New Senate Poll Ordered For WA

Sep 29, 2008
18,679
9,438
Between the lines.
AFL Club
West Coast
The big parties refused to address the elephant in the room - the GST- and paid the price with large swings against. The PUP made the GST an issue and were rewarded handsomely. The Greens rise was on the back of those who dislike Labor but hate conservatives more.
The current government is not conservative. Hate to break it to you.
 
Jul 1, 2013
21,866
18,249
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Fulham, 76ers, Cubs, Bills
That doesn't really change anything then. Bullock is already elected, so preferencing him lower than Pratt means zero. Greens preferences already flow to the ALP, so that means nothing either.

Sorry I should have been more clear. You are right, for sure.

But what I meant was:
(a) Greens voters are typically more likely to vote BTL
(b) In this election, some of those Green voters who typically vote ATL, may have been induced to vote BTL, to preference Pratt > Bullock.

So the BTL count is likely to feature a higher-than-usual number of Green votes due to the election swing, and an even higher amount due to the extra numbers voting BTL to preference Pratt over Bullock.

This is good for Pratt.
 
Sorry I should have been more clear. You are right, for sure.

But what I meant was:
(a) Greens voters are typically more likely to vote BTL
(b) In this election, some of those Green voters who typically vote ATL, may have been induced to vote BTL, to preference Pratt > Bullock.

So the BTL count is likely to feature a higher-than-usual number of Green votes due to the election swing, and an even higher amount due to the extra numbers voting BTL to preference Pratt over Bullock.

This is good for Pratt.

Pre-polls and postals tend to comfortably favour the Liberals.
 
Jul 1, 2013
21,866
18,249
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Fulham, 76ers, Cubs, Bills

Footy Smarts

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 19, 2006
9,739
17,590
AFL Club
Geelong
Of course. But the BTL is likely to favour Labor, perhaps more comfortably than usual.

Having more BTL votes isn't going to help Labor here. You say that a lot of people might have voted Pratt below the line. But these votes are already counted in the Labor first preference pile so they're already assumed to be with Pratt. Same for people who voted Greens below the line. They're assumed to be Green ticket votes at the moment so they're already going to Pratt.

The only way Pratt gets helped by BTL votes is if somebody has voted BTL for a party that are preferencing the Liberals ahead of Pratt (so the vote is currently assumed to be going to the Liberals) but instead the voter put Pratt above the Liberals. That'll be pretty rare I would've thought. Of course there's also the chance that BTL votes could hurt Pratt with votes currently assumed to be going to her going to the Liberals instead.

The way I see it Pratt's very unlikely to get up. The only way it's likely to happen is if Bullock's comments caused a massive last minute swing away from Labor and the prepolls and postals are much better for Labor than normal. That's a very outside chance though. Unfortunately it looks like Bullock's caused the ALP to miss out on a seat and, in all likelihood, he's the difference between the seats splitting 2,2,1,1 and 3,1,1,1 which we'll have now.
 

Todman

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 7, 2004
8,348
7,175
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Antony Green last night.. Pratt (ALP) falling behind Reynolds (Lib)

The Race for the Final Seat
Date ..............% Counted... Liberal... Labor...Votes.. Quotas
April 6.......... 68.72 ............1.0022.. 0.9978..... 629.. 0.0045
April 8 1pm ...69.18............ 1.0035.. 0.9964 ..1,008.. 0.0071
April 8 10pm .69.35 ............1.0056.. 0.9944.. 1,605.. 0.0113
 
Sorry I should have been more clear. You are right, for sure.

But what I meant was:
(a) Greens voters are typically more likely to vote BTL
(b) In this election, some of those Green voters who typically vote ATL, may have been induced to vote BTL, to preference Pratt > Bullock.

So the BTL count is likely to feature a higher-than-usual number of Green votes due to the election swing, and an even higher amount due to the extra numbers voting BTL to preference Pratt over Bullock.

This is good for Pratt.


On what do you base that assertion?
 
Antony Green last night.. Pratt (ALP) falling behind Reynolds (Lib)

The Race for the Final Seat
Date ..............% Counted... Liberal... Labor...Votes.. Quotas
April 6.......... 68.72 ............1.0022.. 0.9978..... 629.. 0.0045
April 8 1pm ...69.18............ 1.0035.. 0.9964 ..1,008.. 0.0071
April 8 10pm .69.35 ............1.0056.. 0.9944.. 1,605.. 0.0113

He also said that, based on the last election, the Libs tend to draw away after election night.

Still too soon to call, but Libs getting 3 seems the most likely outcome.

Let's pray it's not close enough to require a recount...after last time...*urgh* :)
 
Oct 1, 2006
17,601
3,264
Boom town
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Steelers & Penguins
Oh for sure!

And I suspect a lot of the below the line votes will have people preferencing Pratt over Bullock. i.e. people deliberately voting BTL so they could preference Pratt, meaning the BTL votes are likely to favour the ALP. Plus more Greens supporters vote BTL generally, and they would generally preference ALP>Lib.
I did the exact opposite of that, preferencing Bullock much higher than Pratt. I'm sure there will be some others like that.

I think there will be a lot of people in WA that avoided their usual vote to the Liberals, but still preferenced them above Greens and Labor, who are hated by many here. This is what happened to me and the few of my friends who I know voted BTL.

Not saying it well be the majority, but I don't think BTL will preference Labor and Greens as much as it would elsewhere in the country.
 
Nov 17, 2013
4,911
10,955
Victoria
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Sheffield Wednesday
Oct 1, 2006
17,601
3,264
Boom town
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Steelers & Penguins
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen...nce-flows-at-the-2013-wa-senate-election.html

See the table in the article. 11.5% of Greens votes were from BTL, whereas only 1.2% of Coalition votes and 2.4% of ALP votes were.
It isn't really relevant compared to ALP and Coalition, as first preferences are still in play for them. It is the other minor parties that BTL voting matters for. And even then, only matters at what rate they preference Labor or Liberal earlier. Unfortunately, that table is not clear on that information.
 
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen...nce-flows-at-the-2013-wa-senate-election.html

See the table in the article. 11.5% of Greens votes were from BTL, whereas only 1.2% of Coalition votes and 2.4% of ALP votes were.

Thank you!

I do note however that Anthony Green also responded to a question in another post by saying that BTL votes are already counted.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/04/tracking-the-wa-senate-re-election-count.html
COMMENT: The current tally includes all votes marked above and below the line for a party. If anyone voted with a first preference for Pratt and the vote looks formal, then the vote is already included in the Labor tally.

So the question becomes more about the consistency and difference in preference flows of BTL Vs ATL voters, and it's hard to see enough changing to be particularly relevant. Time will tell though.
 

yibbida

Premiership Player
Oct 5, 2004
3,851
1,237
In a House by the Sea
AFL Club
Carlton
Antony Green last night.. Pratt (ALP) falling behind Reynolds (Lib)

The Race for the Final Seat
Date ..............% Counted... Liberal... Labor...Votes.. Quotas
April 6.......... 68.72 ............1.0022.. 0.9978..... 629.. 0.0045
April 8 1pm ...69.18............ 1.0035.. 0.9964 ..1,008.. 0.0071
April 8 10pm .69.35 ............1.0056.. 0.9944.. 1,605.. 0.0113

his figures are out of date, he must be on holidays or something.

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/ shows that at Wednesday, 09 April 2014 06:33:58 97.92% of polling places have counted first preferences.

Liberal - 33.7%
ALP - 21.82%
Greens - 15.79%
PUP - 12.51%

not sure how that translates to quotas.
 
Back