Confirmed Official list changes 2014-15

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OK, think I've got all the trades and draft picks updated. Let me know if there's any anomalies in there.

Will try to work out how many list spaces clubs will have and so how many live picks they'll use.

This is up-to-date I think:

https://www.draftguru.com.au/lists/2015

Though it considers all the father-sons and academy selections already on the lists. Taking that into account and the minimum being 3 picks:

Adelaide 37 = 3 picks
Brisbane 33 = 7 picks
Carlton 35 = 5 picks
Collingwood 37 = 3 picks
Essendon 41 = 3 picks (4 still to go from the list)
Fremantle 38 = 3 picks (1 still to go from the list)
Geelong 37 = 3 picks
Gold Coast 33 = 7 picks
GWS 40 = 10 picks (max list of 50 next year)
Hawthorn 36 = 4 picks
Melbourne 38 = 3 picks (1 still to go from the list)
North Melbourne 42 = 3 picks (5 still to go from the list)
Port Adelaide 38 = 3 picks (1 still to go from the list)
Richmond 34 = 6 picks
St Kilda 35 = 5 picks
Sydney 34 = 7 picks
West Coast 37 = 3 picks
Western Bulldogs 34 = 6 picks

Does that look about right? So currently there would be 84 live picks.

A bunch still to be delisted from North and Essendon.
 

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Thats not quite accurate as geelong have 3 slots but have committed to upgrading blicavs so we'll only have 2 live picks

Geelong have got six going out (Burbury, Hunt, Schroder, Stringer, Christensen, Varcoe) and two coming in (Clark, Stanley). That leaves four spots. Adding the Blicavs promotion still leaves three spots to fill, doesn't it?
 
Adelaide
Starting list: 40
Out: 7 (Rutten, Porps, McKernan, Graham, Petrenko, Johnston, Thompson)
In: 3 (Lowden, Cheney, Cameron)
Live ND picks: 4 (+ 1 RP) - 14, 35, 43, 59 (86, 104)

Brisbane

Starting list: 40
Out: 9 (Brown, McGrath, Moloney, Patfull, Crisp, Lisle, Polkinghorne, Raines, Wearden)
In: 2 (Beams, Christensen)
Live ND picks: 7 - 44 (Dawson), 63 (Andrews), 67, 81, 99, 117, 135 (Clayton)

Carlton
Starting list: 38
Out: 9 (Duigan, Bootsma, Garlett, Waite, McInnes, Temay, Robinson, Lucas, McLean)
In: 3 (Jaksch, Whiley, Jones)
Live ND picks: 8 - 19, 28, 61, 65, 79, 101, 119, 137 (*one likely to be left for Tutt in PSD)

Collingwood
Starting list: 39
Out: 6 (Ball, Maxwell, Lynch, Clarke, Beams, Lumumba)
In: 4 (Greenwood, Varcoe, Crisp, Frost)
Live ND picks: 3 (+ 1 RP) - 5, 9 (Moore), 30, (48, 85, 103)

Essendon
Starting list: 40
Out: 4 (Ryder, Jetta, Hardingham, Gregory)
In: 4 (Cooney, Giles, Gwilt, Ambrose)
Live ND picks: 0 (+ 1 RP) - (17, 20, 62, 71, 89, 107) (*need to delist at least 2 more players to have 2 live picks)

Fremantle
Starting list: 40
Out: 3 (Bradley, Gumby, Simpson)
In: 0
Live ND picks: 3 - 13, 34, 54 (72, 90, 108)

Geelong
Starting list: 40
Out: 8 (Christensen, Varcoe, Burbury, Schroder, Stringer, Hunt, Brown, Hamling)
In: 3 (Clark, Stanley, Blicavs)
Live ND picks: 5 (+ 1 RP) - 10, 47, 55, 60, 73 (91, 109)

Gold Coast
Starting list: 40
Out: 8 (Brown, Bock, Murphy, Hunt, Warnock, Taylor, Allen, Hutchins)
In: 2 (Malceski, Hallahan)
Live ND picks: 6 - 8, 15, 29, 66, 84, 102

