Polls Thread Mk III

[RobbieGray17]

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I'm getting a feeling a leadership challenge is gaining momentum.

Also with respect to the polls Hank Scorpion Roy Morgan have further statistics on their polls. By that I mean you can't just grab a 2pp using last elections preferencing, because they too would increase in trend to Labor from the previous election. Last time I asked them the 2pp was even greater for a predicted outcome based. Apologies if this is taken into account with your polling post.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I'm getting a feeling a leadership challenge is gaining momentum.

Also with respect to the polls Hank Scorpion Roy Morgan have further statistics on their polls. By that I mean you can't just grab a 2pp using last elections preferencing, because they too would increase in trend to Labor from the previous election. Last time I asked them the 2pp was even greater for a predicted outcome based. Apologies if this is taken into account with your polling post.

Combining the Queensland Election with another tough budget could lead to some interesting internal movements.


Not necessarily.

ALP Federal preference flows from minor parties
2013: 62%
2010: 65%
2007: 63%
2004: 61%
2001: 59%
1998: 53%
1996: 54%
1993: 60%
1990: 61%

Colour denotes party with overall TPP swing. Instances where ALP TPP vote and share of minor party preferences both increased/decreased are bolded.

Only three of eight cases did the same party increase their TPP, and increase their share of minor party preferences. Preference flows are too unpredictable to try and factor them when making judgments about the the current TPP.

Most pollsters (and consequently BludgerTrack) use preference flows from the 2013 election.


Data figures:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/11/preference-flows-at-the-2013-federal-election.html
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/10/preference-flows-at-the-2010-election.html
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo...application/pdf#search="library/prspub/MYRK6"

 

[Hank Scorpion]

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Can't believe Howard got 12% or that Costello got 30%, those how tipped Howard obviously don't remember his time as treasurer.

 

[Gough]

Can't believe Howard got 12% or that Costello got 30%, those how tipped Howard obviously don't remember his time as treasurer.

A walk along the Sydney Harbour in a Wallabies tracksuit was enough to convince the nation that Howard was a great leader. These are the same people who voted for Abbott because he was a volunteer fireman and surf lifesaver.

 

[NTRabbit]

Costello and Howard were economic vandals, but as they've managed to convince everyone via repetition, Liberals are better economic managers

 

[Pessimistic]

A walk along the Sydney Harbour in a Wallabies tracksuit was enough to convince the nation that Howard was a great leader. These are the same people who voted for Abbott because he was a volunteer fireman and surf lifesaver.

Volunteer ?

 

[Gough]

Tax payer subsidised fireman? Be cheaper to get a real one you'd think.

 

[imadodgyumpire]

Wouldn't trust Costello as treasurer of my Cricket club.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Newspoll Quarterlies (Oct-Dec)

Primaries: (Swing from Jul-Sept), [Swing from '13 Election]
Coalition: 37, (-2), [-8.6]
ALP: 38, (+3), [+4.7]
Greens: 12, (-), [+3.3]


State: ALP-Coalition, (Swing to ALP from Jul-Sept), [Swing to ALP from '13 Election]
NSW+ACT: 54-46, (+2), [+7.6]
VIC: 60-40, (+2), [+9.8]
QLD: 52-48, (+1), [+9.0]
WA: 47-53, (+1), [+5.3]
SA: 54-46, (+3), [+6.4]

National: 54-46, (+2), [+7.5]


Leadership ratings are fairly steady.

Other quirks:
Labor vote still sluggish in WA: 30% (Green vote at 15%)
Green vote at 17% in Victoria
Abbott's net satisfaction dropped by 10 points in South Australia


Full details: http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/12/26/1227167/481924-aus-file-federal-newspoll.pdf

 

[Maggie5]

Shorten still has to pull up his socks if he wants to be PM. Currently Labor in front by default.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Shorten still has to pull up his socks if he wants to be PM. Currently Labor in front by default.

Seems to be the way of things. Last federal election it was 'anybody but Gillard/Rudd'. Now it is anybody but 'Abbott/LNP'. In Qld, it was clearly 'just get Labor out'. Now a massive majority (understatement) for a first term government looks to have eroded because of arrogance and broken promises that hit thousands. It's a bit of a popularity contest. Children asking Mum for a lolly, Mum says no so they go ask Dad.

