Pick 1

[SugarCoat]

How on earth were they getting two? Only four of those players are available to be picked in the draft. No-one was offering them 2 picks inside the top 4.

With Melbourne & GWS having two picks within the top 6 now & Collingwood in the top 10, all 3 clubs will make a strategic call at one of their picks.
Melbourne will take Brayshaw at 2 and industry speak is Lever will go at 3.
GWS will also do the same with Wright if they select him.
A bolter like LaVerde & Lever to these 3 clubs will mean one of the big 4 slides.

 

[master bate]

With Melbourne & GWS having two picks within the top 6 now & Collingwood in the top 10, all 3 clubs will make a strategic call at one of their picks.
Melbourne will take Brayshaw at 2 and industry speak is Lever will go at 3.
GWS will also do the same with Wright if they select him.
A bolter like LaVerde & Lever to these 3 clubs will mean one of the big 4 slides.

But say they did the trade of 4 and 7 for pick 1.

1-3: GWS - Petracca. Melb - Brayshaw, Lever.
4: Saints: McCartin or Wright
5: Coll: Laverde
6: GWS: Probably McCartin or Wright
7: Saints???

Even with picks 6 and 7 then they only get 1 of them and that's still presuming Melb and Collingwood don't take a chance on a gun young forward. Lever could be speculation and Hine probably has the nuts to go for best available and not worry so much about Collingwood's immediate future.

No one's arguing the saints wouldn't get 1 of the so called big 4. Just that they wont get 2. Currently as it stands they get 1 of the big 4 and it's the one they deem the best!

 

[Trav 20]

With Melbourne & GWS having two picks within the top 6 now & Collingwood in the top 10, all 3 clubs will make a strategic call at one of their picks.
Melbourne will take Brayshaw at 2 and industry speak is Lever will go at 3.
GWS will also do the same with Wright if they select him.
A bolter like LaVerde & Lever to these 3 clubs will mean one of the big 4 slides.

Lever is a tall defender coming off a knee. We have McDonald, Garland, Dunn, Pedersen (who is better back than forward) and we've just recruited the 194cm centre-half back Sam Frost. We can't fit in the tall defenders we already have.

Other than a couple of randoms on Demonland that have said Melbourne like Lever (and why wouldn't we) and also Brett Anderson, who acknowledges we like his talent, I haven't seen, heard or read any compelling groundswells of opinion that Melbourne are "likely" to take Lever.

So my question is, where do you get this "industry speak" you refer to ?

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Lever is a tall defender coming off a knee. We have McDonald, Garland, Dunn, Pedersen (who is better back than forward) and we've just recruited the 194cm centre-half back Sam Frost. We can't fit in the tall defenders we already have.

Other than a couple of randoms on Demonland that have said Melbourne like Lever (and why wouldn't we) and also Brett Anderson, who acknowledges we like his talent, I haven't seen, heard or read any compelling groundswells of opinion that Melbourne are "likely" to take Lever.

So my question is, where do you get this "industry speak" you refer to ?

Word is we're looking to turn him into a tall midfielder.

 

[Trav 20]

Word is we're looking to turn him into a tall midfielder.

I keep hearing these "words", but not one person can give a creditable source.

I suspect it's complete bulldust made up by the person who assured us we'd be getting Kennedy and Dangerfield.

 

[markm106]

I keep hearing these "words", but not one person can give a creditable source.

I suspect it's complete bulldust made up by the person who assured us we'd be getting Kennedy and Dangerfield.

Apparently he has not been tried as a mid. However has been training with the mids in his recovery. So jury well and truly out on his midfielder status. Does have the agility looking at his highlights.

 

[SugarCoat]

Lever will either go to Melbourne at 3 or GWS at 4.
He is a quality prospect playing wise.
But he is a leader. Roos loves him.

 

[philthy987]

I keep hearing these "words", but not one person can give a creditable source.

I suspect it's complete bulldust made up by the person who assured us we'd be getting Kennedy and Dangerfield.

I can confirm we are into lever, my cousin is good mates with him being a romsey boy. He said that melbourne have been heavily into him and see him as a phototype, wanting to move him into midfield. Will know defenite few days before draft so will confirm then

 

[master bate]

I keep hearing these "words", but not one person can give a creditable source.

