Polls Thread Mk III

[GOAUS!]

A few polls out now, Essential and Morgan which came out on Tuesday the 7th and Ipsos and Newspoll which have just been released.

Morgan

Primaries:

LN/P: 40.5 (+2.5)
ALP: 36 (-4)
GRN: 12.5 (+1.5)

TPP:

Coalition: 47 (+3)
ALP: 53 (-3)

Essential

Primaries:

LN/P: 40 (0)
ALP: 39 (-1)
GRN: 10 (0)

TPP:

Coalition: 47 (0)
ALP: 53 (0)

Ipsos

Primaries:

LN/P: 39 (-3)
ALP: 38 (+2)
GRN: 13 (+1)

TPP:

Coalition: 46 (-3)
ALP: 54 (+3)

Approve/disapprove:

Abbott: 34 (+2) / 60 (-2)
Shorten: 42 (-1) / 44 (+1)

Preferred PM:

Shorten: 46 (+2)
Abbott: 38 (-1)

Support for increase the GST

Support: 37
Oppose: 59

Newspoll

Primaries:

LN/P: 41 (0)
ALP: 36 (-1)
GRN: 11 (0)

TPP:

Coalition: 49 (0)
ALP: 51 (0)

Approve/disapprove:

Abbott: 33 (+4) / 59 (-2)
Shorten: 33 (-3) / 51 (+4)

Preferred PM:

Shorten: 41 (0)
Abbott: 40 (+4)

 

[Lebbo73]

A few polls out now, Essential and Morgan which came out on Tuesday the 7th and Ipsos and Newspoll which have just been released.

Morgan

Primaries:

LN/P: 40.5 (+2.5)
ALP: 36 (-4)
GRN: 12.5 (+1.5)

TPP:

Coalition: 47 (+3)
ALP: 53 (-3)

Essential

Primaries:

LN/P: 40 (0)
ALP: 39 (-1)
GRN: 10 (0)

TPP:

Coalition: 47 (0)
ALP: 53 (0)

Ipsos

Primaries:

LN/P: 39 (-3)
ALP: 38 (+2)
GRN: 13 (+1)

TPP:

Coalition: 46 (-3)
ALP: 54 (+3)

Approve/disapprove:

Abbott: 34 (+2) / 60 (-2)
Shorten: 42 (-1) / 44 (+1)

Preferred PM:

Shorten: 46 (+2)
Abbott: 38 (-1)

Support for increase the GST

Support: 37
Oppose: 59

Newspoll

Primaries:

LN/P: 41 (0)
ALP: 36 (-1)
GRN: 11 (0)

TPP:

Coalition: 49 (0)
ALP: 51 (0)

Approve/disapprove:

Abbott: 33 (+4) / 59 (-2)
Shorten: 33 (-3) / 51 (+4)

Preferred PM:

Shorten: 41 (0)
Abbott: 40 (+4)

Who can trust polls hey Goaus? The only one I can trust is on Election Day!

 

[Maggie5]

Can't believe that the Newspoll has Abbott +4 in preferred PM.

 

[Maggie5]

Who can trust polls hey Goaus? The only one I can trust is on Election Day!

Unless of course it suits you.

 

[GOAUS!]

Who can trust polls hey Goaus? The only one I can trust is on Election Day!

Well sure that's the one that they're all trying to predict. How successful they are is hard to know.

 

[NTRabbit]

Can't believe that the Newspoll has Abbott +4 in preferred PM.

The only thing he's done all week is go on tv to offer condolences and a state funeral for Richie Benaud, otherwise he's been hiding from the public again. Can't hide for much longer, the budget is due.

 

[Maggie5]

The only thing he's done all week is go on tv to offer condolences and a state funeral for Richie Benaud, otherwise he's been hiding from the public again. Can't hide for much longer, the budget is due.

Maybe that is why he is doing so well, is keeping his mouth relatively shut.

 

[medusala]

Can't believe that the Newspoll has Abbott +4 in preferred PM.

Worst PM ever according to SRP. Cant be true.

 

[Maggie5]

Worst PM ever according to SRP. Cant be true.

Pretty close, I would think. Can't think of another over the past 60 years.

 

[medusala]

Pretty close, I would think. Can't think of another over the past 60 years.

Ha, got a laugh out of me with that one. Three come immediately to mind with Gough the length of the Flemington straight out in front. He made Joan Kirner look as if she had a clue, no mean feat.

 

[Maggie5]

Ha, got a laugh out of me with that one. Three come immediately to mind with Gough the length of the Flemington straight out in front. He made Joan Kirner look as if she had a clue, no mean feat.

Normally even though I may disagree read your posts with interest and occasionally might agree.
But on this sadly your bias means you are way off base.

 

[Slax]

Ha, got a laugh out of me with that one. Three come immediately to mind with Gough the length of the Flemington straight out in front. He made Joan Kirner look as if she had a clue, no mean feat.

Liberal voters always claim that Gough was the worst, but looking back at what was done during his time in office it is very clear that he wasn't. Gough was a very divisive figure, but he did actually do something. Abbott on the other hand has done nothing except whinge since being elected. When we thankfully saw the back of Rudd, I thought thank god, we've got rid of Australia's worst PM ever, only to sit here some 19 months later and say I was wrong we got someone worse. For all her failings, Gillard much better than Rudd or Abbott, she at least had a vision, neither of them did, not even sure if they knew what having vision as PM actually meant, because they never proposed anything that actually represented one.

