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Really? I don't remember Apeness being in our picture much at all.

After hearing McCarthy's interview about Freo the other week, he must have been absolutely devoed when GWS sniped us. We need tell his grandmother to tell him she's getting sick or something.

Sneaky.

That way Melbourne will trump our offer and we can get Hogan on the cheap.
 

ydraw

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Apr 27, 2015
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Just an observation but for someone advocating that we should of drafted a KPP last year, you sure use a lot of midfielders in your historical examples.

That's because good KPF prospects rarely get overlooked.

There's one club that seems to realise exactly how valuable key forwards are and that's GWS. They keep drafting them regardless of need because they know they can trade them later at a profit.
 

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theGav56

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At last year's draft our most needed was a KPF or KPD. We chose a midfielder.

We took the chance back then. We traded for needs and got Croad. We traded the #1 pick knowing that mids would be taken and our needs based priority of Polak would be available at #4. We thankfully also went after Macpharlin despite big injury concerns,again based on needs. That entire debacle was based on our needs rather than who was best available.
 
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It's because they don't come with a guarantee that you need to keep replenishing your supply.

You may have drafted a player who you believe will be a 'generational' midfielder or KPP or ruckman, do you then deliberately avoid anyone who plays that position in the following few drafts?

What if your generational player breaks down repeatedly or simply turns out to be a dud?

Recruiting at AFL level must be a combination of drafting and trading.

Our record at the trade table has been mediocre over the past decade or so. A few hits and a lot of busts. We didn't bother participating during last year's trade period.

We are relying heavily on drafting to improve our list. Fair enough. As we move into a period of sustained success, our access to high draft picks will continue to dry up. Hawthorn haven't had a top 10 draft pick since 2006. Last year Geelong traded their way to their first top 10 pick since 2006. Our last top 10 pick was Morabito in 2009.

Trading away your first round pick is a big ask of any club. Hawthorn being the exception. In 2012 they traded away #21 and #43 for Lake and #27. In 2013 they traded away #18 and #19 and Savage for #24 and #59 and McEvoy. Last year they traded away #19 and #40 for O'Rourke and #43.

Hawthorn have no difficulty trading away first round picks in order to fill specific needs which will help them win now. It's a luxury struggling clubs don't have. We are currently in that Hawthorn zone, our first round picks are not really high enough to get access to the top plums in each draft.

If you have a top 5 pick you should always select best available. When your first pick is outside the top 10 the line between best available and most needed becomes blurred. Is the best available player at #16 any better than the best available player at #21? Hawthorn say no. They'll happily slide down the selection order a few notches and use that leverage to trade in a player they believe they need now whilst not severely compromising their selection position.

Drafting the best available sounds fine. What happens if the best available is always the same type of player? Do you keep ploughing on until you have 40 midfielders? Or 29 KPP's? Or 17 ruckmen?

We are at a significant disadvantage to the Hawthorns of this world when it comes to attracting quality players.

Trading them in is extremely difficult. We need to keep trying.

In the meantime using a first round pick to select most needed rather than best available is also a very valid option.

At last year's draft our most needed was a KPF or KPD. We chose a midfielder.

Whether Weller was best available is open to debate. Weller was projected in that #11-#20 range. During 2013 Lever was rated a top 3 pick. Unfortunately he suffered a knee injury and was overlooked by clubs who were, by and large, desperate for midfielders (the best available matched their needs).

Would selecting a player with a knee injury be a risk? Obviously. Was it a risk worth taking? That's where clubs are supposed to use their due diligence. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that Lever's knee problem was a thing of the past.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-10-30/meet-jake-lever

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...other-ways-to-be-noticed-20141109-11jc35.html

It's a cruel footnote that long time projected #1 Christian Petracca suffered a season ending knee injury before debuting. There are no guarantees.

Never take a risk with an injured teenager?

Consider this.

Chris Judd had two shoulder reconstructions by the age of 17. In the 2001 draft he slipped to #3 because of concerns about his shoulders.

Hawthorn would still be happy with their choice of Hodge. But what of St Kilda?

Luke Ball was a very good midfielder, but he was no Judd.

What may have happened had St Kilda selected Judd instead of Ball will never truly be known.

St Kilda lost the 2004 PF to eventual premiers Port Adelaide by 6 points. Judd was Brownlow medallist that year.

The Saints were very close to premiers in 2009 as well.

In 2010 St Kilda played a drawn grand final. Judd was Brownlow medallist that year.

