Pick the Australian squad for the 2019 World Cup

Dec 20, 2014
26,333
21,512
Hong Kong
AFL Club
West Coast
Finch is a limited player whose successes come about when his batting partner manages to carry him at the start.

There is a high correlation between Finch scoring above 30 and his opening partner still being in after 10 overs.
But this wasn't the case in either of Finch's best scores at the World Cup.

Against England, Warner went in the eighth over but Finch went on to make 135. Against India, Warner went in the fourth over but Finch stuck around to make 81.
 
Jan 26, 2006
40,446
31,699
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
East Fremantle
But this wasn't the case in either of Finch's best scores at the World Cup.

Against England, Warner went in the eighth over but Finch went on to make 135. Against India, Warner went in the fourth over but Finch stuck around to make 81.

it's not always the case but it happens a lot.

Another thing with Warner is that there has been a clear jump in his performances since his suspension in 2013. He grew up and has improved as a player.

At test level

David Warner Tests.jpg


And at ODI level

David Warner ODI.jpg


Check how he performed in 2013/14 and 2014/15 compared to his career record at both test and ODI level.

It's a massive jump.

I'd suggest that we shouldn't give undue weight on his performances before that because there is a clear difference in how he has performed.

Likewise I wouldn't pay much attention to Smith's results at international level before 2013.
 
Jan 26, 2006
40,446
31,699
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
East Fremantle
Well, it didn't happen when he made 96 against India in January or when he made 76 against South Africa in November.

So that's Finch's last four ODI half-centuries where your theory doesn't hold.

1. In the semi final Smith carried him instead
2. Against England he was dropped early
3. Against the Indians Warner got out in the 9th over
4. Against the Saffers Smith carried him instead
 
Dec 20, 2014
26,333
21,512
Hong Kong
AFL Club
West Coast
1. In the semi final Smith carried him instead
2. Against England he was dropped early
3. Against the Indians Warner got out in the 9th over
4. Against the Saffers Smith carried him instead
Ah, so you've changed your opening statement to allow for the situations where it's shown to be false.

That's convenient.

I thought you'd have already looked at the detail before telling us about the 'high correlation'.
 
Jan 26, 2006
40,446
31,699
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
East Fremantle
A conservative selection that reflects the lack of a stand-out replacement for Haddin.

If you read the OP, you'll see I was only drawing from players who've already made ODI debuts.

Ah. So anyone else who decides to make a prediction should face ten + posts of your drivel whilst you can hide behind "conservative selections and the completely impossible premise of nobody managing to force themselves into the team over the next four years.

Show some balls and stop sitting on the fence if you want to call people out
 
Dec 20, 2014
26,333
21,512
Hong Kong
AFL Club
West Coast
Ah. So anyone else who decides to make a prediction should face ten + posts of your drivel whilst you can hide behind "conservative selections and the completely impossible premise of nobody managing to force themselves into the team over the next four years.
But I didn't object to any predictions. Nor did I say nobody would force themselves into the team in the next four years. Quite the opposite. I acknowledged the likelihood of that happening.

Let's not fabricate things out of thin air.

Show some balls and stop sitting on the fence if you want to call people out
Not sure what this means.

Again, I haven't objected to any predictions. Maybe you need to read my posts a bit more closely before getting your knickers in a knot.

It's not my fault your 'high correlation' about Finch collapsed after five seconds of scrutiny. Maybe you should have checked before telling everyone about it.
 
Last edited:
Jan 26, 2006
40,446
31,699
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
East Fremantle
But I didn't object to any predictions. Nor did I say nobody would force themselves into the team in the next four years. Quite the opposite. I acknowledged the likelihood of that happening.

Let's not fabricate things out of thin air.

Not sure what this means.

Again, I haven't objected to any predictions. Maybe you need to read my posts a bit more closely before getting your knickers in a knot.

It's not my fault your 'high correlation' about Finch collapsed after five seconds of scrutiny. Maybe you should have checked before telling everyone about it.

So what is your actual predicted squad.

Pick a squad that actual has any chance of happening.
 
Jan 26, 2006
40,446
31,699
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
East Fremantle
Surely this is addressed in the OP.

Don't make me laugh.

Warner made one half-century. Against Afghanistan.

He averaged 24 against Test-playing nations.

It's not addressed in OP because the idea that nobody could make their debuts over the next four years and play in the World Cup is completely ridiculous.

If you want to pick Wade or whoeevr, justify it.
 

PaddyO

Cancelled
Sep 8, 2014
1,106
897
Get off my lawn.
AFL Club
Richmond
Don't make me laugh.

Warner made one half-century. Against Afghanistan.

He averaged 24 against Test-playing nations.

You keep banging on about test playing nations. Let's actually look at Finch's WC in some detail.

Game 1- big ton against England, but should have been out on about 9. Spooned a catch as he commonly does which should have been taken but was dropped (Eng bowlers bowled complete s**t)

Game 2- 14 against NZ. Failure (NZ have a good bowling pace attack)

Game 3- Fails against Afgh.