You have to play the popularity game to get in, but are never going to pull it off. Hit hard early, then offer cynical inducements late to make out you're not such a bad guy and should be re-elected ... rinse, lather, repeat.

Too many attacking the other side, zero humility, zero regard for public intelligence thus smear and scare campaigns are generated on both sides.

I tend to err on the side that won't have people worried about making the mortgage and might give them time to pay off their past spending misdeeds before asking them to get less to make the budget add up so one side can win political points. Treat people as if they are people, not just potential votes.

 

[Maggie5]

Seems to be the way of things. Last federal election it was 'anybody but Gillard/Rudd'. Now it is anybody but 'Abbott/LNP'. In Qld, it was clearly 'just get Labor out'. Now a massive majority (understatement) for a first term government looks to have eroded because of arrogance and broken promises that hit thousands. It's a bit of a popularity contest. Children asking Mum for a lolly, Mum says no so they go ask Dad.

You have to play the popularity game to get in, but are never going to pull it off. Hit hard early, then offer cynical inducements late to make out you're not such a bad guy and should be re-elected ... rinse, lather, repeat.

Too many attacking the other side, zero humility, zero regard for public intelligence thus smear and scare campaigns are generated on both sides.

I tend to err on the side that won't have people worried about making the mortgage and might give them time to pay off their past spending misdeeds before asking them to get less to make the budget add up so once side can win political points. Treat people as if they are people, not just potential votes.

Totally agree, that is why I think that the next 6 months Shorten really has to get out front to show that he is more than in front due to the disapproval of the current government. Not just show where their policies are wrong but to offer up Labor policies, like climate change, jobs (real ones), social policies even if it means an increase in medicare. Explain why some of the hard decisions will be necessary. I think the public are ready for this type of honesty and gives them time to get used to the idea.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Totally agree, that is why I think that the next 6 months Shorten really has to get out front to show that he is more than in front due to the disapproval of the current government. Not just show where their policies are wrong but to offer up Labor policies, like climate change, jobs (real ones), social policies even if it means an increase in medicare. Explain why some of the hard decisions will be necessary. I think the public are ready for this type of honesty and gives them time to get used to the idea.

He can't offer up these policies. The game is to reveal these things to give the least possible time for the scare campaign to seep in.

Climate change ..... look out, Shorten is looking to reintroduce the big bad carbon tax (or from the other perspective ... the GST all those years ago), how is he going to pay for this? Any increases are a tax (but you had a go at us over taxes and levies). He has to play the long range game because there will be no objective debate about any policy released now and he has to let Abbott be painted into an irretrievable corner so he can not come back from it. Having said that, a leadership change by the LNP with Shorten having not done anything to further himself, would turn things around quick smart.

I do think the public are ready for this type of honesty but how do you get it out there? The LNP would bury him, and the media will go along for the ride. Perception is everything and honesty is a flaw to be exploited when the word is being disseminated.

 

[RUNVS]

He can't offer up these policies. The game is to reveal these things to give the least possible time for the scare campaign to seep in.

Climate change ..... look out, Shorten is looking to reintroduce the big bad carbon tax (or from the other perspective ... the GST all those years ago), how is he going to pay for this? Any increases are a tax (but you had a go at us over taxes and levies). He has to play the long range game because there will be no objective debate about any policy released now and he has to let Abbott be painted into an irretrievable corner so he can not come back from it. Having said that, a leadership change by the LNP with Shorten having not done anything to further himself, would turn things around quick smart.

I do think the public are ready for this type of honesty but how do you get it out there? The LNP would bury him, and the media will go along for the ride. Perception is everything and honesty is a flaw to be exploited when the word is being disseminated.

I think Shorten should reveal all of Labor's policies including income tax increases to fix the budget before the end of 2015. Yes it will lead to a scare campaign from the Liberals but Labor has to show that they are being honest and trust the Australian people to know that to fix the budget taxes will need to be increased. At least then if they win they will actually be able to fix the budget rather than trying to fix it with their hands tied behind their backs.