Had they taken a chance, the Saints may have won three premierships - probably all under Grant Thomas. Ross Lyon may have gone on to be a sacked Melbourne coach. The West Coast Eagles would still be searching for their first flag since 1994.

There are never any guarantees, sometimes you need to take a chance.

Lachie Weller will surely become a star. Hopefully our early 2020's team will contend for a flag. Meanwhile if Jake Lever 'Leo Barry's' us out of an important final I'll be a tad disappointed.


Luke ball got severe OP in his first few years.
 

clogged

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We took the chance back then. We traded for needs and got Croad. We traded the #1 pick knowing that mids would be taken and our needs based priority of Polak would be available at #4. We thankfully also went after Macpharlin despite big injury concerns,again based on needs. That entire debacle was based on our needs rather than who was best available.
What was the needs argument again? The club had picked up Longmuir, Pavlich and Brown as top five picks in 98 and 99. It picked up McPhee in 2000. Then traded Black to get Simmonds in 01.

That's a fair collection of talls. All bar Longmuir went on to play 200 games (and Simmonds who only missed out by 3 games).
 

youmewe

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Dec 22, 2014
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We took the chance back then. We traded for needs and got Croad. We traded the #1 pick knowing that mids would be taken and our needs based priority of Polak would be available at #4. We thankfully also went after Macpharlin despite big injury concerns,again based on needs. That entire debacle was based on our needs rather than who was best available.
In 2001 we had 'needs' across all lines on the field.

Any player we drafted / traded for could be perceived a 'needs' selection.

I did say that a club should never trade a top 5 pick ('always select best available').

IMO Lever was a top 3 pick who slipped to us, Weller was an #11-20 pick who went at the correct part of the draft. Lever was best available as well as most needed.
 
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Bender571

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Would selecting a player with a knee injury be a risk? Obviously. Was it a risk worth taking? That's where clubs are supposed to use their due diligence. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that Lever's knee problem was a thing of the past.

The problem with Lever wasn't just the question mark on his body, but that he was missing the most important assessment year. There have been plenty of players who have looked good a year before their draft only to plummet down the draft. Tom Swift was described as the best 16 year old in the country (admittedly by Crazy Vossy)

Here's knightmare's thoughts on 2014 draft prospects the year before they were eligible, and where they were drafted in brackets
"Hugh Goggard (pick #21), Clem Smith (#60) and Jake Lever (#14) are my top 3 at this point.

Lachie Weller (#13) and Alec Waterman (#76) also impressive and would round out my 5 for now."
 
Sep 11, 2008
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The problem with Lever wasn't just the question mark on his body, but that he was missing the most important assessment year. There have been plenty of players who have looked good a year before their draft only to plummet down the draft. Tom Swift was described as the best 16 year old in the country (admittedly by Crazy Vossy)

Here's knightmare's thoughts on 2014 draft prospects the year before they were eligible, and where they were drafted in brackets
"Hugh Goggard (pick #21), Clem Smith (#60) and Jake Lever (#14) are my top 3 at this point.

Lachie Weller (#13) and Alec Waterman (#76) also impressive and would round out my 5 for now."

This is where you need balls. Sometimes you get a Beau Dowler, other times you get a Mitch Thorp.

Sometimes you get a Stringer, other times you get a Swift. Injured players always drop lower because you have not seen them play enough.
 

blue shark

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All of our backs could be ready for finals this year, it is an issue with age, injuries, and one you would think has become a priority for next
year. In hindsight it would appear we left ourselves short, but we should be able to cover in the short term.
When we have seen what Weller brings to the table, then we can argue his merits. If we had our time again Polak wouldn't be in Purple.
 

theGav56

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In 2001 we had 'needs' across all lines on the field.

Any player we drafted / traded for could be perceived a 'needs' selection.
The club patently rated class in Key Positions as it's number 1 need.

Same kind of argument could be made that Weller is needs based if you perceive that we are backing a game plan based on midfield dominance with elite skills and pace.
 
Apr 14, 2008
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The club patently rated class in Key Positions as it's number 1 need.

Same kind of argument could be made that Weller is needs based if you perceive that we are backing a game plan based on midfield dominance with elite skills and pace.
Shame the club was run by a bunch of morons then
 

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The club patently rated class in Key Positions as it's number 1 need.

Same kind of argument could be made that Weller is needs based if you perceive that we are backing a game plan based on midfield dominance with elite skills and pace.
Our pressure game relies on being able to cover space to create contests and spillages during opposition rebounding from half back.