Game 4 & 5- 20s against Sri Lanka and Scotland- fair enough starts but hardly anything special.

Game 6- Pakistan, scores 2, fails- very good pace attack.

Semi- 80 vs India. Decent knock against mediocre pace attack

Final- fails again against quality quick bowling.


Finch is always found out by good pace attacks. NZ and Pakistan and SA (and Aus) were the 3 teams in the WC with quality pace bowlers. Finch was nowhere to be found against any of them. Hardly what you want in an opening bat.
 
Dec 20, 2014
26,333
21,512
Hong Kong
AFL Club
West Coast
It's not addressed in OP because the idea that nobody could make their debuts over the next four years and play in the World Cup is completely ridiculous.
This was also addressed in the OP.

I totally accept that it's more likely than not that the 2019 WC squad won't be the same as the one I've posted.

Wouldn't you say the same for the squad you posted?

It's four years down the line. I'd be staggered if anyone picked it accurately.

If you want to pick Wade or whoeevr, justify it.
I don't think it's beyond the pale that Wade would still be in the mix. He was recently picked in both Australia A sides so I'm not so sure he's been discarded.

You keep banging on about test playing nations.
That's correct.

At a World Cup, I see a distinction between runs against Scotland and Afghanistan and runs against Test-quality sides.

If you think there's no distinction, then by all means say so. If that's your view, why not be explicit about it?

Finch is always found out by good pace attacks. NZ and Pakistan and SA (and Aus) were the 3 teams in the WC with quality pace bowlers. Finch was nowhere to be found against any of them. Hardly what you want in an opening bat.
And yet he's averaged 40 in ODIs since the start of 2014.

I'm not saying he's a superstar or even that he's a lock for the next World Cup. All I'm saying is that he's been doing a reasonable job and has been better performed than Warner.

Which part of that is unreasonable?
 
Last edited:
Jan 26, 2006
40,446
31,699
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
East Fremantle
This was also addressed in the OP.

I totally accept that it's more likely than not that the 2019 WC squad won't actually look like the one I've posted.

Wouldn't you say the same for the squad you posted?

It's four years down the line. I'd be staggered if anyone picked it accurately.

I don't think it's beyond the pale that Wade would still be in the mix. He was recently picked in both Australia A sides so I'm not so sure he's been discarded.

That's correct.

At a World Cup, I see a distinction between runs against Scotland and Afghanistan and runs against Test-quality sides.

If you think there's no distinction, then by all means say so. If that's your view, why not be explicit about it?

And yet he's averaged 40 in ODIs since the start of 2014.

I'm not saying he's a superstar or even that he's a lock for the next World Cup. All I'm saying is that he's been doing a reasonable job and has been better performed than Warner.

Which part of that is unreasonable?

And Warner has averaged 43.5 since the start of 2014

And you're right there is an argument for Wade's selection.

So select your team without hiding behind the idea of not selecting anyone who hasn't made his debut yet.

Is it the same squad as in your OP?

Yes or no?
 
Dec 20, 2014
26,333
21,512
Hong Kong
AFL Club
West Coast
And Warner has averaged 43.5 since the start of 2014
Do you see no distinction between runs against Afghanistan and runs against the Test-playing nations?

If not, say so. If that's your view, then be explicit about it.

If, however, you accept that runs against Afghanistan aren't exactly the real deal, then you should acknowledge that Warner's average is inflated by one big knock against associate opposition.

So select your team without hiding behind the idea of not selecting anyone who hasn't made his debut yet.
Again, this has been addressed in the OP.

I've posted a squad. But I accept that the actual squad in 2019 will end up looking different. Of course it will.

So I'm not sure why you keep asking me the same question.
 
Jan 26, 2006
40,446
31,699
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
East Fremantle
Do you see no distinction between runs against Afghanistan and runs against the Test-playing nations?

If not, say so. If that's your view, then be explicit about it.

If, however, you accept that runs against Afghanistan aren't exactly the real deal, then you should acknowledge that Warner's average is inflated by one big knock against associate opposition.

Again, this has been addressed in the OP.

I've posted a squad. But I accept that the actual squad in 2019 will end up looking different. Of course it will.

So I'm not sure why you keep asking me the same question.

And take out that innings and he still averages a perfectly acceptable 37 since the start of 2014.

So you accept that your squad is completely bunk. Interesting that you go and on about decisions made by other posters whilst hiding from actually making an actual attempt to predict a squad.
 

PaddyO

Cancelled
Sep 8, 2014
1,106
897
Get off my lawn.
AFL Club
Richmond
That's correct.

At a World Cup, I see a distinction between runs against Scotland and Afghanistan and runs against Test-quality sides.

If you think there's no distinction, then by all means say so. If that's your view, why not be explicit about it?

Woah there tiger!

Sure, I rate runs against quality pace attacks and I expect openers to get them (sometimes).

