which will be a big hole for the Braves in 2013.
What do I expect of them in the pre season, well I think they will be an 8th to 12th ranked team, will again be on the fringes of the playoffs, and if you are in the play offs anything could happen. A very well ran organisation very deserving of a top 10 spot.
7. Tampa Bay Rays (ALE)
Pre Season Ranking 1st with 93 Wins
Actual 90 wins (3 Below estimate)
As I expected, my World Series champion pick from Pre Season ends up not even making the playoffs, I think to have 90 wins in the ALE is always a very good season though. As much as a 90 win season is a good result, the reality is for me I never felt they were in the hunt, if I had to rank teams on how well they are run considering division and Budgets this team would be number 1 and daylight before 2nd.
What do I expect in next years pre season, I expect them to drop a little, about 5th to 10th, they have been about for so long now I think they could take a step back before having a crack at taking a step forward.
6. St.Louis Cardinals (NLC)
Pre Season Ranking 3rd with 93 Wins
Actual 88 wins (5 Below estimate)
A team that knows how to come good at the right time of the year, had 3 cracks at making their second World Series in a row from the Wild card and fell short, the in fly luck in the Wild card game and getting through the divisional series after having a massive deficit against the Nationals in game 5, throw in game 6 of last years. World Series and you have the luckiest team in the MLB. But the better you are run, the more luck you have and that is certainly the case with the Card's.
I expect this team to be well in the top 10 come pre season next year, any team who can say "Albert who?" 12 months after losing the free agent is looking very strong.
5. LA Angels (ALW)
Pre Season Ranking 2nd with 93 Wins
Actual 89 wins (4 Below estimate)
One team I did not know where to rank, pre season I had them second, most probably underachieved in not making the play offs, but then again after the arrival of Trout had the best record in Baseball, for the Angels, they had alot of new players, and I felt once they got into gear showed what they are capable of, Pujols was a little under what was expected, but 12 months in I expect 2013 to be his best year out of the 10 he has signed for the Angels.
Pre Season next year, I expect this team to be top 3, they HAVE to make the play offs considering the coin they have spent the last 12 months, given Pujols is going to start passing his peak after the next year or 2, their World Series window is now or never. If they fail to make post season, expect to see some managerial changes for the Halo's.
2. American League East
WINNER: New York Yankees (Championship Series Loser)
WILD CARDS: Baltimore Orioles (Divisional Series Loser)
All in all the financially strongest division in the MLB, besides the Red Sox (Who are the second strongest team financially in the MLB) this division had good results for all their teams, the Blue Jays have bought up for 2013 so this league is only going to get stronger, and if the Red Sox decide to go for it, this could be the strongest division in baseball, but no team has 90 wins as they beat up on each other.
1. American League West
WINNER: Oakland A's (Division Series Loser)
WILD CARDS: Texas Rangers (Wild Card Game Loser)
Might be a shock that I have this division over the ALE, but at the end of the day, this league has 4 teams, and besides Seattle every team either had a 89+ win and it had 2 teams make the playoffs, sadly for the ALW though the Astros are about to arrive into the league, this will drop the strength of this league greatly, expect them in 2012 to drop by at least 2 spots.
2 teams in the top 10, the division winner in 12th, hard not to say this is not the best performed division for 2012.
4. Cincinnati Reds (NLC)
Pre Season Ranking 11th with 88 Wins
Actual 97 wins (9 above estimate)
The Reds 2-0 up only having to win one of its next three games against the Giants and they lose all three, considering the form of the last 2 American League sides, St.Louis's drop off, and the Angels & Rays watching the post season from the stands, if in 5 years the Reds are falling down the rankings, this is the one that got away. Had they pulled off a win in one of the three games we would be sitting here right now discussing the Reds as World Series Champs.
This is a very good side, and I can see it being in the bottom half of the top 10 come Spring Training Next year. Momentum for them in September will decide whether they can go further in October than this year. I hope they do as failure to make the post season will be a big lot of salt for the wounds of 2012.
This years league ranking was no easy decision, clearly at the moment the American league the better players and if you look at inter league play they had the more wins over those games. But the National league won the All Star game easily and swept the American League in the World Series. The problem for the American League is that if you were to pick 4 sides to represent you in the post season, I don't believe the 4 sides in would have been the ones you pick, I would have brought in the Angels, and Rangers and left off the A's and Tigers. The Yankees clearly run out of Gas, and the Orioles are up and coming like the A's, but not up to World Series play yet, and don't forget the Rays missed out as well. We have 20 20 vision in retrospect, but reality is the National team could have had 2 or 3 other teams make the world series from their Wild Card and Division winners and still took the World Series.
