R17: North Melbourne v St Kilda @ Bellerive Oval

[Kangaroos4eva]

Important game in the context of where NM currently sit on the ladder. NM need a massive percentage boosting win to get the media off their backs about inconsistency and secondly to boost their percentage to have at least a remote chance of top 4 or a home final at 5 or 6.

Key Players:
NM

Scott Thompson:
Most likely matchup for Nick Riedwoldt and it is important to nullify the in-form key forward. Thompson hasn't had the best of years, but this can be rectified as he is proven performer and has nullified some of the AFL's best.

Lachie 'Loogie' Hansen:
Dominated last week as that third/intercept defender and helping in tearing apart the Hawks with marking, run and good foot skills. He will be critical today and he needs to make his presence known against the young Saints forwards, needs to keep up his consistent form as he is critical to NM counterattacking structure's.

Aaron Black:
Had an excellent game last week and will be looking to improve his inconsistent season thus far. He is an exciting prospect that has played less than 50 games, but is critical to our forward structure, conditions should suit his ground level game and hopefully exploit the largely outstretched saints defence.

Ben Brown:
The cult hero of Tasmania, had a fantastic game last week and his support in the ruck and up forward will be influential in deciding the result and final margin in the event of a NM victory. Appears to be a better forward than ruck man ATM, but we'll have to wait and see.


Saints:
Montagna:
Proven performer and excellent player for his proud club. Has had a few inconsistent weeks, but is a proven performer, shutting his inside class will be critical to a NM victory.

Hayes:
What can l say, a very good performer and a known champion of the St Kilda football club. His inside work and spread will be dangerous and he needs to nullified for North Melbourne to win and win well.

Riedwoldt:
Champion player that is an absolute workhorse. Leads up to the footy, kicks goals and is critical to any Saint's chances today. Expect him to be double teamed by Hansen, Firrito and Thompson throughout the day, but the champ will get on his bike to aid his defence, so NM need to cut that avenue off and keep the ball pinned inside fifty and spread it out to their classier mids in Cunners, Harvey and Dal.

NORTH MELBOURNE
B

• Luke McDonald,
• Scott D. Thompson,
• Scott McMahon

HB

• Shaun Atley,
• Lachlan Hansen,
• Michael Ferrite

C

• Sam Gibson,
• Andrew Swallow,
• Sam Wright

HF

• Brent Harvey,
• Aaron Black,
• Nick Dal Santo

F

• Ben Brown,
• Drew Petrie,
• Lindsay Thomas

FOL

• Todd Goldstein,
• Ben Cunnington,
• Levi Greenwood

I/C

• Ryan Bastinac,
• Ben Jacobs,
• Leigh Adams,
• Aaron Mullett

EMG

• Brad McKenzie,
• Trent Dumont,
• Majak Daw

NO CHANGE
IN

• Aaron Mullett

OUT

• Liam Anthony (Omitted)

ST KILDA
B

• Sam Fisher,
• Luke Delaney,
• Sean Dempster

HB

• Shane Savage,
• James Gwilt,
• Dylan Roberton

C

• Jack Newnes,
• Lenny Hayes,
• Leigh Montagna

HF

• Luke Dunstan,
• Nick Riewoldt,
• David Armitage

F

• Adam Schneider,
• Rhys Stanley,
• Jack Billings

FOL

• Tom Hickey,
• Sebastian Ross,
• Maverick Weller

I/C

• Farren Ray,
• Tom Curren,
• Sam Dunell,
• Cameron Shenton

EMG

• Clinton Jones,
• Josh Saunders,
• Darren Minchington

NO CHANGE

IN

• Sam Fisher,
• Lenny Hayes,
• Tom Hickey,
• Tom Curren

OUT

• Darren Minchington (Omitted),
• Trent Dennis-Lane (Omitted),
• Jack Steven (Thigh),
• Billy Longer (Omitted)

North by 62 points.

 

[wolfpup]

if we get within 62 points i will be pleased.

north by 80+ easily

 

[Smoocher]

Perfect scenario for us to lose this.
Having said that let me say this. North by 10 goals.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

if we get within 62 points i will be pleased.

north by 80+ easily

You have good ins and the weather isn't ideal for thrashings.

