Might this be the year a 5-8 side wins the flag?

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Possible but not anymore likely than any other year. Can't see any of those sides winning 2 finals then going to Perth in week 3, winning that, then having enough in the tank to win the GF.
 
After week 1 there is only two of the 5-8 teams left. Those two remaining teams then have to win away from home to make a PF. Then they have to win away from home playing a team with a weeks rest to make the GF. A huge ask for any team to make a GF from 5th-8th.
 
After week 1 there is only two of the 5-8 teams left. Those two remaining teams then have to win away from home to make a PF. Then they have to win away from home playing a team with a weeks rest to make the GF. A huge ask for any team to make a GF from 5th-8th.

Which is why it has never happened. Was hard enough to do under the old final 5 system, let alone now with interstate travel thrown into the mix. Only side to have ever win 4 finals in a row to win a flag was Adelaide in 1997.
 
It is possible, eg video evidence reviewed later. Do you have a specific example?
I guess the question I'm specifically posing is it possible to correctly (as per the current rule book and interpretation) receive a free kick for having your legs taken out but then get suspended/fined for reckless high contact. I don't think the Walker/McGovern incident exactly qualifies as an example but having arguments on this forum for free kick to walker on one hand verses suspension to walker on the other raises the possibility. Which would go to prove that rule makers and match review panel are at times quite confused as to what is right and wrong on the footy field...
 
Which is why it has never happened. Was hard enough to do under the old final 5 system, let alone now with interstate travel thrown into the mix. Only side to have ever win 4 finals in a row to win a flag was Adelaide in 1997.

The difference between finishing 4th and 5th is huge. Probably too great but what are the other formats that could make it more equal.
 
Discounting Adelaide in the previous finals system of course.

It seems to me that the form lines of the Dogs, North, Richmond and Adelaide are equalling or bettering those of the top 4 at present.

North winning 6 straight including against Fremantle, Adelaide (arguably the most in form team of the comp over the last month) hammering West Coast and Richmond among others, Richmond handing their own beltings out to lesser teams, the Dogs running over the top of North and destroying Port, etc.

Its a bit trite, but this is definitely one of the most even seasons I've ever seen. I think the flag is still Hawthorn's to lose, but these teams ranked 5-8 don't look to be cannon fodder at all and have all been shown to be able to trump the top 4 sides on their days.

We saw two straight sets exits last year: could we be seeing the conventional wisdom regarding the top 4 and flag chances be flipped entirely?

Translation = Does anyone think Richmond can win the flag.
 
A lot depends on what happens in the WC v Haw QF - the teams that finish 5th and 8th might avoid a trip to Perth altogether if the Hawks beat WC (and Freo beat Syd in the other QF). The winner of 5th v 8th would then travel to Syd in week 2 and if they are good enough to win that they would play Haw in a PF at the MCG. Still a bloody hard run although much less travel.
 
If it was just one perth side then maybe,But not both.All goes to plan,Won't have to travel until the GF with a weeks break to boot.Only side to put a spanner in the works is Hawthorn.
Obviously i'd love to see us do it but i think thats a just a bridge to far.Same applies to the other 5-8,s.
 
I'd say that the smart money would be on the top 4 being dominant. But the gap between 1-4 and 5-8 is much less this year than is usual. All of 5-8 can beat any of the 1-4. But, I would expect no 5-8 teams in the Granny. The tigers have the best chance of getting a softish draw in terms of travel if all goes right. But even then I just can't see it. Love it to happen though :cool:

Expect to see Hawks Eagles GF. But wouldn't be at all surprise to see Swans Freo. Is that a fence I am sitting on??? :drunk:

Wide open this year compared to usual.
 
If you look at the ladder, the records between 3rd and 7th are ridiculously close this year. I'd say it's more that missing the double chance is what makes it hard to reach a GF, rather than inherent superiority of the top 4. For this year, at least - in previous years I would have agreed with you.

Said exactly what I was thinking. Everyone states unequivocally that the Grand Final winners come from the top 4 so therefore the H&A season is fine, however you could just as easily argue that the H&A system is flawed, produces flawed top 4's and that the advantage of finishing top 4 is what is getting these teams a winning Grand Final appearance.
 

