Preview National Draft discussion (Picks 14, 35, 43, 58)

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Pdub said:
Bickly on 5aa says he thinks we'll take laverde, he doesn't seem like a mock draft reader, you would think he might have a few mates at the club who would give him good info.
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He may have just googled it last night and seen Twomey's mock.
 

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I'll always back our recruiters to get the job done, but one thing that concerned me was a comment by Ogilvie yesterday (or the day before) on 5AA. He said they've got a very complex 'algorithm' (not the word he used but you get the idea) to determine a draft list based on an overall points score. I assume there are many statistical inputs which lead to this final figure.

Now I know all other clubs would be doing the same thing, but I'd be a bit worried if they picked someone purely on stats, no matter how complex the stats and weightings are. Surely watching a player and just seeing what he can do over a course of 10-20 games is more reliable than stats?
 
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MyLittleSloaney said:
I'll always back our recruiters to get the job done, but one thing that concerned me was a comment by Ogilvie yesterday (or the day before) on 5AA. He said they've got a very complex 'algorithm' (not the word he used but you get the idea) to determine a draft list based on an overall points score. I assume there are many statistical inputs which lead to this final figure.

Now I know all other clubs would be doing the same thing, but I'd be a bit worried if they picked someone purely on stats, no matter how complex the stats and weightings are. Surely watching a player and just seeing what he can do over a course of 10-20 games is more reliable than stats?
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You'd get the combo meal and upsize.
 

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MyLittleSloaney said:
I'll always back our recruiters to get the job done, but one thing that concerned me was a comment by Ogilvie yesterday (or the day before) on 5AA. He said they've got a very complex 'algorithm' (not the word he used but you get the idea) to determine a draft list based on an overall points score. I assume there are many statistical inputs which lead to this final figure.

Now I know all other clubs would be doing the same thing, but I'd be a bit worried if they picked someone purely on stats, no matter how complex the stats and weightings are. Surely watching a player and just seeing what he can do over a course of 10-20 games is more reliable than stats?
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Someone mentioned they have some sort of software they use.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-01-24/the-new-moneyball

Not sure if it's this one exactly, but they have one they use for re-signing players and targeting others through trades and free agency.
 
Bailey01 said:
What would you think if that occurred?
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As usual I'd back in our recruiters. There are 4 of them who work full time but not the "full time" we are accustomed to. These guys are OCD and work ridiculous hours to get up and down the country to see as many kids as possible. They find a batch of kids they really like and put heaps of time into them. By the time draft day rolls around they've probably seen the kids on their short list play at least 20 times over the last 2-3 years. They interview the kids exhaustively, and grill their coaches and parents to find out what makes them tick. They assess the kids to find out whether they'll be flight risks, or whether they'll face injury problems down the line, or whether they have the capacity to improve enough to justify a high draft pick.

Now it's all well and good for us to take a liking to certain players, but all we have to go by is a 3 minute video clip, a few combine results and a few mock drafts, some by "experts" and some by amateurs. Now for all we know, we might have had Langford ahead of Lever and Laverde on our pecking order all year? Quayle's phantom draft would suggest that maybe clubs don't rate Laverde as the out-and-out gun we all though he was.

Anyway, just back our recruiters, they've delivered us some gems over the last few years.
 
My perfect draft result would be:
14: Jayden Laverde
35: Dillon Violo-Rainbow
43: Reece McKenzie
58: Nick Jackson

Obviously the rookie draft depends on who is still available but I would expect us to take a ruck man. Otherwise best available.
 
Must say EQ mock is interesting, I feel there will be many twist and turns this year

I want to know who may drift to pick 35
 
MyLittleSloaney said:
As usual I'd back in our recruiters. There are 4 of them who work full time but not the "full time" we are accustomed to. These guys are OCD and work ridiculous hours to get up and down the country to see as many kids as possible. They find a batch of kids they really like and put heaps of time into them. By the time draft day rolls around they've probably seen the kids on their short list play at least 20 times over the last 2-3 years. They interview the kids exhaustively, and grill their coaches and parents to find out what makes them tick. They assess the kids to find out whether they'll be flight risks, or whether they'll face injury problems down the line, or whether they have the capacity to improve enough to justify a high draft pick.

Now it's all well and good for us to take a liking to certain players, but all we have to go by is a 3 minute video clip, a few combine results and a few mock drafts, some by "experts" and some by amateurs. Now for all we know, we might have had Langford ahead of Lever and Laverde on our pecking order all year? Quayle's phantom draft would suggest that maybe clubs don't rate Laverde as the out-and-out gun we all though he was.

Anyway, just back our recruiters, they've delivered us some gems over the last few years.
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I have no other option than to back our recruiters and I will. You were speaking of stats before. Now Philthy is a bit of a stats guru and has asked for some that we're not even thought of at the time. Can you imagine if he asked to have a look at the statistical info that our recruiters were compiling and threw in a few more that they weren't? Then see if some new names cropped up that otherwise weren't being considered. Be interesting if that was the case.
 
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