You judge pathetic PMs not on the here and now, but in at least 2 terms after they finish, even better to wait a decade. 10 years ago people thought Howard was a great PM, with a great Treasurer, now when you look at what they did to the country during their time in office we quickly realise that they were terrible and left a massive scar on this country due to playing popular politics to get re-elected.

 

[Maggie5]

Liberal voters always claim that Gough was the worst, but looking back at what was done during his time in office it is very clear that he wasn't. Gough was a very divisive figure, but he did actually do something. Abbott on the other hand has done nothing except whinge since being elected. When we thankfully saw the back of Rudd, I thought thank god, we've got rid of Australia's worst PM ever, only to sit here some 19 months later and say I was wrong we got someone worse. For all her failings, Gillard much better than Rudd or Abbott, she at least had a vision, neither of them did, not even sure if they knew what having vision as PM actually meant, because they never proposed anything that actually represented one.

You judge pathetic PMs not on the here and now, but in at least 2 terms after they finish, even better to wait a decade. 10 years ago people thought Howard was a great PM, with a great Treasurer, now when you look at what they did to the country during their time in office we quickly realise that they were terrible and left a massive scar on this country due to playing popular politics to get re-elected.

Good points, Rudd is a close second.
Watch Abbott's numbers increase though as he has managed not to say much so that is an improvement.

 

[Slax]

Good points, Rudd is a close second.
Watch Abbott's numbers increase though as he has managed not to say much so that is an improvement.

What will make or break Abbott's leadership isn't actually going to be Abbott himself, it will be Joe Hockey's budget and how well they go about selling it. Given his proven lack of ability to sell a beer on a 40C day, he needs to make sure there any ugly surprises like last year, if there are then nothing will save him.

 

[NTRabbit]

With another idiotic budget still to come




Interesting regarding ALP leadership, Plibersek being from the left faction



Seems like Morgan only did a party leadership and leader approval polls, no general

 

[GOAUS!]

 

[GOAUS!]

 

[Todman]

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-po...or-abbott-approval-soars-20150517-gh3ok8.html

The Abbott government's second budget has strengthened the Prime Minister's grip on the leadership and shored up the position of his embattled Treasurer, Joe Hockey, with support for the Coalition rising dramatically since last month.
In a stunning reversal of fortunes, the government has now pulled even with the Labor opposition, answering internal critics and increasing the prospect of an early election in the second half of 2015, should Tony Abbott decide to capitalise on the electoral recovery.
It is the best result for the Abbott government in more than a year
Mr Abbott has also shot into the lead as the preferred prime minister ahead of Labor's Bill Shorten.
At 44-39, it is the first time Mr Abbott has led on that index since April 2014 and the first time the government has been in a potentially election-winning position since February of that year.
Mr Abbott's approval rating has improved by 8 percentage points since April to be sitting at minus 8 – only slightly lower than Mr Shorten's, which has worsened to be minus 4.
The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll has found support for the two parties is now locked at 50-50 in the immediate aftermath of the government's 2015 budget, which was noticeably softer than its 2014 formula which sent its popular standing sharply southwards.
The poll represents a cumulative 8 point switch from the 46-54 result recorded in the April survey.
It is driven by a strong bounce in the Coalition primary vote, which has jumped 4 percentage points from 39 to 43 per cent

Coalition primary in 2013 election was 45.5% and TPP 53.5%.

Sportsbet current have Lib $1.65 to win next election against $2.20 for the ALP

 

[Pessimistic]

Surely the age isnt trying to hand abbott some free rope ?

'Cumulative swing'. Wed deride the murdoch press if they wrote that ?

 

[NTRabbit]

Ipsos seeme to be off kilter compared to everyone else

 

[Crawb]

Imagine the polls if the ALP actually had an Opposition Leader.

 

[GOAUS!]

Ipsos seeme to be off kilter compared to everyone else

Yeah seems a bit off, 52/53 looks a bit more likely. Newspoll, Essential, Morgan all around that mark.

 

[NTRabbit]

I've read elsewhere that Ipsos was one of the worst offenders when it came to accurate polling in the UK election, might be they have suspect methodology.

 

[medusala]

Liberal voters always claim that Gough was the worst, but looking back at what was done during his time in office it is very clear that he wasn't.

Lol. Increased spending by 40% plus in a year. Nero just fiddled, Gough was running around with a petrol can on the inflation fire.

10 years ago people thought Howard was a great PM, with a great Treasurer, now when you look at what they did to the country during their time in office we quickly realise that they were terrible and left a massive scar on this country

Zero net debt was a massive scar and a string of budget surpluses (and structurally balanced budget with the exception of the last one)?

..

Back on polls, surprised re the Shorten ratings. Surely unusual for an opposition leader to have such high disapproval ratings unless getting belted in the 2pp stakes?

Imagine the polls if the ALP actually had an Opposition Leader.

Who though?

 

[swingdog]

Does anyone know what the effects on moving to robo-polling (as News Corp is doing after dumping Newspoll) are compared to other methods?