Prediction Pick 14/Draft Night Predictions

[sonnywalters]

Only if you want to call Lenny or Harvs bog slow.

He is not lightning quick, but it just a plain insult and shows great ignorance to call him bog slow.

Regardless, he is obviously no good being two time underage AA and all. Must be hopeless

He is bog slow and tested bottom 5% in the beep test. That is dreadful. None of the draft experts have him in the top 20.
What makes you think you know more than all the experts?
Having said that - it would be good if they tested visual awareness - I bet Lenny and Sam Mitchell would score very very well on that.

 

[sonnywalters]

Bog slow? Sure about that?

Yes I am positive. He is bog slow.

 

[sonnywalters]

Only if you want to call Lenny or Harvs bog slow.

He is not lightning quick, but it just a plain insult and shows great ignorance to call him bog slow.

Regardless, he is obviously no good being two time underage AA and all. Must be hopeless

Harves? Are you joking me? You have just lost all credibility. Harves was extremely quick over 30m. Maybe you are thinking of Harves when he was 40 not 19? Harvey also would have been elite in the shuttle run and beep test. Certainly not bottom 5%. Laughable.
Who cares about AA - Oliver didnt even make the rep sides at all - and he will go much higher than Mathieson. Some guys peak at 15/16. I am not saying Matho is hopeless - He got 10 clearances in a VFL game - that is a big positive. I am however pointing out that he is no sure thing to make it and has obvious deficiencies (slow, terrible endurance and low DE). He is a big risk.

 

[MCG-Unit]

Balic (Oliver likely to be gone by 14-19)
Mathieson, Gresham, Tucker & Partington

Rice

Snadden (mid) Allen, Gardner (both talls)

 

[CursingFijian]

Matheison is Michael Barlow slow. His lack of pace is something he has had to contend with all his life, and I would guess that he has cultivated a certain smarts in order to circumvent that deficiency. He will accumulate possessions, and I dare say on a wet day at the MCG he would repay the club in spades.

 

[Joffaboy]

My prediction is that my vodafail G4 connection will fall over just as the draft is starting

 

[Quixote]

Why? Callum Twomey has him down at pick 28. He is treacle slow and has terrible endurance.
It annoys me that some rumour comes out of the club and everyone just gets on board without questioning it.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-11-22/callum-twomeys-2015-phantom-draft

Jimmy Toumpas was lightning quick and probably ran a great beep test. Who cares? He was a flop who couldn't find the pill or handle the real stuff. Mathieson is a footballer and I rate footballers. Also, have read some glowing reports on the kid from people who've watched him first hand. As someone who can't do this, I tend to rely on these reports somewhat...

PS I'm just a mouthpiece for the Club, see, I'm the minaret for their religion and I bow down before the wisdom of Ameet's 10 foot wang.

 

[STK2020]

Im still on the Gresham wagon .
Im very very confident he will play senior footy round 1 for which ever club picks him .
I must admit also, I like Matho , this kid looks like he has plenty of C about him .

 

[borderbarry]

My wish list.

14/18... Milera. Oliver. Gresham.. Curnow. Burton

44/38 Rice.

66/ 56 White. Jeffs.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yes I am positive. He is bog slow.

Matheison is Michael Barlow slow.

He is treacle slow

Having watched him play both this year and last year I definitely disagree with this. To me he moves with really good energy in the packs and I've seen him burst through the middle of the ground at a speed that someone who was "treacle slow" wouldn't be able to.

Quigley also told me last night that he recorded a 3.09 second 20m sprint at the combine and while obviously not fast by any means, it's also well short of "treacle slow", which I would consider to be anyone who is posting around the 3.20sec mark, or above.

According to Kristian Pisano's mock draft on here in 2013, Matt Crouch recorded a 3.25 sec 20m sprint (and was "below average in the endurance events"), Ben Lennon a 3.18, and going by what he wrote about Patrick Cripps ("...basically testing poorly in all categories. I was not surprised by the sprint times particularly but I thought his engine was a bit better than a 13.1 beep and a bottom 11% 3km time trial") he tested worse across the board than Matho did (including in the beep test and 3km time trial) and was probably also around the 3.20 mark or above for the 20m sprint, like Lennon and Crouch.

