Polls Thread MkII

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Sep 10, 2004
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You apparently haven't been apprised of this weeks Essential yet? :)

;)

Essential Poll

Coalition 57 (+1)
Labor 43 (-1)

Primary
Coalition 49 (+2)
Labor 31 (-1)
Greens 10 (steady)

Gillard approval 32 (-4), disapproval 61 (+8)
Abbott approval 36 (+1), disapproval 52 (-1)

Preferred PM
Abbott 40 (-1)
Gillard 37 (+3)
 
Sep 3, 2002
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Clearly the coalition are on the nose. abbott, the racist and sexist dinosaur that he is, wiull be humilated in the next election. julia gillard, the smart, honest and wonderful prime minister, will lead this country for many years to come, and we will be better off for that.
Thanks Tim.
 

bombermick

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It's hard to get a read on the polls with each agency at times reporting vastly different numbers. However, if Essential is right it's impossible to see a way back for Labor - I having no confidence in Gillard to maintain enough momentum to rein the coalition in.
 

GuruJane

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Essential now back at the 43/57 low Labor sank to at the height of the carbon tax scare last year. And this after said scare had subsided.

Essential has shown a slow consistent deterioration for Labor right through from when the leadership question started getting traction three-four weeks ago. When the Neilsen, Newspoll, Galaxy polls came out that saturday showing the government's position had improved dramatically and then Essential on the Monday had a 46/56 number, a crapped off Peter Lewis said on Sky "yes, our poll passes the sniff test. Its what you'd expect with a leadership challenge."

He's right. And the telephone polls punters obviously thought Rudd was going to win. How else to explain the dramatic rise in Gillards disapproval and the collapse in primary in Newspoll, now mirrored in Essential?
 
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None of these polls, collectively, deviate from the trend of 54-46.

If the next Newspoll and Nielsen follow the Essential trend then it obviously will change the overall trend, but we're still stuck - easy Coalition win with Abbott and Gillard dreadfully unpopular.
 
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Essential now back at the 43/57 low Labor sank to at the height of the carbon tax scare last year. And this after said scare had subsided.

Essential has shown a slow consistent deterioration for Labor right through from when the leadership question started getting traction three-four weeks ago. When the Neilsen, Newspoll, Galaxy polls came out that saturday showing the government's position had improved dramatically and then Essential on the Monday had a 46/56 number, a crapped off Peter Lewis said on Sky "yes, our poll passes the sniff test. Its what you'd expect with a leadership challenge."

He's right. And the telephone polls punters obviously thought Rudd was going to win. How else to explain the dramatic rise in Gillards disapproval and the collapse in primary in Newspoll, now mirrored in Essential?

Good points.

How do we explain the dip in the Coalition's primary, and Abbott's PPM status, though? You;d think after two weeks of Labor bloodletting, and Gillard's dreadful approval, that Abbott would make up some ground?
 

GuruJane

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Good points.

How do we explain the dip in the Coalition's primary, and Abbott's PPM status, though? You'd think after two weeks of Labor bloodletting, and Gillard's dreadful approval, that Abbott would make up some ground?

Agree. But taking the Essential 49 primary for coalition - 6 pts above last election - about 2% or one third of the 6 pts would be more peed off with Gillard govt than enamoured of a Abbott-led coalition. That's the "only if it were Malcolm" brigade, like you :) You can see that no. reflected in the 30% of coalition voters saying they don't approve of Abbott.

Doesn't affect Abbott's chances though, or not much. His big achievement was to get the coalition base back. As long as they remain solid he has launching pad for any election campaign. His numbers will go up the closer it gets to election, which is when people start taking it seriously.
 
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Agree. But taking the Essential 49 primary for coalition - 6 pts above last election - about 2% or one third of the 6 pts would be more peed off with Gillard govt than enamoured of a Abbott-led coalition. That's the "only if it were Malcolm" brigade, like you :) You can see that no. reflected in the 30% of coalition voters saying they don't approve of Abbott.

Doesn't affect Abbott's chances though, or not much. His big achievement was to get the coalition base back. As long as they remain solid he has launching pad for any election campaign. His numbers will go up the closer it gets to election, which is when people start taking it seriously.

Abbott's current approval and PPM standings are diabolical considering the state of the Government, and I think to simply suggest that Abbott's approval will just "go up closer to the election" is pretty presumptuous.

