Player values - Increase, hold or decline.

[fronkalicious]

Wanted to take a quick look at our 23 and under guys to get a feel for whether we think their values have gone up, down or held, since being drafted. Harder to do with the older guys as they obviously have less trade value the older they get. Have left off the rookies and the young guys we've traded for (Koby, Young, Darley).

Wallis - Pick 22. Hold. Well worth a pick in the 20s I would suggest.
Bonti - Pick 4. Increase. Hard to believe but I think his value is even higher than pick 4 right now.
Dahlhaus - Rookie. Increase. Worth a first rounder for sure.
Stringer - Pick 5. Hold. Graph definitely going in the right direction.
Macrae - Pick 6. Increase. Don't think any of us would trade him for pick 6. I wouldn't even trade him for pick 1.
Clay Smith - Pick 17. Decline. Injuries. Probably about on par with his draft position pre-injuries.
Tutt - Pick 31. Decline. 4th round pick at best would be his value I'd suggest.
Roberts - Rookie. Increase. Really like Fletch. Hard to gauge what his trade value would be, but more than a rookie selection its fair to say.
Jones - Pick 32. Hold. Inconsistent but has shown he can win games at AFL level. Bigs take time and also hold their trade value pretty well.
Pearce - pick 49. Decline. No trade value. I like him though and hope we keep him for next season.
Libba - Pick 41. increase. Nothing need be said.
Honeychurch - Pick 60. Hold. Would love today increase, which is highly likely, but hard to say how league-wide value would be much more than a late 3rd/early 4th off 3 games .
Roughie - Pick 31. increase. Worth a first rounder IMO.
Hrovat - PIck 21. Hold. Love him to death, and I wouldn't trade him for a 1st rounder, but hard to imagine him netting much more than a late 1st/early second round pick.
Hunter - Pick 49. increase. At least worth a late 1st/early second round pick.
Prudden - Pick 50. Decline. Would have zero trade value.
Howard - Pick 15. DECLINE. Zero trade value. Next…….
Talia - Pick 39. increase. Many may disagree, but id be shocked if he wouldn't at least command a late 1st/early second round pick if on the market.
JJ - Rookie. Increase. Good talent. Wouldnt be surprised if a 2nd round pick was his value.
Campbell - Rookie - Increase. Definitely get a 2nd rounder for the big guy.
Cordy - Pick 14. Decline. Bugger all value I would have thought.

Overall tally:

Increase - 10.
Hold - 5
Decline - 6.

Very rough metric obviously, but does give an indication that we're using our assets well.

 

[timtamWB]

Hard to disagree with any of those, but I think Honey has shown enough to at least warrant anearly 3rd with his VFL form and what he's shown in the AFL. And I really want to say increase for Hrovat, and he definitely would be for us, but not sure about other clubs.

 

[Leezorr]

I like the idea, but i still think Draft picks are overrated, i bet if you asked the draft board if they would swap pick 1 for Macrea you wouldn't get much love, but imo he is exactly what you want, people have this idea that potential is greater than what has been shown and i think the AFL as a whole looks to have gone this way, pick 1 is a not a guaranteed gun, but Jack Macrea is.

 

[lachy]

Good analysis Fronk. Hard to have strong disagreement with any of those on exposed form. Probably only Tallia as a hold but you have explained your reasoning.

Good work

 

[Syrah]

All good BUT that Howard/Tutt draft? What were we thinking?

 

[Reptilia]

Wouldn't trade bontempelli or macrae for a first round pick either.. !

 

[fronkalicious]

Kind of illustrates that top quality talents are worth more than first round picks. Macrae and Bonti are everything you hope your first round pick will be. First round picks can also end up as J Grant, Tommy Williams, Cale Morton, Jack Watts etc.

 

[immortalmike]

Great work Fronk.
However, a couple of nitpicks. Smith being a decline actually is probably wrong as that was a expansion ravaged draft and that pick 17 was more like a pick 25-30ish, even with injuries he's worth more than that. Hrovat is worth more than pick 21, so I'd say increase especially after the rising star nom. Honey church would be worth more than pick 60 given his excellent VFL form and the fact that he's earned AFL games. Oh and Roberts was a pre-season draft pick not a rookie.