It's a pity he didn't specifically list Bontempelli's sprint times, because his comment that he "plays faster than he tests" probably indicates that he too recorded a slower 20m sprint time than Matho did. Even Eli Templeton, who I consider pretty quick, was only 0.03 seconds faster (3.06) than what Quigley said Matho was this year. http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threa...r-rankings-progressive.1040150/#post-30856696

I also read somewhere on here the other day that Steel Sidebottom recorded a 20m sprint time of over 3.20 seconds in his draft year, so Matho was apparently considerably quicker than him as well and then there's last year's combine results, where Jack Lonie was listed at 3.15, Toby McLean 3.17, Liam Duggan 3.10, Bailey Dale 3.16 and Alex Neal-Bullen 3.12. So they too were also all slower than the supposedly "treacle slow" Mathieson. I would expect someone like Michael Barlow to have tested above 3.20 when he was Matho's age and possibly still does.

Having watched them all play I'd also be very happy to bet that Matho would be quicker than in particular Seb Ross and probably also Luke Dunstan.

The fact that the likes of Matt Crouch and Patrick Cripps tested so poorly for both speed and endurance, yet have been able to come straight into AFL footy and get so much of the ball (Crouch has already had 14 games (out of the 21 he's played) of between 22 and 28 possessions and Cripps just won Carlton's B&F!) suggests that there is no reason we need to be freaking out about Rhys's combine testing. Like the other two, he might not go well on an athletics track, but he does go well on a footy field and that is what we'd be drafting him for.

According to Pisano's 2012 mock, Jackson Macrae scored only a 12.1 in his beep and yet he then went on to be the youngest ever to have a 40 possession game at VFL/AFL level, less than two years later.

I also take heart from Mick Turner's comment in today's article on Rhys in the HS, where he said that his beep test at the combine was a significant improvement on what he had done previously, so hopefully that improvement continues (if we draft him), like the reported significant improvement in his kicking. He sounds like the type who will just work on whatever he needs to work on until it's at the point he needs it it to be.

It was also interesting to see Turner say that at U16 level Rhys was playing at CHF, which might explain why he looked so comfortable overhead in the recent highlights package of him and why he is meant to be a good option when resting forward.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Personally I hope we draft a footballer rather than a bloke who can run a sub 3 sec 20m, do a 15 beep and can't find the pill to save himself. Lucky for Hodge, Lewis & Mitchell that they aren't in this year's draft...they'd be written off as bog slow & might be lucky to be rookied.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Personally I hope we draft a footballer rather than a bloke who can run a sub 3 sec 20m, do a 15 beep and can't find the pill to save himself. Lucky for Hodge, Lewis & Mitchell that they aren't in this year's draft...they'd be written off as bog slow & might be lucky to be rookied.

I think this might be a big part of the reason why Matho is being put so low in some of the mocks in the media. I reckon they would freak out about testing like that a lot more than the clubs would and as such are slotting him in as low as they can without leaving him out altogether. The HS the other day even admitted that "some clubs think we'll draft Rhys", yet in spite of that they put someone else into their mock at our pick, without saying anything about us being linked to him, or really keen on him.

 

[Periphery]

It's almost as if combine results are stupid and pointless.

If Matho was doing what he was doing on the footy field while having such a bad beep test just imagine what he would have been doing if he'd had that elite level of fitness.

People will say that it's an indication that he will never be able to get that endurance, but the other day I heard the Port fitness guy basically say you can always build someones tank, but it's almost impossible to build a footballer.

 

[hayes]

It's almost as if combine results are stupid and pointless.

If Matho was doing what he was doing on the footy field while having such a bad beep test just imagine what he would have been doing if he'd had that elite level of fitness.

People will say that it's an indication that he will never be able to get that endurance, but the other day I heard the Port fitness guy basically say you can always build someones tank, but it's almost impossible to build a footballer.

Preach!

 

[sonnywalters]

Matheison is Michael Barlow slow. His lack of pace is something he has had to contend with all his life, and I would guess that he has cultivated a certain smarts in order to circumvent that deficiency. He will accumulate possessions, and I dare say on a wet day at the MCG he would repay the club in spades.

Mathieson also bottom 5% in the beep whereas Barlow was a 14+ beep test. So no. Nice try though.

Fox sports has Mathieson at 24
Quayle - not in the top 25
Callum Twomey - 28

So please explain to me why all you BigFooty experts know more than these actual experts? Or is it just that you heard a BS rumour from a supposed club insider and then jumped on board?

Fox sports & Quayle both have us taking Tucker.

 

[sonnywalters]

It's almost as if combine results are stupid and pointless.

If Matho was doing what he was doing on the footy field while having such a bad beep test just imagine what he would have been doing if he'd had that elite level of fitness.