The Coalition won't be looking for a narrow election win in 2013. They'll want to wipe the floor with Labor with a strong leader that will have them in power for a long time. The Coalition are in a position to win the election, but I don't think Abbott is the man for long-term PM. But we've been over this.
 

poller

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I think people are getting a bit mislead by the coalitions 2pp


as a poller i will try to explain the essentials and news poll 2pp is not correct,
on preferences from the 2010 election the coalition will not get 10-11% in 2pp

if the polls are going on 2pp preference from 2010, where the combined liberal/nationals/others party the liberals received less then 7% of the 2pp

example liberal party primary vote was 43.6%
national party primary was 3.90%

the coalition 2 pp in the 2010 election was 49.9%


the essential poll the coalition in real terms should be 53-54% in 2pp



at the moment the coalition is just in the lead in winning the election with the liberal party primary at 43%


If the liberal party primary goes lower then 42% the coalition will not win the election
 

GuruJane

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Both Newspoll and Essential distribute preferences according to results of last election where they say Labor received 77% of Greens preferences and 43% of Others preferences.

Do the calculation from these latest two polls and it can be seen this how they each arrived at their TPP figure.

btw in the last election the Lib/Nats received a total of 43.6% of primary vote between them.
 

poller

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Both Newspoll and Essential distribute preferences according to results of last election where they say Labor received 77% of Greens preferences and 43% of Others preferences.

Do the calculation from these latest two polls and it can be seen this how they each arrived at their TPP figure.

btw in the last election the Lib/Nats received a total of 43.6% of primary vote between them.

it still doesnt add up with their numbers
in 2010
the lib 43.6 % primary was a combination of the liberal / lnp and country libs

nationals only got 3.90%

the national party primary vote is only counted in the 2pp

the coalition 2pp would be 47.5% + add the others it went up to 49.9%


the coalition 2pp% = 6.2%

so where does essentials and news poll get the 10-11% 2 pp is a mystery


They are claiming the 2 pp preference on 2010
 
Sep 20, 2009
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Agree. But taking the Essential 49 primary for coalition - 6 pts above last election - about 2% or one third of the 6 pts would be more peed off with Gillard govt than enamoured of a Abbott-led coalition. That's the "only if it were Malcolm" brigade, like you :) You can see that no. reflected in the 30% of coalition voters saying they don't approve of Abbott.

Doesn't affect Abbott's chances though, or not much. His big achievement was to get the coalition base back. As long as they remain solid he has launching pad for any election campaign. His numbers will go up the closer it gets to election, which is when people start taking it seriously.

The fact that Labor supporters are now setting the bar so high for Abbott ("if he's not on track to win a landslide he's toast!!") AND the fact that they're desperately trying to talk up Turnbull (who had the Libs at rock bottom) suggests Abbott's doing okay.......
 
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The fact that Labor supporters are now setting the bar so high for Abbott ("if he's not on track to win a landslide he's toast!!") AND the fact that they're desperately trying to talk up Turnbull (who had the Libs at rock bottom) suggests Abbott's doing okay.......

"Setting the bar so high for Abbott"?

This is, by all accounts, the "worst government ever led by the worst Prime Minister ever", am I right?

If by the end of the year Abbott's PPM and approval are lingering at the level they are, and the Coalition are 52-48 or worse, compared with the worst government ever, it will be nearly impossible for him to lead them to the 2013 election.
 

poller

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Depending on which poll, the liberal party is in dangerous territory with their primary votes 43% in the news poll is below the 2010 primary

46% is questionable from the essential poll
 
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2PP's deviate and vary. And after 5 years of Government, the PM is generally lacking in approval and PPM, and are behind by 6+ on 2PP.

The mindblowing figure at the moment is Abbott's approval.
 
Aug 16, 2006
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"Setting the bar so high for Abbott"?

This is, by all accounts, the "worst government ever led by the worst Prime Minister ever", am I right?

If by the end of the year Abbott's PPM and approval are lingering at the level they are, and the Coalition are 52-48 or worse, compared with the worst government ever, it will be nearly impossible for him to lead them to the 2013 election.

If the numbers are as described above by the end of the year, then a leadership spill is likely in the Liberal Party come early next year. A spill will be greeted with great disappointment by the ALP, who must be viewing Abbott as the major thing keeping them in the game ATM.
 