I think ll in all the divisions have been pretty even, AL got the interleague, but NL got the All Star and World series. Because the world series went to the NL and as a bit of a preview for tomorrow the top two teams in my rankings are NL I give number one to the National League.
2: American League.
1: National League
Lionbear's Combined League MVP
Mike Trout (LA Angels) Avg: .326 RBI: 83 HR: 30
Miguel Cabrera (Detroit Tigers) Avg: .330 RBI: 139 HR: 44
Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants) Avg: .336 RBI: 103 HR: 24
I had these three players as the stand outs for the 2012 season, Cabrera with his triple crown was a great effort, Trout in his debut season, and Posey I thinking showing that the last 2 seasons he has played the Giants have walked away with the Silverwear.
Any of these three players are deserving the title of my MVP and if I had to argue any player I think I could successfully argue them as the MVP. But here is my best try at ranking them.
I have Cabrera at 3rd, even though he is the Triple Crown winner I felt that he was in a division that had his side guaranteed to make the post season (Although it was more of a battle than first thought). Please don't take this as a knock on him, he has had a brilliant season but I am trying to seperate cream from cream and little things can make the difference. Also doesn't help I can't get the image of him leaving a fast ball right down the middle to finish the World Series.
Second is Mike Trout, even though his side failed to make the post season, from the point he joined the Angels they had the best record in the American League, I have him in second because I felt his season was a little more consistant, and having that season as a rookie has to be recognised.
In first I have Posey, what a player he is, what a comeback he made from missing most of 2011, and its no coincidence that when Posey didn't play last year the Giants failed to make the post season, that to me is a valuable player. He has 2 World Series rings, caught a perfect game and at only 25 he is in my opinion the best catcher since Gary Carter. A catcher who has a average for the season above .333 shows what an unbelievable season it was.
Congratulations to these three players on a wonderful season.
3: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)
2: Mike Trout (LA Angels)
1: Buster Posey (San Francisco)
Well done lb i was going to pick it apart but since i haven't got the balls to do it all i can do is bow and shake your hand in appreciation. well done fine sir, well done.
3. Texas Rangers (ALW)
Pre Season Ranking 4th with 92 Wins
Actual 93 wins (1 above estimate)
The one team I had massive trouble positioning, I had them 10th, I had them second, but in the end settled on third and surprisingly for me as the best ranked team in the American League. After 2 years of World Series births and cruising once again to a division title, I felt the team hit bad form (Perhaps complacency) at the wrong time, and then got hurt by the randomness of a Wild Card game.
We all have 20 20 vision looking back, and their loss in the Wild Card game was most probably the point of which the National League was going to win the World Series.
There is a lot to happen with signings of this side, but I find it hard to see them dropping out of the top 10 unless their is an absolutely disaster with signing players.
2. San Francisco Giants (NLW)
Pre Season Ranking 7th with 90 Wins
Actual 94 wins (4 above estimate)
So Close to first, yet so far, what a post season they had, fringe players really stood up to the Plate, for me the Big one was Zito his championship game and World Series games where absolute gems and underscored the price the Giants paid for him. Bochy is an October specialist, he has now performed well in 2 World Series, don't forget about MVP Posey as well as well as Cain who had a perfect game in the regular season.
This side was number 1 up to about 48 hours ago, I would have had them about 5th at the end of the regular season, so yes this side was my other side to move base on Post Season performance. I expect this side in 2013 not to be number 1 in the Rankings, but I don't Expect them to be lower than 5th
1. Wahington Nationals (NLE)
Pre Season Ranking 20th with 78 Wins
Actual 98 wins (20 above estimate)
When you look at this side, what they achieved and where they are heading, it is very exciting timed for the Nationals, should have made the championship series, and then anything couldn't happen. How they blew the lead in Game 5 is beyond me.
They had the most wins in baseball, and they achieved this with Strasburg being rested. I hope this doesn't end up being a regret.
I have them number one because they should have made the championship series, They are going to be stronger next year with Strasburg hopefully available in October. There performance and potential makes them in my opinion the number one team is Baseball.
Can't see them dropping out of the Top 3 in pre season next year.
I will post on Monday my final comments in regard to my ranking