O
Old Spice
Guest
The govt isnt 6 behind, they are 3 points behind. I'm always alert, but not alarmed, by your failure to comprehend basic maths.
Polls Thread MkII
- Thread starter pjcrows
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
The govt isnt 6 behind, they are 3 points behind. I'm always alert, but not alarmed, by your failure to comprehend basic maths.
O
Old Spice
Guest
It's going to be sweet to see the closing of poll numbers here over the next 17 months as the mining tax begins to bite and people are reminded of Workchoices, ohhh yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
- Thread starter
- #78
I said that generally, after 5 years of Government, the PM is usually lacking in approval and PPM, and the Government are behind 6+ on 2PP.
Hence, why the current Government is in a reasonable position, and the figures that should be focussed on as it stands are Abbott's approvals.
What do you disagree with?
- Thread starter
- #79
Essential Poll
Coalition 54 (-2)
Labor 46 (+2)
Party to best handle economy
Coalition 49 (-2)
Labor 26 (+3)
No difference 20 (-3)
Don't know 10 (+2)
Voter prediction of Australia's economic conditions over next 12 months
Get better 25 (+9)
Get worse 46 (-8)
Stay the same 21 (-1)
Don't know 7 (+3)
Coalition 54 (-2)
Labor 46 (+2)
Party to best handle economy
Coalition 49 (-2)
Labor 26 (+3)
No difference 20 (-3)
Don't know 10 (+2)
Voter prediction of Australia's economic conditions over next 12 months
Get better 25 (+9)
Get worse 46 (-8)
Stay the same 21 (-1)
Don't know 7 (+3)
Well I think it's safe to say that 57-43 Essential that came out of nowhere was a rogue. 54-46 is in keeping with Essential for the past 12 months, and Newspoll and Galaxy.
I said that generally, after 5 years of Government, the PM is usually lacking in approval and PPM, and the Government are behind 6+ on 2PP.
Hence, why the current Government is in a reasonable position, and the figures that should be focussed on as it stands are Abbott's approvals.
What do you disagree with?
It's rare indeed that Opposition Leaders get good approval ratings and certainly not Preferred PM/Premier. There are exceptions like Rudd's extremely presidential campaign, or where the government is utterly terminal (NSW, Qld), but not often.
Abbott being competitive on PPM, bobbing around parity with Gillard, is very good in the scheme of things.
- Aug 16, 2006
- 5,094
- 6,695
- AFL Club
- Geelong
It wasn't much good for Latham, who was actually in a better position prior to the 2004 election than Abbott currently is.
In the fortnight before the 2004 election campaign began, Latham's Labor held a lead identical to the one Abbott's opposition currently holds - it held a lead of 53-47 on 2PP. PPM was close, with Latham on 43 to Howard's 48. That said, I am pretty sure the two sat on parity on PPM for some time during 2004, and I think Latham very briefly was preferred PM. Two weeks out from that election 'approval' numbers were at parity, with both Latham and Howard at 54% approval on performance.
FWIW, around the time of Howard's back flip on the GST (early-mid 98) his approval rating fell to 32% (worse than Gillard's lowest), and Beazley was the preferred PM. Howard won the election later that year.
PJ Crow's point is solid. The current governments polling numbers are not flash, but they are not inconsistent with past incumbents either, and not as dire as the media make out.
But in terms of politicians and the ability to come back, Gillard is not fit to tie the bootlaces of Keating or Howard.
She is toxic. And useless.
Gillard's lowest was 26 in Newspoll. Only beaten by Keating with 23 IIRC.
tazzietiger
Premiership Player
- Sep 10, 2010
- 4,808
- 508
- AFL Club
- Richmond
More bad news for federal labor after the Qld election disaster.
No, no, no. Its not that bad, you just ask the lefties in this thread, once they apply their statistical maniupulation the ALP will be in front!
They know better than professional pollsters.
I do think there may be a question mark over the Newspoll due to the bad-news run of the Queensland election. Let's wait til the next one to see if the trend is sustained.
Problem for Gillard is, the next Newspoll is due on Easter Monday so will be held over. She'll have to live with these numbers for 3 weeks or maybe a month. That gives plenty of time for the "narrative" to build.
Problem for Gillard is, the next Newspoll is due on Easter Monday so will be held over. She'll have to live with these numbers for 3 weeks or maybe a month. That gives plenty of time for the "narrative" to build.
The Latham-Howard dynamic was a bit different. Long-standing incumbent temporarily wrong footed by the brash new upstart, before gradually re-asserting himself when it really mattered. IIRC the polls were pretty volatile then, people were giving Latham a look and making up their minds about what they saw.