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Essential Poll

Coalition 56 (-1)
Labor 44 (+1)

Interesting how essential's polling has been consistently 3 or so points better for the coalition on 2PP in recent times than the others (Newspoll, Galaxy, Neilsen). Maybe they go about their sampling differently. Not much to read into this change though I wouldn't think.
 
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Interesting how essential's polling has been consistently 3 or so points better for the coalition on 2PP in recent times than the others (Newspoll, Galaxy, Neilsen). Maybe they go about their sampling differently. Not much to read into this change though I wouldn't think.

Essential use a 2-week rolling average, hence why their results appear quite consistent.

The jump out to 57-43 last week means that this week it would have been 55-45 or thereabouts.

Essential use a system where they have a large sample of voters who submit their weekly opinion in an online system. It is the same people every week, from a well-researched and wide variety of places.

The good thing about that is that they have consistency and can produce excellent issue-based polls, but the negative is that people know that they need to submit their preferred party each week so are perhaps more "alert" to political issues than the random voters that a Newspoll, Nielsen get etc. Not sure Essential necessarily reflects the average voter. Essential also generally moves after a Newspoll/Nielsen trend, as opposed to starting a trend.

Like all polling companies, there are positives and negatives with their system.
 

GuruJane

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Essential use a 2-week rolling average, hence why their results appear quite consistent.

The jump out to 57-43 last week means that this week it would have been 55-45 or thereabouts.

Not necessarily. Often their primary numbers add up to 101 not 100. which presumably means they round-up or down the TPP.

The good thing about that is that they have consistency and can produce excellent issue-based polls, but the negative is that people know that they need to submit their preferred party each week so are perhaps more "alert" to political issues than the random voters that a Newspoll, Nielsen get etc.

Very good observation. That's why I think their primary votes are more accurate than the tele polls. Also think that's why they have a slight bias to Labor.

Essential also generally moves after a Newspoll/Nielsen trend, as opposed to starting a trend.

Late last year I compiled a list of comparisons. Think I found it went either way from time to time. I'll try and find it!

Like all polling companies, there are positives and negatives with their system.

Because of their weekly issue polling, I think Essential is the most informative of all the polls. And because of the 2 week rolling average I think they they are more accurate as long a 1% bias to Labor is factored in. Between elections Newspoll bounces up and down and down and up. Have come to conclusion it doesn't deserve the attention it gets.
 

Footy Smarts

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Not necessarily. Often their primary numbers add up to 101 not 100. which presumably means they round-up or down the TPP.

Very good observation. That's why I think their primary votes are more accurate than the tele polls. Also think that's why they have a slight bias to Labor.

Late last year I compiled a list of comparisons. Think I found it went either way from time to time. I'll try and find it!

Because of their weekly issue polling, I think Essential is the most informative of all the polls. And because of the 2 week rolling average I think they they are more accurate as long a 1% bias to Labor is factored in. Between elections Newspoll bounces up and down and down and up. Have come to conclusion it doesn't deserve the attention it gets.

Wait so you're saying essential is biased towards Labor even though compared to other polls its biased towards the coalition? Also that essential is the one we should look at rather than Newspoll, Galaxy or Neilsen?

So the most recent polls have the 2PP at:

56-44 (Essential)
53-47 (Newspoll)
53-47 (Neilsen)
54-46 (Galaxy)

So although all the other polls have had the coalition 2PP sitting at a maximum of 54, you think the real number at the moment is more like 57-43 (taking the Essential poll but factoring a 1% bias towards Labor)?
 

GuruJane

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Wait so you're saying essential is biased towards Labor even though compared to other polls its biased towards the coalition? Also that essential is the one we should look at rather than Newspoll, Galaxy or Neilsen?

I feel there is a slight Labor bias there and always has been because of methodology and more informed voters pool , although Essential would be careful of their ratings.

So the most recent polls have the 2PP at:

56-44 (Essential)
53-47 (Newspoll)
53-47 (Neilsen)
54-46 (Galaxy)

So although all the other polls have had the coalition 2PP sitting at a maximum of 54, you think the real number at the moment is more like 57-43 (taking the Essential poll but factoring a 1% bias towards Labor)?

Oh yes, I think Essential is closer to the mark. Especially their primary nos. Although we will never know because there isn't a Fed election tomorrow.

fwiw I expect Newspoll to head up toward 55/45 and Essential head down to that over the next coupla weeks.
 
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