 

[Ahern2Boof]

North Melbourne (7th - 9/6)
FB: Luke McDonald, Scott Thompson, Scott McMahon
HB: Shaun Atley, Lachie Hansen, Michael Firrito
C: Sam Gibson, Andrew Swallow, Sam Wright
HF: Brent Harvey, Aaron Black, Nick Dal Santo
FF: Ben Brown, Drew Petrie, Lindsay Thomas
R: Todd Goldstein, Ben Cunnington, Levi Greenwood
I/C: Ryan Bastinac, Ben Jacobs, Leigh Adams, Aaron Mullett
EMG: Brad McKenzie, Trent Dumont, Majak Daw

IN: Aaron Mullett
OUT: Liam Anthony

St Kilda (18th - 3/12)
FB: Sam Fisher, Luke Delaney, Sean Dempster
HB: Shane Savage, James Gwilt, Dylan Roberton
C: Jack Newnes, Lenny Hayes, Leigh Montagna
HF: Luke Dunstan, Nick Riewoldt, David Armitage
FF: Adam Schneider, Rhys Stanley, Jack Billings
R: Tom Hickey, Seb Ross, Maverick Weller
I/C: Farren Ray, Tom Curren, Sam Dunell, Cameron Shenton
EMG: Clint Jones, Josh Saunders, Darren Minchington

IN: Sam Fisher, Lenny Hayes, Tom Hickey, Tom Curren
OUT: Darren Minchington, Trent Dennis-Lane, Billy Longer, Jack Steven (Thigh)

Sportsbet: North Melbourne $1.03, St Kilda $14
TAB: North Melbourne $1.03, St Kilda $14

Overview

North Melbourne's inconsistent season continued last week, managing to knock off Hawthorn by 20 points despite losing to Brisbane in disappointing circumstances a week earlier. The Roos solidified their position in the top eight with the upset win, and has a real chance at getting a percentage boost against the lowly St Kilda. The Saints, who haven't won since Round 5, have lost their past five games by margins of 85, 44, 33, 96 and 70 points. The Roos showed last week how dangerous they can be when they start the game all guns blazing and continue with the right balance of offence and defence, while St Kilda continually burned targets by foot against Carlton in what was arguably their most disappointing performance of the year. The Saints have unfortunately lost Jack Steven to a thigh injury, but regain experienced pair Lenny Hayes and Sam Fisher, the latter playing his first game for the year. Tagger Tom Curren also returns, while Tom Hickey replaces Billy Longer in the ruck. At North, Liam Anthony has been omitted after a poor display against the Hawks, with Aaron Mullett earning a reprieve.

Tale of two backlines

Both sides this year have had vastly different performance levels in defence, with St Kilda conceded the most points in the league at an average of 112 points per game, while the Roos are particularly stingy, letting through 78.6 points. The Saints conceded above 100 points a game just once in the first six rounds, but since then have not been able to hold their opponent to double figures. The backline has struggled to settle, with injuries to the likes of Sam Gilbert, Sam Fisher, Jarryn Geary, Nathan Wright and Jimmy Webster as well as inconsistency for players such as Josh Bruce, Dylan Roberton and James Gwilt. Former North Melbourne defender Luke Delaney has played well in his first year at the Saints, and has proved to be arguably their best pick-up from the off-season last year.

2013 saw North Melbourne concede a number of high scores to opposition teams, but this year has brought a sharper focus on defence, which has improved the team's ability to play against the top sides. In 2014, North have so far conceded low numbers such as 54, 48, 61, 38, 44 and 66, while they have let through 100 points or more three times. This has been a result of improved fitness and a new gameplan that doesn't allow the opposition to get on a fast break heading inside 50. If North can shut the game down on Saturday, they should be able to cut off St Kilda's score supply enough to get the win.

Key match-ups

Despite St Kilda's poor year, Nick Riewoldt has had another consistent year, kicking 37 goals, ranked eighth in the league, and demands the full attention of the North Melbourne defence. Scott Thompson will get the first crack at him, who's form, despite being shaky at times, has again been strong, and not only will he be looking to shut down the St Kilda captain, he will also be out to provide plenty of rebound.

