Analysis Pass mark for 2015

[Red Black and Blue]

We need a lot going right to be top 4. Significant improvement in the forward line and moderate improvement in the midfield would be required. Can't see it happening without improvement from unexpected sources.

 

[hurlygurdy]

We need a lot going right to be top 4. Significant improvement in the forward line and moderate improvement in the midfield would be required. Can't see it happening without improvement from unexpected sources.

But see they are not unexpected are they? Carlisle, JD up forward does the trick. Heppell (naturally), Merrett(s), Myers, Colyer... It would be more surprising to see these sorts of players not improving. Of course we will probably be blown apart by injuries, but if not then surely we will give it a shake?

 

[eth-dog]

We need a lot going right to be top 4. Significant improvement in the forward line and moderate improvement in the midfield would be required. Can't see it happening without improvement from unexpected sources.

Going by differential stats, our midfield is top 6 standard. Which is good enough for top 4. Our forward line is bottom 6 standard though and requires a massive improvement.

But see they are not unexpected are they? Carlisle, JD up forward does the trick. Heppell (naturally), Merrett(s), Myers, Colyer... It would be more surprising to see these sorts of players not improving. Of course we will probably be blown apart by injuries, but if not then surely we will give it a shake?

Overrating our players again. Our forward line was one of the worst last year. Two players don't improve THAT much over 1 year to take it from mediocre at best to a good forward line.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Going by differential stats, our midfield is top 6 standard. Which is good enough for top 4. Our forward line is bottom 6 standard though and requires a massive improvement.

Offensively we are good, but defensively we are well down. Not talking about tackling either, as most tackling happens inside the contest these days, talking about defensive running/transitioning which lost us the St.Kilda, Hawthorn, North, Dees, Cats, Tigers, Pies games. Watson, Goddard, Chapman, Zaha, Melksham, and to a lesser extent Heppell and Stanton and depending on his health Cooney as well, either aren't capable through stamina or smarts .

Also we're not physical enough at the contest to wear teams down like Sydney/Cats do.

 

[eth-dog]

Offensively we are good, but defensively we are well down. Not talking about tackling either, as most tackling happens inside the contest these days, talking about defensive running/transitioning which lost us the St.Kilda, Hawthorn, North, Dees, Cats, Tigers, Pies games. Watson, Goddard, Chapman, Zaha, Melksham, and to a lesser extent Heppell and Stanton and depending on his health Cooney as well, either aren't capable through stamina or smarts .

Also we're not physical enough at the contest to wear teams down like Sydney/Cats do.

Defensively at the contest we were excellent, 2nd least clearances conceded on average. Also what lost us the game vs Melbourne was our goal kicking.

The cats midfield was terrible at the contest this season.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Defensively at the contest we were excellent, 2nd least clearances conceded on average. Also what lost us the game vs Melbourne was our goal kicking.

The cats midfield was terrible at the contest this season.

Cats don't bat deep with the inside muscle but pound for pound Selwood and Caddy would be right up amongst the best. You don't need many when they are great at it. Hayes single handedly broke Collingwood's midfield in the first grand final.

The clearance differential will be interesting this year, as Ryder was a big reason for our success in close. Wasn't the best at winning tap outs but probably the best at limiting the quality of the opposition with his body work and follow up.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Going by differential stats, our midfield is top 6 standard. Which is good enough for top 4. Our forward line is bottom 6 standard though and requires a massive improvement.

Overrating our players again. Our forward line was one of the worst last year. Two players don't improve THAT much over 1 year to take it from mediocre at best to a good forward line.

I think it is the flow on effect from the top down that makes the massive change. We got no benefit from the likes of Goddard and Licka last year, seemingly because the opposition could get extra numbers to every contest. If both our key forwards demand extra attention then Licka and Goddard should be able to get one out in space more often. That changes matters. And i don't think anyone questions whether Licka and Goddard are good forwards do they?

 

[BrunoV]

Defensively at the contest we were excellent, 2nd least clearances conceded on average. Also what lost us the game vs Melbourne was our goal kicking.