 

[spinynorman]

I think Shorten should reveal all of Labor's policies including income tax increases to fix the budget before the end of 2015. Yes it will lead to a scare campaign from the Liberals but Labor has to show that they are being honest and trust the Australian people to know that to fix the budget taxes will need to be increased. At least then if they win they will actually be able to fix the budget rather than trying to fix it with their hands tied behind their backs.

Yes, generally taxes need to be raised. However, we're having a huge slowdown with the economy and are at risk of falling into a recession. That's not the time to take money out of the economy. Just as this government is stupid in heavily cutting government spending at a time of a slowdown, it's also unwise to raise taxes at that time (unless you likewise increase spending a large amount).

Unfortunately the Right have fed us this argument, with no basis in truth, about budget deficits being this huge issue. But when we're at risk of a recession, they're pretty much essential unless you want the economy to fall apart. "Paying off the debt" shouldn't be the #1 priority, having people in work in jobs that pay them a living wage should be.

 

[Pessimistic]

Shorten still has to pull up his socks if he wants to be PM. Currently Labor in front by default.

ALP should have shown some cojones and installed him before the last election instead of Rudd. Then the actual task of taking these fools down would have been easier.

Its refreshing to see this terrorism paranoia isnt giving Abbott a Howard like patriotism boost. Funny how it trends people to vote conservative yet all these atrocities happen on their watch

 

[Slax]

ALP should have shown some cojones and installed him before the last election instead of Rudd. Then the actual task of taking these fools down would have been easier.

Its refreshing to see this terrorism paranoia isnt giving Abbott a Howard like patriotism boost. Funny how it trends people to vote conservative yet all these atrocities happen on their watch

Abbott is just that far removed from the electorate it isn't funny. His comments on our terror alert show that. He is just a pure embarassment to the country and that bad a performer in Canberra it isn't funny.

The Libs also aren't doing themselves any favours having Browyn in the Speakers chair. She is making a mockery of parliament with her bias and it is helping put the electorate offside.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

lel

Newspoll - Oct-Dec 2014 SA State Polling:
Primary vote (swings from Jul-Sep), [swings from March election]
Labor: 35 (+1), [-1]
Liberal: 33 (-3), [-12]
Green: 10 (+1), [+1]

TPP (swings from Jul-Sep), [swings from March election]
Labor: 53 (+2), [+6]
Liberal: 47 (-2), [-6]

Popularity (satisfied)-(dissatisfied), (swings from Jul-Sep)
Weatherill: 46-42, (+1)-(+5)
Marshall: 35-42, (-5)-(+8)

Preferred Premier (swings from Jul-Sep)
Weatherill: 47 (+2)
Marshall: 29 (-1)


Davenport was only won on 8.1% last election. At a general election, with a retiring member & uniform swing, it would be 50-50. The Liberals will be hoping people decide to give Labor a kick at a by-election (although given the federal figures for SA, the protest vote could actually work against them).

 

[NTRabbit]

Not sure I see a voter kick to Labor happening, they've not actually done anything wrong yet this term, it's all been pretty smooth sailing for the SA government iirc

 

[medusala]

A walk along the Sydney Harbour in a Wallabies tracksuit was enough to convince the nation that Howard was a great leader.

It was the matching tie and hankie in the breast pocket (and trimmed eye brows)!

 

[Slax]

Can't believe Howard got 12% or that Costello got 30%, those how tipped Howard obviously don't remember his time as treasurer.

There are a lot of dumb people out there, Howard should be competing with Hockey as the worst, the state of the economy when Hawke won government was terrible and far worse than what Swan handed to Hockey.

 

[Lebbo73]

Can't believe Howard got 12% or that Costello got 30%, those how tipped Howard obviously don't remember his time as treasurer.

I agree. Costello should of received Howard's votes!

 

[RUNVS]

When do the next federal polls come out? I am interested to see how much the recent controversy with cutting the amount of money Medicare pays to doctors has affected Abbott and the Coalition in general.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

When do the next federal polls come out? I am interested to see how much the recent controversy with cutting the amount of money Medicare pays to doctors has affected Abbott and the Coalition in general.

There have been one or two (I think Morgan and Essential,) but I'm hesitant to put too much stock in any figures taken from the holiday period. (People really aren't thinking about politics at the moment).

There'll be a few more Queensland polls in the next few weeks. I'd expect a federal Newspoll to be taken in early February, just before parliament resumes.