Holy trending sqiggles Batman
Dogs, Pies, Giants and dees are coming and Tiges, bombres, cats and crows are going.
What a week
Dogs, Pies, Giants and dees are coming and Tiges, bombres, cats and crows are going.
What a week
Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
- Tagged users None
The Falcon Strike
Hall of Famer
I like the squiggle...
But I struggle to comprehend how it has my side so high
As a middle of the road team with a fair few injuries - I would have thought we'd be in the bottom third
But I struggle to comprehend how it has my side so high
As a middle of the road team with a fair few injuries - I would have thought we'd be in the bottom third
KissKiss
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 26, 2012
- 7,725
- 8,722
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
I wondered that you moved too much after beating us. We are really bad.
At this stage, I will take the four wins for the suns by year end...Round 4, 2015
Animated!
A couple of epic encounters by the top four teams taught us... not very much, delivering scorelines close to squiggle expectations. Home state advantage is a big deal, so it's no knock on either the Hawks or the Swans to lose those games... and, by the same token, not very surprising that Port and Fremantle won them.
The Dockers' ongoing drift upwards and rightwards shouldn't be ignored, though. It's also notable that Port Adelaide have performed very much like a top-4 team in three games out of four, their rout by Sydney the only exception.
Adelaide, West Coast, and North Melbourne share the same territory this week, which is a fairly high-attack area. Last year, the second-tier teams were quite a lot more defensively-oriented.
Good week for: the Bulldogs! All the surprising performances came from lower-ranked teams, with Melbourne, Collingwood, and the Giants moving a lot. But the Bulldogs are now a realistic finals contender, with three wins in the bank and probably the second-softest fixture in the league. That's a huge jump from where they were a month ago.
GWS is also a finals contender, with a pretty solid month now.
Bad week for: Richmond. Bleh. After trending well in every year from 2010 to 2013, the Tigers went nowhere in 2014, charting around the same area, and they're stuck there again in 2015.
Not so great for Carlton, either, despite a pretty good 40-pt win over the Saints. With the Bulldogs, Giants, Demons, and Magpies evacuating the lower-left quadrant like it's a fire drill, the Blues are left in the bottom four.
Squiggle predictor says:
Interactive squiggle!
- Aug 20, 2010
- 14,368
- 19,101
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
Agreed. Not bagging your team just because I'm a Freo supporter, but there's no way you'll finish 6th overall.
Final Siren is there an error in the predictor with Geelong "home" games that aren't actually in Geelong? The predictor has Collingwood beating Geelong 82-72 in round 6, but Geelong winning 84-70 in round 22, despite both games being at the MCG. Plus Geelong is also only predicted to lose to Hawthorn by 4 goals in round 20 although they appear to be significantly behind the Hawks on the chart.
Geez 4 wins predicted for the Suns, that's bad.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,509
What the squiggle likes about West Coast is they really kick the snot out of bad teams. They're not so great against good teams. But they're not terrible, either. So on balance they're pretty good.
Eagles margins, last 10 games: +53, -30, +69, -10, +52, +66, -3, +60, +31, -17. That's a 6-4 record with an average winning margin of 55 points and an average losing margin of 15 points.
The Falcon Strike
Hall of Famer
Agreed
If you asked me at the start if the year where we'd finish - I think I had 6th to 14th
6th if everything went right and 14th if it went pear shaped
Right now 12th or 13th look about right for us
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,511
The squiggle believes in home game advantage regardless of where the match is actually being played. So Geelong get the HGA for any home game, whether at Kardinia or the 'G. This happens purely because that's the way the results have fallen over the last decade or two. It's counter-intuitive, though, I agree. I posted about it earlier in this thread somewhere.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,512
And yet every team today is a lot better than Melbourne or GWS from 2013. On squiggle numbers, Gold Coast 2015 would beat 2013 Melbourne at a neutral venue by over six goals.
In 2013, bad was really bad.
Do you have a HGA rating like Massey Ratings does? Or do you just flat it out as +12 no matter what?
It's because of the HGA, otherwise it would be a sizeable gap to Hawthorn, much more than is predicted.
Yeah that's a good point. Melbourne were horrific in 2013, an absolute train wreck, and it was embarrassing to lose to them.
The Falcon Strike
Hall of Famer
If you said to me we would finish with the 6th highest percentage - i could understand that
But not 6th on the ladder
Anyway that is my analytical side
Now comes my one eyed side
#ibelieveinsquiggle #westcoasthomefinal
LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
- 35,095
- 40,602
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Newcastle United Seattle Seahawks
People actually don't understand just how bad we were. We were lucky to win two games...the Doggies win was a fall-over-the-line job
Mark Neald might have had something to do with that. The rot had well and truly set in before then though.
LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
- 35,095
- 40,602
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Newcastle United Seattle Seahawks
Oh it had, don't get me wrong, but the sycophantic bleating of the football public that we 'weren't that bad' was defied by both onfield performance and statistics. For the first time I understood what it was like to see a footy club truly dead in the water.
Yellow Feathers
Norm Smith Medallist
Melbourne were horrific in 2013.
- Moderator
- #2,520
Horrific isn't strong enough. I was genuinely fearful of losing our football club.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
1996 was looking like a missed opportunity at one point during 2013.
If the squiggle has predicted the top four or five correctly, if you then look at the final five rounds of the season, its a bit like last year, out of 45 games, only 3 are opportunities for top 5 teams to take points off each other.
So five weeks out, the team who will finish third may have accepted that and be planning thus, eg when freo tanked a game successfully.
So five weeks out, the team who will finish third may have accepted that and be planning thus, eg when freo tanked a game successfully.
TennisPlayerAndy
Game #6 Klay
- Apr 1, 2008
- 57,657
- 101,558
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Liverpool, Raiders, GSW, QPR, NYM
Brisbane working their way off the graph.
west coast were said to be significantly better then the dogs?
are you sure you were reading the 2015 Pre-season predictions?
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