Analysis Permutations

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electricfeel said:
That's how I see it as well. Beat Sydney in the first week, Geelong beats Hawks in the QF, we defeat Hawks in the PF at home and then meet Geelong in the GF... how fiery will that be!
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Team rule for the week - every Geelong player who ducks into a tackle leaves the ground on a stretcher.

Any Freo player who doesn't get suspended in the grand final gets dropped in R1 2015 for not hitting them hard enough.
 

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beetz said:
I have no doubts they could win it from 4th but what hurts Freo the most is the travel.

Really, they should just stay in Melb for the month.
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I have tried that argument and you will loose it because almost no one will agree with you so stop now and save yourself a lot of pain.
 
couldhavebeen said:
I have tried that argument and you will loose it because almost no one will agree with you so stop now and save yourself a lot of pain.
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Well staying in Melbourne for a month would be pretty dumb considering one of our games is likely to be in Sydney and the next one in Perth.
 
couldhavebeen said:
I have tried that argument and you will loose it because almost no one will agree with you so stop now and save yourself a lot of pain.
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Hard to fathom why but for what its worth, I agree with you even though I never saw your argument previously.
 
We should start planning for next season now because there is no way we can win the flag this year with the current forward set up we have now .
Last year we had more mongrel and fight in the belly . This year players haven't improved as much as we needed too .
The recruit from Melbourne has not had any impact and Gumbelton hasn't given us a bloody thing .
Kepler has not been able to play a league game this year . Walters injury is the one thing that prevented us from reaching top 2 and Simpson having his problems robbed us of an impact player .
So as much as my heart want us to make the Grand Final my head says we have not beaten Hawthorn ,Geelong or Sydney away and that's what we must do .
This week is an 8 point game and we will know where our season is really at .
Even if we win look at the quality players they have to come back into their team for the finals .
 
ozzie69 said:
Do you have any idea of the infectious diseases they could pick up after a month in Melbourne?
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Hey I live there!

BTW I think we're as good a chance as last year of making the GF again, and with a bit more experience who knows maybe we'll win it this time.
 
couldhavebeen said:
So as much as my heart want us to make the Grand Final my head says we have not beaten Hawthorn ,Geelong or Sydney away and that's what we must do .
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We didn't beat any of them away before the finals last years either.

Don't be so defeatist - at our best we're every chance of knocking Sydney off in the first week of the finals. Or if luck goes our way we may even get to face Geelong, and surely the umps know they wouldn't be able to get away with such blatant cheating in a final.
 
estibador said:
Well staying in Melbourne for a month would be pretty dumb considering one of our games is likely to be in Sydney and the next one in Perth.
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I started a thread on Fremantle having a base in Melbourne for the finals a couple of years ago when we beat Geelong and then had Adelaide the week after.
RTB had the boys flying back to Perth and 5 days later flying to Adelaide , it made no sense to me at all because if we won we would have been flying back to Perth and the onto Melbourne for the Grand final with jet lag .
 
couldhavebeen said:
I started a thread on Fremantle having a base in Melbourne for the finals a couple of years ago when we beat Geelong and then had Adelaide the week after.
RTB had the boys flying back to Perth and 5 days later flying to Adelaide , it made no sense to me at all because if we won we would have been flying back to Perth and the onto Melbourne for the Grand final with jet lag .
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Yep agree, we ran out of legs in the last quarter against Adelaide.

And yes it would be silly to be based out of Melb given we have potential Syd and Home finals to play. Maybe I should rephrase and throw up that if worst case happens and we play our home final in the 2nd week and win, there would be a good chance the Prelim is in Melb. Should we win that, I don't see the benefits of flying back to Perth for a few days before flying back to Melb for the GF.
 

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I discovered an Analsys theorum that points to 4th place being preferrable

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So it seems if we want to go from point A to point B without running into all this chaos it's 4!!

Also all out by ourselves in the second portion of this theorum.

All alone = Premiers

You are welcome guys.
 
Cases of when a team has lost a Grand Final one year and won the next year after finishing lower on the ladder the second year (2 hours of research yielded this):

North Melbourne - 1974-75; 1998-99
Hawthorn - 1975-76
Geelong - 2008-09
West Coat Eagles - 1991-92

OK so not many times but it's been done...
 
StingBitten said:
Cases of when a team has lost a Grand Final one year and won the next year after finishing lower on the ladder the second year (2 hours of research yielded this):

North Melbourne - 1974-75; 1998-99
Hawthorn - 1975-76
Geelong - 2008-09
West Coat Eagles - 1991-92

OK so not many times but it's been done...
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Port won less games in 2004 when they won the flag, than 2003. Finished top both times, but nevertheless!
 
