Preview National Draft discussion (Picks 14, 35, 43, 58)

[spexau]

MacKay is arguably the most disappointing player on our list.

From a hard running line breaker who was BOG in the 2009 semi final, to an average plodder that just does enough to collect his match fee each week.

Hopefully with a better movement patterns and structures he'll find himself in more positions to use his pace and disposal. Time will tell though.

 

[Flip Side]

A month or two ago in a different thread someone - sorry I can't recall who - made the interesting point that perhaps Charlie Cameron could be our version of Brad Hill and be that line-breaking wingman. From my perspective Mackay's stats don't add up - he's a fair way off the mark off of the top-line wingmen in the comp (Hill, Hill, Smith, et al).

I also want to include I50s, rebound 50s, bounces and effective disposal efficiency, as they will be illuminating on how the players are assisting ball movement and covering territory, and using the ball. That will take more time than I had last night. Oh and add Varcoe to the list.

That will provide a more complete statistical picture. Purely on the stats I provided he is not "a fair way off" in mathematical terms.

 

[Golumless]

Yes, it's interesting looking across the AFL at career stats of outside players.

Career Aves
View attachment 88877

Biggest problem with that is it is career stats, which means you tend to include games that are now irrelevant, so games where the player is just finding their feet as a footballer and such. I'd be curious how Mackays stats add up if you only included the last two seasons, reckon there would be a difference between him and someone like Issac Smith.

 

[MRB37]

Biggest problem with that is it is career stats, which means you tend to include games that are now irrelevant, so games where the player is just finding their feet as a footballer and such. I'd be curious how Mackays stats add up if you only included the last two seasons, reckon there would be a difference between him and someone like Issac Smith.

Basically Smith beats him in everything except tackles. Smith has averaged 21 disposals, 5 marks, 3 tackles and almost a goal a game over the past 2 years. Mackay has 17 disposals, 3 marks, almost 4 tackles and half a goal a game over the same period. Smith also has 9 Brownlow votes to Mackays career total of 0.

 

[Mego Red]

Except he doesn't get a tag whereas the dangerous ones do and still average a similar amount of disposals/more.

Really? Not too many on that list getting tagged, and when they have they've completely fallen apart (i.e. both Hill brothers, Polec, etc).

 

[dylan123]

Really? Not too many on that list getting tagged, and when they have they've completely fallen apart (i.e. both Hill brothers, Polec, etc).

The good ones on that list do. They're quite easy to tag out of the game as well for the most part given the role they play, but when they're left on their own they're quite damaging.

The guys I'm talking about: Hill x2, Rioli, Smith, Polec, Jetta, Pearce (Port/Freo) etc. Their stat averages are probably on par with Mackay's without looking at them but they all attract some form of attention from the opposition because of how much they can hurt if they're let loose. I cannot remember the last time I saw Mackay having someone follow him closely and that's because he just doesn't hurt the opposition enough to warrant that kind of respect.

 

[Skippos]

I'd be interested to see how some of the elite running defenders in the comp went if they were played in the aforementioned very outside wingman role - blokes like Smith, Malceski, Birchall etc. - reckon they'd be just as good as the Isaac Smith types in that role.

 

[conVINCEd]

A combination either way of;
Goddard then Drummond
or
Menadue then McDonald

I would be stoked.

I'd love to get Menadue and McDonald. Fills our needs so well, then it's down to development.

Menadue's kicking looks brilliant to me, would just come down to winning enough ball and his body standing up.

 

[matty p]

I'd be interested to see how some of the elite running defenders in the comp went if they were played in the aforementioned very outside wingman role - blokes like Smith, Malceski, Birchall etc. - reckon they'd be just as good as the Isaac Smith types in that role.

We might find out with Brodie Smith in 2015.

 

[Elite Crow]

MacKay is arguably the most disappointing player on our list.

From a hard running line breaker who was BOG in the 2009 semi final, to an average plodder that just does enough to collect his match fee each week.

Are you not watching with your eye?

 

[dylan123]

I'd be interested to see how some of the elite running defenders in the comp went if they were played in the aforementioned very outside wingman role - blokes like Smith, Malceski, Birchall etc. - reckon they'd be just as good as the Isaac Smith types in that role.

