Analysis Making the Top 4 and building to a flag. 4TH is IRRELEVANT, MAKE IT TOP 3

[Pappagallo]

I still shake my head how that is possible

Surely no other team in the history of the game has lost to the bottom two clubs and beaten the premiers twice in one season.

It has to be a record.

 

[LukeSA]

I still shake my head how that is possible

I think it's time to move on from those games, yes is it bitterly disappointing but there is no point dwelling on it anymore. I just hope the boys have learnt from these games and hopefully it won't happen in future seasons.

 

[Janus]

David King plotted Hawthorn's premiership standard attack/defence last night on Fox Footy, lauding their defence for being so stingy in only conceding about 70 points per game.

Of course, we put 99 and 108 past them, bookmarking our losses to Brisbane and Carlton. Ffs.

Hawthorn lost to Essendon and GWS. Richmond lost to Melbourne. North Melbourne lost to Gold Coast. Upsets happen.

Losing to Brisbane and Carlton wasn't the reason we failed this year. We failed because unlike Hawthorn, we didn't respond to a loss with aggression, but with acceptance. At least those two games were away from home. Losing to West Coast, Richmond and Geelong was more damning for mine. Those teams shouldn't be anywhere near us at home and we let them waltz into the castle and steal the jewel of a win at Adelaide Oval. Suddenly we had every team trying to * us over in our home.

Weak willed, supplicant bullshit from a bunch of players that felt they needed to take it easy on lesser teams.

 

[Byrons Firen]

I still shake my head how that is possible

We pulled their pants down in 2014. You wouldn't be human if there wasn't massive incentive for revenge.
Brisbane, well I'll give them their dues they were hungrier than us(not an excuse btw,just say'in).
The Carlton game well **** me that was umpire assisted, big time, Nicholls was it?
A draw in 2016 reflective of where we finished in 2015 would be all we need to make top'4.
I THINK letting us the fans down will drive our boys next yr.
Showing up in #'s as we did for the last few games when finals were off the table would have told the playing group
our love is deeper than you may have feared. You wont be alone in 2016.

 

[Power Raid]

I think it's time to move on from those games, yes is it bitterly disappointing but there is no point dwelling on it anymore. I just hope the boys have learnt from these games and hopefully it won't happen in future seasons.

I still haven't got over that time we lost to Woodville Woodpeckers

 

[Byrons Firen]

Hey Power Raid were WCE held to account for that failed effort in the GF by WA media or was it glossed over with
Brave Weagles
Hawthorn unbeatable on the day
?

 

[Power Raid]

Hey Power Raid were WCE held to account for that failed effort in the GF by WA media or was it glossed over with
Brave Weagles
Hawthorn unbeatable on the day
?

I didn't catch much of the media but one report was..........
such hope and came out firing
but it was obvious early on the hawks were just too good; and
the eagles had there worst performance of the year
its a young team and will be better for the experience


the media here is very different to that of SA on how they report on "everything". SA seems to look for the negative and sink the boot in, where here it can have that element but more often than not rewards the journey more than the destination.

 

[Byrons Firen]

Here, we at Port, are largely measured by our destination and scorned along the way. We have to fight for our oxygen.
Most media is unashamedly pro crow, even openly proud (code for bias). Its uphill a lot for us.
We have something and they wanna know what it is. We are climbing by growing and they're not.
They know it !......and we know...... they know it

 

[Byrons Firen]

Surely no other team in the history of the game has lost to the bottom two clubs and beaten the premiers twice in one season.

It has to be a record.

Tullah Bankhead once said I don't care what they say about me as long as they're talking about me.
She was quite a gal
tallulah bankhead quotes

 

[Power Raid]

Here, we at Port, are largely measured by our destination and scorned along the way. We have to fight for our oxygen.
Most media is unashamedly pro crow, even openly proud (code for bias). Its uphill a lot for us.
We have something and they wanna know what it is. We are climbing by growing and they're not.
They know it !......and we know...... they know it

F'em

 

[Dalphonso]

Surely no other team in the history of the game has lost to the bottom two clubs and beaten the premiers twice in one season.

It has to be a record.

I remember Carlton the 1995 premiers were beaten twice through out the season by the 2 bottom sides I think?Sydney and St Kilda.
I reckon it was in consecutive weeks too?

 

[Dalphonso]

I still shake my head how that is possible

Fear not Hawthorn have come out and said the club was rattled by Brett Rattens Son's death.That is why they played so poorly against Port Adelaide.

 

[Power Raid]

I remember Carlton the 1995 premiers were beaten twice through out the season by the 2 bottom sides I think?Sydney and St Kilda.
I reckon it was in consecutive weeks too?

