Polls Thread Mk III

[NTRabbit]

That's the problem with having a less important member be leader to take one for the team in opposition, if the government turns out to be so terrible they wouldn't survive a DD, switching leaders again lets the Murdoch press harp on about knives again.

 

[Juddism]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5625-preferred-leader-l-np-alp-june-2014-201406060420

Preferred leader poll shows Turnbull has a 29% lead over Abbott.

 

[swansfan51]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5625-preferred-leader-l-np-alp-june-2014-201406060420

Preferred leader poll shows Turnbull has a 29% lead over Abbott.

That poll shows that LNP voters prefer Abbott to Turnbull. When combined with the fact most LNP MPs don't like Turnbull, he's a huge long shot.

 

[NTRabbit]

Which is pretty ideal - the best result for all concerned is for Turnbull to try to roll Abbott for the leadership, lose by a couple of votes, and then quit the party taking a bunch of other members with him.

If Turnbull takes over, he removes some of the more socially conservative contentious issues from the budget and gets the rest of the neoliberal horror show past the senate with the orders of magnitude more charm he has over Abbott.

My way Half-term Abbott ends in tears, the Libs split into one part a party made of people actually true to the original Liberal ideal under Malcolm, the other part a good sermon away from joining the lunatic fringe in family first, the budget doesn't get passed by the Senate, and we have a long overdue new dynamic in parliament.

 

[swansfan51]

the Libs split into one part a party made of people actually true to the original Liberal ideal under Malcolm

Hopefully all the ones that oppose income tax increases and oppose increasing government spending defect and join the LDP (the only party worthy of carrying the Liberal name at the moment).

 

[Hank Scorpion]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5625-preferred-leader-l-np-alp-june-2014-201406060420

Preferred leader poll shows Turnbull has a 29% lead over Abbott.

LNP Voters prefer Abbott. The leader preference of Labor voters is only significant to swing voters. There would be a huge proportion of people inflating Turnbull's leadership preference in the ALP who are never going to voter for the Coalition anyway.

Where are these 9% of people that prefer Wayne Swan??? And Macklin 5% ?

When combined with the fact most LNP MPs don't like Turnbull, he's a huge long shot.

If the polls are projecting half of the MPs to lose their seats six months out from the election, they'll be liking him a lot more.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

What does it matter of Lib votes don't like Turnbull? They aren't going to vote for Labor ahead of him.

 

[swansfan51]

What does it matter of Lib votes don't like Turnbull? They aren't going to vote for Labor ahead of him.

Because if the majority want Abbott over Turnbull it becomes less likely that Turnbull will win a leadership challenge.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Because if the majority want Abbott over Turnbull it becomes less likely that Turnbull will win a leadership challenge.

Can't see the powers that be happily continuing to back their favourite man if he's going to lead them to a loss.

 

[pjcrows]

Can't see the powers that be happily continuing to back their favourite man if he's going to lead them to a loss.

Just ask Jules.

 

[tandino]

We've been talking about PPM polls on this thread for near on five years, and they have been pointless for five years.

 

[Gough]

We've been talking about PPM polls on this thread for near on five years, and they have been pointless for five years.

Agreed, but I don't think at any point in the last five years has A.N. Other been more popular than the incumbent.

 

[tandino]

Agreed, but I don't think at any point in the last five years has A.N. Other been more popular than the incumbent.

But have at look at the Morgan numbers, Abbott's down only 1% since July last year. i.e, tell us something we don't know.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

ReachTel - Queensland State Polling (1820 Respondents):
Primary vote (swings from '12 election)
LNP: 41 (-9)
Labor: 34 (+7)
PUP: 14
Green: 5 (-2)

TPP
LNP: 53 (-10)
Labor: 47 (+10)

Leaders' performance (good)-(poor)
Newman: 30-49
Palaszczuk: 26-38

Opinion of state budget:
Very Good/Good: 24
Average: 24
Poor/Very Poor: 46

Sale of assets to reduce debt?:
Support: 24
Oppose: 52

https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7news-sunday-mail-queensland-the-state-were-in-2014-costofliving

 

[pjcrows]

Heard Essential is 54-46 Labor, unsure of primaries etc.

