Might this be the year a 5-8 side wins the flag?

[kirky]

Cumulative probability is a harsh mistress.

People need to understand it's never about there being a massive gulf in class between 1-4 and 5-8.

It's about there being a series of small variables which progressively stack up against 5th-8th sides to make it extremely hard for them to make, let alone win a grand final.

When you stack together:

- potential travel
- do or die games for 3 weeks
- no week off
- lower bar for finals 'success' means progressively less motivation.

The dice get progressively weighted against them. The week off isn't just huge because of the rest, (which includes both general tiredness and a likelihood that some people will miss through injury) it's huge because it reduces the number of probability hoops a top 4 team has to jump through to win the lot. It's why it's far easier to pick a quinella rather than a trifecta.

Let's say 5th has 55% chance of winning in week 1, because they are better than 8th and have the home ground advantage.

The following week, they will face a better side, on their home turf, which sees a straight sets exit as an unmitigated disaster and will play accordingly. So maybe 5th has a 40% chance of winning in week 2.

Then in the prelim 5th will potentially be traveling again.
Their opponent will be better rested than them, they will probably be carrying a few injuries or a suspension, and they will be a better side to begin with. Plus in the last ten minutes there may be that nagging sense for 5th that even if they don't win everyone will still be pretty happy to have got that far. So maybe 5th has a 35% chance of winning the PF.

Assuming they get through the prelim, they then have the GF probably against a slightly more well rested opponent, and certainly against a somewhat better team. Put those together and let's say 5th has a 40% chance of winning the GF (higher than the PF because the venue is neutral and the opponent at least had to play the week before in an equally cut throat game.

Stack those odds together and there is around a 8% chance of a 5th placed team making a grand final and a 2-3% chance of them winning the lot. 6-8th have progressively lower chances.

By way of comparison, let's say 1st has a 60% chance of winning week 1. If they win, they probably have a 60% chance of winning the PF against a random opponent, and a 50% chance of winning the GF. Plus they have an additional and I can't be stuffed trying to quantify chance of making the GF via the semi final safety net. What that means is first probably about a 35% chance of making the GF and about a 15-20% chance of winning it.

The only variable this year is there is not much more between 5-8th to 1st-4th than in previous years. Agree with the thoughts though. Eventually a team from 5-8 will get thru and win, it's just when will it happen.

 

[Runnin Blue]

Dodgy calls - funny coming from a Cats supporter. More dodgy calls at the Cattery than anywhere.

Enjoy your September off.

You do understand that Crows support away from Adelaide is probably the best of all the non-Victorian sides. Would probably get 20k support at the 'G' for an away final - just look at 2012 PF against Hawks.

He's a Weagles supporter. He's just bitter that the Perth lawn bowls team flew into Adelaide to play the Crows this weekend.

 

[The King!]

No wont happen, hear it every year

 

[bullish23]

The only variable this year is there is not much more between 5-8th to 1st-4th than in previous years. Agree with the thoughts though. Eventually a team from 5-8 will get thru and win, it's just when will it happen.

Agree with this but when you have top 2 both from Perth, then it's probably impossible. This year a team from 5-8 would have to win in Perth and then back up and win the following week.

 

[Withnail]

Crows are the biggest paper tiger of all time. Check out their fixture since round 10 - arm chair ride.

So if you add up the ladder positions of all the Crows' opponents from round 10 and all of Geelong's opponents from round 10 and add one extra point for every home game, you get 125 points each... on the dot.

See you next week, eh?

 

[Mead]

The only variable this year is there is not much more between 5-8th to 1st-4th than in previous years. Agree with the thoughts though. Eventually a team from 5-8 will get thru and win, it's just when will it happen.

Agree it will happen eventually, but Halley's Comet will be back eventually also.

If there's, eg, a 5% chance of any of 5th-8th winning the flag in a given year, which actually seems to me a reasonable guess based on the numbers I was messing around with, it should happen once every 20 years.

But logically we should see 5th-8th make grand finals at least twice as often as they win them, and we haven't so it may be more like a 1 in 30 or 40 year event . Will happen eventually, but some people reading this thread may be dead before it does.

 

[kirky]

Agree with this but when you have top 2 both from Perth, then it's probably impossible. This year a team from 5-8 would have to win in Perth and then back up and win the following week.

Don't disagree and this year is exceptionally hard given possibly two trips to Perth but heck you never know. Keep the dream alive until the flame is snuffed out.

 

[basashi]

Strictly speaking there is a 100% chance of a team winning any given elimination final. So your probably would rise to 2%

EDIT: Plus there is a 100% chance that two of the lower 4 get through to the second week. So the probability goes up to 4% and that doesn't include the chance that they get to play each other in the GF.

haha

I meant a given side... but yeah, if you get away from just talking about Adelaide, the calc should start from week two.

my point is that people get captured by the narrative and don't realise how unlikely their teams path is. It is a kind of an example of the conjunctive low probability fallacy.

 

[Rod Stroker]

The missing detail there is that Adelaide finished 5th in 1998 and yet had to play away against the side that finished 4th (Melbourne), and for that reason the final was not an elimination final.

There were no Elim Finals back then. They were all Qualifying Finals, with the lowest 2 losers eliminated.
Of course the higher ranking team was, and still is, entitled to a home final, so I don't see the issue with 4th hosting 5th.