I remember that. It was bizarre given how bad the bottom sides were.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I remember Carlton the 1995 premiers were beaten twice through out the season by the 2 bottom sides I think?Sydney and St Kilda.
I reckon it was in consecutive weeks too?

Correct. They were both 10+ goal losses and they were back to back loses. I was at the SCG the first week of those loses. Plugger kicked a bag, 9 or 10 IIRC but Sydney werent bottom they were above both St Kilda and Fitzroy and one or two teams other teams. St Kilda were bottom the day they played Carlton.

For some reason the Swans matched up really well between 1990-1995 against Carlton when the Swans were rubbish and Carlton were a good side. Mark Bayes had a great record on Kernahan.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Follow up on my last post on page 1 in September 2013

Winning a premiership and follow up drafting and the results 7 years later
1997 Adelaide ----->2004 12th - 8 wins
1998 Adelaide ----> 2005 4th - 17 wins + 1 finals win
1999 North -------> 2006 14th - 7 wins
2000 Essendon ----> 2007 12th - 10 wins
2001 Brisbane -----> 2008 10th - 10 wins
2002 Brisbane -----> 2009 4th - 13 wins + 1 finals win
2003 Brisbane -----> 2010 13th - 7 wins
2004 Port ----------> 2011 16th - 3 wins
2005 Sydney ------> 2012 3rd end of H&A 16 wins then Premiers + 3 finals wins in QF away from home
2006 West Coast --> 2013 13th - 9 wins
2007 Geelong ------> 2014 3rd end H&A then 5th - 17 wins the 0-2 in finals.
2008 Hawthorn -----> 2015 3rd end of H&A 16 wins then Premiers despite losing QF 3-1 in finals.
update
2009 Geelong ------> 2016 2nd at end of home and away 17 wins win QF over Hawks lose PF to swans
2010 Collingwood --> 2017 13th 9 wins and a draw

Those stats say Sydney, Hawks and to a lesser extent Geelong aren't normal, and we were abnormally bad. 6 of 13 premiers made finals and 12 H&A wins is the average result.

Losing a Gf and follow up drafting and the results 7 years later
1997 St Kilda ------->2004 3rd - 16 wins + 1-2 in finals
1998 North. --------> 2005 5th - 13 wins + 0-1 in finals for 7th
1999 Carlton -------> 2006 16th - 3 wins and a draw
2000 Melbourne ----> 2007 14th - 5 wins
2001 Essendon -----> 2008 12th - 8 wins
2002 Collingwood---> 2009 4th - 15 wins + 1-2 in finals
2003 Collingwood --> 2010 1st - 17 wins and a draw Premiers + 3 wins and a draw in finals
2004 Brisbane ------> 2011 15th - 4 wins
2005 West Coast ----> 2012 5th - 15 wins + 1-1 in finals
2006 Sydney --------> 2013 4th - 16 wins + 1-2 in finals
2007 Port -----------> 2014 5th - 14 wins + 2-1 in finals.
2008 Geelong ------> 2015 10th - 11 wins and a draw plus 1 game not played due to Phil Walsh death
update
2009 St Kilda ------> 2016 9th - 12 wins
2009 St Kilda ------> 2016 11th - 11 wins

Those stats say Collingwood aren't normal. 7 of 13 grand finalists made finals and 11.5 H&A wins is the average result.

 

[charcolechaddy]

Here, we at Port, are largely measured by our destination and scorned along the way. We have to fight for our oxygen.
Most media is unashamedly pro crow, even openly proud (code for bias). Its uphill a lot for us.
We have something and they wanna know what it is. We are climbing by growing and they're not.
They know it !......and we know...... they know it

But they have no idea how to stop it!

 

[raptalia]

With reference to the original post. It highlights just how vital sound recruiting is to building toward a premiership. Geelong's recruiting between 1999 and 2002 was phenomenal. I cannot recall another AFL club recruiting as many 250+ gamers in such a short period. Many people point to Geelong's use of father son rules to build to a Premiership but there were not that many father son gifts among that number and as you point out REH it was down to sound, maybe lucky, recruiting and some astute trading in a short period. Geelong also signed Bomber Thompson at the end of 1999 so maybe the right coach was also important. They picked up Tom Harley from us in 1999 as part of the Montgomery deal and in that year we also let a Port product in Corey Enright fall to Geelong at #47 in a year in which we took Paul Koulouriotis, Cain Ackland and Brett Guerra before him. I realise that it is easy to criticise with hindsight but ouch! Enright still hurts.

