The last roy morgan poll was the 3rd and 10th. 54.5 to 45.5. Afforementioned we need more activity.
Polls Thread Mk III
- Thread starter Caesar
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Jan 13, 2001
- 15,892
- 6,917
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Man City
On the federal scene can't see the need, the trend has been hold at around the 54-46 to Labor for some time and recent events aren't going to be changing anything.
Misread me. We agree.
- Jan 13, 2001
- 15,892
- 6,917
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Man City
Focus will be on Qld over next two weeks and then shifting to NSW. Both elections will be a question of how much ground Labor can claw back. If Labor gets over 48% TPP in either then it is really bad news for Abbott.
I wonder if they will give the axe to abbott. Hes already running 3rd among his own party pref leader. And given joe hockey said if we do what labor did, we would automatically be as bad as them. But they kind of ****ed that up didnt they.
- Jan 13, 2001
- 15,892
- 6,917
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Man City
Hockey is as big a liability as Abbott and he knows that the only way he will keep his prized job as Treasurer is if Abbott stay PM. All the mail I am getting is that he'd be dumped in the reshuffle that would follow and replaced quickly, leading candidate is Turnbull but he is no certainty.
Malcolm being begged to come back be like
Surely, it comes down to Morrison vs. Turnbull. The problem would be that both are still stuck with what appears to be a collection of underwhelming talent on the front-bench.
The challenge then becomes to change the narrative. I could see that being harder for Morrison because his views align with the tribalism that a lot of the others share; by contrast, Turnbull stands slightly apart. The challenge for him is that many of the other big names (Pyne, Hockey etc.) don't trust him.
If he did get the gig, he might be smart to bring in some talent from the back-bench, though I don't know enough about what's there to say that would work.
GOAUS!
Norm Smith Medallist
- Apr 20, 2010
- 9,782
- 7,519
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
I wonder if Bishop would be considering a tilt too. Julie that is.
- Sep 19, 2007
- 19,066
- 17,620
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
- Other Teams
- Anaheim Ducks, PSV Eindhoven
Bronnie would probably sacrifice her 2 daughters to be PM.
- Jan 13, 2001
- 15,892
- 6,917
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Man City
Most definitely and she is definitely a strong chance to win it too. Has performed well as foreign affairs minister, well spoken and made no gaffs. Turnbull is unacceptable to the majority of the Liberal Party as he is too left (centre really) for them. Morrisson is appealling to those who want a hard nosed leader like Abbott, but will also suffer from what is Abbott biggest problem, his in ability to deal with the Senate, Bishop I believe would have a far better success rate with the Senate.
The big bonus for Bishop is that all the polls indicate that the public would warm to her, can't say that for Morrisson. Labor went to Rudd purely to save seats at the last election and would've saved more if Rudd had been smart enough to call a snap election when he took over the leadership. The Libs are now languishing in the polls to such an extent that having to take similar action is a real possibility.
It's up to the government to create policy, currently all they have is Plan A, when that fails they throw their hands up and say you do better to the opposition, but that is not their job so far out from an election. Abbott never put up policy so why should Shorten, to do so now is risking a backlash in the polls if you don't get it right.
The Old Dark Navy's
Moderator
- Moderator
- #862
The benefit of being in opposition. You get to watch what the government stuff up, call them on it, change what you might do a thousand times in private, decide what issues you want to highlight and which ones will be a double edged sword. Then you come out confidently during an election campaign, and announce policy as though that is what you would have done all along.
We have seen Abbott backflip. He'd think nothing of hearing Labor's ideas, seeing if the public sentiment is with them, and implement them first to nullify the opposition. The public won't vote out a government for stealing ideas, they will consider them flexible and strong enough to indulge in bi-partisan politics for the good of the country.
Never ever reveal policies until the government has first .... unless there is a very real possibility the government will come up with the idea themselves and beat you to the punch and it is a major plank of your platform.
- Jan 13, 2001
- 15,892
- 6,917
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Man City
Which is not a problem for the ALP with this government.
Releasing policies to early cost Kim Beazley an election.
And Hewson.
It's cynical but Rudd got it exactly right, in political terms, in 2007. The bleating by the government's supporters on this smells of panic on their part.
