Polls Thread Mk III

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smokingjacket said:
Big difference with the preferential system isn't there?
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Surely polling for a first past the post system would have less uncertainty yet there were big surprises in the 2015 general election even with aggregated polling methods like those popularised by nate silver.

The point I'm making is that confidence in political polling took a hit after the 2015 general election which means that Abbott may be on more stable ground than six months ago despite the seemingly entrenched trends against the party.
 
midorigreenwood said:
Surely polling for a first past the post system would have less uncertainty yet there were big surprises in the 2015 general election even with aggregated polling methods like those popularised by nate silver.

The point I'm making is that confidence in political polling took a hit after the 2015 general election which means that Abbott may be on more stable ground than six months ago despite the seemingly entrenched trends against the party.
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The Tories were neck and neck, not behind in the polls, hence talk of a possible Lab/ SNP coalition.

The surprise wasn't that the Tories won the most seats it was the size of the discrepancy.

It's a very different situation and if you look at state level elections results have reflected the swing towards Labor, even the NSW election where Baird was a clear fav and won.
 

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ReachTel:
Primary:
Coalition: 41 (-1)
ALP: 38 (+1)
Greens: 13 (-)

2PP
Coalition: 47 (-1)
ALP: 53 (+1)

First week for some time where all polls have moved in the same direction.

Specifics, including questions about Bronny and a federal ICAC:
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-30july2015


Also found a three-week old ReachTel poll which had previously escaped my gaze, for the electorates of Bass and Lyons (Tasmania):
Bass (4.0%)
Liberal: 46 (-2)
Labor: 36 (+1)
Greens: 12 (+4)

~ Liberal hold by about 1%

Lyons (1.2%)
Liberal: 47 (+3)
Labor: 34 (-3)
Greens: 11 (+3)

~ Liberal hold by about 3%

Tasmania is about as important as Victoria when it comes to seats (for the next election at least). The polls did have small sample sizes, but nevertheless, those aren't inspiring numbers for Labor.
 
Hank Scorpion said:
ReachTel:
Primary:
Coalition: 41 (-1)
ALP: 38 (+1)
Greens: 13 (-)

2PP
Coalition: 47 (-1)
ALP: 53 (+1)

First week for some time where all polls have moved in the same direction.

Specifics, including questions about Bronny and a federal ICAC:
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-30july2015


Also found a three-week old ReachTel poll which had previously escaped my gaze, for the electorates of Bass and Lyons (Tasmania):
Bass (4.0%)
Liberal: 46 (-2)
Labor: 36 (+1)
Greens: 12 (+4)

~ Liberal hold by about 1%

Lyons (1.2%)
Liberal: 47 (+3)
Labor: 34 (-3)
Greens: 11 (+3)

~ Liberal hold by about 3%

Tasmania is about as important as Victoria when it comes to seats (for the next election at least). The polls did have small sample sizes, but nevertheless, those aren't inspiring numbers for Labor.
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Really enjoy reading your thoughts on polls. Thanks
 
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Play by Numbers said:
It's crazy how a position on renewable energy may help kill two govs.

Huge support for Labors renewable plan, and direct action, plus Abbott's coal love will hurt him a great deal in the polls.
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Labor's plan for renewables is a sick joke & only means skyrocketing electricity prices.
 
Maggie5 said:
You mean even more than they have been since this mob got in?:eek:
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Absolutely.

The Libs have only enacted policy which helped reduce overall cost increases(i.e. by removing the Carbon Tax).

Labor is proposing to bring back what is effectively a tax on electricity again, plus force extra subsidisation of inefficient renewable energy.
 

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rodney hoo said:
Mine have sky rocketed since your mans been in power despite the promises of them going down. :rolleyes:
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I know the Left aren't very good with numbers, but do you think your electricity bill would now be higher or the same if the Carbon Tax wasn't removed.

Take as much time as you need to answer, you can even phone a friend.
 
Baldy Head said:
Absolutely.

The Libs have only enacted policy which helped reduce overall cost increases(i.e. by removing the Carbon Tax).

Labor is proposing to bring back what is effectively a tax on electricity again, plus force extra subsidisation of inefficient renewable energy.
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Hahaha please stop with your sense of humour, cracking me up.
 
Baldy Head said:
I know the Left aren't very good with numbers, but do you think your electricity bill would now be higher or the same if the Carbon Tax wasn't removed.

Take as much time as you need to answer, you can even phone a friend.
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Can't afford the phone since Liabbot lied his way into the lodge. Cost of living gone through the roof.:eek:
 
Baldy Head said:
Labor's plan for renewables is a sick joke & only means skyrocketing electricity prices.
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Yawn. The ol' hysteria around electricity bills. It's politics pandering to the lowest common denominator. The difference between the nations electricity bills between lab and lib is really very negligible. And personally I really don't give a s**t.
 
Hank Scorpion said:
Polls thread guys, take it elsewhere.
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It's 6 months since the spill, which is reportedly how long Abbott asked for in order to turn things around.

Given the Expenses scandal, could that be the reason why the Newspoll has gone on break and the Coalition are suddenly announcing ship-building to try and help with polling?

Given Abbott held out so long on Bishop, he's obviously not going to give up the PM'ship willingly. If we have another bout of daily leadership speculation, I am just going to tune out until the election policies start being released.
 
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Nankervis brothers said:
Yawn. The ol' hysteria around electricity bills. It's politics pandering to the lowest common denominator. The difference between the nations electricity bills between lab and lib is really very negligible.
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Under the carbon tax it was 9%.

Under Shorten's proposal, who knows how much higher it would be.

I would use previous Labor "success" stories like Border Protection as a guide.

And personally I really don't give a s**t.
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Bully for you, tough boi.
 
Baldy Head said:
Under the carbon tax it was 9%.

Under Shorten's proposal, who knows how much higher it would be.

I would use previous Labor "success" stories like Border Protection as a guide.


Bully for you, tough boi.
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Hint: Poll talk only, take it to another thread.
 
Baldy Head said:
Under the carbon tax it was 9%.

Under Shorten's proposal, who knows how much higher it would be.

I would use previous Labor "success" stories like Border Protection as a guide.


Bully for you, tough boi.
Click to expand...

You know there is a great deal more to governing than the cost of electricity bills and 'border protection' (once known as simply our refugee intake). Yet you wouldn't know it looking at this failure of a government, which has achieved nothing; giving up even on the economic reforms it deemed essential a mere 12 months ago.
 
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