I suspect it's complete bulldust made up by the person who assured us we'd be getting Kennedy and Dangerfield.

The only reason I give it credibility is that there's no reason to spread it otherwise. No we are locked in to picks 2 and 3 the saints will take whoever they do and we get what's left. And it's been floating around here more than demonland.

From his time at Sydney they took a range of players with early picks so I wont presume to know what Roos likes in drafting except there was talk of an end of season forum for certain members that he gave where he made his thoughts on judging key forward prospects based on TAC form as not being highly relevant. Plus he's almost certain to favour midfielders if available. How much he even involves himself is recruiting is probably overblown.

Jason Taylor hasn't been the head man for long enough to get a read on either. Salem and JKH were his picks last year and both are guys who can find the ball and use the ball and who had clear production at TAC/under 18 champs. Taking a line through Derek Hine may help but Hine's record is more about just finding good footballers, trying to categorise is hard except he's drafted a lot of little fellas recently but I think that's just how it broke for him as well. He did spend first round picks on Brown and Reid (who was probably more of a tall forward at the time) as well as Scharenberg.

I'm fine with us going for Lever as long as he can kick and rebound the ball with pace. If he can then heck lets go with 2 talls, Dunn, Garland and Lever in the same backline. Hawthorn have no trouble fitting in Lake (Frost), Spangher (McDonald), Gibson (Dunn), Birchall (Lever)and Stratton (Garland) in the same backline. In reality I dont think either of Frost or McDonald are sure things long term, so making them compete will actually bring out the best in them.

 

[Trav 20]

The only reason I give it credibility is that there's no reason to spread it otherwise. No we are locked in to picks 2 and 3 the saints will take whoever they do and we get what's left. And it's been floating around here more than demonland.

From his time at Sydney they took a range of players with early picks so I wont presume to know what Roos likes in drafting except there was talk of an end of season forum for certain members that he gave where he made his thoughts on judging key forward prospects based on TAC form as not being highly relevant. Plus he's almost certain to favour midfielders if available. How much he even involves himself is recruiting is probably overblown.

Jason Taylor hasn't been the head man for long enough to get a read on either. Salem and JKH were his picks last year and both are guys who can find the ball and use the ball and who had clear production at TAC/under 18 champs. Taking a line through Derek Hine may help but Hine's record is more about just finding good footballers, trying to categorise is hard except he's drafted a lot of little fellas recently but I think that's just how it broke for him as well. He did spend first round picks on Brown and Reid (who was probably more of a tall forward at the time) as well as Scharenberg.

I'm fine with us going for Lever as long as he can kick and rebound the ball with pace. If he can then heck lets go with 2 talls, Dunn, Garland and Lever in the same backline. Hawthorn have no trouble fitting in Lake (Frost), Spangher (McDonald), Gibson (Dunn), Birchall (Lever)and Stratton (Garland) in the same backline. In reality I dont think either of Frost or McDonald are sure things long term, so making them compete will actually bring out the best in them.

Apparently all Lever has ever done in the midfield is "train".

Notwithstanding our due diligence, I'll be very surprised if his name is called out at pick 3. It just doesn't make sense to me. He's not a proven mid, another key back isn't as pressing a need with the trading for Frost and we'd love another key forward to supplement Hogan and Dawes. And we have the chance to draft the guy touted as pick 1 for much of the year.

As I said, it doesn't make sense, so I'll believe it when. I see it.

 

[master bate]

Apparently all Lever has ever done in the midfield is "train".

Notwithstanding our due diligence, I'll be very surprised if his name is called out at pick 3. It just doesn't make sense to me. He's not a proven mid, another key back isn't as pressing a need with the trading for Frost and we'd love another key forward to supplement Hogan and Dawes. And we have the chance to draft the guy touted as pick 1 for much of the year.

As I said, it doesn't make sense, so I'll believe it when. I see it.

Dawes and Hogan don't ruck. So no desperate need for another key forward if we can get them up to form. Frost and McDonald aren't proven so no harm in a key defender. That's how I see it. If a 2nd gun mid was available I'd go that way over any tall but definitely best available.

Agree about the Lever to the midfield thing. That said you have to recruit guys based on traits that you can adapt to AFL level. But personally from what I've seen Lever is a key defender.

It does come down to best available. If it's a split decision take the forward as the reward is better (see Boyd's deal).