The cats midfield was terrible at the contest this season.

As in almost everything, the test will be if we can combine defence and offence. To date we've not done it. When the offensive numbers are good the defensive numbers are poor and vice versa.

 

[eth-dog]

I think it is the flow on effect from the top down that makes the massive change. We got no benefit from the likes of Goddard and Licka last year, seemingly because the opposition could get extra numbers to every contest. If both our key forwards demand extra attention then Licka and Goddard should be able to get one out in space more often. That changes matters. And i don't think anyone questions whether Licka and Goddard are good forwards do they?

It still doesn't improve us that much. All that would get you is maybe an extra 2 goals a game, not much more.

As in almost everything, the test will be if we can combine defence and offence. To date we've not done it. When the offensive numbers are good the defensive numbers are poor and vice versa.

Yep. I think having one or two players inside 50 at all times would really benefit our structures, if we maintain the same defensive gameplan. That way we can slingshot from defence and know that we'll definitely have a player inside 50.

 

[hurlygurdy]

It still doesn't improve us that much. All that would get you is maybe an extra 2 goals a game, not much more.


Yep. I think having one or two players inside 50 at all times would really benefit our structures, if we maintain the same defensive gameplan. That way we can slingshot from defence and know that we'll definitely have a player inside 50.

I'm expecting an extra 1.5+ goals from Jake and JD, plus the flow on effect should amount to another 1.5+ goals a game from the rest combined. Thats enough to make us top four all other things being equal. It would have meant 5 extra wins last season, not that i see it that way of course.
I know it probably wont turn out this way, but i just can't see how it isn't pretty logical? Our forward line just hasn't put other the teams defence under enough pressure. When they start really worrying about Jake and JD everything will change...

 

[Halftimehero]

I'm expecting an extra 1.5+ goals from Jake and JD, plus the flow on effect should amount to another 1.5+ goals a game from the rest combined. Thats enough to make us top four all other things being equal. It would have meant 5 extra wins last season, not that i see it that way of course.
I know it probably wont turn out this way, but i just can't see how it isn't pretty logical? Our forward line just hasn't put other the teams defence under enough pressure. When they start really worrying about Jake and JD everything will change...

I agree with the flow on effect, it isn't just a matter of adding more goals to our score by having a better forward line. Having two dangerous key forwards puts pressure on the opposition and takes the focus off our other forwards which then puts pressure onto the opposition midfielders who will suddenly be more defensive minded. We will need Ambrose to develop into a really good third forward and I think he will be the one who benefits the most from having two key marking forwards. Ultimately the whole team should benefit all over the ground from having a better forward line, it creates confidence that when going forward there will be targets to kick too and it wont just come straight back out and down the other end, this will enable to the HBFs to be more daring and creative with the ball through the middle without having to worry about the ball being slung shot back over there heads.

 

[BrunoV]

It still doesn't improve us that much. All that would get you is maybe an extra 2 goals a game, not much more.


Yep. I think having one or two players inside 50 at all times would really benefit our structures, if we maintain the same defensive gameplan. That way we can slingshot from defence and know that we'll definitely have a player inside 50.

While I think that having a few (almost mature) pillars around which we can structure a forwardline is important a lot of it comes back to midfield stodge. We're still only competitive in close because we get a lot of numbers around the ball to clog up space.

Problem is it doesn't always work and you don't get maximum value for players.

We really struggle to control GC and Richmond, two of the most dynamic clearance teams, in close for worrying phases of games (despite the ultimate result).