This year the team that finishes 5th does have to play an elimination final, but they get a home game against the side which finishes 8th.

You're not suggesting that you'd prefer to finish 5th and host an Elim final with season over if you lose, rather than finish 5th and play away with a likely double chance as the Crows had in 98?

 

[ok.crows]

so I don't see the issue with 4th hosting 5th.

No issue, it was just different. In 1998 the 5th team faced a harder opponent in the first round of finals, and they had an away game. These days they face an easier opponent in a home game. The advantage for finishing 5th these days is the easier opponent and the home game, in 1998 the advantage was that in the first round of finals a loss would probably not eliminate the side. It is a swings and roundabouts situation.

I mention it because it is an entirely relevant counterpoint to your claim: "The missing detail there is that Adelaide traveled to Melbourne first up, and lost. If that happens this time, the rest is irrelevant."

I am just pointing out that there are swings-and-roundabouts factors involved which make the comparison of finals this year to finals in 1998 closer than your post suggests.

 

[Hardhat11]

Dodgy calls - funny coming from a Cats supporter. More dodgy calls at the Cattery than anywhere.

Enjoy your September off.

You do understand that Crows support away from Adelaide is probably the best of all the non-Victorian sides. Would probably get 20k support at the 'G' for an away final - just look at 2012 PF against Hawks.

You won't win next week

Tex might be suspended

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

well it begs the question: does the finals layout the way it is now too greatly favour the top 4? we understand that the teams that perform best during the regular season should be rewarded, but if it's become such a foregone conclusion that you must be in the top 4 to win the flag, then we might as well only make the finals 4 teams...

 

[ok.crows]

You won't win next week

Tex might be suspended

Why would Tex be suspended for McGovern taking his legs out from under him?

 

[Procrastinator35]

No wont happen, hear it every year

It's possible, though highly improbable.

 

[Coolangatta]

well it begs the question: does the finals layout the way it is now too greatly favour the top 4? we understand that the teams that perform best during the regular season should be rewarded, but if it's become such a foregone conclusion that you must be in the top 4 to win the flag, then we might as well only make the finals 4 teams...

I agree that the finals series is usually predictable, particularly the semi and prelim finals, but its predictability is a testament to the accuracy of the ladder I think.

 

[Hardhat11]

Why would Tex be suspended for McGovern taking his legs out from under him?

No ..he chose to bump .....watch the video

Tex is dumb

 

[Kram]

There were no Elim Finals back then. They were all Qualifying Finals, with the lowest 2 losers eliminated.
Of course the higher ranking team was, and still is, entitled to a home final, so I don't see the issue with 4th hosting 5th.

You're not suggesting that you'd prefer to finish 5th and host an Elim final with season over if you lose, rather than finish 5th and play away with a likely double chance as the Crows had in 98?

That first final 8 system was so stupid.

 

[tek87]

well a 5-8 side is already on top of the ladder so why not

 

[The King!]

It's possible, though highly improbable.

If hawthorn want to lose to carlton and fall to 5th somehOw then yep

 

[Coolangatta]

I don't get why people keep saying someone from outside the top 4 will win it one day either. Good enough to win it, but not good enough to make top 4? That would be surprising, unless the best side has a bad run with injuries at the start of the season that sees them miss top 4, but is at full strength for the finals. Interesting that the Crows just so happen to be hitting form with their best 18 (correct me if I'm wrong) available. Funny how that works. Maybe they could do it. I thought Port were good enough last year and if not for bad kicking, might have made the GF and won it.

 

[1achie]

I don't get why people keep saying someone from outside the top 4 will win it one day either. Good enough to win it, but not good enough to make top 4? That would be surprising, unless the best side has a bad run with injuries at the start of the season that sees them miss top 4, but is at full strength for the finals. Interesting that the Crows just so happen to be hitting form with their best 18 (correct me if I'm wrong) available. Funny how that works. Maybe they could do it. I thought Port were good enough last year and if not for bad kicking, might have made the GF and won it.

Brad Crouch would be the only one missing from our best team. Some people would make an argument for Jeansch as well, but yes we're pretty close to full strength.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Can't see it, but if anyone can shake up the finals it is Richmond. However can they do it week after week...I'm far from convinced. Only 2 weeks ago they lost a pretty winnable game when they had a top 4 spot for the taking. Can't see the Dogs (12 months too soon), or Adelaide (inconsistent still especially away- and they are having to play all finals away if they lose next week). North won't win it, period.

 

[FyfeToAdelaide]

No ..he chose to bump .....watch the video

Tex is dumb

Braced himself once the guy dived in at the ball and was taking out his legs.. So he hit his head yet injured his shoulder? Flog on

 

[Dr Awkward]

This year seems like one of the least likely years. There is a bit of a gap in class between 4th and 5th, and throw in the travel factor I don't think there is much chance. Adelaide probably the most likely.

 

[FootyJunkie]

Richmond are a huge chance to pull it off this year... been playing well at Subi in recent times, have beaten Sydney in Sydney and Hawthorn, have the benefit of being an MCG side.... still a mighty ask to win 4 finals in a row, but Richmond can do it I reckon if they bring their "A" game

Dogs are good at Docklands, a bit ordinary elsewhere
travel will overwhelm the Crows
don't rate North, too bipolar for my liking