People will say that it's an indication that he will never be able to get that endurance, but the other day I heard the Port fitness guy basically say you can always build someones tank, but it's almost impossible to build a footballer.

You should ring all the 18 clubs and tell them to cancel next years combine then.

Seriously what is the weird obsession with Mathieson on here? Slow, poor endurance and low DE. Yes he is tough and competitive and can win clearances but so was Mark McGough and Andrew McQualter.

I am not writing Matho off - just pointing out that he has some serious deficiencies and is HIGH RISK. Some on here are hyping him up like hes a certain star. Hes not. He just isnt. Some comparing him to Hodge is laughable - Hodge isnt just tough but super skilful (much better kick than Matho) and very athletic - Hodge tested well in the sprint, agility and the jumps. Just not in the same conversation. I think people need a cold shower and a reality check.

 

[CHBench]

It's cause he's a St Kilda supporter. And someone drew a comparison to Lenny Hayes

 

[CursingFijian]

Mathieson also bottom 5% in the beep whereas Barlow was a 14+ beep test. So no. Nice try though.

Fox sports has Mathieson at 24
Quayle - not in the top 25
Callum Twomey - 28

So please explain to me why all you BigFooty experts know more than these actual experts? Or is it just that you heard a BS rumour from a supposed club insider and then jumped on board?

Fox sports & Quayle both have us taking Tucker.

I read it here and have jumped on board. I certainly am no draft expert, and I am not trying to convince everyone that I know more than others on this board. I have not set my sights on acquiring a specific player or even a specific type of player from this draft. I just feel that if we got Carlisle AND the guy that others have said we always wanted even at 5 then I can strut around like a winner! Then we really have only lost a second round pick but Rice nominating helps make up some of that ground.

With regard to my Barlow comparison I just wanted to point out that he is not super quick but still finds a lot of the ball, and neither is he an elite kick (IMO). I think a tank can be built if the player is committed (Seb Ross says hi) and from all reports Matheison is a wonderful character.

Having said that I would be just as happy with Tucker...again because I like his back story being an avid Saints supporter.

However, I will watch the draft tomorrow without any nervousness about whether we get the right guy or not...because I have never been more confident in the machinations of the club right now.

 

[God Save Max King]

Mathieson also bottom 5% in the beep whereas Barlow was a 14+ beep test. So no. Nice try though.

Fox sports has Mathieson at 24
Quayle - not in the top 25
Callum Twomey - 28

So please explain to me why all you BigFooty experts know more than these actual experts? Or is it just that you heard a BS rumour from a supposed club insider and then jumped on board?

Fox sports & Quayle both have us taking Tucker.

If Rhys ran a bottom 5% beep, he's undraftable in the top 30, just on inability to improve it from previous results. But did he really? Doesn't seem that bad in games.

 

[aussierulesrules]

If Rhys ran a bottom 5% beep, he's undraftable in the top 30, just on inability to improve it from previous results. But did he really? Doesn't seem that bad in games.

His beep was apparently better than Patrick Cripps' in his draft year and considerably better than Jackson Macrae's, in his year and they went at 13 and 6 respectively and have had approximately zero trouble transitioning to senior AFL level.

According to the article on Rhys in today's HS, his beep test result at the combine was also "a lot better" (than in the past), so it looks like it's well and truly heading in the right direction.

 

[Plugger_87]

Darcy Tucker please. We need outside runners who can kick

 

[busso_mick]

If Rhys ran a bottom 5% beep, he's undraftable in the top 30, just on inability to improve it from previous results. But did he really? Doesn't seem that bad in games.

With all due respect Rahul it is just another metric used to gauge a footballers athletic ability, not his footballing brain. As a matter of interest I wonder what Sam Mitchell or Diesel Williams would have produced in a beep test? It's a pity they can't test desire or will to win because Mathieson would be top tier, therefore top 30 easily. As you say he doesn't seem slow but if he can read the game and get to the next contest then it is a moot point. I am hoping we consider him strongly.

 

[VDS66]

Any chance we'll grab another contender for the GF sprint?

 

[Nutsngum]

I think that we can all agree if a miracle occured and Rice isnt bid on and Mathieson fell to our 2nd we would all be very happy.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

It's become trendy to bag Mathieson obviously.

Would be interested to hear from those who consider him a massive risk how often they've seen him play.

As I'm only going off what a few friends in recruiting have said and a handful of games that I've seen, I'd be interested in how this evaluation of Matho as a bust has come about.