For anyone that has seen the AFL documentary around Luke McDonald, Jack Billings and Ben Lennon's draft experience, you would know that McDonald and Billings are best mates, and both will line-up against each other for the first time on Saturday. Billings has been a shining light for the Saints, and has kicked the second most goals for the club behind Riewoldt, while McDonald has impressed with his consistency and level-headedness in just his first year, playing every game and locking down a spot in the back half. Expect these two to give each other a bit of stick, and hopefully play on each other throughout the game.

With the season-ending injury to Gary Ablett, the market for the Brownlow Medal has been thrown wide open. Among those now in contention is Brent Harvey, who is having arguably his best season at the age of 36. Averaging 26.5 disposals, 4.8 marks, 3.3 marks and with 19.17 to his name from 15 games, Boomer will need to be shut down if the Saints are to have a chance of pulling off an upset victory. That job could be given to youngster Tom Curren or Maverick Weller.

All eyes will be on Nick Dal Santo, who will play his first game against his old side St Kilda. Dal Santo is another player being thrown around in discussions for the Brownlow Medal, averaging 27.3 possessions for the year. Dal Santo has spent a lot of the year playing deep in the back half, using his precise disposal skills to hit targets to break opposition zones. We could see him go head to head with good mate Leigh Montagna, or even youngster Jack Newnes.

He was being targeted for a poor start to the season, but Drew Petrie has started to hit some form. After booting four goals against Richmond in Round 12, Petrie has kicked nine goals in total from the past two weeks against Brisbane and Hawthorn, and was the centre of the controversial incident with Brian Lake last Friday night. Petrie has a poor record in Hobart, with five goals to his name from four games, and will most likely cop former teammate Delaney, who has been good in the one-on-one contests this year, an area that Petrie excels at. Sam Fisher may also spend some time on Petrie.

History

Since 2000, North Melbourne and St Kilda have played a total of 21 times. From left to right, this is the result of each game from the start of the millennium.

NM - NM - NM - NM - NM - STK - STK - STK - NM - STK - STK - NM - STK - STK - NM - STK - STK - STK - STK - NM - NM

Overall
North Melbourne: 10
St Kilda: 11

Prediction

You'd expect this game to be a one-sided affair, but you just never know with North Melbourne. Surely in front of a home crowd, and with wet weather to suit them, they can get the job done. Saints just need to aim to be competitive.

Margin: 56 points
First goalkicker: Drew Petrie
Uniform:

 

[Ahern2Boof]

Mods can you merge with other gameday thread, ta.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Mods can you merge with other gameday thread, ta.

Sorry mate, thought l would hit two birds with one stone ha ha, fantastic write up as always.

 

[ScoobySnacks]

Jekyll and Hyde North could serve up anything today

 

[Crawb]

North Melbourne will find a way to cost everyone a whopper burger somehow.

 

[JeffDunne]

Hopefully the conditions will have the Roos wishing they were somewhere else.

I suspect though we'll suffer more from that and one good qtr from North should be enough to bury us.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Hopefully the conditions will have the Roos wishing they were somewhere else.

I suspect though we'll suffer more from that and one good qtr from North should be enough to bury us.

I thought it will inhibit you guy's more so as we've played well in several wet games this year. Beat Sydney and Freo in dewy/wet conditions.

 

[ep2018]

North will cement their finals position today.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

North will cement their finals position today.

I wish l shared your confidence, but yes a big win today is important.

 

[Kram]

North by 100.

 

[Eatosk]

North by 71.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Lmac out for Bmac in a late change

 

[Rod Stroker]

This won't be the spanking that many expect. Weather and our form won't allow it. Plus they have some good ins.

 

[Radius]

Pretty sure we've only won one first quarter for the year, against GWS.

If it gets ugly, it'll probably happen quickly. I have a good feeling about this one though, reckon we can keep the margin to two digits

Edit: two first quarters for the year. WC the other one

 

[joop]

This is going to be uuuuuuuggggggglllllyyyyy

 

[Iron]

This is going to be uuuuuuuggggggglllllyyyyy

You're right, but not in the way I think you meant it.

 

[Scotland]

Umpires conspiring against St Kilda yet or what?

 

[The Prosecutor]

Tony Shaw's a ******* idiot.

 

[Donakebab]

Thomas ducking? Unbelievable.

 

[Bennett.]

Lindsay.....

 

[BornPort]

Shut up Dermie.