Gillard OTOH has has been consistently trailing in the polls around 54/55 pretty much since the beginning of 2011. And she has never had the same authority or popularity that enabled Howard to bounce back.
- Jun 19, 2006
- 10,036
- 18,416
- AFL Club
- Geelong
This does seem a bit out of the blue. I mean every other poll had improvements for Labor recently and this just reversed all of that. Maybe it is just because of the QLD election, maybe it's an outlier or maybe Abbott's move to call the QLD election a "referendum on the Carbon tax" hit home.
It's strange since Gillard was building up some momentum and has probably had her best month since she saw off Rudd. Is there anything else on the horizon that could destroy her momentum because it looks like this election has made her hit a brick wall.
- Jun 19, 2006
- 10,036
- 18,416
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Fair call but that has been and will be simmering for a while yet. From what I've read that's unlikely to be sorted until after the next election. No doubt it'll be an issue but she was clawing back ground with him somewhat in the spotlight anyway.
tazzietiger
Premiership Player
- Sep 10, 2010
- 4,808
- 508
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Gillard supporters are always claiming that shes building momentum. I think Labor need to have a good hard look at what is holding her back from doing this and I truly think she has a question mark over her on trust. The Rudd leadership challenge instead of becoming a circuit breaker only turned into an ugly mud slinging campaign by Gillard supporters which I think was mistake. She was always going to win I don't know why they did it.
Wait till he gets charged....
- Thread starter
- #94
Labor certainly isn't building any momentum. It's stagnant. Gillard can take some positives, but every time she improves, the party drops, and vice versa.
Agree that 57-43 looks like a bit of rogue, with a bit of noise from Queensland, but we'll see.
Labor certainly aren't at the 53-47 territory that they were perhaps hoping to threaten a little while back. The 55-45 overall trend we've had for a year once again continues. Coalition would win in a landslide and remain hot favourites.
Agree that 57-43 looks like a bit of rogue, with a bit of noise from Queensland, but we'll see.
Labor certainly aren't at the 53-47 territory that they were perhaps hoping to threaten a little while back. The 55-45 overall trend we've had for a year once again continues. Coalition would win in a landslide and remain hot favourites.
- Jun 19, 2006
- 10,036
- 18,416
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Oh no doubt if that happens, the proverbial will hit the fan. My impression from what I've read was that it's unlikely to happen for some time yet and probably after the next election. I'm not that knowledgeable about the whole situation though and I'm going off the scraps I've seen.
- Jun 19, 2006
- 10,036
- 18,416
- AFL Club
- Geelong
I'm not saying she was on a roll but she'd certainly built a little momentum. Rudd gone, private health rebate and mining tax through. Add in Abbott making a couple of silly comments (whitlam death, turning boats around, etc) and getting some long overdue policy criticism on his PPL scheme.
It wasn't much but she'd also got back to 45-47 of the 2PP going by various polls. Then whack this happens.
As for the Rudd tustle I agree it was overly nasty. They needed to explain why he couldn't stay as PM and they did but the personal attacks were too much and probably overshadowed the explanation of why Rudd was knifed which should've been a positive.
I agree though that unless she can build some trust which will be exceedingly difficult she's not going anywhere fast.
- Jan 13, 2001
- 15,892
- 6,917
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- Man City
I found the current poll very confusing in some ways. A big drop in both primary vote and 2PP for Labor, but Gillard performance rankings go up now clear preferred PM.
Next poll will give a better indication as also of the opinion this poll is a bit of a rogue.
Next poll will give a better indication as also of the opinion this poll is a bit of a rogue.
bombermick
Norm Smith Medallist
Amazing to think we've got a government that only 28% of the populace wants to govern. The baseball bats are ready.
Even Abbott's foot-in-mouth disease (Whitlam comments) isn't enough to get Labor back in the game. The Labor brand is toxic, and the sooner they get into opposition, the sooner they can sort themselves out and provide a decent opposition.
Even Abbott's foot-in-mouth disease (Whitlam comments) isn't enough to get Labor back in the game. The Labor brand is toxic, and the sooner they get into opposition, the sooner they can sort themselves out and provide a decent opposition.
Essential has been very consistent in 54/55 TPP to Coalition for a long time now.
Newspoll has been a bit more volatile, but still generally bobbing around the 54/55 mark.
Morgan is regarded as being more friendly to Labor, and has been very consistently bobbing around 51/52 TPP.
Nielsen and Galaxy OTOH had a couple of polls that were way out of whack with this (59-41, 58-42). The "momentum for Gillard" was actually nothing more than these two polls coming back into line with the rest in the last month.
This Newspoll may be a rogue as Essential has come back in to 54-46, but from the other polls it's clear Gillard is treading water at best.
- Status