 

[hurlygurdy]

Was just thinking about a different take on what we want for the future of this team. Mostly what we consider right now is what it would take to go to the next level and be top four. Sure that would be a great start, but what would it take for this team to actually be dominant and win multiple premierships?
It brings a new level of harshness to a critique of the players and this is what occurred to me;
Back line (overall not far off);
1. We lack a long term fletcher replacement.
2. Hurley would need to go to the next level (which i think he will)
3. Ashby, Gleeson or Dalgleish would have to become elite and act as a Dempsey upgrade (too inconsistent)

Midfield (two or three vital steps to take at least);
1. We need an upgrade on Stanton (very good footballer, but not dominant enough for an elite side).
2. Zaka needs to find greater consistency or a better defensive side to his game. One or the other would be enough.
3. Myers needs to take another genuine step up which is a possibility that hangs in the balance at the moment i think.
4. Zach needs to fast track on the path to become the star that he looks destined to be.
5. Players like Howlett and Stanton need to stick around and be satisfied to act as depth.
6. We need one of Colyer/Gleeson/Jackson/Dalgleish/Browne to become elite in the next few years, and probably two more to provide really good depth.
7. One of TBC or Giles needs to take another step up.
8. We need our older players to hold form in their early to mid 30's.

Forward (unknown quantity at this point);
1. Obviously Carlisle and JD need to become what they look like becoming.
2. We need one or two of our promising faster mids like Colyer, Zach, Kommer or Jackson to double as top quality small crumbing forwards.
3. If Ambrose took another big step up he would be an ideal fit for an elite forward line.

Overall it's a long shot, and i suspect that while our depth is looking better right now, it would need to be a lot better again for the side to become really dominant. I think what will hold us back is players like Myers/Ambrose becoming very good, but not ever quite achieving the elite level that we would need, or being as consistent as we would need. I also suspect that the positive things that do happen probably wont happen quickly enough before the older players start losing form.
On the other hand, if we strike it really lucky with the developing players and we have a couple of them come on really quickly, then you could get a bit excited at least

 

[BrunoV]

Was just thinking about a different take on what we want for the future of this team. Mostly what we consider right now is what it would take to go to the next level and be top four. Sure that would be a great start, but what would it take for this team to actually be dominant and win multiple premierships?
It brings a new level of harshness to a critique of the players and this is what occurred to me;
Back line (overall not far off);
1. We lack a long term fletcher replacement.
2. Hurley would need to go to the next level (which i think he will)
3. Ashby, Gleeson or Dalgleish would have to become elite and act as a Dempsey upgrade (too inconsistent)

Midfield (two or three vital steps to take at least);
1. We need an upgrade on Stanton (very good footballer, but not dominant enough for an elite side).
2. Zaka needs to find greater consistency or a better defensive side to his game. One or the other would be enough.
3. Myers needs to take another genuine step up which is a possibility that hangs in the balance at the moment i think.
4. Zach needs to fast track on the path to become the star that he looks destined to be.
5. Players like Howlett and Stanton need to stick around and be satisfied to act as depth.
6. We need one of Colyer/Gleeson/Jackson/Dalgleish/Browne to become elite in the next few years, and probably two more to provide really good depth.
7. One of TBC or Giles needs to take another step up.
8. We need our older players to hold form in their early to mid 30's.

Forward (unknown quantity at this point);
1. Obviously Carlisle and JD need to become what they look like becoming.
2. We need one or two of our promising faster mids like Colyer, Zach, Kommer or Jackson to double as top quality small crumbing forwards.
3. If Ambrose took another big step up he would be an ideal fit for an elite forward line.

Overall it's a long shot, and i suspect that while our depth is looking better right now, it would need to be a lot better again for the side to become really dominant. I think what will hold us back is players like Myers/Ambrose becoming very good, but not ever quite achieving the elite level that we would need, or being as consistent as we would need. I also suspect that the positive things that do happen probably wont happen quickly enough before the older players start losing form.
On the other hand, if we strike it really lucky with the developing players and we have a couple of them come on really quickly, then you could get a bit excited at least

Stanton is absolutely good enough. The question is whether he fits into our side given that every one of his flaws is reflected by the current midfield (he's not the only one). I think it is fair to say that you can't hope to have sustained excellence if your midfield is not set to match the way the game is played.