How about you address what I actually posted, which is that Finch failed against NZ, Pakistan and SA, the three sides with legitimately good pace attacks. The runs against "test quality sides" that Finch got were against England (who bowled half track s**t all night after they dropped him on next to nothing), and India, who haven't got a decent quick bowler in their entire country.
 
Dec 20, 2014
26,333
21,512
Hong Kong
AFL Club
West Coast
And take out that innings and he still averages a perfectly acceptable 37 since the start of 2014.
Sure. It's not bad.

But, like I said, Finch has been better performed. Again, this is all I've been saying throughout. And it's not remotely controversial.

It's like you're trying desperately to find a way to disagree but just can't quite grab hold of anything. It's fun watching you try.

So you accept that your squad is completely bunk.
Not at all.

I accept that the 2019 WC squad won't be identical to what I've named here, four years in advance. That's not the same as all of it being "complete bunk".

You also named a squad. Do you think the eventual 2019 WC squad will be identical to what you posted? If not, I guess it must be complete bunk? Right?

Interesting that you go and on about decisions made by other posters whilst hiding from actually making an actual attempt to predict a squad.
Again, I'm comfortable with the squad presented in the OP. It's there, so I'm not sure why you'd insist otherwise.

As for 'decisions' made by other posters, I'm not sure what that means. They can make whatever 'decisions' they like.
 
Dec 20, 2014
26,333
21,512
Hong Kong
AFL Club
West Coast
Sure, I rate runs against quality pace attacks and I expect openers to get them (sometimes).
Do you accept that there is a distinction between runs against Test-playing nations and runs against Afghanistan and Scotland?

Simple question. Not sure why you'd try to avoid it. Unless you know that a straightforward answer would make it harder to gild the Warner lily?

How about you address what I actually posted, which is that Finch failed against NZ, Pakistan and SA, the three sides with legitimately good pace attacks. The runs against "test quality sides" that Finch got were against England (who bowled half track s**t all night after they dropped him on next to nothing), and India, who haven't got a decent quick bowler in their entire country.
You realise we didn't actually play against SA, right?

Although, if you look at our last ODI series against South Africa, Finch scored 250 runs at 50. Not bad, right? Warner, on the other hand, made 124 runs at 24. So who was better performed?

That aside, you discredit Finch's runs against England and India but Warner didn't make scores against them, did he? If these sides are so s**t, why didn't Warner make those scores? The runs have to come from somewhere. Turns out they came from Finch.

The reality is that Finch's contribution against Test-playing sides at the World Cup was still pretty reasonable. Warner's, on the other hand, was not.
 
Last edited:
Jan 26, 2006
40,446
31,699
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
East Fremantle
I accept that the 2019 WC squad won't be identical to what I've named here, four years in advance. That's not the same as all of it being "complete bunk".

You also named a squad. Do you think the eventual 2019 WC squad will be identical to what you posted? If not, I guess it must be complete bunk? Right?

e.

I didn't pick a squad based on a fundamental impossible principle and I'm not hiding from any criticism of my squad by saying that I selected it based on an ridiculous selection policy.
 
Dec 20, 2014
26,333
21,512
Hong Kong
AFL Club
West Coast
I didn't pick a squad based on a fundamental impossible principle and I'm not hiding from any criticism of my squad by saying that I selected it based on an ridiculous selection policy.
Who's hiding from criticism? Criticise it to your heart's content if you like.

But I openly acknowledge that my 'prediction' - if we can call it that - is doomed to fail. I don't imagine for a second I'd be able to accurately predict the 2019 squad four years in advance. So criticism would only be pointing out the obvious. Low-hanging fruit, if you like.
 
Last edited:

PaddyO

Cancelled
Sep 8, 2014
1,106
897
Get off my lawn.
AFL Club
Richmond
Do you accept that there is a distinction between runs against Test-playing nations and runs against Afghanistan and Scotland?

Simple question. Not sure why you'd try to avoid it. Unless you know that a straightforward answer would make it harder to gild the Warner lily?

Sure, and do you accept that there's a difference between runs against India's quicks and runs against NZ's or Pakistan's quicks?

I don't need to gild Warner's lily. My position is that Finch is an overrated hack who's often found out against good bowling.
 
Dec 20, 2014
26,333
21,512
Hong Kong
AFL Club
West Coast
Sure, and do you accept that there's a difference between runs against India's quicks and runs against NZ's or Pakistan's quicks?
I accept that some teams have better quicks than others. But I wouldn't make any specific statistical allowance for this.

India are a pretty good ODI side so I'm not sure I'd be devaluing runs against them while more heavily weighting runs against Pakistan. That doesn't seem like a sound suggestion.

They're all Test-playing nations so should statistically be treated as being on the same plane.

Is that unreasonable?

I don't need to gild Warner's lily. My position is that Finch is an overrated hack who's often found out against good bowling.
What about Finch's runs in the series against South Africa? Just ignoring those, are we?

As for the World Cup, what about Warner? He was found out by s**t bowling as well, I suppose?

He had to wait until we faced Afghanistan before he made a 50.
 
Back