 

[Marlowe]

Anyone think the value of pick 1 dropped when Boyd decided to walk out after 1 year?

I think it's devalued if you're GWS and you're planning to draft anybody from Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania, Queensland, Northern Territory, or anyone not born and raised in Sydney's western suburbs, and even then, chances are if you're under 18 and playing football in Sydney's western suburbs, you're doing it to get out and as far away as possible from Sydney's western suburbs.

If I were St. Kilda, I would definitely have taken pick 4 and either 6/7 for pick 1. The draft's a crap shoot no matter where you're drafting in it, a lot of it - well, most of it - falls on development, and maybe a bit of luck, so unless the #1 pick is O'Mearaesque, or your club is a complete dud, I reckon two ten picks are a safer bet than number one.

 

[Trav 20]

Dawes and Hogan don't ruck. So no desperate need for another key forward if we can get them up to form.(see Boyd's deal).

I like the idea of a 3 prong key forward attack. It may be top heavy some weeks, but in principle, it works. If they're good enough.

Btw, I'm all for getting another key defender. But not at pick 3.

 

[master bate]

I like the idea of a 3 prong key forward attack. It may be top heavy some weeks, but in principle, it works. If they're good enough.

Btw, I'm all for getting another key defender. But not at pick 3.

There's not a team playing 3 key forwards and 2 rucks though. Which means for Melbourne if they draft Wright then that's fine. By the time he's matured physically and got to AFL standard (be it in a year or 3) he'd be capable of pitch hitting in the ruck. Doesn't work so well for McCartin. For McCartin I think you're looking at moving Dawes on (or as depth) eventually and still keeping someone like Pedersen or Gawn as the second ruck.

Comes back to our highest priorities being midfielders and elite players. If there's not a 2nd midfielder then we take best available.

 

[Trav 20]

There's not a team playing 3 key forwards and 2 rucks though. Which means for Melbourne if they draft Wright then that's fine. By the time he's matured physically and got to AFL standard (be it in a year or 3) he'd be capable of pitch hitting in the ruck. Doesn't work so well for McCartin. For McCartin I think you're looking at moving Dawes on (or as depth) eventually and still keeping someone like Pedersen or Gawn as the second ruck.

Comes back to our highest priorities being midfielders and elite players. If there's not a 2nd midfielder then we take best available.

Good point about the rucks, but I don't want Wright. Too much of a risk at such an early pick and is years off.

The game is already moving away from 2 genuine rucks. Forwards already pinch hit in the ruck and Dawes may have to get used to doing a bit again.

 

[gee whiz giant]

I think it's devalued if you're GWS and you're planning to draft anybody from Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania, Queensland, Northern Territory, or anyone not born and raised in Sydney's western suburbs, and even then, chances are if you're under 18 and playing football in Sydney's western suburbs, you're doing it to get out and as far away as possible from Sydney's western suburbs..

get yr hand off it. GWS will be drafting jack Steele from Belconnen, and Jeremy Finlayson from Culcairn, both within the recruiting area.

 

[nineteen eighty]

Lever is a tall defender coming off a knee. We have McDonald, Garland, Dunn, Pedersen (who is better back than forward) and we've just recruited the 194cm centre-half back Sam Frost. We can't fit in the tall defenders we already have.

Other than a couple of randoms on Demonland that have said Melbourne like Lever (and why wouldn't we) and also Brett Anderson, who acknowledges we like his talent, I haven't seen, heard or read any compelling groundswells of opinion that Melbourne are "likely" to take Lever.

So my question is, where do you get this "industry speak" you refer to ?

No club would take a defender with such a high pick. I say that knowing nothing about Lever other than you saying he is a defender. Short of him being a marking beast I just can't see it. Such high picks are usually aimed at gun mids or KPF's.

 

[nineteen eighty]

Word is we're looking to turn him into a tall midfielder.

Has he ever played as a midfielder or will Melbourne back themselves in given their success in developing players over the last decade? I'm not being a smart arse here but the last thing you would want is for your club to select a defender with such a high pick thinking they can convert him into a midfielder.