I'm actually looking at a team from about 2017 as one which is capable of a prolonged period of excellence of the sort enjoyed by the current Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney teams (whether it is enough in light of the potential juggernauts at GC and GWS only time will tell).

Natural attrition will correct the balance of the side in terms of its physical capabilities. I also look at the younger generation as being a lot smarter and reflecting the football intelligence of players in teams like EFC 2000 and Hawthorn and Geelong in particular (much of which I think is related to their being developed from 2011 rather than the remnants of the shambles that occurred previously).


As far as expectations for this year, I'm getting worried. As much as a 'pass mark' should be linked to the experience of the team that will be playing I am starting to wonder how realistic those expectations are if this ASADA s**t is dragged into the start of the season (which I think is inexcusable in light of the length of the hearing).

What I am not looking forward to is the mediocre season (i.e. 1 final victory and not being close to a top 4 team in a subsequent final) followed by the 'oh yeah, but look at the start of the year, we missed X number of points which would have gotten us in to the top 4 because we weren't playing our best team' which is then reflected in the management of the list (a variation of which we have seen at the end of each of the last 3 years).

I am getting more and more paranoid about wasting a football generation.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Stanton is absolutely good enough. The question is whether he fits into our side given that every one of his flaws is reflected by the current midfield (he's not the only one). I think it is fair to say that you can't hope to have sustained excellence if your midfield is not set to match the way the game is played.

I'm actually looking at a team from about 2017 as one which is capable of a prolonged period of excellence of the sort enjoyed by the current Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney teams (whether it is enough in light of the potential juggernauts at GC and GWS only time will tell).

Natural attrition will correct the balance of the side in terms of its physical capabilities. I also look at the younger generation as being a lot smarter and reflecting the football intelligence of players in teams like EFC 2000 and Hawthorn and Geelong in particular (much of which I think is related to their being developed from 2011 rather than the remnants of the shambles that occurred previously).


As far as expectations for this year, I'm getting worried. As much as a 'pass mark' should be linked to the experience of the team that will be playing I am starting to wonder how realistic those expectations are if this ASADA s**t is dragged into the start of the season (which I think is inexcusable in light of the length of the hearing).

What I am not looking forward to is the mediocre season (i.e. 1 final victory and not being close to a top 4 team in a subsequent final) followed by the 'oh yeah, but look at the start of the year, we missed X number of points which would have gotten us in to the top 4 because we weren't playing our best team' which is then reflected in the management of the list (a variation of which we have seen at the end of each of the last 3 years).

I am getting more and more paranoid about wasting a football generation.

Assuming the players get off, the resulting weight off their shoulders should translate to intensity on game day. Hird will be in their ear about lost opportunities that have already happened and how the only way to right the wrong is to make up for lost time. Under those circumstances, if we can't play top level football 90% of the time then the playing groups actual ability has to be questioned.
We have a section of players like Stanton, Hocking, Myers, Dempsey and Howlett who on their day are as good as anyone, but seem to have too many days where they fall back to a "decent" sort of level. That's okay when you aren't expecting to win 17+ games for a season, but if you do want to win that many then these sort of players become a liability too often. Stanton's stats don't reflect the above i will acknowledge, but he has days where having the ball in his hands is detrimental to the team because of his inability to hurt the opposition with his disposal. Dempsey used to be more consistent so hopefully he can turn things around again. Having said that, i worry that about his football brain/temperament at times, as he seems to do some crazy things particularly when under pressure.
So i don't think we are losing a generation here. We simply haven't had a forward line capable of being top four until the second half of 2014. It didn't all come together like we might have wished in the finals, but the stage is now set if we can consolidate and build on what we showed up forward late last year. Our dependence on Carlisle and JD is a weakness though... Hopefully Giles and TBC can offer some depth moving forward.

On a side note, i've never really given thought to how different things might have turned out if TBC hadn't done his ankle? You would think he would have replaced Carlisle early on up forward and given the form he started to develop the previous year, he might have been hard to dislodge? There could have been a couple more games won early on if that were the case...