GWS Giants
Starting list: 46
Out: 8 (Hunt, Gilham, Boyd, Giles, Frost, O'Rourke, Jaksch, Whiley)
In: 2 (Griffen, Patfull)
Live ND picks: 8 - 4, 6, 7, 23, 24 (Steele), 80, 98, 116 (Finlayson) - (*allowed list of 48)

Hawthorn
Starting list: 40
Out: 6 (Sewell, Garlett, Lowden, Cheney, Hallahan, Kelly)
In: 2 (Frawley, O'Rourke)
Live ND picks: 4 - 31, 49, 50, 68 (77, 95, 113)

Melbourne
Starting list: 40
Out: 7 (Byrnes, Frawley, Clarke, Clisby, Nicholson, Blease, Strauss)
In: 4 (Lumumba, Garlett, Frost, Jetta)
Live ND picks: 3 (+ 1 RP) - 2, 3, 40 (42 (Stretch), 53, 83, 97)

North Melbourne
Starting list: 40
Out: 1 (Greenwood)
In: 3 (Waite, Higgins, Tippett)
Live ND picks: 0 (+ 1 RP) - (16, 25, 36, 56, 74, 92, 110) (*need to make at least 4 delistings)

Port Adelaide
Starting list: 40
Out: 6 (Cassisi, Heath, Hitchcock, Stevenson, Newton, Logan)
In: 2 (Ryder, Mitchell)
Live ND picks: 4 (+ 1 RP) - 57, 75, 93, 111

Richmond

Starting list: 38
Out: 5 (Jackson, King, Edwards, Helbig, O'Hanlon)
In: 1 (Miles)
Live ND picks: 6 (+ 1 RP) - 12, 33, 52, 70, 88, 106

St Kilda

Starting list: 40
Out: 7 (Hayes, Maister, Gwilt, Stanley, Jones, Dennis-Lane, Dunell)
In: 3 (Minchington, Shenton, Templeton)
Live ND picks: 4 (+ 3 RP) - 1, 21, 22, 41, (78, 96) (*1 likely to be left for Membrey in PSD)

Sydney
Starting list: 38
Out: 8 (O'Keefe, LRT, Walsh, Malceski, Biggs, Lockyer, Dick, Membrey)
In: 3 (Lloyd, XRichards, Robinson)
Live ND picks: 7 (+ 3 RP) - 18 (Heeney), 37, 38 (Hiscox), 58, 76 (Davis), 94, 112

West Coast

Starting list: 40
Out: 4 (Cox, Glass, Brennan, Smith)
In: 1 (Sinclair)
Live ND picks: 3 (+ 1 RP) - 11, 32, 51 (69, 87, 105 (last to be used on Waterman))

Western Bulldogs

Starting list: 40
Out: 10 (Gia, Williams, Griffen, Cooney, Higgins, Jones, Goodes, Howard, Young, Tutt)
In: 3 (Boyd, Biggs, Jong)
Live ND picks: 7 (+ 1 RP) - 26, 27, 39, 45, 46, 64 (Cordy), 82 (100)
 
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GWS Giants
Starting list: 46
Out: 8 (Hunt, Gilham, Boyd, Giles, Frost, O'Rourke, Jaksch, Whiley)
In: 2 (Griffen, Patfull)
Live ND picks: 4 - 4, 6, 7, 23, 24 (Steele), (80 (Finlayson)) - (*believe GWS required to cut list to 44, if so they need to make 1 more delisting)

Wikipedia suggests the GWS list this year is still 48? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Western_Sydney_Giants#Establishment_support

According to that it's 2019 before they get back to normal size.

St Kilda
Starting list: 40
Out: 6 (Hayes, Maister, Gwilt, Jones, Dennis-Lane, Dunell)
In: 4 (Minchington, Shenton, Templeton, Weller)
Live ND picks: 2 (+ 4 RP) - 1, 21, (22, 41, 78, 96) (*1 likely to be left for Membrey in PSD)

Weller's not a promotion yet:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-10-17/saints-want-membrey-early

"They will finalise whether Weller starts next season on the senior list or as a nominated rookie in the coming weeks."
 
Five Strings, Sydney upgraded Robinson a few days ago so they have two uncommited picks at the ND although their supporters believe they will only use their first pick and pass on the late 50s one. Think that leaves them with 38 but a heap of rookie vacancies, four maybe? as the upgraded three and traded out Biggs from their rookie list.