Even though we beat Hawks tonight they would still be my 3rd choice to face in the 1st week of finals (or even in the GF). For me it's now

1st - Geelong
2nd - Sydney
3rd - Hawthorn

Although looking likely we'll have the Swans at ANZ.
 
Given that it is quite unlikely we would catch Hawthorn or Sydney's %, the odds of Top 2 have taken a dramatic fall this weekend. In addition, it means finishing 3rd is very difficult, and would require either Geelong or Hawthorn to drop their last two games.

With my estimations of a 90% win likelihood this week and 65% v Port, we are still just around 3% chance of Top 2.

In better news, chance of finishing top 4 is now about 90%.

The winner of Geelong and Hawthorn next week is almost certainly top 2, and it is just around 8% chance that Sydney won't top the ladder.

So at this stage, it is most likely:

Sydney (>90% probability of 1st)
Hawthorn/Geelong
Geelong/Hawthorn
Fremantle (<15% probability of finishing higher than 4th)
 
Thinking negatively for a second.

Say we finish 4th and lose to the Swans.

Would we rather Port in a home final or North? I'd feel comfortable with either, but if we weren't to win the GF I'd love to smack North.

Opinions?

Or imagine Eagles finish 8th, which despite their loss is the most likely of all outcomes. They then go on to defeat Port or North.

Yowsers if that was to eventuate.
 
Just a question but are you all really 100% confident that you could beat Geelong, it's an honest question surely you have to have a little respect for Geelong's ability at this stage.

As a Cats fan your permutations of a Geelong Vs Freo GF being preferred is also what a lot of Cats fans would feel is our best chance of winning.

Maybe subconsciously we are just admitting Sydney and Hawthorn are better then us this year.
 
catstorm said:
Just a question but are you all really 100% confident that you could beat Geelong, it's an honest question surely you have to have a little respect for Geelong's ability at this stage.

As a Cats fan your permutations of a Geelong Vs Freo GF being preferred is also what a lot of Cats fans would feel is our best chance of winning.

Maybe subconsciously we are just admitting Sydney and Hawthorn are better then us this year.
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Given my choice I'd prefer to play the cats in a GF for the reason you just stated.

It's not disrespecting the Cats, it is realising that those 2 teams are on another level.

Sure we beat Hawks today, but it felt like we had 22 contributors, Pav kicked 5, our mids dominated, they played slowly in the second half, were lacking lead up fowards and inside 50's and we only won by 3 goals!

Injuries will still play a big part in September, so it's about who can go in with a healthy squad.
 
catstorm said:
Just a question but are you all really 100% confident that you could beat Geelong, it's an honest question surely you have to have a little respect for Geelong's ability at this stage.

As a Cats fan your permutations of a Geelong Vs Freo GF being preferred is also what a lot of Cats fans would feel is our best chance of winning.

Maybe subconsciously we are just admitting Sydney and Hawthorn are better then us this year.
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We are also very confident that our 22 are better than your 22. We just can't cover the extras.
 
catstorm said:
Just a question but are you all really 100% confident that you could beat Geelong, it's an honest question surely you have to have a little respect for Geelong's ability at this stage.

.
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Why would we be 100% confident of beating a team that is ahead of us on the ladder?

It's not about respect, it's about recognising that Geelong have won a LOT of close games this year, which arguably have inflated their W/L record. Secondly, our record against Geelong is far better than against Hawthorn or Sydney. So naturally we would prefer this.
 
catstorm said:
Just a question but are you all really 100% confident that you could beat Geelong, it's an honest question surely you have to have a little respect for Geelong's ability at this stage.

As a Cats fan your permutations of a Geelong Vs Freo GF being preferred is also what a lot of Cats fans would feel is our best chance of winning.

Maybe subconsciously we are just admitting Sydney and Hawthorn are better then us this year.
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There's also that if we play Geelong, it won't be at their home ground (maybe). Which is an advantage for anyone who gets to play Geelong in a final (except Freo who different rules apply to, which the AFL just basically makes up as they go).
 
pokerspiv said:
There's also that if we play Geelong, it won't be at their home ground (maybe). Which is an advantage for anyone who gets to play Geelong in a final (except Freo who different rules apply to, which the AFL just basically makes up as they go).
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Not such a big thing really, Geelong are 14-0 in Victoria so not playing in Geelong (a ground that is better for Freo's style) is no great advantage Geelong play MCG and Etihad just fine.
 
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