That's significant.

 

[poller]

Heard Essential is 54-46 Labor, unsure of primaries etc.

That's significant.

Labor 40%

coalition 37%

http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

 

[Roobs321]

As bad as Abbott's polls may go, it's hard to see too many people switching their vote over to Shorten/Plibersek instead. I think they are my least favourite leader/deputy in quite some time, can't stand either of them. And in reality it's the wisest and most harmless team they could assemble at the minute too.

 

[poller]

As bad as Abbott's polls may go, it's hard to see too many people switching their vote over to Shorten/Plibersek instead. I think they are my least favourite leader/deputy in quite some time, can't stand either of them. And in reality it's the wisest and most harmless team they could assemble at the minute too.

Abbott being scared of calling his promised early election , may show even the liberal party's own polling must be worst then the opinion polling

Otherwise Abbott would test the opinion polling

 

[Todman]

Abbott being scared of calling his promised early election , may show even the liberal party's own polling must be worst then the opinion polling

Otherwise Abbott would test the opinion polling

What would you rather? Abbott sticking to Liberal party principles

or

Abbott changing to become a populus Prime Minister, supporting all the popular causes no matter how hypocritical they are?

 

[Pessimistic]

What would you rather? Abbott sticking to Liberal party principles

or

Abbott changing to become a populus Prime Minister, supporting all the popular causes no matter how hypocritical they are?

Hes all things to all people, esp in a farxhole with obama

 

[Gough]

What would you rather? Abbott sticking to Liberal party principles

or

Abbott changing to become a populus Prime Minister, supporting all the popular causes no matter how hypocritical they are?

He hasn't learned from history. Rudd sold himself as Howard lite, when he didn't need to and look how well that went. Similarity TA went with the unity ticket on health and education only to back away on his first budget. He's a dumb politician.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Roy Morgan Research - 637 Sample size
Should Australia reduce CO2 emissions? (Yes-No), voting intention also shown
Total: 88-10

ALP: 96-2
Coalition: 81-17
Green: 98-0
PUP: 76-20


Should Abbott repeal the carbon tax? (Yes-No)
Total: 47-46

ALP: 20-75
Coalition: 82-11
Green: 5-95
PUP: 60-40


http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5637-carbon-tax-global-warming-june-2014-201406130615

 

[samFFC]

What would you rather? Abbott sticking to Liberal party principles

or

Abbott changing to become a populus Prime Minister, supporting all the popular causes no matter how hypocritical they are?

Is Liberal party principles to:
a) Raise taxes on the wealthy?
b) Introduce a $5.5bn/year paid parental leave scheme?
c) Make university more expensive, thus reducing the pool of potential professionals and business owners of the future?
d) Waste billions on offshore processing of asylum seekers?

e) Break numerous pre-election promises?

 

[swansfan51]

Is Liberal party principles to:
a) Raise taxes on the wealthy? High income earners are not the same as wealthy, but in any event - No
b) Introduce a $5.5bn/year paid parental leave scheme? Hell no
c) Make university more expensive, thus reducing the pool of potential professionals and business owners of the future? It isn't about making it more expensive, it is about having individuals take more of the cost themselves, so yes on this one. Deregulation is also consistent with party principles
d) Waste billions on offshore processing of asylum seekers? No
e) Break numerous pre-election promises? No

This budget gets a poor scorecard from most true Liberals I know.

 

[poller]

What would you rather? Abbott sticking to Liberal party principles

or

Abbott changing to become a populus Prime Minister, supporting all the popular causes no matter how hypocritical they are?

If Abbott stick to the party principles he would call his early election which he promised

Abbott has changed his so called popular cause , such as the ppl it was $150,000 now its aligned with the greens

what changed his mind the bad opinion polling