 

[dogwatch]

Pretty much on the money Fronk. I agree with others that if you put Honey up for auction you'd probably get a pick in the 40s for him, maybe even high 30s.

 

[fargy]

Great thread Fronk and I think it would be interesting to check against other clubs recruiting. People switched on to our form last year, this year they are switching on to our talent (although Dermy?! was on to our talent at the start of the year)

 

[TedDougChris]

You've been too kind on Howards trade value sadly......

 

[Mofra]

Talia - Pick 39. increase. Many may disagree, but id be shocked if he wouldn't at least command a late 1st/early second round pick if on the market.

Good effort, but I'd have to disagree here.

Talia has a number of things to work on, although he has improved his kicking from "woeful" to simply "bad"

 

[King Harold]

Good effort, but I'd have to disagree here.

Talia has a number of things to work on, although he has improved his kicking from "woeful" to simply "bad"

Sorry but that is simply wrong.
It may look ugly , but I have seen a fair bit of him this year , it can't be described as bad.

 

[timtamWB]

Good effort, but I'd have to disagree here.

Talia has a number of things to work on, although he has improved his kicking from "woeful" to simply "bad"

I'd say "below average"

 

[cleveland]

roberts wasnt a rookie....he was selected in the preseason draft

 

[immortalmike]

I'd say "below average"

I'd say "okay".

 

[TheHoneyBadger]

I'd say Talia's kicking is okay too. He's upgraded the kicking style from train wreck to car accident, aesthetically, but he's done a lot of work and he's much better for it. He can still get better but I don't bite my nails when he has the ball inside defensive 50 anymore.

 

[Spiritof82]

You can't really rate the F/S's relative to where they were chosen in the draft because they were only selected in those positions because other clubs wanted to force our hand and make us take then in a high position, otherwise they may have all been taken with our last couple of picks. I don't think any club has lost out in the bluff of nominating another clubs F/S yet and had to take them. The selection of Wallis and Libratore could've been the other way around, its just someone wanted to force us to use our first draft pick and second draft pick, they knew we wanted both players and they didn't care in what order we took them, they just wanted the picks removed from the system.

 

[AjsGuns]

Wallis - Pick 22. Hold. Well worth a pick in the 20s I would suggest.
Bonti - Pick 4. Increase. Hard to believe but I think his value is even higher than pick 4 right now.
Stringer - Pick 5. Hold. Graph definitely going in the right direction.
Macrae - Pick 6. Increase. Don't think any of us would trade him for pick 6. I wouldn't even trade him for pick 1.
Clay Smith - Pick 17. Decline. Injuries. Probably about on par with his draft position pre-injuries.

Those 5 have been our 1st rounders over the past 4 years, great thing is we have nailed them and not wasted them like we have previously on Howard and Grant etc.

Would say Bonti at #4 and Macrae at #6 were amazing gets, or at least seem to be atm. If we redid the draft today Bonti would go at #2 (After Boyd) in his draft and Macrae would go top #3, probably #1 (Whitfield, Wines and Macae slugging it out) in his.
Stringer at #5 imo will turn out to be a great get but its too early to make a call there.
Wallis and Smith at #22 and #17 are breakevens considering no one after Smith is very good in his draft year and Wallis was considered a top 10 pick and Libba a top 20 pick but obviously got them with f/s picks.

so 2 wins, 2 breakevens and 1 that is too early to make a call on. Obviously got Libba, Dahl and Hunter as steals too who would all be worth top 15 picks, Libba a top 3 pick.

 

[Toastman]

You can't really rate the F/S's relative to where they were chosen in the draft because they were only selected in those positions because other clubs wanted to force our hand and make us take then in a high position, otherwise they may have all been taken with our last couple of picks. I don't think any club has lost out in the bluff of nominating another clubs F/S yet and had to take them. The selection of Wallis and Libratore could've been the other way around, its just someone wanted to force us to use our first draft pick and second draft pick, they knew we wanted both players and they didn't care in what order we took them, they just wanted the picks removed from the system.

I think more than that, both Libba and Wallace were considered top 10 in the draft so teams would have been crazy not to nominate them before our pick at 22 and we would have been crazy not to take up the offer. I believe both were nominated by the same team at the same pick and we chose the order based upon their personalities so you could equally consider Libba as 22 and Wallis as 41 and it wouldn't be incorrect.