 

[Stylo]

Just my opinion, but the Saints were bonkers not to trade pick 1 for 4 and 7 or whatever it was GWS reportedly offered. Two bites of more or less the same cherry, would have ended up with two of Wright, Lever, Durdin, Laverde, Weller, Pickett, which IMO would have offered a far better foundation for a rebuild than just Petracca on his own. He's good, but not so far ahead of the others that he justifies passing up an offer like that. Time will tell I suppose but I think Pelchen screwed the pooch on this one.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Just my opinion, but the Saints were bonkers not to trade pick 1 for 4 and 7 or whatever it was GWS reportedly offered. Two bites of more or less the same cherry, would have ended up with two of Wright, Lever, Durdin, Laverde, Weller, Pickett, which IMO would have offered a far better foundation for a rebuild than just Petracca on his own. He's good, but not so far ahead of the others that he justifies passing up an offer like that. Time will tell I suppose but I think Pelchen screwed the pooch on this one.

First of all, you are underestimating how highly StK rate Petracca. Second of all, the fact GWS were willing to trade 4 & 7 for 1 & 21 shows how highly they also rate Petracca. I'm thinking there's a common theme here. Clubs really rate Petracca against others at the pointy end of the draft. If that trade did go ahead would you be saying GWS screwed the pooch giving up those players you mentioned for Petracca?

 

[Stylo]

First of all, you are underestimating how highly StK rate Petracca. Second of all, the fact GWS were willing to trade 4 & 7 for 1 & 21 shows how highly they also rate Petracca. I'm thinking there's a common theme here. Clubs really rate Petracca against others at the pointy end of the draft. If that trade did go ahead would you be saying GWS screwed the pooch giving up those players you mentioned for Petracca?

Yes, but not to the same extent as the Saints have considering how much young talent the Giants already have. At this stage the Saints need to bring in as much quantity of talent as they can, where GWS can afford to pick and choose a bit more.

Also, you don't think Melbourne rated Jack Watts and Tom Scully highly as well? There are no guarantees here and looking at the history of the draft picks 4 and 7 combined have at least broken even with and often surpassed the quality of pick one.

 

[Trav 20]

Also, you don't think Melbourne rated Jack Watts and Tom Scully highly as well? There are no guarantees here and looking at the history of the draft picks 4 and 7 combined have at least broken even with and often surpassed the quality of pick one.

Petracca is a big bodied contested ball winning mid. History shows that those types of players taken early have a far higher success rate. Hopefully Melbourne have learnt a hard lesson.

Petracca and Brayshaw are far more likely to succeed than a Scully, Morton, or Watts.

 

[master bate]

No club would take a defender with such a high pick. I say that knowing nothing about Lever other than you saying he is a defender. Short of him being a marking beast I just can't see it. Such high picks are usually aimed at gun mids or KPF's.

Usually yes. But the talk is there's no standout midfielder after the first 2.

Peter Wright may be a forward. Or he may just be a ruckman with some forward abilities that will take ages to develop. Which brings us back to McCartin who could be a very good key forward in which it would be hard to make a case for a defender ahead of. But at the same time I'd much rather the Dees drafted Michael Hurley than Jack Watts in 2008!

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Yes, but not to the same extent as the Saints have considering how much young talent the Giants already have. At this stage the Saints need to bring in as much quantity of talent as they can, where GWS can afford to pick and choose a bit more.

Also, you don't think Melbourne rated Jack Watts and Tom Scully highly as well? There are no guarantees here and looking at the history of the draft picks 4 and 7 combined have at least broken even with and often surpassed the quality of pick one.

Trav 20 hit the nail on the head.

We need to nail this draft and evidence suggests big bodied mids with ball winning ability are a much surer thing than outside mids and talls. This drafts top 10 is packed full of talls and outside mids with the only elite ball winners being Petracca and Brayshaw - who are odds-on to go 1 and 2. There's no ball winning guys like Wines or Selwood projected to be in that 4-7 range.

Whilst guys like Laverde, Pickett, Durdin and Wright look like nice prospects they are not the safe options like Petracca and Brayshaw and are a higher chance of being a 'bust'. We cannot take that risk. It's no coincidence the guys you mentioned that Melbourne took are a tall and an outside mid.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Has he ever played as a midfielder or will Melbourne back themselves in given their success in developing players over the last decade? I'm not being a smart arse here but the last thing you would want is for your club to select a defender with such a high pick thinking they can convert him into a midfielder.

Several draft people (like Emma Quayle) and his junior coaches feel like he could make it in the middle.