Queensland State Election (31/1/2015) - Labor form govt (Thread pg 54)

[swingdog]

Looks like Newman might be rattled by recent polls - Queenslanders could be heading to the polls as early as 31 January.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/06/queensland-early-poll-campbell-newman

I'd expect the LNP to hold on, albeit with a reduced margin, and Newman to lose his seat. Any other predictions? Main issues?

 

[Slax]

Looks like Newman might be rattled by recent polls - Queenslanders could be heading to the polls as early as 31 January.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/06/queensland-early-poll-campbell-newman

I'd expect the LNP to hold on, albeit with a reduced margin, and Newman to lose his seat. Any other predictions? Main issues?

If he chooses 31 January it will be a mistake, people don't like elections just on holiday time. I'll enjoy watching Newman lose his seat, will serve the LNP right for the way they appointed him in the first place.

Election is going to be very tight, will come down to two factors, who runs the better campaign and where the PUP preference go. Trying to work out the plans for PUP are almost as difficult as picking the right numbers in the lottery. If he lets Abbott or Hockey into the state it will also hurt the LNP chances. Can see a lot of questions being asked about succession planning, the concept of electing the LNP when they have no leader could cost them the election.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Panic stations up in Brisbane. Newman would need a miracle to keep his seat.

 

[Norwegian Blue]

If he chooses 31 January it will be a mistake, people don't like elections just on holiday time. I'll enjoy watching Newman lose his seat, will serve the LNP right for the way they appointed him in the first place.

What's your beef with the way he was appointed?Essentially they said to the electorate "if you vote us in next time Campbell Newman will be premier if he wins a seat". He also showed some balls by taking on a seat he could have easily not won.

 

[Maggie5]

Will the Palmer Party be a factor or has the electorate gone cold on him?

 

[pjcrows]

QLD LNP will be hoping Abbott stays the * away.

To go this early, during holidays, indicates internal LNP polling in key demographics is slipsliding away.

They'll retain government but Newman is done regardless.

 

[LennyStarkiller]

Has there been a Premier thats party has won an election but have lost their seat?

 

[swingdog]

Will the Palmer Party be a factor or has the electorate gone cold on him?

Has dropped - this is from Poll Bludger on the December Newspoll breakdown.

On the primary vote – particularly important given Queensland’s optional preferential system and high exhaustion rate – Labor has gained four points to reach 36%, the LNP is off two to 37% and the Greens are steady on 10%. The 17% support for other parties threatens to make life unpredictable, despite the fact that it has reflected the decline of Palmer United by dropping nine points since April-June, and two since July-September.

 

[sherb]

Pretty fair effort to turn the majority they won into basically dead heat polling in just one term.

Must have been some government Campbell ran up there.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Confirmed. Happy to see the back of Newman but polling indicates though the vote is 50/50 2PP, that Labor will only pick up 30 seats from LNP and LNP will be returned. I am concerned about Newman's right hand men getting his job. Please no to Seeney, Bleijie, Nicholls.

I'm not a fan but from a political stability point of view, they could do worse than appealing to their National Party roots and installing Springborg.

For Labor, more seats equals more talent and Palaszczuk who got the top job by default will move aside.

 

[swingdog]

Confirmed. Happy to see the back of Newman but polling indicates though the vote is 50/50 2PP, that Labor will only pick up 30 seats from LNP and LNP will be returned. I am concerned about Newman's right hand men getting his job. Please no to Seeney, Bleijie, Nicholls.

I'm not a fan but from a political stability point of view, they could do worse than appealing to their National Party roots and installing Springborg.

For Labor, more seats equals more talent and Palaszczuk who got the top job by default will move aside.

I see Nicholls talked about as a favourite - what don't you like about him and his cohorts?

BTW - long time avatar admirer.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

I see Nicholls talked about as a favourite - what don't you like about him and his cohorts?

Just the tough talking, dismissive stuff coming from him, Seeney and Newman when they first got in and attacked the public service cuts. Very callous, head kicking stuff. They were the 3 headed serpent when people realised 'oh s**t, what have we done.'

BTW - long time avatar admirer.

It's become an extension of me on here I guess. Kind of committed to it now.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

After the last election it was LNP 77 seats, Labor 7 seats, Katter Party 3 seats and 2 independents.

We have since had 2 by-elections with Labor taking both seats from the LNP. We also had 2 LNP defections with both becoming independents, then aligning with PUP, and then becoming independent again.

If the predictions of a further 30 seats from Labor to LNP eventuate, we are looking at LNP 43, Labor 39, and minor party/independents to sort out. Katter will support LNP (after securing something for himself), the two defectors will still preference LNP although I do think of Windsor and Oakeshott here, one independent is genuinely independent but I feel could back Labor, the other brought down the Goss Labor government after a by-election once before.

Might be interesting working with a hung parliament in Queensland.