Despite their recruiting bonanza it still took Geelong eight years to win a flag from their start in 1999 so maybe one is just around the corner for us?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

With reference to the original post. It highlights just how vital sound recruiting is to building toward a premiership. Geelong's recruiting between 1999 and 2002 was phenomenal. I cannot recall another AFL club recruiting as many 250+ gamers in such a short period. Many people point to Geelong's use of father son rules to build to a Premiership but there were not that many father son gifts among that number and as you point out REH it was down to sound, maybe lucky, recruiting and some astute trading in a short period. Geelong also signed Bomber Thompson at the end of 1999 so maybe the right coach was also important. They picked up Tom Harley from us in 1999 as part of the Montgomery deal and in that year we also let a Port product in Corey Enright fall to Geelong at #47 in a year in which we took Paul Koulouriotis, Cain Ackland and Brett Guerra before him. I realise that it is easy to criticise with hindsight but ouch! Enright still hurts.

Despite their recruiting bonanza it still took Geelong eight years to win a flag from their start in 1999 so maybe one is just around the corner for us?

Not much luck involved in 12 players drafted over 4 drafts that became premiership players out of 22 players drafted in those 4 drafts (plus rookies) - including 2 father sons - Mr Ablett in 2001 and a neville nobody Tim Callan in 2002. Stephen Wells started in recruiting at Geelong in 1984 and became their head recruiter in 1995 and is still in that job. There was no luck involved in them getting 4 picks in the top 25 in the first Superdraft in 2001 and another 2 picks by 41. That's knowledge of the draft depth and smart strategic planning.

Port traded Tom Harley to Geelong for pick 37 at end of 1998 for which we used to draft Adam Morgan as our one 17 year old player in the 1998 draft. We, along with other 15 clubs stuffed up and ignored a 17 year old Matthew Pavlich. And the dills in the media still talk about the genius of Alan Stewart!! And yes Enright still hurts considering our 3 picks before him and he was a local boy!

Monty was part of the Eagleton trade in the October 1999 trade period.

 

[raptalia]

Not much luck involved in 12 players drafted over 4 drafts that became premiership players out of 22 players drafted in those 4 drafts - including 2 father sons - Mr Ablett in 2001 and a neville nobody Tim Callan in 2002. Stephen Wells started in recruiting at Geelong in 1984 and became their head recruiter in 1995 and is still in that job. There was no luck involved in them getting 4 picks in the top 25 in the first Superdraft in 2001 and another 2 picks by 41. That's knowledge of the draft depth and smart strategic planning.

Port traded Tom Harley to Geelong for pick 37 at end of 1998 for which we used to draft Adam Morgan as our one 17 year old player in the 1998 draft. We, along with other 15 clubs stuffed up and ignored a 17 year old Matthew Pavlich. And the dills in the media still talk about the genius of Alan Stewart!!

Monty was part of the Eagleton trade in the October 1999 trade period.

I agree it is one thing to have the picks another to use them to your advantage. Is it any wonder Stephen Wells has stayed at Geelong for so long?

Pavlich was a real clanger because as I understand it he is Bucky Cunningham's nephew and Russell Ebert was singing his praises in 1998! I can recall Russell really plugging the 17 year old Pavlich in the press but no one listened. Ebert was still estranged from the Club at that stage so he probably did not go out of his way to do us any favours which is fair enough. I guess the only positive was that the Crows also overlooked Pavlich as a 17 year old. Not sure how it worked but as the Crows went top in 1998 we probably had the call before them.

In all fairness Alan Stewart did give us the inside info on Nathan Steinberner, Jarrod Cotton, and Paul Geister all of who he would have coached at Centrals.

Just looking though the Footy Wire for past players and they have Jimmy Toumpas listed as a 'past' player for us. Do they know something we don't?

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I have copied FallingLiefs spreadsheet and full post that he posted here in the List Management thread at
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/list-management-for-2016.1133161/page-11#post-45146202

I have put this info in this thread, but this graphic does a nice job visually compared to my lists.

Watching NBA finals and during breaks was doing this, comparing list management of port vs the best team of the modern era, Hawthorn. players aquired, year and ladder position in that year included. 100 game players, projected 100 game players or in some cases just high quality players.

Via Draft
Via Trade
Unknown Quality

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I will do a more indepth analysis next week but this Emma Quayle article in the Age is a pretty good one about the Bulldogs rejuvenating their list since their triple PF's in 2008-10 period and then rebuilding a list that couldn't go any further.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/tradin...order--your-dynamic-list-20161004-grutep.html

The Western Bulldogs lost a preliminary final in 2010, not quite good enough for the third year in a row.Their decline from there was a quick one. By the end of the next year, the Bulldogs were the 10th best team. They were looking for a new coach. They knew they had no choice but to start over. It was not a good time to be bad. Given the arrival of the expansion teams, it was meant to be the worst time.
.....
With other teams pushed down the order due to Gold Coast's domination of the first round and the latest version of the bidding system not yet in place, the Bulldogs were able to draft Mitch Wallis and Tom Liberatore as first and second round picks (2010 draft). Since then, though, the Dogs have pieced together a premiership line-up in incredibly quick time, from a challenging spot, with a change of coach and what has turned out to be just a mini-crisis right in the middle of it all.