I think they'd do quite well, although they'd be slightly different. Smith is a bit of an outlier due to his speed but Malceski and Birchall wouldn't break the lines like you get from your Smith, Jetta etc type but you know the kick would be to advantage 9/10 sorta thing.

These guys push up the ground quite a bit, someone like Birchall is seen past the centre half of the ground quite a bit.

 

[lunacy]

Good god - his disposal is dead set awful in that video !!

He is actually a right footer but in most of the first half of the highlights he's kicking on his left. His technique looks great on both foot, but when he elected to use his preferred right foot his kicking looked a lot better.

 

[Flip Side]

Basically Smith beats him in everything except tackles. Smith has averaged 21 disposals, 5 marks, 3 tackles and almost a goal a game over the past 2 years. Mackay has 17 disposals, 3 marks, almost 4 tackles and half a goal a game over the same period. Smith also has 9 Brownlow votes to Mackays career total of 0.

Comparing Mackay to I.Smith is like comparing Douglas to Ablett, or Walker to Franklin, or Talia to.....well Talia
Ok so ignore the Talia reference.

Statistically I.Smith is the best player in the league by position (outside mid). That Mackay is statistically beaten by him doesn't categorically prove MacKay is crap, just that Smith is better.

Also be interesting to track outside player performance on team success. I would anticipate a correlation between outside players performing well when the team does too, as they are often reliant on being fed the ball. Like forwards, I suggest they need good systems and spacing and team control of the ball to fully flourish. That could be a contributor to the success of I.Smith, Hill x2, Varcoe, and Polec & White this season.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Good post flip side. The raw numbers our inside mids generate stack up well but the actual quality of what they set up... always seems a lot of randomness to our play. Win lots of the footy, slam it forward blindly to some talented forwards who conjure a decent amount of goals using all talent, no system. Our ability to get the ball into the hands of our best ball users? Questionable.

 

[hippyhippy]

really gets back to the point which walsh was pointing out in the interview.. that he will create the game plan which is suitable for the talent available... probably referring to how sando's gameplan was really for geelong and not adelaide.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Except he doesn't get a tag whereas the dangerous ones do and still average a similar amount of disposals/more.

Oh please! From that list, the only one that might cop a tag from time to time is Stephen Hill and maybe, maybe Jetta when he is in red hot form. They rest are role players who provide run and carry for thier team. Mackay stacks up favouraboy against those guys. Sure he disappoints at times but he is no where near as bad as people on this board make him out to be.

 

[Stiffy_18]

http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-09-16/draft-prospect-connor-menadue

LIKE!

I wish we had our second pick in the 20s.

Exciting prospect! Reminds me a lot of Brodie Smith, from the kicking, to side step and even a rangy looking type.

Any chance he last until 35?!

If we get Goddard and this kid, its pants down, lap around the table time!

 

[cammo6556]

Exciting prospect! Reminds me a lot of Brodie Smith, from the kicking, to side step and even a rangy looking type.

Any chance he last until 35?!

If we get Goddard and this kid, its pants down, lap around the table time!

Im no draft expert but no, not with that skillset. Someone will value it higher than 35...

 

[Skippos]

Im no draft expert but no, not with that skillset. Someone will value it higher than 35...

Nailed it.

If Menadue's to be a Crow, it'll be with 14.

 

[Tex200]

Menadue will be on a plane by the time 35 comes around.

 

[Bailey01]

I hope we can the risk with Menadue. You never know he could be a superstar.

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

I hope we can the risk with Menadue. You never know he could be a superstar.

Yep, that is until a new 2 minute highlight video emerges of a speedster with decent skills and you jump on a new bandwagon.

 

[Cap]

Yep, that is until a new 2 minute highlight video emerges of a speedster with decent skills and you jump on a new bandwagon.

Hey but he could be a super star too.....

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

Hey but he could be a super star too.....

The words 'could be' have a lot to answer for on this thread.

 

[Tex200]

The words 'could be' have a lot to answer for on this thread.

Well how does anyone really know?

Isn't it what the thread is for - people to discuss and speculate, have their favourites they would like to see drafted?

None of us know who we will draft, much less who will make it and who won't.

It's just a bit of fun isn't it?