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Which is why it has never happened. Was hard enough to do under the old final 5 system, let alone now with interstate travel thrown into the mix. Only side to have ever win 4 finals in a row to win a flag was Adelaide in 1997.

What has never happened?

The following: "After week 1 there is only two of thfe 5-8 teams left. Those two remaining teams then have to win away from home to make a PF. Then they have to win away from home playing a team with a weeks rest to make the GF. A huge ask for any team to make a GF from 5th-8th." has indeed happened ... the Crows did exactly this in 1998 when they finished 5th ... they were still in it after week 1, then had to win away to make the PF, then had to win the PF away to make the GF.
 
What has never happened?

The following: "After week 1 there is only two of thfe 5-8 teams left. Those two remaining teams then have to win away from home to make a PF. Then they have to win away from home playing a team with a weeks rest to make the GF. A huge ask for any team to make a GF from 5th-8th." has indeed happened ... the Crows did exactly this in 1998.


Yes, but in a fundamentally different finals system to the one now. I think that the likelihood has diminished massively since then.
 
Yes, but in a fundamentally different finals system to the one now. I think that the likelihood has diminished massively since then.

Not that fundamentally different ... the only difference was in week 1. These days 5th plays at home against 8th in an elimination game. Then 5th played away against 4th in a game wherein a loss could result in elimination but was unlikely to. Swings and roundabouts. After week 1 the finals structure is essentially the same as it was back then.
 
Regarding the OP, answer is no

Tigers ZERO finals credentials
Dogs lack the defence
Crows don't travel well enough
North aren't good enough
 
I'd say it's still incredibly unlikely, the finals system is so heavily geared to favour the top 4.

Having said that, this is about as weak a top 4 as I've seen in a long time.
 
Flogged the first time against Freo- Flogged against Hawks, 10 points against WCE (at home) and less than 20 points against Sydney.

You've beaten the top 2, but results haven't been convincing.
So then we're the only ones to have beaten the top 2?
We've also beaten Richmond.
 
This year seems like one of the least likely years. There is a bit of a gap in class between 4th and 5th, and throw in the travel factor I don't think there is much chance. Adelaide probably the most likely.
Srtrange statement as, tbh, while the gap exists, it is as small as I can remember it and, as a Tiger supporter, I would feel more comfortable facing Sydney then any of the teams in the bottom half.
 
I'd say the Tigers would be the team to do it but I break it down, nahhhh.

Win elimination final.
Play either Freo or Swans
Then either Hawks or Eagles.
Then play either ???

Could also mean two successive away trips if the eagles beat Hawthorn. If the Hawks win well then they'd be in Melbourne for the last two weekends instead of 1.

Melbourne
Perth/Sydney
Perth/Melbourne
Melbourne


Too many games, too many good teams with an extra week to rest unless another team from outside the 4 gets there. Too big a task. But Richmond would have the best shot imo.

Richmond vs Kangas
Richmond vs Freo or Sydney
Richmond vs Hawks or WCE
Richmond vs Freo or Swans you'd think

Whatever way you look at it, too big a hurdle for anyone outside the 4 no matter how things pan out, last round of the season included.
 
While I agree the form of the bottom 4 isn't like usual compared to the top. The simple fact four guaranteed games in Perth make it an absolute no for me.
 
Not that fundamentally different ... the only difference was in week 1. These days 5th plays at home against 8th in an elimination game. Then 5th played away against 4th in a game wherein a loss could result in elimination but was unlikely to. Swings and roundabouts. After week 1 the finals structure is essentially the same as it was back then.
Yes but in week 1 there is actually a huge difference. If the format was like it is now, the Crows would have been gone. There was more margin for error back then, you didn't have to win 4 finals. Like Blues in 99 got poleaxed by the Lions in week 1, 13 goals whatever it was, yet still were allowed to play on and made the grand final. Winning 4 finals obviously is a massive ask and has only been done once by you guys the year before. Not that you didn't deserve it, but you certainly had some luck along the way with the Colbert mark not being paid and the Grant smothered shot in the prelim. Even in 98 you got spanked first up then beat the Roos when they should have been out of sight by half time kicking 6.15 to 4.3. Many teams have won on luck I get that.

Too much needs to go right and things have changed in the format of the system. Doesn't mean it won't happen again, highly unlikely though.
 
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