Five members of Saturday's side were there when Simon Dalrymple moved from a coaching role into the head recruiting position, after Scott Clayton's move to the Suns: Jordan Roughead, Easton Wood and three former rookies, Matthew Boyd, Dale Morris and Liam Picken.

Tom Boyd was traded in, so was Shane Biggs and Joel Hamling was picked up as a delisted free agent.

Dalrymple and his team found the other 14, nailing picks that needed to be made the absolute most of but also finding players in much darker corners. Marcus Bontempelli, Jake Stringer and Jack Macrae are the only three top 10 picks on the Dogs' list. Clay Smith is the only other first-rounder, chosen at the end of 2011 with a pick pushed down to 17 because Greater Western Sydney had so many early selections.

Of Dalrymple's 14 premiership players, Luke Dahlhaus and Jason Johannisen were chosen as rookies at the end of 2010. Liberatore was already there, the Dogs matching a bid for him in the second round of the 2010 draft. Toby McLean and Josh Dunkley were drafted in the 20s, Caleb Daniel in the 40s, Tory Dickson in the 50s and Fletcher Roberts in the preseason draft after he was overlooked by all clubs in the national draft.

Lachie Hunter made it into the 40s after other clubs (in hindsight) waited too long to put their hand up for him as a father-son. Pick 62 was all that was needed to match a bid for Zaine Cordy, who played just his 11th game on Saturday.

While they were old Dogs six years ago, on Saturday the Bulldogs fielded a much younger team, one that should still have significant growing to do. They have turned things around while other clubs are still trying to make their way up from the bottom. They have found players in all parts of the draft, while picking the right time to move others on. They have rebuilt their list at super-speed, at a time when others have had access to more, and they have won at a time when they were still supposed to be waiting in the queue.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/tradin...order--your-dynamic-list-20161004-grutep.html
Above story has 23 players. Mitch Wallis didn't play in the GF. Jordan Roughead pick 31 2008 and Easton Wood pick 43 2007 draft. Shane Biggs was originally drafted by the swans in the December 2012 rookie draft pick 13.

 

[Robbie4PM]

Well looking at the lists of players that Hawks recruited compared to ours I think there is a pretty obvious talent gap. Genuine A graders there are Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell, Franklin, Roughead, Rioli, Burgers, Bruest and Gunston. What do we have Gray, Ryder, maybe Pittard & Wingard I guess. Wines could be but isn't atm. I think that comparison makes me sick but I guess they won 4 flags.

 

[Janus]

The more I look at the Bulldogs the more I think it was just a case of a side making the most of the chance presented to it by the AFL and that ridiculously easy early draw. And goes to show teamwork trumps talent any day of the week.

I'll be extremely surprised if they come anywhere near close to winning a flag again with that list.

 

[Andre]

The more I look at the Bulldogs the more I think it was just a case of a side making the most of the chance presented to it by the AFL and that ridiculously easy early draw. And goes to show teamwork trumps talent any day of the week.

I'll be extremely surprised if they come anywhere near close to winning a flag again with that list.

That's what infuriates many of us. 2014 we were the only side to have the Hawks measure (if we'd kicked straight in the first), whilst 2015 and 2016 were more even then most years and we stuffed the golden years right up.

We mock the Bulldogs having so many Etihad games they need a Sherpa to find the MCG, but it shows the importance of having a game plan that first and foremost gets you enough wins at your home ground. Tweaking our game plan / list to firstly get to winning almost all our home games should be priority number 1. If you're half decent there's enough away games against s**t sides to take 9 or 10 wins at AO to enough for top 4.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

That's what infuriates many of us. 2014 we were the only side to have the Hawks measure (if we'd kicked straight in the first), whilst 2015 and 2016 were more even then most years and we stuffed the golden years right up.

We mock the Bulldogs having so many Etihad games they need a Sherpa to find the MCG, but it shows the importance of having a game plan that first and foremost gets you enough wins at your home ground. Tweaking our game plan / list to firstly get to winning almost all our home games should be priority number 1. If you're half decent there's enough away games against s**t sides to take 9 or 10 wins at AO to enough for top 4.

We won 4 out of 12 at AO and 6 on the road, Richmond at the MCG, Melbourne in Alice, Collingwood at the MCG, Brisbane, North at Docklands and Gold Coast. And we should have won against Carlton at Docklands and Freo in Subi.

We played poorly at home letting sides shut us down too easily. I though we played well against the Bulldogs and the Hawks given the side we had in those days, even the home showdown Rd 22 was alright but Adelaide away showdown, Geelong, Melbourne, West Coast, and GWS we just capitulated when the heat was on.