Id argue our gameplan is:
Win centre bounce clearance, shot on goal.
Intercept opposition rebounding, run hard, shot on goal.
Intercept opposition inside fifty entry, kick long for stoppage, start at top of list again.
Kick out from goal to the fifty, kick long for stoppage, start at top of list again.
 

beetz

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Our pressure game relies on being able to cover space to create contests and spillages during opposition rebounding from half back.

Id argue our gameplan is:
Win centre bounce clearance, shot on goal.
Intercept opposition rebounding, run hard, shot on goal.
Intercept opposition inside fifty entry, kick long for stoppage, start at top of list again.
Kick out from goal to the fifty, kick long for stoppage, start at top of list again.


I'd argue those components make up every AFL teams' game plan.
 

theGav56

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Our pressure game relies on being able to cover space to create contests and spillages during opposition rebounding from half back.

Id argue our gameplan is:
Win centre bounce clearance, shot on goal.
Intercept opposition rebounding, run hard, shot on goal.
Intercept opposition inside fifty entry, kick long for stoppage, start at top of list again.
Kick out from goal to the fifty, kick long for stoppage, start at top of list again.
And the need for KPPs in that is less critical than in the past I think. Mobile ruckmen, intercept defenders and tall midfielders perhaps more important.
 

rodney hoo

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Any thoughts on Charley Dixon today, I was not impressed if $750,000 is suposed to be the cost.
 
Rather Carlisle if he gets off. Hird is ruining him

Only if we want him as a defender. He hates playing up forward and unless he gets a guarantee that he will be used primarily as a defender then I can't see him coming.
 
Sep 22, 2011
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What was the needs argument again? The club had picked up Longmuir, Pavlich and Brown as top five picks in 98 and 99. It picked up McPhee in 2000. Then traded Black to get Simmonds in 01.

That's a fair collection of talls. All bar Longmuir went on to play 200 games (and Simmonds who only missed out by 3 games).
Tbh we just didn't use the talls in the way Ross does now. Under Connolly it was just mismatch of players in wrong positions.
McPharlin up forward and back, then finally at CHB under Harvey/Lyon.
Pav as a FF/CHF took a while to eventuate, whereas Simmonds was touted as a FF when he was more a ruckman.
We hardly played McPhee when we first got him, and he went on to become CHB AA at Essendon. Croad again was used as a forward whose natural position ended up being CHB, which yep he went on to be AA during Hawthorn premiership season in 08. MJ was another one that went forward and looked out of his depth, before luckily he re-found his mofo down back. Polak was the enigma tbh, started as a backman then shifted forward and never really looked comfortable. There's also Chris Tarrant in 07, which ended up being invaluable down back for us, AA form too before his PCL injury.
 

ydraw

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Tbh we just didn't use the talls in the way Ross does now. Under Connolly it was just mismatch of players in wrong positions.
McPharlin up forward and back, then finally at CHB under Harvey/Lyon.
Pav as a FF/CHF took a while to eventuate, whereas Simmonds was touted as a FF when he was more a ruckman.
We hardly played McPhee when we first got him, and he went on to become CHB AA at Essendon. Croad again was used as a forward whose natural position ended up being CHB, which yep he went on to be AA during Hawthorn premiership season in 08. MJ was another one that went forward and looked out of his depth, before luckily he re-found his mofo down back. Polak was the enigma tbh, started as a backman then shifted forward and never really looked comfortable. There's also Chris Tarrant in 07, which ended up being invaluable down back for us, AA form too before his PCL injury.

It's not really a coincidence. Playing in defense is easier, which is why accomplished key forwards are so rare and valuable.

McPharlin was actually pretty good as a key forward. Could easily have remained there and used Croad as a defender and maybe things might have worked out pretty differently.
 

sherrif

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Any thoughts on Charley Dixon today, I was not impressed if $750,000 is suposed to be the cost.
Getting Dixon would cost us severely at the trade table and that is the problem. The afl.com.au website had an article about someone wanting Dixon more than than the Suns do and it was implied that we were the team. If the rumours are true then I hope we try and get him via the preseason draft. Anyone suggesting Gold Coast would accept anything less than our first pick and weller is deluded. Weller might be a player that Gold Coast lure because of his Queensland connections. Fringe players like de Boer and Suban have little to no trade value.
 
Sep 22, 2011
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Any thoughts on Charley Dixon today, I was not impressed if $750,000 is suposed to be the cost.
Offer 600k max and/or a performance based contract. Guy has played like 50-60 games out of a possible 90 or so, hardly been consistent enough in form as well as the alcohol issue. Surely we should shy away from these types ala Mitch Clark..
 
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