 

[Maggie5]

I met a couple of people that voted for Katter on Christmas day and asked they why? They said no real reason apart from the fact that they couldn't stand either major parties.

 

[little graham]

They've realized that the Tony Abbott factor will only get worse. In damage limitation mode.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

They've realized that the Tony Abbott factor will only get worse. In damage limitation mode.

They don't need the Abbott factor to damage them. They had done the damage before Abbott was elected. Newman is every bit as arrogant and out of touch, with a born to rule mentality as Abbott is.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

They don't need the Abbott factor to damage them. They had done the damage before Abbott was elected. Newman is every bit as arrogant and out of touch, with a born to rule mentality as Abbott is.

I think they were planning on being arseholes the first couple of years and then being nice the final year to get re-elected whilst banking on their ridiculous majority, however Abbott doing the same thing has just reminded everyone of what they had been doing so their strategy of banking on the short memory of the voter is down the toilet.

 

[clogged]

Pretty fair effort to turn the majority they won into basically dead heat polling in just one term.

Must have been some government Campbell ran up there.

Yeah, what's the deal? He's gone from the most popular premier in the country (I remember polls being ridiculously favourable to him only a few years ago) to hated. I don't pay much attention to Queensland politics to know why this turnaround has happened. Mostly federal politics influence or something else?

 

[illavitar]

Queensland is the Texas of Australia, and given this demographic the labour party doesn't have a hope in hell. Even after one of the most dysfunctional liberal offices in our history.

 

[illavitar]

Yeah, what's the deal? He's gone from the most popular premier in the country (I remember polls being ridiculously favourable to him only a few years ago) to hated. I don't pay much attention to Queensland politics to know why this turnaround has happened. Mostly federal politics influence or something else?

Military Meathead. Blindly hates and doesn't understand the purpose of the public sector like every other person out there who lacks basic cognition. He's responsible for the losses of tens of thousands of jobs and destroying families after being trusted and promising to not do exactly that. Another liberal worm just like our PM.

 

[clogged]

IIRC, the last two snap state elections have tended to backfire on the incumbents. Victoria in 1999 and WA in 2008. The 2010 Federal election also almost backfired on Gillard.

 

[Zealbee]

I have bet $728 on Newman to lose his seat @ 1.55 this morning just before the election was called. No idea why such good odds were on offer and would have bet more if they had a higher limit. He has been well behind in the polls in Ashgrove for 2 years now, he is a goner.

 

[pjcrows]

Good odds. Newman is done.

 

[Belnakor]

I have bet $728 on Newman to lose his seat @ 1.55 this morning just before the election was called. No idea why such good odds were on offer and would have bet more if they had a higher limit. He has been well behind in the polls in Ashgrove for 2 years now, he is a goner.

the only thing I would be wary of, is that people like having their seat with the premier and this will show a decent swing to Newman at the end of the campaign.

Howard for example lost 48/52 however prior to the election he was travelling at 45/55.

Campbell is at similiar numbers but he is in a state seat - which is far easier to do a "personality blitz" than a federal seat.

1.55 is good odds but i wouldn't be putting my house on Campbell losing.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Newman's decision to stay and fight is a peculiar one. Of what I've heard, the other senior ministers of the LNP are even more dodgy than Newman. Not sure that it's wise to leave that doubt in voters' minds. People might be turned off by the idea of someone like Jeff Seeney as Premier and vote ALP.

Alternatively they could be hoping that that uncertainty is enough for voters in Ashgrove to stick with Newman (unlikely imo).

At this stage I'd predict something in the range of; LNP: 54, ALP: 37, IND: 1 (with LNP 52% TPP). That works with the assumption that KAP lose all their seats and the ex-PUP seats fall. (not at all confident with this call, but there are too many variables for me to work through at this stage to make something close to a valid prediction.)

Based off of Antony Green's pendulum (and assuming the KAP and ex-PUP members are defeated), the LNP can afford an 11.2% uniform swing (around 51% of TPP) to hold onto its majority: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/05/post-election-pendulum-for-2012-queensland-election.html

There will be a LOT of complications to uniform swings. Whom PUP directs preferences to, sophomore surges, Brisbane/SEQ/Regional variance, presence of KAP... etc.

As for the timing, it seems unusual to call an election in January. Newman must be fearing the federal factor if he's willing to interrupt the holiday period for many people, to call an election. Another obvious case of the government calling an election to their benefit (i.e. should have been fixed 3-year terms).

Should Annastacia Palaszczuk win, she would be an odd case. First woman elected to Premier from opposition, probably not Premier material (wasn't she just chosen as LOTO in the absence of.... everyone?), and that name (surely the most difficult to pronounce of a state leader in Australian history?)

Will the Palmer Party be a factor or has the electorate gone cold on him?

At this stage no, but people are fickle and if Clive wants to make Can Do sweat, he can throw as much money at it as he pleases.