iluvparis
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Better late than never.
October Daily Punt
- Thread starter iluvparis
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I'll give the barren October thread a bit of life! A couple I like at big odds, plus a fave tomorrow at Caulfield are:
R1 - Rawnaq @ 51/15 - Gets out to a suitable distance, very speculative but ran well over a distance and at a track that I didn't think would suit first up. Sneaky chance to get a place. Gone a 0.5/1.5 each way on this.
R6 - Al Aneed @ 61/17 - Can't believe the odds that have come up for this one. First run since being gelded beat Taddei Tondo (second to Hosting on Saturday) and The Quarterback (a horse I rate massively). Think this will come in prerace and I believe it is more a 17.00-21.00 chance than a 61.00 chance. Has run well in very good company before, taking a 1/3 each way on this.
R5 - Eloping @ 3.00 - For fear of mozzing her, I think she just wins this. Destroyed Tawteen who ran 2nd to Earthquake on Saturday, is a very tough leader so will make her own luck. Earthquake would be about 1.25 in this field, so happy to have a decent go at her. 5 on this one.
Edit: these are all at bet365
R1 - Rawnaq @ 51/15 - Gets out to a suitable distance, very speculative but ran well over a distance and at a track that I didn't think would suit first up. Sneaky chance to get a place. Gone a 0.5/1.5 each way on this.
R6 - Al Aneed @ 61/17 - Can't believe the odds that have come up for this one. First run since being gelded beat Taddei Tondo (second to Hosting on Saturday) and The Quarterback (a horse I rate massively). Think this will come in prerace and I believe it is more a 17.00-21.00 chance than a 61.00 chance. Has run well in very good company before, taking a 1/3 each way on this.
R5 - Eloping @ 3.00 - For fear of mozzing her, I think she just wins this. Destroyed Tawteen who ran 2nd to Earthquake on Saturday, is a very tough leader so will make her own luck. Earthquake would be about 1.25 in this field, so happy to have a decent go at her. 5 on this one.
Edit: these are all at bet365
A11dAtP0w3R
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- Oct 18, 2013
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Agree with Rawnaq overs.
Al Aneed Scratched.
Beware of Eloping's race, think its a trap, Tudor drawn the inside, also a very fast horse. Supido's first run was outstanding and Husson Eagle has a bit of talent, can see one of them getting over top TBH.
Gutted with the Al Aneed scratching, came in to 14.00/4.00 before it came through.
Good points RE: Eloping, I'm a massive fan of the horse itself so emotion may have played some part in the outlay there. Do think it is the best horse in the race, whether that translates into a win we shall see.
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
- Oct 18, 2013
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Yep, good spot with AA odds, only recently joined 365 myself but from what I've seen it appears they give pretty competitive odds and are slow to (or maybe they dont care) moving them in
Their early markets are thr way to go, plenty of value especially in the place markets. Generally a few crackers there. Apparently they are quick to ban, but I'm a small time mug punter so haven't had any issues
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
- Oct 18, 2013
- 89,103
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My recent balance sheet at Ladbrokes will keep any ban worthy bets at bay.
Amazing how bad my bets are running there.
I am also on the Rawnaq bandwagon, happy to see a few others agree with me. Carried mine first up and I thought it ran pretty handy and hit the line well when it looked like it was in trouble before the turn. Should be fitter for the run and will appreciate the trip
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
- Oct 18, 2013
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AHHHH YEAHHHH!!!!!!
rideclutch
Norm Smith Medallist
* look at these blokes, just casually opening the day with 50-1 winners
Nice tipping
Nice tipping
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
- Oct 18, 2013
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- Melbourne
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- Carolina Panthers
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
- Oct 18, 2013
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Michael Walker goina be in deep deep s**t for that effort with 20m to go on Arctic Song
Not as much as Oliver for his slaughter job the race before it
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
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Ahhh talking through the pocket, no you're wrong
Don't give me that cliche bullshit excuse for calling a ride bad, he ran into 3 other horses and completely blew the race
A11dAtP0w3R
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You had a fair bit on it didn't you?
I didn't say he didn't ride badly, but thats what happens when you back a run on horse, sometimes you dont get the breaks or the jockey goes for the wrong run. Harden up princess.
As for the whole point of this, you said Oliver's actions in this race were worse than Walkers in the last, which they clearly weren't, hence my 'talking through your pocket' jib at you. When the suspension comes through you will see Mr Bailey agrees with me.
Jeez I wish I took it now! Let's just say I'm buying dinner and beers tonight, made a s**t day at work a lot better! Very nice fillup and hope you blokes got a bit out of it
If you must know I put $10 on it for the sake of the other 3 favourites were wet trackers on a good track, hardly worth talking through the pocket over is it?You had a fair bit on it didn't you?
I didn't say he didn't ride badly, but thats what happens when you back a run on horse, sometimes you dont get the breaks or the jockey goes for the wrong run. Harden up princess.
As for the whole point of this, you said Oliver's actions in this race were worse than Walkers in the last, which they clearly weren't, hence my 'talking through your pocket' jib at you. When the suspension comes through you will see Mr Bailey agrees with me.
Regardless I only brought it up in response to your suggestion Walker was in trouble, he rode a perfect race bar the last 10-20m. He stopped whipping with what? 10m to go, the horse doesn't lose momentum that quickly the other horse was simply travelling better. It looks bad on a slow motion replay that's about it.
Oliver on the other hand was a complete amateur ride, when you have a horse that comes from behind you push wide to get out maybe lose a length or 2 round the turn but never ever ever try and stay 3 back on the fence hoping for a gap because it will not happen. He cost that horse all its momentum on more then one occasion and was well held up and I can guarantee you he wouldn't be getting back on next start.
As an owner nothing shits you more then a jockey not giving the horse a chance, Walker did and Oliver didn't.
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