 

[BrunoV]

Assuming the players get off, the resulting weight off their shoulders should translate to intensity on game day. Hird will be in their ear about lost opportunities that have already happened and how the only way to right the wrong is to make up for lost time. Under those circumstances, if we can't play top level football 90% of the time then the playing groups actual ability has to be questioned.
We have a section of players like Stanton, Hocking, Myers, Dempsey and Howlett who on their day are as good as anyone, but seem to have too many days where they fall back to a "decent" sort of level. That's okay when you aren't expecting to win 17+ games for a season, but if you do want to win that many then these sort of players become a liability too often. Stanton's stats don't reflect the above i will acknowledge, but he has days where having the ball in his hands is detrimental to the team because of his inability to hurt the opposition with his disposal. Dempsey used to be more consistent so hopefully he can turn things around again. Having said that, i worry that about his football brain/temperament at times, as he seems to do some crazy things particularly when under pressure.
So i don't think we are losing a generation here. We simply haven't had a forward line capable of being top four until the second half of 2014. It didn't all come together like we might have wished in the finals, but the stage is now set if we can consolidate and build on what we showed up forward late last year. Our dependence on Carlisle and JD is a weakness though... Hopefully Giles and TBC can offer some depth moving forward.

On a side note, i've never really given thought to how different things might have turned out if TBC hadn't done his ankle? You would think he would have replaced Carlisle early on up forward and given the form he started to develop the previous year, he might have been hard to dislodge? There could have been a couple more games won early on if that were the case...

When I say a lost generation I'm talking about what will be a 5 to 6 year period during which nothing really happened which would be a failure to capitalise on the quality experience we have at the club.

 

[hurlygurdy]

When I say a lost generation I'm talking about what will be a 5 to 6 year period during which nothing really happened which would be a failure to capitalise on the quality experience we have at the club.

Which 5 or 6 years? If you are referring to last 3 then i see no evidence for much opportunity missed (perhaps a couple of finals wins). The next 3 might be galvanised in a way that might not have otherwise happened without the saga.

 

[BrunoV]

2012 to 2014 were basically wasted years (except for some games into kids). It's not just about winning premierships, it's about being successful and winning finals and being a good team which was certainly a possibility.

If we get to the end of 2015 looking back at the start of the year as the cause of an underwhelming year we waste 2015 and probably 2016. It will extend the lag period to about 3 years.

 

[Seagrave_Holmes]

Winning a finals game.

 

[Andronicus]

Winning a finals game.

In October.

 

[Stickers32]

Beating st kilda and melbourne! That's all I care about. Anything else is a bonus! Need to play kids asap and not carry injured players into games.


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[Marley10]

Alright 5 rounds in and we are so unfit.

Would have accepted 3-2 at the start of the season, but we are looking so bad at the moment.

Haven't played well since the first half of the Hawthorn game and it is getting worse as the weeks go on. Very lazy players we have.

Still cannot perform against the bottom teams. 2 point win vs the reigning premiers and 2 against the reigning wooden spooners.

Forward line is worse.


There are several factors that contribute to our inability to score.

Delivery inside 50s.

Forwards don't know how to lead properly. When they do, it is kicked on top of the head, allowing defenders to spoil.

Slow ball movement, allowing the opposition to get back. Our forward 50 always seems to be so congested. Just on this, St Kilda were able to get a quick reply to our goals time and time again because of the amount of space in their forward 50. Teams seem to have worked us out. Flood the back line and get us on the counter.

Early days, but if we don't fix this, we'll have another middle of the road, mediocre season.

 

[hurlygurdy]

cup is half full. Asada all but done and a 3/2 scoreline. Winning when out of form. Things could be so much worse!

 

[jmoo wan]

Beating st kilda and melbourne! That's all I care about. Anything else is a bonus! Need to play kids asap and not carry injured players into games.


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half way there!

 

[Marley10]

It's sad how I was more worried about St Kilda and Melbourne back to back in rounds 14 and 15 then Sydney and Hawthorn when the draw came out.