NBA 2014/15

Lensen

You've ruined the act, GOB
Feb 23, 2003
15,030
15,468
Brisbane
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Collingwood
2-1 +0.83
YTD 49-31-1 +15.539

Chicago -3.5 @ $1.90
Oklahoma City/Phoenix UNDER 209.5 @ $1.904
New York/Toronto OVER 199.5 @ $1.90
Denver +3.5 @ $1.912
2-2 -0.196
YTD 51-33-1 +15.343

Philadelphia/Boston OVER 205.5 @ $1.909
LA Lakers +5 @ $1.952
Cleveland -10 @ $1.925
 

Small Moves

Premiership Player
Aug 20, 2013
3,282
2,125
127.0.0.1
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Texans, Texas A&M, Rockets
Looking like another 1-2 play day tomorrow as well.

I'm due for a rough patch, I have gone 25-6 in NFL/NBA first quarter picks in the last two weeks. Hoping my 1Q teams continue to get up..
 

Small Moves

Premiership Player
Aug 20, 2013
3,282
2,125
127.0.0.1
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Texans, Texas A&M, Rockets
Miami +1.5 @ $1.83
Denver +1 @ $1.91

1-0, thought it was all over when Chicago got off to an early run. Miami have been $$$$ lately as well.

2-0, +1.74U.

YTD: 15-4 (+5.591U).

Philadelphia +1.5 @ $1.83
Lakers +1.5 @ $1.86
San Antonio +2.5 @ $1.83
 

Small Moves

Premiership Player
Aug 20, 2013
3,282
2,125
127.0.0.1
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Texans, Texas A&M, Rockets
Philadelphia +1.5 @ $1.83
Lakers +1.5 @ $1.86
San Antonio +2.5 @ $1.83

* sake.. Philadelphia by a small margin, Lakers got absolutely pummelled (wtf) and I don't think San Antonio will be able to do it.

Might look into some second half picks.
 
Gah! Had the Cavs at the 10 point line, and the hornets score in the last few seconds to make the final margin 9 points. Not my day! Need the Spurs B team to pull out a miracle in Portland if I'm gonna salvage anything from it
 

Small Moves

Premiership Player
Aug 20, 2013
3,282
2,125
127.0.0.1
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Texans, Texas A&M, Rockets
**** sake.. Philadelphia by a small margin, Lakers got absolutely pummelled (wtf) and I don't think San Antonio will be able to do it.

Might look into some second half picks.

Lol... Are you ******* kidding me.. Portland score a three pointer with one second to go. Missed by a half point.

0-3 (-3U)

1Q YTD: 15-7 (+2.591U).
 

Lensen

You've ruined the act, GOB
Feb 23, 2003
15,030
15,468
Brisbane
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Collingwood
2-2 -0.196
YTD 51-33-1 +15.343

Philadelphia/Boston OVER 205.5 @ $1.909
LA Lakers +5 @ $1.952
Cleveland -10 @ $1.925
Milwaukee +5.5 @ $1.961
San Antonio +8 @ $1.952 (x1.5)
1-4 -3.539
YTD 52-37-1 +11.804

Washington -13 @ $1.952
Washington/Minnesota OVER 201 @ $1.911
 

Small Moves

Premiership Player
Aug 20, 2013
3,282
2,125
127.0.0.1
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Texans, Texas A&M, Rockets
Not much on tomorrow unfortunately. Looks like the Knicks will be a surprising first quarter play.
 

Lensen

You've ruined the act, GOB
Feb 23, 2003
15,030
15,468
Brisbane
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Collingwood
1-4 -3.539
YTD 52-37-1 +11.804

Washington -13 @ $1.952
Washington/Minnesota OVER 201 @ $1.911
Miami +8 @ $1.909 (x.5)
New Orleans/Utah OVER 196 @ $1.934
Golden State +3 @ $1.934
Memphis/Golden State OVER 202.5 @ $1.90
Sacramento +8 @ $1.916
Sacramento/Oklahoma City UNDER 206 @ $1.918
 

Small Moves

Premiership Player
Aug 20, 2013
3,282
2,125
127.0.0.1
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Texans, Texas A&M, Rockets
so i've actually done some proper investigationing into my NBA picks, and it tells me that NBA lines are running at a loss, but NBA totals are killing it

might just stick to betting totals I reckon

Been fine tuning my system today. Strong picks have been running at 87%, and they make up about 50% of my total picks. Taking away half of my picks results in one play per day as a best case scenario, so I'm going to look into selecting some college basketball teams to base a similar system around. First time I've developed something like this myself so plenty of room for improvement..
 

d3ft

All Australian
Dec 13, 2009
617
311
Sydney
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Been fine tuning my system today. Strong picks have been running at 87%, and they make up about 50% of my total picks. Taking away half of my picks results in one play per day as a best case scenario, so I'm going to look into selecting some college basketball teams to base a similar system around. First time I've developed something like this myself so plenty of room for improvement..
Just keep in mind that 87% is completely unsustainable long term no matter how good your system is. You should be shooting for around 55% to be profitable, maybe a touch higher if you're taking prices below regular handicaps.
 

Small Moves

Premiership Player
Aug 20, 2013
3,282
2,125
127.0.0.1
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Texans, Texas A&M, Rockets
Just keep in mind that 87% is completely unsustainable long term no matter how good your system is. You should be shooting for around 55% to be profitable, maybe a touch higher if you're taking prices below regular handicaps.

I know, there's just absolutely no chance. As I said, the sample size is low and is bound to even out as I make more picks.
 

Lensen

You've ruined the act, GOB
Feb 23, 2003
15,030
15,468
Brisbane
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Collingwood
Miami +8 @ $1.909 (x.5)
New Orleans/Utah OVER 196 @ $1.934
Golden State +3 @ $1.934
Memphis/Golden State OVER 202.5 @ $1.90
Sacramento +8 @ $1.916
Sacramento/Oklahoma City UNDER 206 @ $1.918
4-2 +1.2065
YTD 56-39-1 +13.0105

I'm going to keep posting all bets to track how it goes but am only actually betting the totals. I'll go through the thread at some point and work out the split results and track them independently

Memphis/San Antonio OVER 191 @ $1.90

Atlanta +6 @ $1.92
Dallas -6.5 @ $1.90
Utah +4 @ $1.961
Brooklyn +12.5 @ $1.934
Denver +2.5 @ $1.91
 

Small Moves

Premiership Player
Aug 20, 2013
3,282
2,125
127.0.0.1
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Texans, Texas A&M, Rockets
1Q YTD: 16-8 (+2.541).

Denver +0.5 @ $1.90

Cleveland/Atlanta 1H OVER 96.5 @ $2.00 (x2)
Memphis/San Antonio OVER 193.5 @ $2.00 (x1.5)
Brooklyn +11.5 @ $2.00
 

Lensen

You've ruined the act, GOB
Feb 23, 2003
15,030
15,468
Brisbane
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Collingwood
Went through and did the calcs, currently sitting at
Totals: 32-9 +20.192
Lines: 24-30-1 -7.1815

so of course today looks as though it will have the lines profitable and totals not so :D
 
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