Going forward, I don't think GWS will run as many seniors as they are allowed, even with their extra salary cap they are already right on the limit and will have quite a number of players coming off contract end of 2015 wanting more money. They would really want to be tapering down the excessive payments to Scully, Davis etc. Every chance they could be down to 40 within two years. Be very interesting to watch how things go at GWS.
 
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Five Strings, Sydney upgraded Robinson a few days ago so they have two uncommited picks at the ND although their supporters believe they will only use their first pick and pass on the late 50s one. Think that leaves them with 38 but a heap of rookie vacancies, four maybe? as the upgraded three and traded out Biggs from their rookie list.

Going forward, I don't think GWS will run as many seniors as they are allowed, even with their extra salary cap they are already right on the limit and will have quite a number of players coming off contract end of 2015 wanting more money. They would really want to be tapering down the excessive payments to Scully, Davis etc. Every chance they could be down to 40 within two years. Be very interesting to watch how things go at GWS.

Tapering down is already done - Scully, etc, got a huge chunk of their payments in the first two years when GWS knew they'd only have draftees making up the rest of the list. They're all on relatively normal wages for the rest of their contracts.
 

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Going forward, I don't think GWS will run as many seniors as they are allowed, even with their extra salary cap they are already right on the limit and will have quite a number of players coming off contract end of 2015 wanting more money. They would really want to be tapering down the excessive payments to Scully, Davis etc. Every chance they could be down to 40 within two years. Be very interesting to watch how things go at GWS.

Yeah thats right. I suspect they will go with 42-44 and possibly two on the rookie list.
 
Yeah thats right. I suspect they will go with 42-44 and possibly two on the rookie list.
Not possible without further delistments, a lot of delistments.

Right now if they want to get back to 46 players they'd be using #23 as their last live pick. That looks like the most logical conclusion to me.

FiveStrings I've looked over your list, I think only mistakes I see is Melbourne needing 1 minimum delisting instead of 2 delistings? Not sure on rules where they're combined but it's 2 live + 1 rookie selection minimum (three list changes), and I think for the AFL that Stretch would count as live? If not then yeah, 2 more delisting but looking at the picks they got, I think 3 may be more likely so 40 can become a live pick.

Also Bulldogs have 118 which should be in brackets. Especially if their list stays like it is with Tutt going, #82 becomes a live pick and #100 becomes Jong upgrade, so going deep.

Which sounds high, but if we assume Brisbane want a full 40 players as well (combined with a few more assumptions at this stage), then what we're looking at is it'll be the second-last live pick taken and only the 54th player (out of 55). Crazy!

It's likely a by-product of the high number of academy selections, or a case of recruiters not rating the depth of the draft pool.
 
Not possible without further delistments, a lot of delistments.

Right now if they want to get back to 46 players they'd be using #23 as their last live pick. That looks like the most logical conclusion to me.

FiveStrings I've looked over your list, I think only mistakes I see is Melbourne needing 1 minimum delisting instead of 2 delistings? Not sure on rules where they're combined but it's 2 live + 1 rookie selection minimum (three list changes), and I think for the AFL that Stretch would count as live? If not then yeah, 2 more delisting but looking at the picks they got, I think 3 may be more likely so 40 can become a live pick.

Also Bulldogs have 118 which should be in brackets. Especially if their list stays like it is with Tutt going, #82 becomes a live pick and #100 becomes Jong upgrade, so going deep.

Which sounds high, but if we assume Brisbane want a full 40 players as well (combined with a few more assumptions at this stage), then what we're looking at is it'll be the second-last live pick taken and only the 54th player (out of 55). Crazy!

It's likely a by-product of the high number of academy selections, or a case of recruiters not rating the depth of the draft pool.

There is a few still to go from that list i would think.
 
There is a few still to go from that list i would think.

Yep. I listed the clubs that have to make further cuts but they won't be the only ones. For example West Coast will delist at least one more guy, probably two, maybe even three.
 
So do the rookie promotions
Sort of.

Teams are allowed to do two picks (including f/s & a) plus one rookie upgrade, but a team can't do its minimum three list changes with only one or none live pick and two/three rookie upgrades.

2+1= Ok
1+2= No
0+3= No
2+2= Ok
 

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