I was in fact thinking how quiet those supporters have been on many threads.?
True, I was thinking more of the columnists in The Australian.
Malcolm being begged to come back be like
That episode is actually a very good analogy for the Liberal Party.
The guy in charge who was doing a good job (Turnbull/ Patterson) was replaced by a blow hard (Abbott) who made lots of amazing promises but costed none of them. The people believed you could get a lot and not have to pay more for it and voted Abbott/Homer in and eventually Abbott/Homer ruined things and Turnbull/Patterson just sort of laughed at the stupidity of the people when they suddenly wanted him back
They are most likely to go for a nice gst hike as a circuit breaker, much like howard did, then run fear campaigns about terrorism, muslims, refugees (bonus if all three are linked) for all its worth and hope like hell.
Most of abbots stuff has been john howard retreads so far so why not ?
Most of abbots stuff has been john howard retreads so far so why not ?
- Sep 27, 2014
- 34,227
- 28,858
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Malcolm being begged to come back be like
He'll gladly be Prime Minister. He hasn't stuck around the last 5 years to be in the Cabinet outer circle.
Can't wait until the next poll is taken.
Usually the January period is really quiet politically but somehow Abbott has managed to fall into hole after hole and keep himself in the headlines for really bad reasons.
GOAUS!
Norm Smith Medallist
- Apr 20, 2010
- 9,782
- 7,519
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
Can't wait until the next poll is taken.
3 polls have come out now, not pretty (and the Essential numbers were before the knighting controversy, Morgan polling was done between Friday and Tuesday, unsure about ReachTEL)
Essential Media
Primaries
ALP: 41 (+1)
LNP: 39 (-1)
GRN: 9 (-1)
PUP: 2 (0)
TPP:
ALP: 54 (+1)
LNP: 46 (-1)
Morgan
Primaries
ALP: 39.5 (+1)
LNP: 37.5 (-1)
GRN: 12 (+2.5)
IND: 8 (-3.5)
PUP: 3 (+1)
TPP:
ALP: 56.5 (+2)
LNP: 43.5 (-2)
ReachTEL
Primaries (haven't got them yet)
TPP:
ALP: 54 (+1)
LNP: 46 (-1)
I'm reading that there will be an Ipsos poll released in the Fairfax press this weekend. Newspoll can't be far away, expect a lot to be made of that whatever it is.
Was just typing them up . To add:
Essential Research
Approval of the government's action on: Net score, [Swing from Sept '14]
International relations: +5; [-10]
Supporting Australian business: -5, [-]
Treatment of asylum seekers: -6, [-3]
Economic management: -14, [-8]
Industrial relations: -15, [+1]
Environmental protection: -23, [-5]
Supporting Australian jobs: -24, [-3]
Education & schools: -24, [-2]
Climate change: -27, [-]
Social welfare: -28, [-2]
Health services: -31, [-4]
http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_150127.pdf
ReachTel (Obviously taken after Phil's knighthood)
PM's Ratings:
Approve: 22 (-10)
Disapprove: 62 (+10)
Preferred Liberal leader:
Abbott: 18
Turnbull: 45
Bishop: 31
Hockey: 7
Prince Philip Knighthood:
Support: 12
Oppose: 72
A Queensland state poll is reportedly due from ReachTel tonight as well
. To add:Essential Research
Approval of the government's action on: Net score, [Swing from Sept '14]
International relations: +5; [-10]
Supporting Australian business: -5, [-]
Treatment of asylum seekers: -6, [-3]
Economic management: -14, [-8]
Industrial relations: -15, [+1]
Environmental protection: -23, [-5]
Supporting Australian jobs: -24, [-3]
Education & schools: -24, [-2]
Climate change: -27, [-]
Social welfare: -28, [-2]
Health services: -31, [-4]
http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_150127.pdf
ReachTel (Obviously taken after Phil's knighthood)
PM's Ratings:
Approve: 22 (-10)
Disapprove: 62 (+10)
Preferred Liberal leader:
Abbott: 18
Turnbull: 45
Bishop: 31
Hockey: 7
Prince Philip Knighthood:
Support: 12
Oppose: 72
A Queensland state poll is reportedly due from ReachTel tonight as well
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