North or Adelaide?

[Bulldog Brent]

All of a sudden we'll be Norf fans this Friday night!

 

[Bulldog1954]

Looking at the fixture it seems to me that the most likely outcome is Adelaide in Melbourne.

If Richmond beat North on Friday night Adelaide are almost certainly our opponent.

 

[dergert]

Our season starts in two weeks.

 

[wian]

Were Adelaide really that good today, or did west coast tactically throw the game knowing they have the saints next week anyway which will assure them Hawthorn have to travel to Perth in Round 1?

I am sure we threw the game last week against the eagles also...

 

[dergert]

What are the chances of us playing Adelaide over there? That will be a huge task.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

What are the chances of us playing Adelaide over there? That will be a huge task.

Western Bulldogs
56 points (14 wins, seven losses) 116.8 per cent

Rd 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba

If the Bulldogs win next week:
- They finish fourth if the Swans lose to Gold Coast and Richmond loses to North
- They could also finish fourth if the Swans lose and Richmond wins, but only narrowly and they beat the Lions by around 90 points.
- They finish fifth if Swans win and Richmond wins narrowly and they beat the Lions by around 90 points
- They finish sixth if Richmond wins but they don't gather enough percentage to overtake the Tigers

If they lose next week:- They move to fifth if North thrashes Richmond and the Crows lose, provided they are not thrashed themselves
- They finish sixth if Geelong beats Adelaide
- They finish seventh if Adelaide beats Geelong

Predicted finish: Sixth

Predicted final match-up: Western Bulldogs v Adelaide, second elimination final, Etihad Stadium

Adelaide
54 points (13 wins, seven losses, one no result) 119.1 per cent

The run home:
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium

If the Crows win next week:
- They finish fifth if Richmond and Bulldogs both lose
- They finish sixth if Richmond loses and Bulldogs win

If they lose next week:
- They finish seventh if Richmond wins
- They finish eighth if North Melbourne wins

Predicted finish: Seventh

Predicted final match-up: Western Bulldogs v Adelaide, second elimination final, Etihad Stadium

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-30/finals-crystal-ball-doubleheader-shaping-up-for-tigers-roos

 

[gimp!]

What are the chances of us playing Adelaide over there? That will be a huge task.

Richmond need to win, Adelaide need to win, and we need to lose.
Ideally we win, North win, and Adelaide lose so we finish 5th.

 

[dergert]

Gahhh. Next week is important.

 

[bresker]

I think there will be twists and turns to come. Hopefully us losing in Brissie isn't one of them.

 

[JTCWBFC]

If we were to finish 6th and play adelaide and win, I have us playing the loser of WCE and Hawks the following week.

If WCE lost that game would we play them in perth or Melbourne?

 

[HiReception]

If we were to finish 6th and play adelaide and win, I have us playing the loser of WCE and Hawks the following week.

If WCE lost that game would we play them in perth or Melbourne?

Perth. Always the QF winner that hosts.

ETA: Sorry, always the QF loser that hosts.

 

[Zgope1]

If we were to finish 6th and play adelaide and win, I have us playing the loser of WCE and Hawks the following week.

If WCE lost that game would we play them in perth or Melbourne?

In Perth. I'd rather Hawthorn in Melbourne tbh

 

[wian]

Either way its going to be hard. I would love a crack at Adelaide at Ethiad.... Would absolutely love it !!!

 

[dergert]

Where was that dreaded prelim played v Adelaide? I was too busy kicking my cousin's a** at Lego.

 

[wian]

Where was that dreaded prelim played v Adelaide? I was too busy kicking my cousin's a** at Lego.

MCG - I am confident this time around it will be a different story....

 

[MYOB]

Looking at the big picture, if the dogs are to play in a prelim, you want it to be in Melbourne. There is only one way that can happen and that is for Hawthorn to beat the Eagles in week 1. They will then host the prelim.

For the dogs to play Hawthorn in a prelim, they have to finish 5th (or 8th), win week 1, then go to either Freo or Swans in week 2.

While we are really only concerned about the Dogs, it would be great for Tigers to drop to 7th and have to go to Adelaide for the 2nd year in a row.
That will happen if Dogs win, North beat Tigers and Crows beat Cats.

 

[VL3OJ]

I would almost be happy if we lost to the Bo Boo Bears ... so I could send Collo a freshly painted navy blue wooden spoon.

 

[JJHunter]

Did all the combinations and think this may be helpful to see the likely outcomes.

- Assumes that Swans beat Suns
- Doesn't take into account any large percentage changes.

If North win Friday night guarantees we wont go to Adelaide.
If North lose Friday night it guarantees we play Adelaide - just a matter of where as to whether we win or lose ourselves.

 

[Tommycash]

Adelaide were pretty hot against the Eagles. I really want to finish 5th though. The chance of playing Swans/Dockers in week 2 is so much more attractive than either of the Eagles or Hawthorn. Two teams that have our measure I would think.

 

[ExRoyboy]

Adelaide were pretty hot against the Eagles. I really want to finish 5th though. The chance of playing Swans/Dockers in week 2 is so much more attractive than either of the Eagles or Hawthorn. Two teams that have our measure I would think.

To be honest, I like our chances against any of the teams outside the top 4 so long as we don't have to play the Crows in Adelaide. I think at Etihad, as well as they are playing, we are also playing just as good on our home deck. North and Richmond shouldn't hold any fears for our guys either. Therefore you are correct that the thing we would want most is to finish 5th. Therefore barrack as hard as you can for Norf to win on Friday or even if it is just to limit the percentage gap and then give our boys a chance to wallop Brisbane and get into 5th. Finishing any higher than this is a pipe dream as there is no way Sydney will drop a game against the Suns.

 

[Dazb86]

Adelaide are on a mission.

 

[Tigerandy63]

Adelaide, because we will get Ethiad. Richmond because they don't have a single player on their list who has ever won a final.

Are you taking bets on that? The answer is 4, Ivan Maric, Troy Chaplin, Taylor Hunt & Chris Knights. Do your research man.

 

[MJ_Dogs]

Assuming we win:

Basically, if Tigers win friday night, we play Adelaide at Etihad

If Tigers lose then:
If Adelaide win, we will play North at the G
If Adelaide lose, we will play Adelaide at Etihad

So odds are Adelaide at Etihad

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Wrong! Ivan Maric, Troy Chaplin, Taylor Hunt & Chris Knights. Do your research man.

Chris Knights doesn't count any longer, he retired the other week.

Are there only those names at Richmond? I ask because if so, we actually have more players with finals experience:

Murphy, M.Boyd, Morris, Picken, Grant, Wood, Biggs, Minson

 

[Tigerandy63]

Yes you do

Chris Knights doesn't count any longer, he retired the other week.

Are there only those names at Richmond? I ask because if so, we actually have more players with finals experience:

Murphy, M.Boyd, Morris, Picken, Grant, Wood, Biggs, Minson

Yes you do, but the statement was, no player on the list has EVER WON a final.